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View Full Version : Examining both sides of the streak @BEL -- a look at the Morning Line Favorites!!!


TheOracle
05-22-2017, 12:04 AM
I am listing some streaks that I have been following at Belmont to see if they would either continue to make profits or start to make profits

Some streaks have not made any profits due to not having any wins or a low number of wins for a particular situation


Since May 4th the Morning Lines ending in 5 have gone 0 for their last 7 in Claiming races on the Dirt at Belmont

Prior to May 4th, going back to all of 2016 at Belmont, the Morning Lines ending in 5 were winning at a rate of 41% in Claiming races on the Dirt.

Fast forward to this year and they are currently 1 for their last 9 in Claiming races on the Dirt

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivesbelclmdrt.jpg

Currently they have lost 7 in a row since May 5th.


I am hoping they return to a win rate of at least 35% with some nice win streaks in between hopefully yielding close to a 20% return in the process


I will keep a watchful eye on this situation

TheOracle
05-22-2017, 12:10 AM
Since May 1st 2016, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 13 of their last 20 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrf.jpg


Per $2 win wager you are getting a 31% return on your money, in addition, 17 of the last 20 have finished no worse than 2nd

This is one of the trends that is yielding a positive return so far and my hope is that the trend continues a few more times before going cold!!!

TheOracle
05-22-2017, 12:25 AM
Since June 18 2016, the Morning Line 2/1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont have won 17 of their last 29 races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrf.jpg

You are getting a 41% return on your money per $2 win wager

In addition, 24 of the 29 have finished no worse than 2nd

I am keeping a very close eye on this situation and hopefully there will be a few more wins coming before the trend goes cold!!!

TheOracle
05-22-2017, 10:54 AM
Since May 1st 2016, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 13 of their last 20 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrf.jpg


Per $2 win wager you are getting a 31% return on your money, in addition, 17 of the last 20 have finished no worse than 2nd

This is one of the trends that is yielding a positive return so far and my hope is that the trend continues a few more times before going cold!!!


This streak has been going on for at least a year

I'm hoping it will continue to perform well and yield profitable returns even if there's a dip in the win percentage this season

It seems that the oddsmaker tends to lean heavily toward C C Brown in this situation especially when the distance is 1 Mile or better on the Turf

Also, back to back wins seem to be followed by a loss and recently wins have been happening at every other attempt

So if the pattern holds, in theory anyway, the next attempt should be a loss and the one after will be a win....I guess we will see

It always looks good when you draw it up but the actual results sometimes tell a different story

TheOracle
05-24-2017, 09:12 PM
Since June 18 2016, the Morning Line 2/1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont have won 17 of their last 29 races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrf.jpg

You are getting a 41% return on your money per $2 win wager

In addition, 24 of the 29 have finished no worse than 2nd

I am keeping a very close eye on this situation and hopefully there will be a few more wins coming before the trend goes cold!!!


There are 2 Morning Line 2/1's listed at Belmont tomorrow they are both going at distances less than 1 Mile on the Turf

Race 4
#7 Paz the Wine

Race 6
#5 Reckless Humor

There is a very strong possibility of rain tomorrow in the Tri-State Area so I'm sure these will come off the Turf

If they do keep them on the Turf, a win by #7 Paz the Wine would make it 4 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2/1's in this situation which might be a lot to ask

However, a loss by #7 Paz the Wine would make me look at #5 Reckless Humor with a little bit more interest

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle
05-25-2017, 11:36 PM
There are 2 Morning Line 2/1's listed at Belmont tomorrow they are both going at distances less than 1 Mile on the Turf

Race 4
#7 Paz the Wine

Race 6
#5 Reckless Humor

There is a very strong possibility of rain tomorrow in the Tri-State Area so I'm sure these will come off the Turf

If they do keep them on the Turf, a win by #7 Paz the Wine would make it 4 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2/1's in this situation which might be a lot to ask

However, a loss by #7 Paz the Wine would make me look at #5 Reckless Humor with a little bit more interest

Let's see what happens!!!

Well #7 Paz the Wine raced on the Dirt and #5 Reckless Humor was scratched so neither will not qualify for the study!!!

TheOracle
05-26-2017, 12:42 PM
Well #7 Paz the Wine raced on the Dirt and #5 Reckless Humor was scratched so neither will not qualify for the study!!!

Correction neither of these will qualify for the study

TheOracle
05-27-2017, 11:27 AM
Since May 1st 2016, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 13 of their last 20 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrf.jpg


Per $2 win wager you are getting a 31% return on your money, in addition, 17 of the last 20 have finished no worse than 2nd

This is one of the trends that is yielding a positive return so far and my hope is that the trend continues a few more times before going cold!!!


There is a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Stakes race today on the Turf at Belmont

8th race
#8 Big Handsome


However, there hasn't been back to back wins since September 22nd 2016 so if the pattern holds this should be a loss and the one after this should be a win


Let's see if #8 Big Handsome can break the pattern with back to back wins!!!

TheOracle
05-27-2017, 12:13 PM
Since June 18 2016, the Morning Line 2/1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont have won 17 of their last 29 races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrf.jpg

You are getting a 41% return on your money per $2 win wager

In addition, 24 of the 29 have finished no worse than 2nd

I am keeping a very close eye on this situation and hopefully there will be a few more wins coming before the trend goes cold!!!


There are 2 Morning Line 2/1's listed at Belmont today they are both going at distances less than 1 Mile on the Turf

1st race
#4 The Crocheron Kid

5th race
#6 Shiraz


I have my doubts about #4 The Crocheron Kid since a win today would make it 4 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2/1's in this situation and back to back wins have been followed by losses not wins

However, if #4 The Crocheron Kid were to lose I would be very interested too see if #6 Shiraz would be able to get the streak going again in this situation!!!

This is all provided that the 1st and 5th races stay on the Turf!!!

TheOracle
05-27-2017, 10:19 PM
There is a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Stakes race today on the Turf at Belmont

8th race
#8 Big Handsome


However, there hasn't been back to back wins since September 22nd 2016 so if the pattern holds this should be a loss and the one after this should be a win


Let's see if #8 Big Handsome can break the pattern with back to back wins!!!

Well #8 Big Handsome broke the pattern and gave us back to back wins in Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont for the Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 it is the first time this has happened since September 22nd 2016

It only paid $8 across the board but the way I've been going I will gladly take a 33% return on the day

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivestakestrfbel.jpg


So now, 18 of the last 21 have finished no worse than 2nd

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle
05-27-2017, 10:37 PM
There are 2 Morning Line 2/1's listed at Belmont today they are both going at distances less than 1 Mile on the Turf

1st race
#4 The Crocheron Kid

5th race
#6 Shiraz


I have my doubts about #4 The Crocheron Kid since a win today would make it 4 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2/1's in this situation and back to back wins have been followed by losses not wins

However, if #4 The Crocheron Kid were to lose I would be very interested too see if #6 Shiraz would be able to get the streak going again in this situation!!!

This is all provided that the 1st and 5th races stay on the Turf!!!



Well #4 The Crocheron Kid came through with a win and of course I didn't think of the scenario of what would happen if he won and what that would mean to the streak


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonetrfbel.jpg


So naturally the win made it 5 in a row for the Morning Line 2/1's going less than 1 Mile on the Turf at Belmont

However, #6 Shiraz snapped the win streak at 5 in a row as he finished off the board

A $2 win bet on this situation has given you a return of 39% for almost a year let's hope it keeps going!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the #4 The Crocheron Kid play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle
05-28-2017, 10:51 AM
I am listing some streaks that I have been following at Belmont to see if they would either continue to make profits or start to make profits

Some streaks have not made any profits due to not having any wins or a low number of wins for a particular situation


Since May 4th the Morning Lines ending in 5 have gone 0 for their last 7 in Claiming races on the Dirt at Belmont

Prior to May 4th, going back to all of 2016 at Belmont, the Morning Lines ending in 5 were winning at a rate of 41% in Claiming races on the Dirt.

Fast forward to this year and they are currently 1 for their last 9 in Claiming races on the Dirt

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivesbelclmdrt.jpg

Currently they have lost 7 in a row since May 5th.


I am hoping they return to a win rate of at least 35% with some nice win streaks in between hopefully yielding close to a 20% return in the process


I will keep a watchful eye on this situation


There's a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Claiming race on the Dirt today at Belmont in the 3rd race

3rd race
#9 Bustin It


Let's see if #9 Bustin It can bust this trend wide open for some positive returns!!!

TheOracle
05-28-2017, 10:44 PM
There's a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Claiming race on the Dirt today at Belmont in the 3rd race

3rd race
#9 Bustin It


Let's see if #9 Bustin It can bust this trend wide open for some positive returns!!!


Well #9 Bustin It busted through today for a win only paid $8.10 across the board

Sometimes you just have to take what they give you!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelmdnsnpdrt.jpg


Let's see if a win streak emerges for the Morning Lines ending in 5 for Claimers on the Dirt in this situation!!!

n.c
05-29-2017, 11:31 AM
20 dollar bet rolled over will be at over 250 dollars:headbanger:

TheOracle
05-29-2017, 12:24 PM
20 dollar bet rolled over will be at over 250 dollars:headbanger:

Hey N.C.

It seems C C Brown has 9 entered today but most of these will scratch as there has been quite a bit of rain in the Tri-State area today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ccbrowntenbel.jpg

Let's see which of these he leaves in to run today at Belmont!!!

TheOracle
05-29-2017, 01:21 PM
The Morning Line 2/1's are 9 out of 15 in Stakes races going 1 Mile or better over a wet Surface at Belmont going back to 2012


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonestakesbelslp.jpg


Although, since October 22nd 2016 they have been 0 for their last 3 in this situation

Let's see what C C Brown's entries do today in the 4th and 6th races provided that the 4th comes off the Turf and he doesn't scratch out of the race


4th race
#5 Fourstar

6th race
#11 Kathryn the Wise

Let's see what happens!!!

green80
05-29-2017, 02:01 PM
not trying to burst your bubble but all you are doing is backfitting a subset of results to morning line odds. There is no sound basis that these same results will continue in the future or apply over a large sample of races.

TheOracle
05-29-2017, 02:20 PM
not trying to burst your bubble but all you are doing is backfitting a subset of results to morning line odds. There is no sound basis that these same results will continue in the future or apply over a large sample of races.

Hey Green

I hear you, not trying to say that it will continue, but I just like to keep track of when they go hot and cold and to tell you the truth it's much better than I could have ever done handicapping over that time frame.

TheOracle
05-29-2017, 09:45 PM
The Morning Line 2/1's are 9 out of 15 in Stakes races going 1 Mile or better over a wet Surface at Belmont going back to 2012


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonestakesbelslp.jpg


Although, since October 22nd 2016 they have been 0 for their last 3 in this situation

Let's see what C C Brown's entries do today in the 4th and 6th races provided that the 4th comes off the Turf and he doesn't scratch out of the race


4th race
#5 Fourstar

6th race
#11 Kathryn the Wise

Let's see what happens!!!


Well although #5 Fourstar Crook won his race he will not qualify for the study as we were looking for Stakes races over a wet surface and the 4th race did not come off the Turf at Belmont today


We actually got one right with #11 Kathryn the Wise as she came through with a win today in her Stakes race over a wet surface she only paid $8.90 across the board but hey beggars can't be choosers!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesbeldrtwet.jpg
This now makes 10 wins out of 16 attempts for the Morning Line 2/1's in Stakes races over a wet surface going 1 Mile or better at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit

TheOracle
05-29-2017, 09:55 PM
Hey N.C.

It seems C C Brown has 9 entered today but most of these will scratch as there has been quite a bit of rain in the Tri-State area today

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ccbrowntenbel.jpg

Let's see which of these he leaves in to run today at Belmont!!!


For those playing C C Brown's horses today the win returns were an accountants dream as you broke even playing all of his horses to win today at Belmont!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ccbrownbelslop.jpg

For those who were more conservative and played his horses across the board you got a 20% return on your money per $2 win, place and show wager!!!


Win and place was probably the way to go today with his horses as you picked up a 26% return per $2 win and place wager today!!!

C C Brown doesn't usually return a profit when he has horses entered in multiple Stakes races I guess there's a first time for everything!!!

TheOracle
06-04-2017, 02:26 PM
Well #8 Big Handsome broke the pattern and gave us back to back wins in Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont for the Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 it is the first time this has happened since September 22nd 2016

It only paid $8 across the board but the way I've been going I will gladly take a 33% return on the day

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivestakestrfbel.jpg


So now, 18 of the last 21 have finished no worse than 2nd

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!


Mott's woes snapped a two race win streak for the Morning Lines ending with 5 in Stakes races on the Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/http://www.insidethnumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrfsks.jpg[IMG]http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrfsks.jpg

However, 19 of the last 22 have finished no worse than 2nd

You are still getting a 22% return for over a year in this situation

I will be keeping close tabs on this should it happen again during the course of the season at Belmont!!!

TheOracle
06-08-2017, 02:01 PM
Mott's woes snapped a two race win streak for the Morning Lines ending with 5 in Stakes races on the Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/http://www.insidethnumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrfsks.jpg[IMG]http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrfsks.jpg

However, 19 of the last 22 have finished no worse than 2nd

You are still getting a 22% return for over a year in this situation

I will be keeping close tabs on this should it happen again during the course of the season at Belmont!!!

There is a Morning Line ending in 5 today in a Stakes race on the Turf in the 3rd race

3rd race
#7 New Money Honey

Let's see what happens maybe the Morning Line 5ers can get back on the winning streak on the Turf!!!

TheOracle
06-09-2017, 12:55 AM
There is a Morning Line ending in 5 today in a Stakes race on the Turf in the 3rd race

3rd race
#7 New Money Honey

Let's see what happens maybe the Morning Line 5ers can get back on the winning streak on the Turf!!!



Well #7 New Money Honey came through with a win hopefully there will be a few more wins on the way with the Morning Line 5ers in Stakes races on the Turf!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivestakestrfbelstrk.jpg


This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation!!!


Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle
06-09-2017, 01:03 AM
Well #7 New Money Honey came through with a win hopefully there will be a few more wins on the way with the Morning Line 5ers in Stakes races on the Turf!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivestakestrfbelstrk.jpg


This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation!!!


Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

Interesting to note, C C Brown has 9 out of the 15 wins in this situation his horses have only lost twice

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c brownstakestrktrfbel.jpg

You are getting a 65% return per $2 win wager for this situation not too shabby for some favorites!!!

TheOracle
06-10-2017, 10:26 AM
Interesting to note, C C Brown has 9 out of the 15 wins in this situation his horses have only lost twice

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c brownstakestrktrfbel.jpg

You are getting a 65% return per $2 win wager for this situation not too shabby for some favorites!!!

Let's see if C C Brown can continue his streak of Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 winning on the Turf at Belmont going 1 Mile or better

So far, he has a win streak of 3 in a row and 9 of the last 11 have won for him in this situation!!!

He has this today in the 8th race:
8th race
#2 Roca Rojo

Let's see if he can extend the streak to 4 in a row today at Belmont!!!

TheOracle
06-13-2017, 09:56 AM
Let's see if C C Brown can continue his streak of Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 winning on the Turf at Belmont going 1 Mile or better

So far, he has a win streak of 3 in a row and 9 of the last 11 have won for him in this situation!!!

He has this today in the 8th race:
8th race
#2 Roca Rojo

Let's see if he can extend the streak to 4 in a row today at Belmont!!!

Well #2 Roca Rojo was off the board at Belmont last Saturday snapping a streak of 4 wins in a row for C C Brown's Morning Line Favorites ending with 5 going 1 Mile or better on the Turf in Stakes races

It also snapped a streak of 11 in a row hitting the board for this situation

He had 12 horses entered on Saturday 10 of them in Stakes races of which only 4 managed to hit the board, but hey, he got his 1 million plus dollars in purse money earned so I guess it's okay

TheOracle
06-15-2017, 12:22 AM
The Morning Line 2/1's in Maiden races on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better have been winning at a rate of 47% at Belmont going back to May 1st 2016


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesmdnbeldrtmlrs.jpg


You are getting a 39% return per $2 win wager in this situation


When you look at the Maiden Claiming races for the Morning Line 2/1's they are even more impressive


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesmdnclmbeldrtmlrs.jpg

So far, they have won 5 of their last 6 races and you are getting a 168% return per $2 win wager in Maiden Claiming races on the Dirt at 1 Mile or better


Let's keep an eye on this situation at Belmont!!!

TheOracle
06-15-2017, 12:32 AM
The Morning Line 5/2's have been on a tear over the past 3 racing days at Belmont they have won 11 out of their last 18 races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwosbelthrdays.jpg

I spotted it on June 10th and was sure it would have dissolved by today but I was wrong as the Morning Line 5/2's won 4 of their 6 races today

I just didn't think it would happen only 4 horses paid under $8 today and the Morning Line 5/2's had 3 of the 4

I am not sure what they will do tomorrow but I will be paying attention to them especially at Distances of 1 Mile or better!!!

TheOracle
06-15-2017, 11:09 AM
The Morning Line 2/1's in Maiden races on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better have been winning at a rate of 47% at Belmont going back to May 1st 2016


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesmdnbeldrtmlrs.jpg


You are getting a 39% return per $2 win wager in this situation


When you look at the Maiden Claiming races for the Morning Line 2/1's they are even more impressive


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesmdnclmbeldrtmlrs.jpg

So far, they have won 5 of their last 6 races and you are getting a 168% return per $2 win wager in Maiden Claiming races on the Dirt at 1 Mile or better


Let's keep an eye on this situation at Belmont!!!


It seems that back to back wins are usually followed by a loss for the Morning Line 2/1 Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont going 1 Mile or better

Let's see what happens today as there is a Morning Line 2/1 Maiden in the 6th race today at Belmont on the Dirt going at 1 Mile

6th race
#1 Pirates Treasure

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle
06-15-2017, 12:00 PM
The Morning Line 5/2's have been on a tear over the past 3 racing days at Belmont they have won 11 out of their last 18 races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwosbelthrdays.jpg

I spotted it on June 10th and was sure it would have dissolved by today but I was wrong as the Morning Line 5/2's won 4 of their 6 races today

I just didn't think it would happen only 4 horses paid under $8 today and the Morning Line 5/2's had 3 of the 4

I am not sure what they will do tomorrow but I will be paying attention to them especially at Distances of 1 Mile or better!!!

Here are the Morning Line 5/2's entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better at Belmont today

4th race
#4 Kitty Maddnes

6th race
#6 Sicilia Mike

Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont!!!

TheOracle
06-16-2017, 12:24 AM
It seems that back to back wins are usually followed by a loss for the Morning Line 2/1 Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont going 1 Mile or better

Let's see what happens today as there is a Morning Line 2/1 Maiden in the 6th race today at Belmont on the Dirt going at 1 Mile

6th race
#1 Pirates Treasure

Let's see what happens!!!

Well we were correct the Morning Line 2/1 Maidens on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better after back to back wins were followed by losses 4 times going back to May 2016

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesbelmdnsmlebtr.jpg


Today was no different as #1 Pirates Treasure finished 2nd in the 6th race today

Hopefully, the next Maiden with a 2/1 Morning Line on the Dirt going 1 Mile or better will win

TheOracle
06-16-2017, 12:41 AM
Here are the Morning Line 5/2's entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better at Belmont today

4th race
#4 Kitty Maddnes

6th race
#6 Sicilia Mike

Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont!!!

Well #6 Sicilia Mike finished 3rd as a 5/2 Morning Line going 1 Mile or better

However, #4 Kitty Maddnes won the 4th race and paid $18.20 across the board not too shabby for a $2 win place and show wager!!!

The Morning Line 5/2's at Belmont have been on fire since June 10th winning 12 of their last 21 giving you an 83% return per $2 win wager!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwobeljunten.jpg

In addition, when they have been entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better they are 6 for their last 9

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwomlebtrbel.jpg


You are getting 118% on your money per $2 win wager

I will continue to keep an eye on this trend for as long as it lasts at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and was able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle
06-16-2017, 01:37 PM
Well #6 Sicilia Mike finished 3rd as a 5/2 Morning Line going 1 Mile or better

However, #4 Kitty Maddnes won the 4th race and paid $18.20 across the board not too shabby for a $2 win place and show wager!!!

The Morning Line 5/2's at Belmont have been on fire since June 10th winning 12 of their last 21 giving you an 83% return per $2 win wager!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwobeljunten.jpg

In addition, when they have been entered at Distances of 1 Mile or better they are 6 for their last 9

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwomlebtrbel.jpg


You are getting 118% on your money per $2 win wager

I will continue to keep an eye on this trend for as long as it lasts at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and was able to make a profit!!!

Here are today's Morning Line 5/2's going 1 Mile or better at Belmont

5th race
#5 Party Mint Star

7th race
#4 Phat Man (MTO)

Let's see if one of these can get the win today!!!

Dave Schwartz
06-16-2017, 02:19 PM
I've been following this thread because I find "trend following" an interesting approach to handicap.

Oracle, have you considered that looking backwards, one will always be able to see what HAS BEEN HOT?

If you doubt that, just go to a casino and stand next to a roulette wheel.

One may see patterns based upon color, odd or even, halves or thirds, and occasionally things really outlandish.

I mean no disrespect, but what you are doing here is REPORTING the PAST as opposed to PREDICTING the FUTURE.


All good fun but I would not put money on this.


Dave

TheOracle
06-16-2017, 02:55 PM
I've been following this thread because I find "trend following" an interesting approach to handicap.

Oracle, have you considered that looking backwards, one will always be able to see what HAS BEEN HOT?

If you doubt that, just go to a casino and stand next to a roulette wheel.

One may see patterns based upon color, odd or even, halves or thirds, and occasionally things really outlandish.

I mean no disrespect, but what you are doing here is REPORTING the PAST as opposed to PREDICTING the FUTURE.


All good fun but I would not put money on this.


Dave

Hey Dave

I can't predict the future but the best I can do is examine the past and try to learn from it, basically I have given up on handicapping it just doesn't work for me so I try to follow the streaks until they run their course

Believe it or not I have actually cashed more tickets following streaks than I ever have by handicapping some times at a profit

It's obviously not for everyone but for now it works for me

To each his own I guess

Also, to your point about the casinos red vs green or odd vs even those are the stats that intrigue me I guess I would rather be in the know than to just play randomly

It may not increase my chance of winning but I'm sure the casinos would rather not have people know those stats

So yes, Dave you are correct I am just reporting the past and hoping some of the trends hold I'm not trying to predict the future that's a bit beyond me right now

TheOracle
06-16-2017, 03:39 PM
I've been following this thread because I find "trend following" an interesting approach to handicap.

Oracle, have you considered that looking backwards, one will always be able to see what HAS BEEN HOT?

If you doubt that, just go to a casino and stand next to a roulette wheel.

One may see patterns based upon color, odd or even, halves or thirds, and occasionally things really outlandish.

I mean no disrespect, but what you are doing here is REPORTING the PAST as opposed to PREDICTING the FUTURE.


All good fun but I would not put money on this.


Dave

Hey Dave

I've also added a new wrinkle when looking into the past I've started to examine the cold streaks also to see if they turn hot:


Well #9 Bustin It busted through today for a win only paid $8.10 across the board

Sometimes you just have to take what they give you!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelmdnsnpdrt.jpg


Let's see if a win streak emerges for the Morning Lines ending in 5 for Claimers on the Dirt in this situation!!!

The Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 have been struggling in Claiming races at Belmont on the Dirt they have just 2 wins in their last 11 attempts since this post


There's a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Claiming race on the Dirt in the 1st race today at Belmont

1st race
#2 Wildcat Belle

Let's see if the wildcat can get a win streak going!!!

Dave Schwartz
06-16-2017, 03:54 PM
Hey Dave

I can't predict the future but the best I can do is examine the past and try to learn from it, basically I have given up on handicapping it just doesn't work for me so I try to follow the streaks until they run their course

Believe it or not I have actually cashed more tickets following streaks than I ever have by handicapping some times at a profit

It's obviously not for everyone but for now it works for me

To each his own I guess

Also, to your point about the casinos red vs green or odd vs even those are the stats that intrigue me I guess I would rather be in the know than to just play randomly

It may not increase my chance of winning but I'm sure the casinos would rather not have people know those stats

So yes, Dave you are correct I am just reporting the past and hoping some of the trends hold I'm not trying to predict the future that's a bit beyond me right now

My favorite quote (which I use over and over again) is, "If it is working for you, keep doing it."

And I do enjoy your reports. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:


Dave

TheOracle
06-17-2017, 12:26 AM
Here are today's Morning Line 5/2's going 1 Mile or better at Belmont

5th race
#5 Party Mint Star

7th race
#4 Phat Man (MTO)

Let's see if one of these can get the win today!!!

Well #5 Party Mint Star finished off the board breaking a streak of 6 in a row that hit the board

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesbeldrtmlrs.jpg

I will continue to keep an eye on Morning Line 5/2's going 1 Mile or better at Belmont !!!

TheOracle
06-17-2017, 12:38 AM
Hey Dave

I've also added a new wrinkle when looking into the past I've started to examine the cold streaks also to see if they turn hot:




The Morning Line Favorites ending in 5 have been struggling in Claiming races at Belmont on the Dirt they have just 2 wins in their last 11 attempts since this post


There's a Morning Line ending in 5 in a Claiming race on the Dirt in the 1st race today at Belmont

1st race
#2 Wildcat Belle

Let's see if the wildcat can get a win streak going!!!


The Morning Line 5ers continue to struggle in Claiming races on the Dirt they now have just 2 wins in their last 12 attempts at Belmont since opening day


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml%20fiversclmbeldrt.jpg

I would not have suspected that the Morning Line 5ers would be struggling this much with Claiming races on the Dirt

Hopefully things will turn around to bring that win percentage up to around 35 to 40%!!!

TheOracle
06-18-2017, 03:40 PM
Well #7 New Money Honey came through with a win hopefully there will be a few more wins on the way with the Morning Line 5ers in Stakes races on the Turf!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivestakestrfbelstrk.jpg


This now makes 20 of the last 23 finishing no worse than 2nd and you are getting a 30% return per $2 win wager in this situation!!!


Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

Roca Rojo finished off the board last week so the above percentages have changed

Let's see how #2 Projected does in the 8th race today at Belmont as he is listed at 6/5 in the Morning Line for the Stakes race at Belmont

It seems C C Brown has hedged the above with these:
#1 Night Prowler and #6 Catapult

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle
06-20-2017, 10:53 AM
Roca Rojo finished off the board last week so the above percentages have changed

Let's see how #2 Projected does in the 8th race today at Belmont as he is listed at 6/5 in the Morning Line for the Stakes race at Belmont

It seems C C Brown has hedged the above with these:
#1 Night Prowler and #6 Catapult

Let's see what happens!!!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2186945#post2186945

It's very interesting that Brown had 3 horses entered in an 8 horse race

So that meant his horses had a 37.5% chance of winning and they some how managed to blow it of course he still picks up his earnings but the public is left scratching their heads

TheOracle
06-23-2017, 12:34 AM
The Morning Line 5/2 Claimers have been doing quite well on the Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwoclmrsbel.jpg

They have won 7 of their last 8 races giving a 92% return per $2 win wager!!!

Let's see if they can keep it going for the rest of the Belmont season!!!

TheOracle
06-24-2017, 01:17 PM
Since May 1st 2016, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 13 of their last 20 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivebeltrf.jpg


Per $2 win wager you are getting a 31% return on your money, in addition, 17 of the last 20 have finished no worse than 2nd

This is one of the trends that is yielding a positive return so far and my hope is that the trend continues a few more times before going cold!!!

Since this post, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 15 of their last 25 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont giving a 19% return per $2 win wager at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelstkstrf.jpg
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelstkstrf

C C Brown has this today in the 8th race at Belmont
8th race
#6 Rubilinda

Interesting to note, the oddsmaker uses many of C C Brown's horses as the Morning Line Favorite

They have however lost their last 2 races and the last time back to back losses happened was on September 11, 2016


Let's see if #6 Rubilinda can get this trend back on the winning track today at Belmont!!!

TheOracle
06-25-2017, 12:04 PM
Since this post, the Morning Lines ending in 5 have won 15 of their last 25 Stakes races on the Turf at Belmont giving a 19% return per $2 win wager at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelstkstrf.jpg
http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fiversbelstkstrf

C C Brown has this today in the 8th race at Belmont
8th race
#6 Rubilinda

Interesting to note, the oddsmaker uses many of C C Brown's horses as the Morning Line Favorite

They have however lost their last 2 races and the last time back to back losses happened was on September 11, 2016


Let's see if #6 Rubilinda can get this trend back on the winning track today at Belmont!!!

#6 Rubilinda was scratched yesterday we will have to wait for another opportunity for this situation!!!

TheOracle
09-10-2017, 01:22 PM
The Morning Line 5/2 Claimers have been doing quite well on the Turf

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml fivetwoclmrsbel.jpg

They have won 7 of their last 8 races giving a 92% return per $2 win wager!!!

Let's see if they can keep it going for the rest of the Belmont season!!!

Claimers who are 5/2 in the Morning Line on the Turf have been doing quite well this year and I missed Shamcat on opening day for Belmont's 2nd half!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/commentsm l fivetwotrfclmbel.jpghttp://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l fivetwotrfclmbel.jpg

Let's keep an eye on this phenomenon for the 2nd half of the Belmont season!!!

TheOracle
09-28-2017, 12:27 PM
Brown's Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been doing well on the Dirt at Belmont lately

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c browndrtlssthrbel.jpg

Let's see what Brown does with these today


4th race
#4 Devine Union

8th race
#5 Going for Broke

Maybe he can get both of these to win today at Belmont as the Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been struggling since last week as they are 8 for their last 45 and 0 for their last 9 attempts!!!

TheOracle
09-29-2017, 09:37 AM
Brown's Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been doing well on the Dirt at Belmont lately

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c browndrtlssthrbel.jpg

Let's see what Brown does with these today


4th race
#4 Devine Union

8th race
#5 Going for Broke

Maybe he can get both of these to win today at Belmont as the Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been struggling since last week as they are 8 for their last 45 and 0 for their last 9 attempts!!!

Both of Brown's horses disappointed yesterday as #4 Devine Union
finished 3rd and #5 Going for Broke finished 2nd at Belmont

The Morning Lines less than 3-1 continue to struggle as they went 3 for 13 yesterday!!!

Maybe this is where Trainers that don't normally do well get their chance to shine

At any rate, let's see if Brown's horses can get off the slide in this situation!!!

TheOracle
09-30-2017, 10:54 AM
Brown's Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been doing well on the Dirt at Belmont lately

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c browndrtlssthrbel.jpg

Let's see what Brown does with these today


4th race
#4 Devine Union

8th race
#5 Going for Broke

Maybe he can get both of these to win today at Belmont as the Morning Lines less than 3-1 have been struggling since last week as they are 8 for their last 45 and 0 for their last 9 attempts!!!


Both #4 Devine Union and #5 Going for Broke really disappointed on Thursday

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/c c browndrtmlebtr.jpg

These were for Morning Lines less than 3-1 going 1 Mile or better for Brown

TheOracle
10-05-2017, 12:59 PM
Since June 18 2016, the Morning Line 2/1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont have won 17 of their last 29 races

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrf.jpg

You are getting a 41% return on your money per $2 win wager

In addition, 24 of the 29 have finished no worse than 2nd

I am keeping a very close eye on this situation and hopefully there will be a few more wins coming before the trend goes cold!!!


Since this post the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont have had diminished returns you are only getting a 19% return per $2 win wager in this situation

Those finishing no worse than 2nd are now 30 of 41

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrflsml.jpg


Let's see if things change today as there is a Morning Line 2-1 in the 1st race

1st race
#5 Mattys Magnum

Let's see if #5 Mattys Magnum can turn the tide and get a win today for this situation!!!

TheOracle
10-14-2017, 01:45 PM
Since this post the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont have had diminished returns you are only getting a 19% return per $2 win wager in this situation

Those finishing no worse than 2nd are now 30 of 41

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonebeltrflsml.jpg


Let's see if things change today as there is a Morning Line 2-1 in the 1st race

1st race
#5 Mattys Magnum

Let's see if #5 Mattys Magnum can turn the tide and get a win today for this situation!!!


Since this post #5 Mattys Magnum ran 2nd but it will not be included in the study as that race was at 1M 1/16th

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l twoonestrflssmlbel.jpg

However, #3 Heavenly Score won last week and paid $17.10 across the board as the Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf going at 7 Furlongs!!!

There is another Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf going at 6 Furlongs today at Belmont in the 4th race

4th race
#9 Epping Forest

Let's see if Clement can keep the wins coming in this situation!!!

TheOracle
10-15-2017, 12:09 AM
Since this post #5 Mattys Magnum ran 2nd but it will not be included in the study as that race was at 1M 1/16th

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l twoonestrflssmlbel.jpg

However, #3 Heavenly Score won last week and paid $17.10 across the board as the Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf going at 7 Furlongs!!!

There is another Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf going at 6 Furlongs today at Belmont in the 4th race

4th race
#9 Epping Forest

Let's see if Clement can keep the wins coming in this situation!!!


Well #9 Epping Forest came through for us and Clement kept the wins going for this situation it only paid $9 across the board but hey we will take it beggars can't be choosers!!!

This now makes 3 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l twoonestrfsprnbel.jpg

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

TheOracle
10-18-2017, 02:56 PM
Well #9 Epping Forest came through for us and Clement kept the wins going for this situation it only paid $9 across the board but hey we will take it beggars can't be choosers!!!

This now makes 3 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m l twoonestrfsprnbel.jpg

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

There is another Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf going at 7 Furlongs today at Belmont in the 6th race:

6th race
#6 Barbarossa

Let's see if Pletcher can keep the win streak going in this situation!!!

TheOracle
10-19-2017, 11:33 AM
There is another Morning Line 2-1 on the Turf going at 7 Furlongs today at Belmont in the 6th race:

6th race
#6 Barbarossa

Let's see if Pletcher can keep the win streak going in this situation!!!

Well Pletcher came through on his end of the deal and kept the streak going the Morning Line 2-1's in Sprint races on the Turf have won 4 straight races since September 28th as #6 Barbarossa won yesterday paying $10.80 across the board not too shabby for a favorite!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/m ltwoonesprnttrfbel.jpg

You are now getting a 31% return per $2 win wager since June 18, 2016!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!

Let's hope the streak continues!!!

TheOracle
10-25-2017, 10:41 AM
Since this post #3 Discretionary Marq was off the board and broke a streak of 4 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesbellsmltrf.jpg

If the races stay on the Turf there are two Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile today at Belmont!!!

1st race
#11 Crazy About Jazz

5th race
#1 Curlins New Moon /1A Ambassador Jim

Let's see if one of these will get the win today to put the streak back on the right track!!!

TheOracle
10-26-2017, 12:11 AM
Since this post #3 Discretionary Marq was off the board and broke a streak of 4 wins in a row for the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile at Belmont

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonesbellsmltrf.jpg

If the races stay on the Turf there are two Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile today at Belmont!!!

1st race
#11 Crazy About Jazz

5th race
#1 Curlins New Moon /1A Ambassador Jim

Let's see if one of these will get the win today to put the streak back on the right track!!!

Well #11 Crazy About Jazz was scratched but 1A Ambassador Jim came through paying $10.30 across the board putting the Morning Line 2-1's on the Turf going less than 1 Mile back on the right track at Belmont!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/ml twoonestrfbellsml.jpg

I will continue to watch this phenomenon at Belmont for some reason it keeps happening has has been doing so for more than a year!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the 1A Ambassador Jim play and were able to make a profit!!!