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View Full Version : Thoughts on Maiden Win / Bounce Plays?


FlintAtTheFetlock
11-11-2017, 02:33 PM
Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks

lamboguy
11-11-2017, 03:12 PM
Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanksi don't have any data on this, but seems to me that its as good a way to go as any as long as you are consistent with it.

Robert Fischer
11-13-2017, 11:15 AM
Looks like a neat angle, especially when it particularly suits the horse in question.

I'd love to get a square price on an improving young horse (or at least someone who did some actual running in the maiden-breaking win), who maybe 'bounced' in a tougher spot(class, pace, distance, etc...) following the maiden score, than in today's race.

I'm not crazy about it when a horse was a long-time maiden who finally got his trip/weak.field, or when today's race is a tougher spot.

One red flag that I try to avoid is horses who had to change things drastically to break their maiden. For example, you sometimes see a mediocre presser/stalker horse who is then stretched-out to a turf route, and then he breaks his maiden setting a moderate pace, wire-to-wire. A horse like this is unlikely to face a similar scenario unless he drops several classes as a winner.

CincyHorseplayer
11-13-2017, 05:12 PM
Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks

I think in general after a win there is no exertion by the connections to push a horse to win again. If they don't match up on paper they are done to me. The double kiss of death! And if they ship to a better circuit you see some especially timid and lame rides.

Robert Fischer
11-16-2017, 01:14 PM
Penn National today r1

:5: Common Denominator looks like she may go off at a good enough price to consider as a key for each slot of the tri. She should be involved. The final green/red decision will come down to her odds vs. the 7,8,4 (I expect :3: to be favored, but the 5's value is dependent on 478).

:5: Common Denominator broke her maiden 2-back, in her second consecutive good effort. She's taken some money as a maiden indicating at least decent/mediocre talent. She has a habit of willingly improving position on the backstretch. Last race she face winners for the first time at this same class, and had a wide trip. She made her middle move and ran well enough.

The :3: appears to be the best in the race and will be favored. She has flashy paper form. It's not certain that she is much the best, but there is a real possibility that she is.

:4: is the wildcard. She should be involved early, but would need to find more, in order to somehow best the 5. I'm leaning against the :4: on top today.
I'm leaning against the :8: in the top spots today. I love that she finished 2nd vs this group last time while tripping-out, and that she draws wider today.

Whosonfirst
11-16-2017, 02:49 PM
Penn National today r1

:5: Common Denominator looks like she may go off at a good enough price to consider as a key for each slot of the tri. She should be involved. The final green/red decision will come down to her odds vs. the 7,8,4 (I expect :3: to be favored, but the 5's value is dependent on 478).

:5: Common Denominator broke her maiden 2-back, in her second consecutive good effort. She's taken some money as a maiden indicating at least decent/mediocre talent. She has a habit of willingly improving position on the backstretch. Last race she face winners for the first time at this same class, and had a wide trip. She made her middle move and ran well enough.

The :3: appears to be the best in the race and will be favored. She has flashy paper form. It's not certain that she is much the best, but there is a real possibility that she is.

:4: is the wildcard. She should be involved early, but would need to find more, in order to somehow best the 5. I'm leaning against the :4: on top today.
I'm leaning against the :8: in the top spots today. I love that she finished 2nd vs this group last time while tripping-out, and that she draws wider today.
Will the :3: be carrying 130 lbs.?

Robert Fischer
11-16-2017, 03:29 PM
Will the :3: be carrying 130 lbs.?

what?

Whosonfirst
11-16-2017, 03:51 PM
what?

Robert, looking at the class drop I was being facetious.

Robert Fischer
11-16-2017, 04:07 PM
If you think 3's a lock, then consider the 5 vs the 1478. If you happen to agree that the 5 is a contender who is better than all but the 3, and the public happens to ignore the 5, then maybe you have a chance to get better odds on the 3 with an exacta or tri that uses the 5 underneath...

I can see that the 3 dwarfs the field on paper. Just look at the NY form that jumps off the page. She's probably much the best. There's a little bit of 'unknown' mixed in, given that a nonthreatening effort on poly @ PID, and the turf @LRL could possibly be hiding any issues or regression that may be going on (I wouldn't bridge jump this one). But she's the most likely winner and should be heavily favored.

Whosonfirst
11-16-2017, 05:41 PM
It'a a bottom level claimer, I don't consider any horse a lock. Like you said it'a a paper game until the gate opens. It will be interesting to see what the tote reveals if anything. As I mentioned was being facetious with the 130 number, maybe 125 was more in line.

Whosonfirst
11-16-2017, 05:56 PM
If you think 3's a lock, then consider the 5 vs the 1478. If you happen to agree that the 5 is a contender who is better than all but the 3, and the public happens to ignore the 5, then maybe you have a chance to get better odds on the 3 with an exacta or tri that uses the 5 underneath...

I can see that the 3 dwarfs the field on paper. Just look at the NY form that jumps off the page. She's probably much the best. There's a little bit of 'unknown' mixed in, given that a nonthreatening effort on poly @ PID, and the turf @LRL could possibly be hiding any issues or regression that may be going on (I wouldn't bridge jump this one). But she's the most likely winner and should be heavily favored.

Looks like Johnny Bogar agrees with you. I like the 6.

Robert Fischer
11-16-2017, 06:02 PM
dumb or smart here's what i got


cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$2 Win 5 none $2.00
-
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$5 Show 5 none $5.00
-
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$0.50 Trifecta 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, WT, 5 none $6.00
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$1 Exacta BX, 1, 3, 4, 5 none $12.00
-
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$2 Exacta 3, WT, 5 none $2.00
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$0.50 Pick-3 5, WT, 1, 2, 3, 5, WT, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 none $10.00

Robert Fischer
11-16-2017, 06:05 PM
Looks like Johnny Bogar agrees with you. I like the 6.

your 6 was the play

longest shot on the board and 2nd

the lock , and the wise guy 5 didn't do much



I needed the 5 to beat the 8 for the trifecta... no dice

FlintAtTheFetlock
11-19-2017, 02:18 PM
Spotted :5: Moxie in Race 7 today at GPW. Fits the profile what I like to see. Very dull last time out after breaking maiden, Let's see if she snaps back today.

thaskalos
11-19-2017, 07:12 PM
Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks
Your MWBR angle needs to be refined to exclude the maiden-claimer winners. When a maiden claimer gets trounced in its first race against winners...it isn't because the horse "bounced". It's because the maiden claimers bear no resemblance to the regular claimers of the same dollar denomination.

A $10,000 maiden claimer wins its race while earning a comparatively-impressive speed figure...and the trainer, getting encouraged by the performance, enters the horse against $10,000 straight claimers next out. I don't care what the speed figures say, this horse is going to get TROUNCED next race...and the "bounce" factor has nothing to do with it. The maiden-claiming winners are totally incapable of reproducing the figures that they've run in the maiden-claimers, when they step up to face the horses who have been competing in straight-claimers. They need a steep drop in class in order to continue to compete effectively.

cj
11-19-2017, 07:28 PM
Your MWBR angle needs to be refined to exclude the maiden-claimer winners. When a maiden claimer gets trounced in its first race against winners...it isn't because the horse "bounced". It's because the maiden claimers bear no resemblance to the regular claimers of the same dollar denomination.

A $10,000 maiden claimer wins its race while earning a comparatively-impressive speed figure...and the trainer, getting encouraged by the performance, enters the horse against $10,000 straight claimers next out. I don't care what the speed figures say, this horse is going to get TROUNCED next race...and the "bounce" factor has nothing to do with it. The maiden-claiming winners are totally incapable of reproducing the figures that they've run in the maiden-claimers, when they step up to face the horses who have been competing in straight-claimers. They need a steep drop in class in order to continue to compete effectively.

Pretty rare one of these shows up against straight claimers these days. The jump to NW2 isn't nearly as steep.

thaskalos
11-19-2017, 07:36 PM
Pretty rare one of these shows up against straight claimers these days. The jump to NW2 isn't nearly as steep.

They need a 50% drop in class even in the NW2 races, IMO.

cj
11-19-2017, 11:23 PM
They need a 50% drop in class even in the NW2 races, IMO.

I'll test that out and get back to you. That used to be conventional wisdom for straight claimers, seems a bit steep for NW2.

thaskalos
11-20-2017, 12:35 AM
I'll test that out and get back to you. That used to be conventional wisdom for straight claimers, seems a bit steep for NW2.

Would you please separate the sprints from the routes? I've always wondered what the distance difference is in this aspect.

jay68802
11-20-2017, 12:44 AM
I will play horses like this as long as they pressed a high pace in the maiden win. No wire to wire winners. And then in the next race they have to finish in the top half of the field and were less than 6 lengths from the lead at the finish, minimum odds of 7-1.

Whosonfirst
11-20-2017, 06:41 AM
I'll test that out and get back to you. That used to be conventional wisdom for straight claimers, seems a bit steep for NW2.

I believe it was Ainsle or Frank George that said to take 75% of Mdn claimer for his value in claimers. If a Big Win then full value may be ok. I think since that time Thask's 50% is more in line.

FlintAtTheFetlock
11-22-2017, 07:25 AM
Your MWBR angle needs to be refined to exclude the maiden-claimer winners. When a maiden claimer gets trounced in its first race against winners...it isn't because the horse "bounced". It's because the maiden claimers bear no resemblance to the regular claimers of the same dollar denomination.

A $10,000 maiden claimer wins its race while earning a comparatively-impressive speed figure...and the trainer, getting encouraged by the performance, enters the horse against $10,000 straight claimers next out. I don't care what the speed figures say, this horse is going to get TROUNCED next race...and the "bounce" factor has nothing to do with it. The maiden-claiming winners are totally incapable of reproducing the figures that they've run in the maiden-claimers, when they step up to face the horses who have been competing in straight-claimers. They need a steep drop in class in order to continue to compete effectively.

This is very helpful. I have some homework to do on class handicapping when at the MC level. It looked to me like the natural progression from MC12500 to cl12500N2L. She got play at 7-2 and when the speed figure dropped from 80 to 67, I knee jerk bounce, but you are saying the low fig is to be expected due to the competition? Please elaborate. The horse obviously failed to 'rebound' so I made a bad play. Thanks much.

PS: Any other 'no no's' on this angle? MWBR