I'm going to UNLOAD on Mendelssohn

[Buckeye]

on Saturday.

What do you think?

[thaskalos]

No. Save the $2 for a better spot.

[ldiatone]

yea, listen to Mozart

[098poi]

yea, listen to Mozart


:D

[Robert Fischer]

on Saturday.

What do you think?

I wonder what your reasoning is.

And I wish you luck.

And I wonder why the hell the NYRA linemaker made Rugbyman 2/1 and Noble Indy a higher 7/2?? Looks like they were handicapping their opinion instead of the public. -Betting against Noble Indy, perhaps with a horse like Rugbyman was one of the reasons to play the Dwyer. Now you've got social proof working the wrong way against a popular underlay...

[Robert Fischer]

And he made Catholic Boy 4th choice in the Belmont Derby ml ?? :bang::bang:


The morning line is supposed to set the table.


You don't ****ing correct for underlays.

[AJanks]

I wonder what your reasoning is.

And I wish you luck.

And I wonder why the hell the NYRA linemaker made Rugbyman 2/1 and Noble Indy a higher 7/2?? Looks like they were handicapping their opinion instead of the public. -Betting against Noble Indy, perhaps with a horse like Rugbyman was one of the reasons to play the Dwyer. Now you've got social proof working the wrong way against a popular underlay...

NYRA linemaker is David Aragona now for what it is worth. He took over during this winter if I remember correctly. I have noticed since then that he isn't afraid to make horses below 1-1 on the ML at AQU/BEL/SAR. Seems as if he isn't a conventional ML maker.

[Robert Fischer]

NYRA linemaker is David Aragona now for what it is worth. He took over during this winter if I remember correctly. I have noticed since then that he isn't afraid to make horses below 1-1 on the ML at AQU/BEL/SAR. Seems as if he isn't a conventional ML maker.

If it's really David Aragona I take back some of the harshness of my criticism. He is a smart guy, who I respect.

Not exactly the morning line I was hoping for when I looked at the form after seeing this thread, but I'm sure he knows how to make a line, and has had good mentors, and I'm sure he has a reasoning behind how he did what he did. :ThmbUp:

[TheOracle]

I wonder what your reasoning is.

And I wish you luck.

And I wonder why the hell the NYRA linemaker made Rugbyman 2/1 and Noble Indy a higher 7/2?? Looks like they were handicapping their opinion instead of the public. -Betting against Noble Indy, perhaps with a horse like Rugbyman was one of the reasons to play the Dwyer. Now you've got social proof working the wrong way against a popular underlay...


Since June 9th the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been winning at a 50% rate in Stakes races on both Dirt and Turf!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/belmlfavsstakesjunjly.png

I will be keeping a close watch on the linemaker's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 in Stakes races tomorrow!!!

[TheOracle]

I have also noticed a strange phenomenon where the linemaker's Morning Line Favorites ends in 5 and Brown is the Trainer on the Turf at Belmont

The last 16 times it happened Brown's horse finished 2nd 10 times, that's quite a number of Exacta's with his horse underneath!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/brownplaceparlytrfmlfav.png

I am not sure of the Exacta payouts but I would imagine they were very profitable!!!

He has a place parlay of 10 in a row in this situation if I didn't know any better I would say he's doing it on purpose!!!

At any rate, let's also keep eye on the 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on the Turf whenever Brown is the Trainer at Belmont!!!

[letswastemoney]

Mendelssohn's only proof of being proficient on dirt was the golden rail effort in Dubai, where the jockey urged him to the front.

He could win and live up to the hype, but he's hard to trust.

[Buckeye]

And he made Catholic Boy 4th choice in the Belmont Derby ml ?? :bang::bang:


The morning line is supposed to set the table.


You don't ****ing correct for underlays.

I hit Catholic Boy, so no disagreement there . . .

My brother claims Justify will never ever lose again because he's that good!

I suffer from JDS-- Justify Derangement Syndrome.

[Robert Fischer]

Mendelssohn is a good horse. I'm with Letswastemoney in that I don't know how good.

Maybe this race is a cakewalk for him. No world-beaters in the field.

[PhantomOnTour]

Not impressed with this field at all

[Suff]

Mendelssohn's only proof of being proficient on dirt was the golden rail effort in Dubai, where the jockey urged him to the front.

He could win and live up to the hype, but he's hard to trust.

I'm off . He is an Ungelded Funnycide.
He was a 50-1 nobody who ran 2nd to US Navy Flag in the 1st G1 Darley Dewhurst. US Navy Flag is since 0-5 and done nothing. He got a trip from God in BC JuvTurf. Freaked in Dubia and thats that.

Its Rugbyman. He spotted the field 3 lengths in the Easygoer. Ran wide as well.
The winner and 2nd place finisher from his first race, both came back and won next out.

They are putting Blinkers on to keep him focused. I have Rugyman by 3 lengths over anybody in here.

I predict Seahenge pass's Mendelssohn tommorrow.

[Tom]

I wonder what your reasoning is.

And I wish you luck.

And I wonder why the hell the NYRA linemaker made Rugbyman 2/1 and Noble Indy a higher 7/2?? Looks like they were handicapping their opinion instead of the public. -Betting against Noble Indy, perhaps with a horse like Rugbyman was one of the reasons to play the Dwyer. Now you've got social proof working the wrong way against a popular underlay...

Well, NI did just run a lowly 84 Beyer.......and it took him TWO RACES to do it! :pound:

[Tom]

Not impressed with this field at all

They should call it the Consolation Handicap - for those who sucked out in the big races.

[MONEY]

Velazquez is 2 for 3 on Noble Indy, so I'll take #4.

[TheOracle]

I'm going to UNLOAD on Mendelssohn
on Saturday.

What do you think?

I see Mendelssohn is 8-5 in the Morning Line so I took a look at Stakes races at Belmont for 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on the Dirt going back to May 6th, 2017

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/stakesfvrsdrt.png

They are winning at slightly under 50% (48.7% to be exact) and have been at the head of 19 Exactas

Then I peeled back a layer and looked at them when the Distance was 1 Mile or better and the results are absolutely phenomenal!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/stakesfvrsdrtmlovr.png

Morning Lines ending with 5 have won 15 of the last 20 races at 1 Mile or better including 7 in a row in Stakes races on the Dirt at Belmont

If Mendelssohn wins it will make it 8 in a row but I have my doubts

I can't prove this but from what I have seen whenever I see a trend getting close to 10, I start to have doubts (this doesn't apply for losing trends which seem to last forever)

At any rate, good luck may the trend be with you!!!

[AskinHaskin]

I'm going to UNLOAD on Mendelssohn
on Saturday.

What do you think?


Great!

Let fly on a trainer who is 2-for-59 lifetime on North American dirt.

(one of the pair having been Mendelssohn's grandsire)

[PaceAdvantage]

I wish the OP luck, but I wouldn't bet Mendelssohn in a million years in this race.

Much better value elsewhere.

:2: Seven Trumpets

and

:5: Fixedincome Larry

would be where my money would probably go...

Then again, I only look to bet on big price horses these days, and I lose a LOT. But when I win, it makes up for all the losses and then some.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

While it is 1 mile, it is an extended 6F sprint.


I'm with PA here. Stab at the generous odds on the :2::5: who are legit sprinters at a price. I just have a hard time really liking anything in here. If Mendy is a legit BC Classic horse, he should walk in here.

[Nutz and Boltz]

Firenze Fire is just as bad as the rest of them here. Won first time out and first time off layoff. Plus Jason Servis is hotter than a pistol, winning at a 48% clip. Why not ?

[Suff]

Its Rugbyman. He spotted the field 3 lengths in the Easygoer. Ran wide as well.
.

#6 Breaking the Rules, who also comes out of the EasyGoer, ran 2nd @9/5 in todays 2nd race at Belmont. The Winner, # 4 Gold For King went 114.8 ( 2 ticks off of Belmonts 6.5Furlong track record.

Breaking the Rules was 6th, beaten 5 lengths in the Easy Goer by Rugbyman who was 2nd, with a bad break and wide trip.

[clicknow]

Firenze Fire is just as bad as the rest of them here. Won first time out and first time off layoff. Plus Jason Servis is hotter than a pistol, winning at a 48% clip. Why not ?

6-1 on Firenze Fire is a good value

[PhantomOnTour]

Belmont playing fast today, turf and dirt...Noble Indy could be dangerous all the way around

[Tom]

Fast?
just went 108+ fraction in a turf route.

The hot air and sunshine must have dried the paint quickly.:lol:

[Tom]

Rugby Man looks good, but I won't touch him under 6-1.
Not a very talented field all in all.
This one paired up and can move ahead, but certainly not worth it at a low price.

[cj]

If Fixedincome Larry wins this race I'll eat my laptop. (After backing it up and with some cholula)

[Robert Fischer]

Rugby Man looks good, but I won't touch him under 6-1.
Not a very talented field all in all.
This one paired up and can move ahead, but certainly not worth it at a low price.

He's a trip horse, but it's based on the fault he displayed failing to change leads initially and then lugging in.

Betting a horse because he could/should correct a fault is not my favorite angle. Noble Indy was supposed to be lower than Rugbyman, and he is on the board thus far in the early betting.

:3:Rugbyman
and
:2:Seven Trumpets

are the two who seem playable to me on top.

:1:Seahenge can hit the board. Public has dismissed him which usually = value. That last race was a mess.

[Tom]

I'm wondering if being beaten by 73 and 1/4 lengths threw off Mendy's Beyer? How do we know that last 1/4 is valid? I bet if Moore persevered, he could finished within 72, certainly 73.

My system says "must have finished no less than 73 lengths last time out."



I'm taking a flier on the :1: who has been close to Mendy several times, and the fact there could well be a pace meltdown today.

3W9P $12 - hot dogs or steak tonight.

$5 Box :1::3::6:

[Robert Fischer]

Well, with Mendellsohn 3/5, you're supposed to box/dutch/use a few others

[clicknow]

wow, the feed is just so-0 bad from BEL

When I watch Hong Kong it's like High Def and I can see every hair on the horse.

I can barely tell anything watching the BEL feed

Using twinspires for both

Seahenge looks good. So does Mendie

[ldiatone]

:3: in this race w/ Felix

[PaceAdvantage]

If Fixedincome Larry wins this race I'll eat my laptop. (After backing it up and with some cholula)I'm betting :5::2::1: all to win.

Italian style.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm betting :5::2::1: all to win.

Italian style.Like I said, I lose a lot of races...:lol:

[clicknow]

6-1 on Firenze Fire is a good value

unfortunately went to 5/2 at post.

G1 winner gets it done.

[Robert Fischer]

That was wierd...

Firenze Fire had proven to be a bum, and today he ran like a Grade 1 horse once they hit the stretch.

I guess he has recovered from an injury that was hampering his past performances?

Man, that barn has done a great job lately.

[TiffaniO]

I’m thinking Mendy should’ve been pointed toward the Belmont Derby, that is unless he can find another dirt field with Rayya in it.

And somewhere LoneF has a lonely tear trickling down his face...

[Tom]

How convenient his odds dropped so low so late.
I am pretty sure he did not win on talent alone.

I doubt I will ever make another bet at NYRA.

[Tom]

Firenze Fire is just as bad as the rest of them here. Won first time out and first time off layoff. Plus Jason Servis is hotter than a pistol, winning at a 48% clip. Why not ?

Nice call.

Just is Servis using for a vet these days:rolleyes:?

[GMB@BP]

How convenient his odds dropped so low so late.
I am pretty sure he did not win on talent alone.

I doubt I will ever make another bet at NYRA.

I bet him well Tom, I think it was my 50 bucks that did it.

What a joke, horse ran out of his skin, like all Servis horses, the apple doesnt fall far from the tree.

[Tom]

You just have to know how to thread the needle......

[Robert Fischer]

How convenient his odds dropped so low so late.
I am pretty sure he did not win on talent alone.

I doubt I will ever make another bet at NYRA.

Was that one of those last second drops?

I didn't notice that he was 2nd choice and that and 5/2 was a huge surprise to me.
Wasn't watching the board, but would not surprise if it was a late drop.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Wow.


2nd/3rd string 3YOs and Mendy gets whipped.


They had a lot of faith in him as being legit and doing a run up to the BC Classic.


O'brien simply has no idea how to run a horse on an American dirt track. Zero.



Ship the pretender out of here. Immediately.

[clicknow]

Wow.


2nd/3rd string 3YOs and Mendy gets whipped.


They had a lot of faith in him as being legit and doing a run up to the BC Classic.


O'brien simply has no idea how to run a horse on an American dirt track. Zero.



Ship the pretender out of here. Immediately.


I'd ship Noble Indy out, actually.

[TiffaniO]

on Saturday.

What do you think?

Guess the chamber is empty?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'd ship Noble Indy out, actually.


:pound:



They can be mates.

[PhantomOnTour]

Servis with a smile
unreal

[Suff]

This is some serious horse racing today.

[clicknow]

happy to see limosine liberal finally win in NY

[Tom]

This is some serious horse racing today.

What tracks?

[Nutz and Boltz]

Nice call.

Just is Servis using for a vet these days:rolleyes:?


A bet on Servis' horses has been money in the bank all this year, all over the east coast. He had 5 winners in two days just at Monmouth Park last weekend.For some trainers, that's a years worth. :D

[SandyW]

Was that one of those last second drops?

I didn't notice that he was 2nd choice and that and 5/2 was a huge surprise to me.
Wasn't watching the board, but would not surprise if it was a late drop.

He went from 5/1 to 5/2 after the horses ran a quarter of a mile.

Somebody pounded it home, that is for sure.

[Tom]

Unload hell, I would like to lock and load.

[Suff]

What tracks?
;) Put # 9, Fatale Bere on a couple of tickets here in race 8.

[TheOracle]

6-1 on Firenze Fire is a good value

Hey Click

Did you score bro?

[AskinHaskin]

O'brien simply has no idea how to run a horse on an American dirt track. Zero.





What do you mean?


O'brien has run sixty of them.


Interesting comparison, for indeed O'Brien's futility reminds one of Nick Zero, who is good as they come at merely running them in the Derby.


Neither one seems to have any concept (any more, at least) as to the actual goal known to others.

[Buckeye]

Guess the chamber is empty?

What can I say?

He folded up like a cheap suit!

It happens.

[TheOracle]

What can I say?

He folded up like a cheap suit!

It happens.

I see Mendelssohn is 8-5 in the Morning Line so I took a look at Stakes races at Belmont for 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) on the Dirt going back to May 6th, 2017

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/stakesfvrsdrt.png

They are winning at slightly under 50% (48.7% to be exact) and have been at the head of 19 Exactas

Then I peeled back a layer and looked at them when the Distance was 1 Mile or better and the results are absolutely phenomenal!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/stakesfvrsdrtmlovr.png

Morning Lines ending with 5 have won 15 of the last 20 races at 1 Mile or better including 7 in a row in Stakes races on the Dirt at Belmont

If Mendelssohn wins it will make it 8 in a row but I have my doubts

I can't prove this but from what I have seen whenever I see a trend getting close to 10, I start to have doubts (this doesn't apply for losing trends which seem to last forever)

At any rate, good luck may the trend be with you!!!

Hey Buck

I probably announcer’s jinxed it as it would have been 8 wins in a row for the Morning Line Favorite ending with 5 in that situation hahaha lol!!!

I was rooting for you though!!!

[Afleet]

happy to see limosine liberal finally win in NY

has to be the best 7F horse out there-he was much the best. Had 3 horses in the next race singled to LL in the double and of course missed the next-so cashed nothing. Had a bad weekend :puke:

[clicknow]

I always kinda liked Firenze Fire....a real Cinderella story. Owner paid a $4,000 stud fee to breed Poseidon's Warrior with a filly he claimed for $16,000---- and got a G1 winner out of it.....for a total of $20K breeding investment. (Servis tried to talk him out of this).

+I have no problem calling a horse who cost $500K+ a bum when they don't accomplish much, but a horse who has outrun their pedigree/purchase price, I have nothing but admiration for??

If you look at his history, only My Boy Jack worked/raced more furlongs than FF did in 2018, so Servis didn't have him sitting around in the barn.

FF comes from the immediate family of Promises Fulfilled’s sire, Shackleford---his grand dam is a full sister to Oatsee, a Broodmare of the Year and one that always makes me sit up and listen. Before the KY Derby Jon White gave him only 2 knocks, but he runs best at 1-1/16th and below, is inconsistent, and kinda slow. Out of the bunch that was in this particular race, certainly not the worse horse in the field.......has some chops.