Redboard
06-09-2017, 11:29 AM
Here are my value plays for Saturday's graded stakes races at Belmont.
There is no rain in the forecast so I’m assuming a fast / firm track.
Race 3- The Brooklyn
The two favorites here, :4: Send It In and :5: Tu Brutus have eye-popping beyers on their resumes (119 & 118). These two will be very hard to beat(gulp), but that’s what value playing is all about, going against the grain and coming up with overlays. My pick is :3: Sunny Ridge 10-1, hoping he’ll be flying late with the :5: , :6: & :7: caught in a speed duel. Coming off a bad effort on a sloppy track in his last. The extra rest should help with Servis at 29% off that layoff.
Race 4- The Acorn
:4: Salty 4-1 is also coming off a bad effort in the slop, the Kentucky Oaks. a race she was the favorite in.
Race 5 – Ogden Phipps
:5: Songbird will be tough to beat here and that’s an understatement!
:7: Carina Mia 6-1 (the 2nd ML fav) is the only one who has been able to stay in the same zipcode with her. Won the Acorn last year so she likes the track, second off a layoff and again, coming off a bad slop effort. She’s a year older and would be worth a shot at 6-1, but I doubt we’ll get that.
Race 6 – Jaipur (Turf sprint)
Finally a race with weak favorites and plenty of opportunities. :10: Stormy Liberal 5-1 is coming off four straight wins and I see him tracking the speed then pouncing. I like his outside position too, where he’s seemed to score his best Beyers from.
Race 7 – Woody Stevens
:10: Long Haul Bay 5-1 Chad Brown has been hot lately and is 25% coming off that layoff. Although only his third lifetime start, Colt is 2 for 2 and has been working lights out.
Race 8 – Just a Game(Turf)
:7: Antonoe 8-1 Who can pass up the JJ-Brown team at 8-1? With all the rain we’ve had, the turf should be slow enough to prevent the speedballs ( :5: & :6: ) from running away with it.
Race 9 – The Met
:12: Awesome Slew 6-1 is another closer with an outside position-an angle I like. Although :5: Sharp Aztek could very well lap the field, I’m hoping that the :9: & :10: make him work for the lead.
Race 10 – Manhattan (Turf)
:5: Ascend 20-1 This candy-ride bred, 5-year-old gelding will be making his second start of the year, and could be coming into his own. Of his twelve lifetime races, he’s won five, and placed in four others, and never lost by more than 4 ¼ lengths in the other three. Jose Ortiz gets the mount here for Motion Graham.
Race 11 – Belmont Stakes
:9: Meantime 15-1 Mike Smith’s aboard this colt who almost wired the field last time out in the Peter Pan. This is the only front-runner I’m picking today. He’ll need to get the lead, which should be no problem since he’s surrounded by slowpokes on both sides.
There is no rain in the forecast so I’m assuming a fast / firm track.
Race 3- The Brooklyn
The two favorites here, :4: Send It In and :5: Tu Brutus have eye-popping beyers on their resumes (119 & 118). These two will be very hard to beat(gulp), but that’s what value playing is all about, going against the grain and coming up with overlays. My pick is :3: Sunny Ridge 10-1, hoping he’ll be flying late with the :5: , :6: & :7: caught in a speed duel. Coming off a bad effort on a sloppy track in his last. The extra rest should help with Servis at 29% off that layoff.
Race 4- The Acorn
:4: Salty 4-1 is also coming off a bad effort in the slop, the Kentucky Oaks. a race she was the favorite in.
Race 5 – Ogden Phipps
:5: Songbird will be tough to beat here and that’s an understatement!
:7: Carina Mia 6-1 (the 2nd ML fav) is the only one who has been able to stay in the same zipcode with her. Won the Acorn last year so she likes the track, second off a layoff and again, coming off a bad slop effort. She’s a year older and would be worth a shot at 6-1, but I doubt we’ll get that.
Race 6 – Jaipur (Turf sprint)
Finally a race with weak favorites and plenty of opportunities. :10: Stormy Liberal 5-1 is coming off four straight wins and I see him tracking the speed then pouncing. I like his outside position too, where he’s seemed to score his best Beyers from.
Race 7 – Woody Stevens
:10: Long Haul Bay 5-1 Chad Brown has been hot lately and is 25% coming off that layoff. Although only his third lifetime start, Colt is 2 for 2 and has been working lights out.
Race 8 – Just a Game(Turf)
:7: Antonoe 8-1 Who can pass up the JJ-Brown team at 8-1? With all the rain we’ve had, the turf should be slow enough to prevent the speedballs ( :5: & :6: ) from running away with it.
Race 9 – The Met
:12: Awesome Slew 6-1 is another closer with an outside position-an angle I like. Although :5: Sharp Aztek could very well lap the field, I’m hoping that the :9: & :10: make him work for the lead.
Race 10 – Manhattan (Turf)
:5: Ascend 20-1 This candy-ride bred, 5-year-old gelding will be making his second start of the year, and could be coming into his own. Of his twelve lifetime races, he’s won five, and placed in four others, and never lost by more than 4 ¼ lengths in the other three. Jose Ortiz gets the mount here for Motion Graham.
Race 11 – Belmont Stakes
:9: Meantime 15-1 Mike Smith’s aboard this colt who almost wired the field last time out in the Peter Pan. This is the only front-runner I’m picking today. He’ll need to get the lead, which should be no problem since he’s surrounded by slowpokes on both sides.