Mohawk HI-5 MANDATORY PAYOUT / 10-14-17

[AstrosFan]

On Race 12


http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Mohawk/Betting/Pages/Jackpot-Hi-5.aspx


http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Mohawk/Racing/standardbred/Pages/FreeProgramDownload.aspx

[Poindexter]

Almost a million bucks up for grabs Saturday night.

Here is my breakdown for the race. I like the race. Not one of those races where 10 or 12 horses have an equal chance of winning and it is just a matter of who gets the trip. Just a quick note, a lot of these horses raced 9/29(2 weeks ago) and as a handicapper you have to take those races with a grain of salt. There were very heavy winds that night, many horses that raced that night put in unusually slow performances and have come back to run back to their normal. FYI, When I refer to figures below, I am talking about my own figures.

Here is a breakdown top to bottom(in order of preference):

Dubious Claim-Since putting in a huge effort 3 back(came from 8th to 1st into a very fast last ½) has been stuck 1st over last 2. 2 back got the job done on that aformention 9/29, although visually not all that impressive, last out had his work cut out as they motored home in 54.2 last half. He kept to task and I do believe he is a better horse with cover. His figures 10/7 & 9/23 make him the horse to beat.

Preppy Art-Made huge improvement last out when brought over from the cheaper circuit(I have him improving 3 seconds in relative time). TM rates the field he just beat as better than the horses he is facing has been racing against, he was fairly well supported in there at 6-1 (based off his previous form-so it did not seem to shock those in the know) and Mcnair has been super hot lately. I rate his last performance just below that of Dubious Claim.

Rollaround theworld-Nice effort in last leaving from the 8 hole setting the fractions and coming home the 54.2 last half and holding off my top pick. Solid efforts each of his last 4 races.

Richard Hill-This is the x factor. Was better than these horses earlier this year, see the 7/15 race where he earned a very good figure. Hit hard times and then got sick. Curiously was brought back in a stakes race 2 back on 9/2 and wasn’t ready. Then was given another month off and drew the 7 hole. Was dead on the board that night and had no chance when 9 lengths back going into the 54.2 last half. Still managed to make up good ground into that last half, and certainly a performance that can make him a big contender in here. Don’t have the multiple line past performances, but do believe this horse has left in the past and one thing about this race, on paper(which typically doesn’t mean all that much) there does not appear to be a huge amount of early speed. The only horse that appear to me that will likely leave is the 5. The 2-3-8 could leave. Looks like the wild card in here and certainly should be considered as a major contender.

Rebellious-This guy rounds out the main contenders. Got going really good 8/25 and 9/2, then was sent 1st over in the Simcoe and stopped. 9/25 ran pretty well(Not nearly as well as the 8/25 and 9/2 races) and winner that night came back huge. Last week he was a strong 1st over in a stakes race and fell apart. Don’t think he will will, but with the right trip he certainly could, but belongs more with the better horses in this field than the lesser one.

Homey Joe-Hard to gauge. This horse when he is good is pretty darn good (his 9/8 race would make him better than my top choice in here), but now the bad news. Closer from the 7 hole in a 12 horse field(which could easily make him 4th over or worse) and since that 9/8 race form has been suspect. Scratched 9/15, empty 9/23, missed a week and last out, while he had no chance trying to close into that 54.2 last ½ and he did come the last ¼ in 26.3, not sure that is enough(was 3rd over gapping a bit ft but though came home pretty decently). Wouldn’t shock me, but I prefer others. Certainly make him a strong contender for the 4/5 holes, maybe even 3rd.

Penzance Hanover-Another victim of the fast last ½ lat out. Prior race was not very good. Actually had him as my top choice that night and he faded for no good reason. His prior 2 were good, but post draw not good for him. He would do much better from a post he can leave and sit or even leave hard.

Toxicity-has competed with and been well backed against many of these who went on to win before he did. Visually I though his last race was pretty decent. However did not give him a very good figure for it. 8 post certainly doesn’t help cause.

Freddy Bear-Did not fire on that strange 9/29 night. Note started up 1st over sitting 4th, horse that was sitting 3rd broke and driver elected to take 3 hole(don’t think that helped his chances). Missed a week since. 2 and 3 back were pretty solid efforts that certainly would make him a contender in here, just trying to figure out how he gets into the race from the 9 hole. Certainly would not leave him off the 4 or 5 spot of the super high 5.

Kazimoto-should be forwardly placed and seems eligible to sneak into the 4 or 5 hole, with his figures, I cannot see him doing better than that.

This is my song-Similar to Kazimoto, only he has to come from farther back as I think Kazimoto will out leave Rebellious who this horse will be behind.

Mr. Destruction- Didn’t appear to be much in May and June, then off the layoff comes up with a huge improvement. Still that race was very fast early and slow late so he just picked up the pieces form tired horses in a very weak field for the level. My figure for the race doesn’t give him a look in here but I guess he can improve 2nd off layoff.

Now go make some money. :)

[Ray2000]

Nice work, Poindexter :ThmbUp: thx

Here's my play, Going with Rollaroundtheworld who lost by a head to Dubious Claim last week.
How do you see the pace tonight . . fast or so-so? I'm hoping for so-so.

5 / 1,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,6,7 / 1,3,4,6,7,8,9 . . . $14.40

Good Luck All

[camluck49]

345/345/345/all/all 86.40. hope for bombs 4th and 5th.

[AstrosFan]

Rain is in the forecast handicappers!

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/toronto

[EdZone]

Mohawk RaceTrack Weather

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/hourly-weather-forecast/ontario/mohawk-racetrack

70% to 80% Rain 5:00 PM to 10:00 PM

[Sea Biscuit]

MY $72 ticket for the 20 cents variety

45/247135/247135/247135/2471358

[EdZone]

Jackpot Hi-5
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ ​​​​​ ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​***The Jackpot Hi-5 will be frozen after Saturday October 7th, and will be offered as a mandatory payout on the last race of the card Saturday, October 14th!***​

Jackpot Hi-5 Carryover $978,779.26
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
2 tickets

Race 12
$0.20 Superfecta-5: 4 / 3,5 / 3,5,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 Bets: 120 Total: $24

Race 12
$0.20 Superfecta-5: 3,5 / 4 / 3,5,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 Bets: 120 Total: $24

[Ray2000]

If it's muddy then too bad Louis Roy isn't in it.
Best Off track driver this year at Mohawk

Off track
Driver . . . . Starts . Win%
Roy . . . . . . . .81 . . . 28%
Cullen . . . . . . 45 . . . 20%
Waples . . . . . 40 . . . 20%
Christoforou . . 25 . . . 16%

Favorites
Mcnair . . . . .150 . . . 46%
Zeron . . . . . .40 . . . 45%
Henry . . . . . 165 . . . 42%
Filion . . . . . 118 . . . 42%

Longshots
Mcnair . . . . .474 . . . 7%

[Poindexter]

Ah, good old rain. Hoping it doesn't rain too much. In general I just stick to my original capping in rain (for lack of a better approach) situations. Probably the more it rains the less I bet, but certainly going to get involved not matter what. Not a lot of off track form to go on in here and no recent off track form.

Regarding Pace Ray, I generally do not try to project the pace on this circuit as more often than not I will be wrong if I try. I think Kazimoto leaves enough to plug in holes and have a fairly close early spot, Preppy Art will likely leave, Rollaroundtheworld will very likely leave, Toxicity, may try to leave(or just try for a hole), Richard Hill I am hoping will leave as definitely going to use him good in here. The 2 second tier horses normally can leave but drawn 2nd tier This is my song likely takes back, Penzance Hanover perhaps will delay leave. I certainly wouldn't be shocked if they put up a 26.3 to 27 flat 1st quarter and depending on how long it takes everyone to clear the fast pace can extend to the 2nd quarter. Also Mcnair is aggressive so would not be suprised to see him try to claim the lead back stretch One thing about Rebellious, when he goes 1st over he comes hard, so if he does come 1st over, that will make the 3rd quarter even faster. If Macdonell is 2nd over or even 3rd over behind him, he will have a really good chance with Dubious Claim. But all this is speculative, but certainly can see a fast early pace.

[coachv30]

Ticket 1- 4,7 / 1,4,5 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,4,7,10 / 2,5,7,8,10,12- $24

Ticket 2- 1,5 / 3,4,5 / 1,5,8,10 / 1,3,4,8 / 3,4,6,8,10- $15


GL Guys:ThmbUp:

[Sea Biscuit]

Current track condition

17 Degrees Celsius Rain

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Mohawk/Racing/Pages/TheRaceResults.aspx

[MutuelClerk]

Nice synopsis earlier Poindexter. Here's my play. 24.00 total.

5/2/148911/148911/148911. 5/148911/2/148911/148911

[ucancallmemrlucky]

Thanks Poindexter and good luck to you! :ThmbUp:
$.20 super hi-5 in race 12:
4-5/1-3-4-5-8-9/1-3-4-5-8-9/1-3-4-5-7-8-9/1-2-3-4-5-7-8-9-10
$160 ticket, split with 3 other participants, $40 each

[Sea Biscuit]

MY $72 ticket for the 20 cents variety

45/247135/247135/247135/2471358

Revising my ticket

45/2471358/2471358/2471358/2471358 $144 ticket

[cecil127]

throwing a few out there cause ya have to...all that dead $:cool::ThmbUp:

4 / 3, 5 / 3, 5, 8, 9 / 3, 5, 8, 9 / 3, 5, 8, 9-$2.40

4 / 5 / 3 / 2, 8, 9, 10, 11 / 2, 8, 9, 10, 11 -$4

4 / 3, 5 / 3, 5, 9, 11 / 3, 5, 9, 11 / 3, 5, 9, 11-$2.40

bol all and special thanks to Poindexter for posting his notes:)

one mo: 4, 5 / 4, 5 / 2, 11 / 2, 10, 11 / 8, 10, 11-$2.80

[Mailman]

10th race, track sloppy, looks like its raining pretty hard.

[coachv30]

Ticket 1- 4,7 / 1,4,5 / 1,2,5,7 / 1,2,4,7,10 / 2,5,7,8,10,12- $24

Ticket 2- 1,5 / 3,4,5 / 1,5,8,10 / 1,3,4,8 / 3,4,6,8,10- $15


GL Guys:ThmbUp:

3/:4::2::7::5: $2446 :bang:

[AstrosFan]

Over $2.3 million bet into the pool, chasing almost another million in the pot, with a huge bomb in 3rd and it only pays $2,446?

I passed the race, but OH I would be PISSED at that skinny payout (as a bettor) for whoever did hit it


3/4/2/7/5 the winning combo


winning odds

9-2 from a 10-1 ML
2-1
42-1
17-1
3-1

[EdZone]

2 tickets

Race 12
$0.20 Superfecta-5: 4 / 3,5 / 3,5,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 Bets: 120 Total: $24

Race 12
$0.20 Superfecta-5: 3,5 / 4 / 3,5,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,11 Bets: 120 Total: $24

Ran 3 / 4 / 2 / 7 / 5 No #2 No Pork Chop :blush:

[Sea Biscuit]

Revising my ticket

45/2471358/2471358/2471358/2471358 $144 ticket

45/2471358/2471358/2471358/2471358 $144 ticket

Finished 3-4-2-7-5:bang:

Close but no cigar.

[Mailman]

I Think the whole pool was $ 3,354,309

[Poindexter]

NP regarding the analysis. I do well on this circuit so was more than happy to try to provide some insight on a big giveaway like that.

I also failed to knock this down. I played needing the 3 & 4 to win or the 4 to come 2nd, so I was good on that end. The only problem was I needed the 1, 5 or 10 to come 3rd (or even 4th had the 4 won). The 1 really stunk, the 5 stunk but managed 5th and the 10 ran into traffic isssues after taking back from the 10 hole(he went off at like 30-1 so I still feel he was a very good gamble). In hindsight, I failed to play the obvious 34/34/spread/1-5-10/spread and 34/34/spread/spread/1-5-10 cover tickets which of course would have brought down the prize. Hindsight is always 20/20 and as mentioned payoff sort of sucked, so not going to beat myself up over this one.

I think the lousy payoff had to do with the fact that the 3 favorites were in the top 5(including the top 2) AND post position. the 8,9,10,11 & 12 were all out of the super high 5. While 11 & 12 are 2nd tier, and may get away closer than say a 7 horse, they also have no chance to leave. Horses that draw inside can always get a piece fo the Super high 5(assuming they have any ability) because of position, so it is a lot easier to toss a horse from the 8/9/10 hole than the 2/3/4 hole. You multiply that bias by thousands of tickets being played and the payoff is certainly going to be skewed lower when the inside posts dominate the high 5 and higher when the outside post positions dominate the high 5. So while the 2 was 42-1 on the board, in the 3/4/5 spot of the high 5 I think he probably played closer to a 15-1 shot.