Thoughts on Maiden Win / Bounce Plays?

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks

i don't have any data on this, but seems to me that its as good a way to go as any as long as you are consistent with it.

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like a neat angle, especially when it particularly suits the horse in question.

I'd love to get a square price on an improving young horse (or at least someone who did some actual running in the maiden-breaking win), who maybe 'bounced' in a tougher spot(class, pace, distance, etc...) following the maiden score, than in today's race.

I'm not crazy about it when a horse was a long-time maiden who finally got his trip/weak.field, or when today's race is a tougher spot.

One red flag that I try to avoid is horses who had to change things drastically to break their maiden. For example, you sometimes see a mediocre presser/stalker horse who is then stretched-out to a turf route, and then he breaks his maiden setting a moderate pace, wire-to-wire. A horse like this is unlikely to face a similar scenario unless he drops several classes as a winner.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks

I think in general after a win there is no exertion by the connections to push a horse to win again. If they don't match up on paper they are done to me. The double kiss of death! And if they ship to a better circuit you see some especially timid and lame rides.

[Robert Fischer]

Penn National today r1

Common Denominator looks like she may go off at a good enough price to consider as a key for each slot of the tri. She should be involved. The final green/red decision will come down to her odds vs. the 7,8,4 (I expect to be favored, but the 5's value is dependent on 478).

Common Denominator broke her maiden 2-back, in her second consecutive good effort. She's taken some money as a maiden indicating at least decent/mediocre talent. She has a habit of willingly improving position on the backstretch. Last race she face winners for the first time at this same class, and had a wide trip. She made her middle move and ran well enough.

The appears to be the best in the race and will be favored. She has flashy paper form. It's not certain that she is much the best, but there is a real possibility that she is.

is the wildcard. She should be involved early, but would need to find more, in order to somehow best the 5. I'm leaning against the on top today.
I'm leaning against the in the top spots today. I love that she finished 2nd vs this group last time while tripping-out, and that she draws wider today.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Penn National today r1

Common Denominator looks like she may go off at a good enough price to consider as a key for each slot of the tri. She should be involved. The final green/red decision will come down to her odds vs. the 7,8,4 (I expect to be favored, but the 5's value is dependent on 478).

Common Denominator broke her maiden 2-back, in her second consecutive good effort. She's taken some money as a maiden indicating at least decent/mediocre talent. She has a habit of willingly improving position on the backstretch. Last race she face winners for the first time at this same class, and had a wide trip. She made her middle move and ran well enough.

The appears to be the best in the race and will be favored. She has flashy paper form. It's not certain that she is much the best, but there is a real possibility that she is.

is the wildcard. She should be involved early, but would need to find more, in order to somehow best the 5. I'm leaning against the on top today.
I'm leaning against the in the top spots today. I love that she finished 2nd vs this group last time while tripping-out, and that she draws wider today.

Will the be carrying 130 lbs.?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Will the be carrying 130 lbs.?

what?

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

what?

Robert, looking at the class drop I was being facetious.

[Robert Fischer]

If you think 3's a lock, then consider the 5 vs the 1478. If you happen to agree that the 5 is a contender who is better than all but the 3, and the public happens to ignore the 5, then maybe you have a chance to get better odds on the 3 with an exacta or tri that uses the 5 underneath...

I can see that the 3 dwarfs the field on paper. Just look at the NY form that jumps off the page. She's probably much the best. There's a little bit of 'unknown' mixed in, given that a nonthreatening effort on poly @ PID, and the turf @LRL could possibly be hiding any issues or regression that may be going on (I wouldn't bridge jump this one). But she's the most likely winner and should be heavily favored.

[FakeNameChanged]

It'a a bottom level claimer, I don't consider any horse a lock. Like you said it'a a paper game until the gate opens. It will be interesting to see what the tote reveals if anything. As I mentioned was being facetious with the 130 number, maybe 125 was more in line.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If you think 3's a lock, then consider the 5 vs the 1478. If you happen to agree that the 5 is a contender who is better than all but the 3, and the public happens to ignore the 5, then maybe you have a chance to get better odds on the 3 with an exacta or tri that uses the 5 underneath...

I can see that the 3 dwarfs the field on paper. Just look at the NY form that jumps off the page. She's probably much the best. There's a little bit of 'unknown' mixed in, given that a nonthreatening effort on poly @ PID, and the turf @LRL could possibly be hiding any issues or regression that may be going on (I wouldn't bridge jump this one). But she's the most likely winner and should be heavily favored.

Looks like Johnny Bogar agrees with you. I like the 6.

[Robert Fischer]

dumb or smart here's what i got


cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$2 Win 5 none $2.00
-
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$5 Show 5 none $5.00
-
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$0.50 Trifecta 1, 3, 4, WT, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, WT, 5 none $6.00
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$1 Exacta BX, 1, 3, 4, 5 none $12.00
-
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$2 Exacta 3, WT, 5 none $2.00
-

cancel this wager
PEN
#1
$0.50 Pick-3 5, WT, 1, 2, 3, 5, WT, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 none $10.00

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Looks like Johnny Bogar agrees with you. I like the 6.

your 6 was the play

longest shot on the board and 2nd

the lock , and the wise guy 5 didn't do much



I needed the 5 to beat the 8 for the trifecta... no dice

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Spotted Moxie in Race 7 today at GPW. Fits the profile what I like to see. Very dull last time out after breaking maiden, Let's see if she snaps back today.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Probably my favorite angle. I shorthand it MWBR (maiden win bounce rebound)

After maiden WIN horse regresses (bounces?), and then comes back to win next time out. I use this in p4, p5 automatically, and it resulted in some nice scores. I especially like it when horses break their maiden early <5. But the angle seems to work with late bloomers too.

Anyone have any stats or refinement rules to enhance this angle? I admit many times it fails, so I would like to use some data, observations to eliminate those unlikely to rebound.

Thanks

Your MWBR angle needs to be refined to exclude the maiden-claimer winners. When a maiden claimer gets trounced in its first race against winners...it isn't because the horse "bounced". It's because the maiden claimers bear no resemblance to the regular claimers of the same dollar denomination.

A $10,000 maiden claimer wins its race while earning a comparatively-impressive speed figure...and the trainer, getting encouraged by the performance, enters the horse against $10,000 straight claimers next out. I don't care what the speed figures say, this horse is going to get TROUNCED next race...and the "bounce" factor has nothing to do with it. The maiden-claiming winners are totally incapable of reproducing the figures that they've run in the maiden-claimers, when they step up to face the horses who have been competing in straight-claimers. They need a steep drop in class in order to continue to compete effectively.