the fallacy: Don't bet a horse less than 4-1 odds

[fishorsechess]

You ever hear horseracing systems state don't
bet a horse "less than....." . The problem with
this is that it's almost IMPOSSIBLE to know what
the actual odds are going to be on a horse
when you bet because the odds change on
a minute by minute , second by second nature.
Also the longer you wait in line for the mutuel
window to bet the greater the chance you will
be shut out. This holds only if the horse's odds
is very close to the minimum acceptable. Obviously
if the horse is going off at generous odds you
don't have to worry.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I just like horses at higher payoff than its real chances of winning.
Handicapping value vs. risk; so to me the odds alone do not matter.

[so.cal.fan]

If you are a win bettor, and confine your bets to your top choices that happen to NOT be one of the first two choices on the ML.....you'll usually AVERAGE better than 4/1 on your winners.
At least that has been the case here in So. Cal.
We have pretty good line makers, so when you don't agree with them, you get paid well for your contrary opinion, when you are right!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Try Saturdays.

[andicap]

The rules, there are no rules on minimum odds.

What do your records say. That's the only rule you should follow.

If you bet a 1 minute to post at a minium of 4-1 and you're ahead it's working. If not, you've got to change your play.

As simple as that.

[JackS]

Unless you pretty good at developing an odds line, it's difficult to predict with any certainty weather a horse deserves the exact odds being offered. Generally we have to assume that all horses are over-rated because of the %age takeout.
I prefer to play with an eye on sceptisism towards the favorites. If the favorite appears to have legitimate compitition, a play against will always be the bet I make.
Favorites taken as a group, fail 2/3rds of the time(average) so, if you played against all favorites, you'd be right a majority of the time.
I personally do not play against all favorites. Some favorites do absoluty deserve their status and by my own estimation will win about 50pct. of the ones I play.
The only qualifier here- The favorite must be above 1/1. This should guarantee a possible longtime profit or minimal loss depending on your own skill level.
When we are burned by a favorite who appeared vulnerable, accept the loss with the knowledge that a win would have only been minimal anyway.

[keenang]

;)I THINK DOC SARTIN ONCE SAID ANY HORSE WHO WINS IS A VALUE (IF YOU BET HIM) CAN,T ARGUE WHIT THAT.
GENE

[Faster]

Originally posted by JackS
[I personally do not play against all favorites. Some favorites do absoluty deserve their status and by my own estimation will win about 50pct. of the ones I play.
The only qualifier here- The favorite must be above 1/1. This [/B]

Hmm, 50% WR @ 1:1 -- not a winning proposition, I don't think:confused:

[Faster]

Originally posted by keenang
;)I THINK DOC SARTIN ONCE SAID ANY HORSE WHO WINS IS A VALUE (IF YOU BET HIM) CAN,T ARGUE WHIT THAT.
GENE

Can and must.
Sure you met a guy who bet and won a superfecta -- unfortunately spent more money on the ticket than what was the payout.
Was it you?;)

[Faster]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by andicap
[B]The rules, there are no rules on minimum odds.

There is one.

"No horse deserves less than 1:1" :D

[Bill Cullen]

One of the things I look for in a good spot play are rules that help build the odds up so that you don't have to worry about the odds on any single horse at post time. If you test at least five hundred playable races and your average odds are 4/1 or higher, and 4/1 or higher is your goal, then the problem of the odds being too low at post time becomes a moot issue.

Bill C

[RXB]

I'll give you a good reason not to play horses at less than 4-1: they're the ones that get bet down at the last moment.

A good example just a couple of minutes ago: the 2-horse in the 4th at Monmouth looked like a total lone speed animal. Going to the gate it's 5/2, which would be a great price on the horse. But I don't bet these kind anymore because I know that the odds get clobbered at the last second (and maybe after the last second, but that's for another discussion).

Sure enough, they open the gates, it's 9/5. Down the backstretch, it drops to 7/5. And this happens all of the time.

[PSTfredk]

there is nothing that makes me madder than to see my horse go from 5/2 to 7/5 as they round the first turn. i know that some of that money came in after the race began i don't care what they
say at the tracks. i believe that all odds should be final when the horses leave the gate or better still when they load the first horse
at the very least we have a chance to get the right odds.
i think all tracks are guilty of this and it makes me wonder if the tracks are doing some beting. so much for that blow up on
betting but as the rest of the fools i'll be back saturday hoping
i beat the system.