Today's Trainer Comparitive @AQU @Turf -- since April 2018!!!

[TheOracle]

Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive across the board returns per $2 win place and show wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/trnrstdyaqutrf.png

Obviously Brown is leading the pack with 12 wins but of course he puts out the most horses on the Turf at 33

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/browntrfaqusofar.png

His across the board return is only 8% but his win place return is 12.1% per $2 win place bet

He really hurt his percentages yesterday as his horses went 0 for 4 with only one 3rd place finish

I'm trying to figure out a good point scheme for Trainers to adjust for those who have more wins due to more attempts like Brown

C R McGaughey III and A E Goldberg look interesting from this list as Goldberg's horses have not been off the board in their last 5 attempts!!!

C R McGaughey III
4th race
#7 On Patrol
8th race
#2 Profiteer

Goldberg
6th race
#7 Absentee

Brown
8th race
6 Bricks and Mortar
9 Projected

Let's see how they do today on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

[bobphilo]

Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive across the board returns per $2 win place and show wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/trnrstdyaqutrf.png

Obviously Brown is leading the pack with 12 wins but of course he puts out the most horses on the Turf at 33

I'm trying to figure out a good point scheme for Trainers to adjust for those who have more wins due to more attempts like Brown



Thanks for posting this info.

Calculating a trainers win % should be easy. Just divide the number of winners by the number of horses he runs. The only problem would be when he enters multiple horses in a race, which Brown often does, since they're running against each other, that would make his win % too low. I'm sure there's a way to account for that but I can't recall it at the moment. You could count multiple entries in a race as one attempt but that would cause an opposite problem in making his win% too high as he has multiple tries to win. Maybe you could use both methods and then average the 2 averages.

[TheOracle]

Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive across the board returns per $2 win place and show wager

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/trnrstdyaqutrf.png

Obviously Brown is leading the pack with 12 wins but of course he puts out the most horses on the Turf at 33

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/browntrfaqusofar.png

His across the board return is only 8% but his win place return is 12.1% per $2 win place bet

He really hurt his percentages yesterday as his horses went 0 for 4 with only one 3rd place finish

I'm trying to figure out a good point scheme for Trainers to adjust for those who have more wins due to more attempts like Brown

C R McGaughey III and A E Goldberg look interesting from this list as Goldberg's horses have not been off the board in their last 5 attempts!!!

C R McGaughey III
4th race
#7 On Patrol
8th race
#2 Profiteer

Goldberg
6th race
#7 Absentee

Brown
8th race
6 Bricks and Mortar
9 Projected

Let's see how they do today on the Turf at Aqueduct!!!

There were no Turf races yesterday so the above will not qualify for the study

[TheOracle]

Thanks for posting this info.

Calculating a trainers win % should be easy. Just divide the number of winners by the number of horses he runs. The only problem would be when he enters multiple horses in a race, which Brown often does, since they're running against each other, that would make his win % too low. I'm sure there's a way to account for that but I can't recall it at the moment. You could count multiple entries in a race as one attempt but that would cause an opposite problem in making his win% too high as he has multiple tries to win. Maybe you could use both methods and then average the 2 averages.

Hey Bob

Yeah I was thinking for Trainers with 4 starts or better I would use their win percentage as part of their point total. In the case of Brown, he’s winning at a rate of 36.3% so his win point total would be 3.6 instead of giving 5 points for every win which in his case is (5 * 12) = 60 points and does not take into account that he had 33 entries to get those 12 wins

In this way, a Trainer would have to have a high win percentage to get the maximum points

I would keep the 5 points per win for Trainers with less than 4 entries total

I am still tweaking it to see what would be best

[TheOracle]

There were no Turf races yesterday so the above will not qualify for the study

Brown has these on the Turf today at Aqueduct


11-11-2018 4th race 2 Sweet Connie Girl (KY) Claiming One Mile C C Brown 2/1# Turf

11-11-2018 6th race 5 Brattata (KY) Allowance One Mile C C Brown 9/2# Turf
11-11-2018 6th race 8 Shalailah (IRE) Allowance One Mile C C Brown 5/1# Turf

11-11-2018 8th race 1 Regal Glory (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 3/1# Turf


C R McGaughey III has these on the Turf today


11-11-2018 4th race 6 Bidding Circle (KY) Claiming One Mile C R McGaughey III 12/1# Turf

11-11-2018 6th race 4 Initiate (KY) Allowance One Mile C R McGaughey III 15/1# Turf
11-11-2018 6th race 13 Pink Sands (KY) (MTO) Allowance One Mile C R McGaughey III 7/2# Turf


Goldberg has this on the Turf today at Aqueduct


11-11-2018 8th race 10 Introduced (MD) Stakes Six Furlongs A E Goldberg 4/1# Turf


Let’s see how they do today!!!

[TheOracle]

Brown has these on the Turf today at Aqueduct


11-11-2018 4th race 2 Sweet Connie Girl (KY) Claiming One Mile C C Brown 2/1# Turf

11-11-2018 6th race 5 Brattata (KY) Allowance One Mile C C Brown 9/2# Turf
11-11-2018 6th race 8 Shalailah (IRE) Allowance One Mile C C Brown 5/1# Turf

11-11-2018 8th race 1 Regal Glory (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 3/1# Turf


C R McGaughey III has these on the Turf today


11-11-2018 4th race 6 Bidding Circle (KY) Claiming One Mile C R McGaughey III 12/1# Turf

11-11-2018 6th race 4 Initiate (KY) Allowance One Mile C R McGaughey III 15/1# Turf
11-11-2018 6th race 13 Pink Sands (KY) (MTO) Allowance One Mile C R McGaughey III 7/2# Turf


Goldberg has this on the Turf today at Aqueduct


11-11-2018 8th race 10 Introduced (MD) Stakes Six Furlongs A E Goldberg 4/1# Turf


Let’s see how they do today!!!

Brown only had 1 winner today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/cbrowntdyaqu.png

#2 Sweet Connie Girl ran 2nd but the race was off the Turf and will not qualify for the study


McGaughey came through today with a nice show price!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mcgaugheyaqutrftdy.png

#4 Initiate paid $13.40 to show I usually only congratulate on wins however, congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!


Goldberg's horse #10 Introduced finished 2nd in the 8th race today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/goldbergaqutrftdy.png

It paid $7.60 across the board for a modest 26% return per $2 win place and show wager!!!

[TheOracle]

Since this post Brown has gone 1 for his last 7 on the Turf at Aqueduct

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/browntrfaqunov.png

However, let's still keep an eye on his barn on the Turf, I suspect his horses will do much better on a Firm Turf which has not happened for his horses in the month of November!!!

[TheOracle]

Brown has another Turfer in the 3rd race today at Aqueduct

3rd race
#13 Greyes Creek

Let's see if he can get this one to hit the board today at a price!!!