Run on graphics cards....shortage

[JustRalph]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/01/cryptocurrency-boom-creates-insane-global-graphics-card-shortage/

Amazing.........I was just ready to purchase a new machine and the processor problem appeared.....and now this

[AltonKelsey]

Pure insanity

[Jeff P]

Definitely a shortage of high end graphics cards.

But imo, the reason for the shortage isn't cryptocurrency mining.

I say that because I have a contact who works for a tech startup in Silicon Valley.

He tells me that maybe 3% to (at most) 5% of all high end graphics cards produced are being sold to cryptocurrency miners --

He also tells me the biggest market segment for high end graphics cards remains pc gaming --

And that the fastest growing market segment for high end graphics cards is actually tech startups like the one he works for.

They have a data center with as many servers as will fit in the floor space - and he says every server in there is stuffed to the gills with the newest Nvidia GPUs.

Fyi, the company he works for doesn't have a salable product yet.

He says in fact they may never have a salable product --

Because they are one of MANY startups funded by VC money trying to develop AI/deep learning --

And that nearly all the startups are in the same boat --

If it becomes apparent a startup has made some sort of breakthrough: That startup can expect more VC funding (a lot more in fact.)

Conversely, if it becomes apparent a startup has fallen too far behind the others: That startup can expect VC money to dry up.

All of that said, I feel ya --

Because I'm thinking about a machine with a high end graphics card too.



-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

I've been hearing about mining and GPUs for quite a while now...well before this most recent article and shortage. I believe it is indeed a big factor...

[AltonKelsey]

I tried to find a figure for miners and the gpu market but could not . Everyone talks around it.

I do find 3-5% hard to believe.

[Jeff P]

Edited Transcript of NVDA earnings conference call or presentation 9-Nov-17 10:00pm GMT:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-nvda-earnings-conference-054046030.html

Colette M. Kress, NVIDIA Corporation - Executive VP & CFO [3]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks, Simona. We had an excellent quarter with record revenue in each of our 4 market platforms. And every measure of profit hit record levels, reflecting the leverage of our model. Data center revenue of $501 million more than doubled from a year ago and the strong adoption of our Volta platform and early traction with our inferencing portfolio.

Q3 revenue reached $2.64 billion, up 32% from a year earlier, up 18% sequentially and well above our outlook of $2.35 billion. From a reporting segment perspective, GPU revenue grew 31% from last year to $2.22 billion. Tegra processor revenue rose 74% to $419 million.

Let's start with our gaming business. Gaming revenue was $1.56 billion, up 25% year-on-year and up 32% sequentially. We saw robust demand across all regions and form factors. Our Pascal-based GPUs remained the platform of choice for gamers as evidenced by our strong demand for GeForce GTX 10-Series products. We introduced the GeForce GTX 1070 Ti, which became available last week. It complements our strong holiday lineup ranging from the entry-level GTX 1050 to our flagship GTX 1080 Ti.

Doing some math based on the transcript of Nvidia's most recent quarterly earnings conference call after close of market Nov 9, 2017:

For the quarter:

GPU revenue: $2.22 billion

GPU stands for Graphics Processing Unit (which is what we are talking about in this thread.)

Gaming revenue: $1.56 billion or approx 70.27% (calculated as 1.56/2.22 = 0.7027)

Data center revenue: $501 million or approx 22.57% (calculated as 0.501/2.22 = 0.22568)

Those two areas accounted for roughly 92.84% of Nvidia's GPU sales for the quarter.

That leaves approx 7.16% to be split among Nvidia's other/remaining market segments.

My understanding is that the two largest of these other/remaining market segments are GPU's sold to cryptocurrency miners followed by GPU's sold to the self driving car space.



All of that said, here's a link to an article that came out on Nov 10, 2017 (the day after Nvidia's most recent earnings call.)

Cryptocurrency Mining Sales Cool in Q3, Says Nvidia:
https://www.coindesk.com/cryptocurrency-mining-chip-sales-cool-q3-says-nvidia/

The company released its third-quarter results on Nov. 9. Among the notable data points, per Bloomberg: revenue for cryptocurrency mining-related products came in at $70 million, a decline from $150 million during the second quarter.

and:
Huang added:

"For some time, we’re going to see that crypto will be a small, but not zero, part of our business."

If sales for cryptocurrency mining-related products for the quarter came in at $70 million --

And if total GPU sales for the quarter came in at $2.22 billion --

That means, for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2017, sales for cryptocurrency mining-related products were just 3.15% of total GPU sales.



-jp

.

[AltonKelsey]

Well then, if all that is accurate, then the stories about miners cleaning out the shelves is nonsense.

If that's case, why the shortage?

Makes no sense to me, but that happens a lot lately.

[PaceAdvantage]

All the above was before bitcoin hit $20k....now that it's fallen back down, maybe the cards will return to the shelves...

[Jeff P]

Let's try this again...

Edited Transcript of NVDA earnings conference call or presentation 9-Nov-17 10:00pm GMT:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edite...054046030.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Colette M. Kress, NVIDIA Corporation - Executive VP & CFO [3]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks, Simona. We had an excellent quarter with record revenue in each of our 4 market platforms. And every measure of profit hit record levels, reflecting the leverage of our model. Data center revenue of $501 million more than doubled from a year ago and the strong adoption of our Volta platform and early traction with our inferencing portfolio.

Q3 revenue reached $2.64 billion, up 32% from a year earlier, up 18% sequentially and well above our outlook of $2.35 billion. From a reporting segment perspective, GPU revenue grew 31% from last year to $2.22 billion. Tegra processor revenue rose 74% to $419 million.

Let's start with our gaming business. Gaming revenue was $1.56 billion, up 25% year-on-year and up 32% sequentially. We saw robust demand across all regions and form factors. Our Pascal-based GPUs remained the platform of choice for gamers as evidenced by our strong demand for GeForce GTX 10-Series products. We introduced the GeForce GTX 1070 Ti, which became available last week. It complements our strong holiday lineup ranging from the entry-level GTX 1050 to our flagship GTX 1080 Ti.


Take a second look at the bolded part of the above quote.

The Data Center space is where sales of Nvidia GPUs is experiencing the most growth.

I think the reason this is so is because right now it's "race on" in the development of AI/deep learning arena -- and at least right now -- Nvidia GPUs are a big part of that.

I suspect the shortage of high end GPUs on the shelves is because demand for GPUs in the Data Center space for the quarter just ended (but not yet reported) may have caught Nvidia by surprise.

We'll know in a few weeks when they report earnings again.


-jp

.

[lamboguy]

Let's try this again...

Edited Transcript of NVDA earnings conference call or presentation 9-Nov-17 10:00pm GMT:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edite...054046030.html




Take a second look at the bolded part of the above quote.

The Data Center space is where sales of Nvidia GPUs is experiencing the most growth.

I think the reason this is so is because right now it's "race on" in the development of AI/deep learning arena -- and at least right now -- Nvidia GPUs are a big part of that.

I suspect the shortage of high-end GPUs on the shelves is because demand for GPUs in the Data Center space for the quarter just ended (but not yet reported) may have caught Nvidia by surprise.

We'll know in a few weeks when they report earnings again.


-jp

.deep learning artificial intelligence is the hottest sector right now. other company's that are involved in that type of chips are Qualcomm and Bosch. there must be some smaller companies as well that i don't know much about.

[Stevecsd]

Why the heck are they putting high end expensive video cards in SERVERS?

I worked as an I.S. (information systems) manager for nine years. I would have been fired for doing that.

On many servers the monitor and video are not used very much.
That is a huge waste of money. Their CIO needs to review this. If he/she approved they need to be fired for wasting company money.

:confused:

[Jeff P]

The servers that are running AI/deep learning algorithms in the data centers I described (above) are configured to use a completely different info model than what you are describing --

Under a Standard Info Model --

• Just about everything is executed by the CPU - including requests from the server's operating system - plus requests from all of the users/visitors browsing all of the sites that are hosted on the server.

This info model works well if you are running standard or non-AI/deep learning programs on the server.

The programs being run are executing tasks such as verifying logon credentials, managing session state of site visitors, performing mathematical calculations, retrieving files, overwriting files, rendering requested web pages, reading data from databases, writing data to databases, and performing automated backups, etc.

Generally, this works rather well because the CPU is perfectly capable of handling all of the requests being made.

But this standard info model doesn't work so well if the number of requests rises beyond a certain point. If that happens - and a good example might be a DOS or denial of service attack: The CPU reaches a point where it simply cannot keep up with all of the new requests coming in -- and the server slows to a crawl.

This standard info model also doesn't work so well if the server's primary purpose is to run AI/deep learning algorithms.

Don't get me wrong - under a standard info model where everything is executed by the CPU:

The server is perfectly capable of running AI/deep learning algorithms -- just not quickly.


Why use High End GPUs? --

• High end GPUs are faster and more powerful than a CPU. They are able to process a greater number of decisions/transactions per second than a CPU.

• The AI/deep learning algorithms researchers are working on are often called upon to process a LOT more transactions/calculations before reaching a simple classification decision (such as 0 or 1) than non-AI/deep learning algorithms.

For these two reasons, pretty early on, researchers working on AI discovered that GPUs are better than CPUs for running AI/deep learning algorithms.

Once chip makers like AMD, Intel, Nvidia, and others realized that - they began working on GPUs designed specifically for AI.

Somewhere along the way - Nvidia began snatching up market share from AMD and Intel in this new space -- Imo because they've been cranking out GPUs with specs that are far and away superior to those made by AMD and Intel. (That doesn't mean AMD or Intel or someone else couldn't announce a major breakthrough tomorrow. But right now as I type this Nvidia is the clear leader in this space.)



Alternate Info Model --

The servers in the data centers I described in my previous post (above) are configured in such a way that nearly all of the requests being made by the AI/deep learning algorithms are executed by banks of High End GPUs - instead of by the CPU.

As a result the AI/deep learning algorithms are running at max possible speed (up to the limits imposed by the latest available technology.)

Hope I managed to type most of that out in a way that makes sense,



-jp

.

[headhawg]

Clearly the GPUs are not being used for video. GPUs are being used because they are better at certain math processes than a CPU. In the case of cryptocurrency mining, GPUs are on the order of 80x faster than a CPU when is comes to solving the transaction blocks. For bitcoin mining, an ASIC miner is better. But other cryptocurrencies (like Ethereum) are processed more quickly using GPUs. So depending on the algorithm, a GPU can be much better suited to the task than a CPU.

[JustRalph]

Clearly the GPUs are not being used for video. GPUs are being used because they are better at certain math processes than a CPU. In the case of cryptocurrency mining, GPUs are on the order of 80x faster than a CPU when is comes to solving the transaction blocks. For bitcoin mining, an ASIC miner is better. But other cryptocurrencies (like Ethereum) are processed more quickly using GPUs. So depending on the algorithm, a GPU can be much better suited to the task than a CPU.

Ding!

Good stuff from Jeff too👍

[AltonKelsey]

Don't know why anyone would think that the crypto craze isn't driving a lot of the sales.

Saw this report today and hearing of an AMD card (the Radeon 56) listing for $ 399, selling for $999+ (at retail, not just ebay) and flying off the shelf.

These cards are better investments than the sh*tcoins




Analysts suggested the popularity of mining for ether, the cryptocurrency running on the Ethereum network (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-nvidia-stocks-rise-after-morgan-stanley-says-ethereum-rally-will-help-results-2018-01-23), drove sales of graphics chips from AMD and Nvidia Corp. NVDA, (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda?mod=MW_story_quote) more than the companies were letting on (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-gains-as-ethereum-mining-benefit-touted-2018-01-18) in the fourth quarter.

[JustRalph]

Just followed a link to this

[PaceAdvantage]

I have a 1080TI...thinking I should just shut my PC down, pull it out, and sell the card...LMAO

[JustRalph]

I have a 1080TI...thinking I should just shut my PC down, pull it out, and sell the card...LMAO

You probably could.


https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p2380057.m570.l1313.TR12.TRC2.A0.H0.X1080t i.TRS0&_nkw=1080ti&_sacat=0

[Jeff P]

Don't know why anyone would think that the crypto craze isn't driving a lot of the sales.

Saw this report today and hearing of an AMD card (the Radeon 56) listing for $ 399, selling for $999+ (at retail, not just ebay) and flying off the shelf.

These cards are better investments than the sh*tcoins




Analysts suggested the popularity of mining for ether, the cryptocurrency running on the Ethereum network (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-nvidia-stocks-rise-after-morgan-stanley-says-ethereum-rally-will-help-results-2018-01-23), drove sales of graphics chips from AMD and Nvidia Corp. NVDA, (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda?mod=MW_story_quote) more than the companies were letting on (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-gains-as-ethereum-mining-benefit-touted-2018-01-18) in the fourth quarter.


I dunno.

I've been an Nvidia shareholder for a while now. Because of that I've gotten into the habit of listening to their quarterly earnings conference calls and reading the transcripts afterwards.

That's one of the reasons I knew that their GPU revenue in the cryptocurrency space was only about 3% of their total GPU revenue for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2017. (My contact who works for a startup in Silicon Valley being the other.)

If that's changed, if sales of GPUs in the cryptocurrency space have shot up as reported by the articles you linked to --

I will happily admit I was wrong.

Nvidia is next scheduled to report earnings on Feb 8th. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-sets-conference-call-fourth-220000222.html)

We'll know for sure then.


-jp

.

[AltonKelsey]

Thing is, at only 3 or 5% , I don't think you'd see a tripling of the price of cards, UNLESS the gpu makers were way behind the curve in terms of output, driven by a chip shortage or bad planning.

[Jeff P]

AMD reported earnings after close of market today and their numbers shed some light on what's being talked about in this thread.

From Marketwatch - Jan 30, 2018 --
AMD earnings show crypto and PC strength, stock bounces around:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-earnings-outlook-top-street-estimates-but-shares-shaky-after-hours-anyway-2018-01-30

--this
Revenue rose to $1.48 billion from $1.11 billion in the year-ago period, thanks to a strong performance from the company’s computing and graphics segment, which includes personal-computer sales and graphics-processing units. That unit grew 60% year-over-year to $958 million, easily eclipsing average analyst expectations of $862.5 million, according to FactSet.

--and this:
Some analysts had predicted that AMD could outperform with graphics chips because of sales of cryptocurrency miners, and AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su admitted Tuesday that crypto sales were a bigger part of the business than she had previously predicted. Su previously said that crypto sales were a mid-single-digit percentage of AMD’s annual revenue of $5.33 billion, and she admitted in a conference call that sales were probably about a percentage point higher than she thought.

If I'm reading the article right:

AMD experienced 60% sales growth in the GPU space. (Impressive.)

But even though sales in the cryptocurrency space came in better than expected: The cryptocurrency space remains a small part percentage-wise of AMD's overall business.


Nvidia reports on Feb 8th and I'm curious what their GPU numbers will look like compared to AMD's numbers.

I found an article that sheds some light as to why I think the GPU shortage is resulting from faster than expected growth in the AI space and not the cryptocurrency space (which I think is being sensationalized by the press.)

From Wallstreetpit - Jan 25, 2018 --
AI Generates High-Performing Neural Nets In A Matter of Hours:
http://wallstreetpit.com/114462-ai-generates-high-performing-neural-nets/?google_editors_picks=true

--this:
The team at ORNL is looking forward to the lab’s next supercomputer called Summit, scheduled to come online sometime this year. The new superfast system, which will contain more than 27,000 of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) newest Volta GPUs in addition to more than 9,000 IBM Power9 CPUs, is expected to deliver more than 5x the performance of its predecessor. That could potentially deliver exascale-level performance for deep learning problems, thus allowing researchers get a handle on some of science’s most persistent mysteries.

Think about that for a second.

One computer. 27,000 GPUs and 9,000 CPUs.



-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

If I'm reading the article right:

AMD experienced 60% sales growth in the GPU space. (Impressive.)

But AMD had previously said sales in the cryptocurrency space were a mid-single-digit percentage of AMD’s annual revenue - but admitted that that sales were probably about a percentage point higher than she thought.


Nvidia reports on Feb 8th and I'm curious what their GPU numbers will look like compared to AMD's numbers.

I found an article that sheds some light as to why I think the GPU shortage is resulting from the AI space and not the cryptocurrency space (which I think is being sensationalized by the press.)

From Wallstreetpit - Jan 25, 2018 --
AI Generates High-Performing Neural Nets In A Matter of Hours:
http://wallstreetpit.com/114462-ai-generates-high-performing-neural-nets/?google_editors_picks=true

--this:


Think about that for a second.

One computer. 27,000 GPUs and 9,000 CPUs.



-jp

.I don't see why this wouldn't be what is causing the retail run on GPUs (crypto mining). I mean, the above says it itself. These things were MADE for mining cryptocurrency, and it's been one of the hottest topics as bitcoin rose to the $20,000 mark...how is it inconceivable that there was a mad rush to buy up these higher-end cards and that's what caused the shortage and the price gouging?

[Jeff P]

Spend some time looking at numbers reported by Nvidia and AMD over the past few quarters.

Yes, it's true. The cryptocurrency space is growing. Despite that, crypto is still just a tiny part percentage-wise of total GPU sales.

The mad rush for high end GPUs is in the much bigger AI space. (Which the press isn't sensationalizing nearly so much as cryptocurrency.)


-jp

.

[Jeff P]

Some interesting comments by Cramer after AMD reported earnings yesterday:
https://vid.thestreet.com/p/105/sp/0/playManifest/protocol/https/entryId/0_y23o477w/format/url/flavorParamId/35/video.mp4



-jp

.

[AltonKelsey]

Think about that for a second.

One computer. 27,000 GPUs and 9,000 CPUs.


Didn't know things had gotten so out of hand.

Wonder if it can pick a winner...

[Jeff P]

Found an article that goes into detail about what's being talked about in this thread.

from SeekingAlpha|Jan. 29, 2018 8:51 PM ET --
Crypto Mining Could Be Playing Games With Nvidia:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4141078-crypto-mining-playing-games-nvidia?auth_param=1elu10:1d75ng1:5dbdd8d30a5092298 d90f51410282782&uprof=66&dr=1

--this:
Graphics card manufacturing problems
Multiple contacts within our global supply chain are saying the shortage of cards is because of a shortage of memory (http://www.game-debate.com/news/24302/graphics-card-prices-expected-to-rise-20-in-q1-2018-due-to-ram-shortage-and-pubg-demand) used on the cards.

--and this:
Right now, there is more demand than supply. There is unmet demand from both gamers and miners. The relevant question is whether supply has contracted or demand has exploded. Supply is not meeting demand, so it has to be because of one of the following reasons:

Manufacturing bottlenecks at the card level
Tremendous demand from crypto miners
Shortages of key components like graphic memory

If it is because of manufacturing bottlenecks, that explains everything. That would be bad short term for Nvidia, due to the current reliance the company has on the gaming segment to fund the "stepping stones" for its future growth initiatives in AI, cloud data centers, and automotive.

If it is because of miner demand, it is not from Europe or the Americas, because the cards are just not arriving, unless it is through the deep black market. If it is miner demand, it is coming from Asia, and that is also not good for Nvidia, as it means the gaming markets in NA and Europe are left high and dry. Many gamers on message boards are already posting comments with the general theme of "miners must die".

If it is because of a GDDR5 memory shortage, that is good for a company like Micron, as it means the company is selling as much as it can make at prices favorable to it. Obviously, this is temporally not a good scenario for Nvidia.

So if crypto mining is off the charts, balls to walls, driving demand for Nvidia GeForce GPUs, it is an Asian phenomenon.






-jp

.

[JustRalph]

https://www.polygon.com/2018/1/26/16936984/graphics-card-gpu-prices-nvidia-amd-cryptocurrency-mining-stores

Micro center trying to protect gamers......

I used to work for these guys.......good company

[vegasone]

Nvidia reports record revenues in latest fiscal quarter

But cryptocurrency not growing for the GPU giants



The only area where growth was “approximately flat” was cryptocurrency, an area where people are increasingly turning to custom ASIC chips. Nvidia said it managed to “meet some demand,” but the change was “difficult to quantify.”


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/02/09/nvidia_reports_record_revenues_in_latest_fiscal_qu arter/http://

[RunForTheRoses]

Crypto-currency craze 'hinders search for alien life' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43056744

[JustRalph]

Get out your credit cards for a new generation

https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/20/17758724/nvidia-geforce-rtx-2080-specs-pricing-release-date-features