PDA

View Full Version : Can Backfitting Lead To Profits? -- sometimes it can!!


TheOracle
08-26-2017, 01:37 PM
...

It is scouring old data to find positive trends to play in the future, hoping they turn out to be positive on new races.

...

From what I have seen when I have done this, whenever the trend gets close to 10 it dissolves. However, there are times when the trend goes a little longer and you can squeeze out some profits

Lately, I found a trend with Pletcher at Saratoga where the data was less than a month old at Saratoga where Pletcher's horses hit the board when their Morning Lines were less than 3-1 and on the Dirt and 19 out of 20 finished no worse than 2nd

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/t a pletcherplcprlysarondrt.jpg

I caught on to it at 10 in a row and I was able to squeeze out a profit for the last 9 out of 11 in a row

I've done plenty that never worked out that well they dissovled as soon as I found them but there are those like the one I found at Belmont where for almost a year so far, since June 18 2016, the Morning Line 2/1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile won 17 of their last 29 races

I backfitted the living daily lights out of this one!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrf.jpg

At the time I found the streak you were getting a 41% return on your money per $2 win wager and 24 of the 29 finished no worse than 2nd I will be keeping a very close eye on this situation when they return to Belmont

So sometimes it works and I try to take advantage of it when it does I was never able to get this type of consistency when handicapping the returns aren't that great but I take what they give me!!!

TheOracle
08-26-2017, 01:49 PM
I found this one with C C Brown at Saratoga going back to August 2014, whenever his horses are less than 3-1 in the Morning Line in Stakes races on the Dirt

His horses have won 9 of 13 on the Dirt at Saratoga when less than 3-1 in the Morning Line in Stakes races on the Dirt and you are getting a 50% return per $2 win wager!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c brownstksdrtsar.jpg

He has these on the Dirt in Stakes races today at Saratoga

7th race
#3 Paulassilverlining

8th race
#1 Practical Joke

Back to back wins are usually followed by a loss so I am hoping #1 Practical Joke will get the win today!!! Let's see if he can get a win out of one or both of these today hopefully the joke won't be on me!!!

kevb
08-26-2017, 03:03 PM
Thanks. I'll take Practical Joke for $50, Alex.

Dave Schwartz
08-26-2017, 04:52 PM
10 races is not a "trend."

There will always be things we observe that appear to be a pattern. If you doubt that, go watch a roulette wheel for an hour.

The fact that things happened in an obvious pattern does not indicate that the pattern is statistically valid.

Distantly related, but a good read:

Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained) (https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/mental-models/)

TheOracle
08-26-2017, 05:23 PM
Thanks. I'll take Practical Joke for $50, Alex.

Hey Keyb

#1 Practical Joke won did you score?

TheOracle
08-26-2017, 05:36 PM
10 races is not a "trend."

There will always be things we observe that appear to be a pattern. If you doubt that, go watch a roulette wheel for an hour.

The fact that things happened in an obvious pattern does not indicate that the pattern is statistically valid.

Distantly related, but a good read:

Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained) (https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/mental-models/)

Hey Dave,

I'm not trying to say the findings are statistically valid I'm just looking at the short term.

Just curious, how many races more or less would you need for a statistically valid trend?

n.c
08-26-2017, 10:32 PM
had Practical Joke 2nd and 3rd.. did not see this stat..if i had seen the stats, would have put him at the top as a back up ticket. Practical joke had a huge class edge in this race, had a win over the course and had a race in the last few weeks.
Had American Anthem to beat Practical Joke:)

The two races that i did not key Baffert, he won :) Big mistake on my part was to watch American Anthem last race, so it kinda forced my mind to put him at the top spot. Should have never watched his last race.

TheOracle
08-26-2017, 10:50 PM
had Practical Joke 2nd and 3rd.. did not see this stat..if i had seen the stats, would have put him at the top as a back up ticket. Practical joke had a huge class edge in this race, had a win over the course and had a race in the last few weeks.
Had American Anthem to beat Practical Joke:)

The two races that i did not key Baffert, he won :) Big mistake on my part was to watch American Anthem last race, so it kinda forced my mind to put him at the top spot. Should have never watched his last race.

Hey bro,

Yeah that was a tough break for you, #1 Practical Joke paid $12.10 across the board too bad you didn't play him to win place and show