Cratos
05-05-2017, 07:32 PM
I am not sure what the weather will be tomorrow at Churchill Downs at Derby time which should be between 6p-7p, but given what is happening now and what is forecasted to happen, I expect a muddy to drying out track when the Derby race goes off.
Therefore, who will be the Derby contenders and who will be the Derby pretenders to get the bed of roses?
A case might be able to be made for several different horses, but I come down to four and they are in order of preference:
Classic Empire – This horse broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in the off goings albeit it was a sprint and his breeding suggests the off goings shouldn’t affect his performance.
Adding to this, his Arkansas Derby victory gives him a performance with turns virtually the same as Churchill and “turn size” is a major adjustment to a shipping horse.
I have him getting the last 1/8M of the Arkansas Derby in 12.46 seconds which projects the last quarter of the Derby for him to be 24.90 seconds.
Lastly, if there is a negative to this horse, it is his jockey Julian Leparoux; he can make a race an adventure.
Always Dreaming – Some might consider his trainer, Todd Pletcher “snake bit” when it comes to the Derby, but my question is: “Did he always have the horse to win the Derby?” Probably not, but given his status as a premier trainer, I assume he gets offers to enter many horses; some who are not Derby material.
However, Always Dreaming appears to be legit and after coming to Pletcher’s barn with Velazquez in the irons he has been very good and the Florida Derby was his “coming out” party.
Always Dreaming was very professional in the Florida Derby although being wide in the first turn, Velazquez could settle him down and move him closer to the rail where he would catch the leader, Three Rules in the fourth quarter and draw off to an authoritative 6-1/2 length victory in a good 1:47.47 final time while getting the last 1/8M in 12.53 seconds.
Practical Joke - This horse might be a stretch, but he is intriguing and deserves to be in the conversation.
In the Bluegrass Stakes his cumulative pace average (feet/second) was equal to or greater than any other horse in the race for any segment of the race.
At the mile mark of that race he was timed in 1:37.70 seconds against the eventual winner, Irap time of 1:37.52 seconds, the story when closely examined is a bit different because while Irap had a .18 second lead over Practical Joke at the mile, Practical Joke loss .16 seconds more than Irap because of turn effect making the difference only .02 seconds or virtually a dead heat.
Its gets better in the final 1/8M where Practical Joke out run Irap 13.02 seconds to 13.07 seconds and to lose the race by .13 seconds which can be attributed to `his turn effect time loss at the mile point of the race.
State of Honor – This horse is notorious for taking the lead and faltering at the end, but the probable off track should allow him to carry his speed longer; therefore, hanging on for part of the Superfecta.
Therefore, who will be the Derby contenders and who will be the Derby pretenders to get the bed of roses?
A case might be able to be made for several different horses, but I come down to four and they are in order of preference:
Classic Empire – This horse broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in the off goings albeit it was a sprint and his breeding suggests the off goings shouldn’t affect his performance.
Adding to this, his Arkansas Derby victory gives him a performance with turns virtually the same as Churchill and “turn size” is a major adjustment to a shipping horse.
I have him getting the last 1/8M of the Arkansas Derby in 12.46 seconds which projects the last quarter of the Derby for him to be 24.90 seconds.
Lastly, if there is a negative to this horse, it is his jockey Julian Leparoux; he can make a race an adventure.
Always Dreaming – Some might consider his trainer, Todd Pletcher “snake bit” when it comes to the Derby, but my question is: “Did he always have the horse to win the Derby?” Probably not, but given his status as a premier trainer, I assume he gets offers to enter many horses; some who are not Derby material.
However, Always Dreaming appears to be legit and after coming to Pletcher’s barn with Velazquez in the irons he has been very good and the Florida Derby was his “coming out” party.
Always Dreaming was very professional in the Florida Derby although being wide in the first turn, Velazquez could settle him down and move him closer to the rail where he would catch the leader, Three Rules in the fourth quarter and draw off to an authoritative 6-1/2 length victory in a good 1:47.47 final time while getting the last 1/8M in 12.53 seconds.
Practical Joke - This horse might be a stretch, but he is intriguing and deserves to be in the conversation.
In the Bluegrass Stakes his cumulative pace average (feet/second) was equal to or greater than any other horse in the race for any segment of the race.
At the mile mark of that race he was timed in 1:37.70 seconds against the eventual winner, Irap time of 1:37.52 seconds, the story when closely examined is a bit different because while Irap had a .18 second lead over Practical Joke at the mile, Practical Joke loss .16 seconds more than Irap because of turn effect making the difference only .02 seconds or virtually a dead heat.
Its gets better in the final 1/8M where Practical Joke out run Irap 13.02 seconds to 13.07 seconds and to lose the race by .13 seconds which can be attributed to `his turn effect time loss at the mile point of the race.
State of Honor – This horse is notorious for taking the lead and faltering at the end, but the probable off track should allow him to carry his speed longer; therefore, hanging on for part of the Superfecta.