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PowerUpPaynter
04-15-2017, 11:16 PM
https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/853430668407300096

Julz
04-16-2017, 12:03 AM
Thanks for info and the work put into it. I think Gunnevera deserves some extra consideration for the derby. Even though he lost to always dreaming, his final times were outstanding, considering up until that race, posts 9 through 12 at Gulfstream had a winning total of 3 out of 122 starts. I believe he was post 11 or 12. Add in the fact that he didn't need the race, and he is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. No long shot by any means, but you should get decent value.

Fager Fan
04-16-2017, 12:09 AM
The Buckpasser and RAN columns, are x's there supposed to be good or bad? Personally, I'm not a fan of RAN, and I am not aware of a substantial Buckpasser link?

Augenj
04-16-2017, 12:13 AM
Thanks for this and the work you did to create it. :)

Julz
04-16-2017, 12:25 AM
Buckpasser in the X passing position is a great angle when it comes to winning the derby. So yes, it is a good thing. I would like to give credit to Stan Caris as it is his research that has come up with this. It has a very positive derby winning impact value coupled with his fast final fractions.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 12:33 AM
Buckpasser in the X passing position is a great angle when it comes to winning the derby. So yes, it is a good thing. I would like to give credit to Stan Caris as it is his research that has come up with this. It has a very positive derby winning impact value coupled with his fast final fractions.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Fred Mertz
04-16-2017, 01:27 AM
Thanks PuPaynter.

I printed them out and will pass them to my capper buddy as a guide or tool. I hope they're accurate.

I now have 8 KD horses - :bang:

Thanks a lot and cheers.

Edit: If Future Wager favorite McCraken doesn't make it I'll have 7.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 02:36 AM
All hail to the Power.

Thank you. :ThmbUp:

kevb
04-16-2017, 09:40 AM
Thunder snow last 1/8 = 12 4/5 (last 200 meters x 1.055)

http://bit.ly/2n3iuiQ

Cratos
04-16-2017, 11:15 AM
https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/853430668407300096

Correct me if I am misreading the chart in your post, but it is stating that Gunnevera ran the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby in 12-1/5 seconds and Always Dreaming in the same race had a last 1/8M in 12-2/5 seconds.

I disagree on both metrics and furthermore when the work metric is considered for the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby Always Dreaming was less fatigue than Gunnevera.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 11:38 AM
Correct me if I am misreading the chart in your post, but it is stating that Gunnevera ran the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby in 12-1/5 seconds and Always Dreaming in the same race had a last 1/8M in 12-2/5 seconds.

I disagree on both metrics and furthermore when the work metric is considered for the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby Always Dreaming was less fatigue than Gunnevera.

In 100ths of a second Gunnevera 12.23 Always Dreaming 12.53, so it is correct when rounded into 5ths of a second.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 11:41 AM
Always Dreaming is very vulnerable. Won the Florida Derby when all the speed held. His only other 2 routes where low beyers and soft paces he was able to sit on. I think he might be fools gold. Not much of a fan.

Julz
04-16-2017, 12:25 PM
Are you able to calculate the last 3/8 for Sonneteer. I watched the race again and he looked as if he were coming home fastest of all. I read somewhere that he ran it in 36/2?? Could that be accurate? Thanks again for taking the time to provide the info. Much appreciated.

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 01:48 PM
Are you able to calculate the last 3/8 for Sonneteer. I watched the race again and he looked as if he were coming home fastest of all. I read somewhere that he ran it in 36/2?? Could that be accurate? Thanks again for taking the time to provide the info. Much appreciated.

in 100ths of a second = 35.97

Secondbest
04-16-2017, 03:07 PM
Thanks PuP

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 03:09 PM
in 100ths of a second = 35.97

No shit?:popcorn:

f2tornado
04-16-2017, 04:40 PM
No shit?:popcorn:

No shit. He went from 24 lengths behind the leader at 6F to within 4 at the wire.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 04:46 PM
No shit. He went from 24 lengths behind the leader at 6F to within 4 at the wire.

23rd in points with likely no chance to get in.

Last year's Maiden was a joke, this year's Maiden is no joke.

rsetup
04-16-2017, 05:01 PM
No shit. He went from 24 lengths behind the leader at 6F to within 4 at the wire.


Sonneteer in the Arkansas Derby?

CincyHorseplayer
04-16-2017, 08:06 PM
Betting Gunnevera in the Derby. Nobody changing my mind. I haven't felt this secure about a pick in years. And if it fails it's 1 race. Who gives a rat's arse?!:)

Tee
04-16-2017, 08:15 PM
There is no point in the Arkansas Derby where Sonneteer was 24 lengths behind the leader.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 08:30 PM
Betting Gunnevera in the Derby. Nobody changing my mind. I haven't felt this secure about a pick in years. And if it fails it's 1 race. Who gives a rat's arse?!:)


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh................... Cincy. Be very very quiet. We are hunting roses.

Say nary a word more, and hopefully Gunny will go off at 12/1.

CincyHorseplayer
04-16-2017, 08:34 PM
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh................... Cincy. Be very very quiet. We are hunting roses.

Say nary a word more, and hopefully Gunny will go off at 12/1.

Fingers crossed. Mum's the word!

Longshot
04-16-2017, 09:04 PM
There is no point in the Arkansas Derby where Sonneteer was 24 lengths behind the leader.

You are correct according to the official chart.

At the 1/4 he was 11th by 12 1/4
At the 1/2 he was 11th by 11 3/4
At the 3/4 he was 10th by 9 3/4
At the finish he was 4th by 2

If I figure it correctly the leader ran the 3/4 in 1:11.16
If he was 9 3/4 back he ran the 3/4 in 1:13.11
The winner finished in 1:48.93
If he was 2 lengths back he finished in 1:49.33

1:49.33 - 1:13.11 gives him a final 3/8 of 36.22

PowerUpPaynter
04-16-2017, 09:39 PM
You are correct according to the official chart.

At the 1/4 he was 11th by 12 1/4
At the 1/2 he was 11th by 11 3/4
At the 3/4 he was 10th by 9 3/4
At the finish he was 4th by 2

If I figure it correctly the leader ran the 3/4 in 1:11.16
If he was 9 3/4 back he ran the 3/4 in 1:13.11
The winner finished in 1:48.93
If he was 2 lengths back he finished in 1:49.33

1:49.33 - 1:13.11 gives him a final 3/8 of 36.22


you are right, i stand corrected. 36.22

Julz
04-16-2017, 09:39 PM
Sorry to both on Gunnevera. Don't want to jinx you both but I love him too. He has that derby winning move, even watching olds replays like the delta jackpot, he makes that move that looks like the others are standing still. And he keeps moving and doesn't stop. I wrote earlier in another thread that his loss in the Florida derby was from the 11 or 12 post. As of that day horses at gulf route races from post 9 through 12 won only 3 of 122 races. Add to that, he didn't need the race and STILL came home in 36 1/5 (I think). Best thing he could have done was lose. Hope I'm not "The Mush" on this one. Good luck.

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 09:46 PM
Sorry to both on Gunnevera. Don't want to jinx you both but I love him too. He has that derby winning move, even watching olds replays like the delta jackpot, he makes that move that looks like the others are standing still. And he keeps moving and doesn't stop. I wrote earlier in another thread that his loss in the Florida derby was from the 11 or 12 post. As of that day horses at gulf route races from post 9 through 12 won only 3 of 122 races. Add to that, he didn't need the race and STILL came home in 36 1/5 (I think). Best thing he could have done was lose. Hope I'm not "The Mush" on this one. Good luck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_Uks7D2vEo

Cratos
04-16-2017, 11:12 PM
In 100ths of a second Gunnevera 12.23 Always Dreaming 12.53, so it is correct when rounded into 5ths of a second.

I am not sure where your data came from to support your assertion of Gunnevera running the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby 12.23 seconds, but I attached my chart of the Florida Derby using Trakus data and in it you will find that Gunnevera closed the last 1/8M in 12.67 seconds which is slower than Always Dreaming 1-1/8M time of 12.53 seconds and using DRF data it is 13.04 seconds.

However, let’s compare Gunnevra entire FL Derby performance to Always Dreaming and we will see the following:

¼ Mile
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.41 seconds
½ Mile
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.28 seconds
¾ Mile
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.30 seconds
1M
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.20 seconds
Finish
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.30 seconds

Conclusion: Gunnevera gained a paltry .11 seconds on Always Dreaming during the race and was “outworked” by Always Dreaming, 17.22 MJ to 16.93 MJ.

Lastly, Gunnevera in the Ky Derby will be running at Churchill Downs which will be unfavorable to his running style with respect to turns with the turn radii shrinking approximately 26% less than Gulfstream Park.

f2tornado
04-16-2017, 11:24 PM
There is no point in the Arkansas Derby where Sonneteer was 24 lengths behind the leader.

Correct. Silly me was looking at the wrong chart on Equibase when adding those up. He still closed extremely fast pulling in 8 lengths on the leaders in final 3/8th. He looked even further back to my eye. He would need three defections to get in. Could happen. Perhaps just a Suddenbreakingnews clone that can't get it done against classy company.

Julz
04-16-2017, 11:33 PM
Haha! I did apologize beforehand!!

Lemon Drop Husker
04-16-2017, 11:35 PM
I am not sure where your data came from to support your assertion of Gunnevera running the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby 12.23 seconds, but I attached my chart of the Florida Derby using Trakus data and in it you will find that Gunnevera closed the last 1/8M in 12.67 seconds which is slower than Always Dreaming 1-1/8M time of 12.53 seconds and using DRF data it is 13.04 seconds.

However, let’s compare Gunnevra entire FL Derby performance to Always Dreaming and we will see the following:

¼ Mile
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.41 seconds
½ Mile
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.28 seconds
¾ Mile
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.30 seconds
1M
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.20 seconds
Finish
Gunnevera behind Always Dreaming by 1.30 seconds

Conclusion: Gunnevera gained a paltry .11 seconds on Always Dreaming during the race and was “outworked” by Always Dreaming, 17.22 MJ to 16.93 MJ.

Lastly, Gunnevera in the Ky Derby will be running at Churchill Downs which will be unfavorable to his running style with respect to turns with the turn radii shrinking approximately 26% less than Gulfstream Park.

Thanks Cratos. It didn't seem right from my eye. Gunny was behind. Was always behind, and never seemed to make up ground on the actual winner regardless of who he may have passed.

Then again, I hope like hell Always Dreaming takes a huge amount of money on Derby day. ;)

PowerUpPaynter
04-17-2017, 08:06 AM
Using equibase Gunnevera finished the race in 1:48.77 and hit the 8th pole at 1:36.54 which using those numbers would leave 12.23.

Cratos
04-17-2017, 10:20 AM
Using equibase Gunnevera finished the race in 1:48.77 and hit the 8th pole at 1:36.54 which using those numbers would leave 12.23.

Using Equibase/DRF data and using the conventional metric of .17 sec/length you should get the following:

(97.47+1.105) -(94.94+.595) =13.04 seconds for Gunnevera last 1/8M in the Florida Derby.

However, if you use the more realistic metric of .14 sec/ length you should get 12.95 seconds.

The 12.23 metric stated by you is fantasy.

rsetup
04-17-2017, 05:20 PM
Using Equibase/DRF data and using the conventional metric of .17 sec/length you should get the following:

(97.47+1.105) -(94.94+.595) =13.04 seconds for Gunnevera last 1/8M in the Florida Derby.

However, if you use the more realistic metric of .14 sec/ length you should get 12.95 seconds.

The 12.23 metric stated by you is fantasy.

Actually, it's not. You've mixed up a couple of sources.

When a horse gains lengths on the leader over a particular distance, it follows that it ran that portion faster than the leader.

Per TRAKUS:

Gunnevera was 7.25 lengths BEHIND at the MILE
He finished 7.5 lengths behind. Which is why his FINAL EIGHTH is SLOWER than AD's.

Per EQUIBASE, which DRF uses, BTW:

Gunnevera was 8 lengths BEHIND at the MILE
and finished 6.5 lengths BEHIND. He gained 1.5 lengths per EQUIBASE data and THUS RAN A FASTER LAST EIGHTH.

The point is not which source is correct but, rather, that this evident information escaped you.

Is that a fantasy?

Cratos
04-17-2017, 08:48 PM
Actually, it's not. You've mixed up a couple of sources.

When a horse gains lengths on the leader over a particular distance, it follows that it ran that portion faster than the leader.

Per TRAKUS:

Gunnevera was 7.25 lengths BEHIND at the MILE
He finished 7.5 lengths behind. Which is why his FINAL EIGHTH is SLOWER than AD's.

Per EQUIBASE, which DRF uses, BTW:

Gunnevera was 8 lengths BEHIND at the MILE
and finished 6.5 lengths BEHIND. He gained 1.5 lengths per EQUIBASE data and THUS RAN A FASTER LAST EIGHTH.

The point is not which source is correct but, rather, that this evident information escaped you.

Is that a fantasy?

Okay I will go through the elementary steps to appease you.

The Equibase charts have the POC time at the mile for Always Dreaming at 1:34.34 seconds which converts to 94.34 seconds.

The Equibase charts have Guinevera being 1 length behind State of Honor at the stretch call and State of Honor being 2-1/2 lengths behind Always Dreaming; the stretch call is 1/8M from the finish.

Using .17sec/length as the length-to-time metric and adding the lengths behind Always Dreaming; Guinevere 3-1/2 lengths behind.

Multiplying 3.5*.17 = .595 and adding it to Always Dreaming’s 1M time and Guinevere’s 1M time becomes .595+94.34 = 94.94 seconds for the mile.

At the 1-1/8M point (end of race), Gunnevera finished 1-1/2 lengths behind State of Honor who finished 5 lengths behind Always Dreaming. Converting this to time = (1-1/2+5) *.17 = 6.5*.17 = 1.105 and adding it to Always Dreaming’s 1-1/8M time of 107.47 seconds, Guinevera’s 1-1/8M time becomes 1.105+107.47 = 108.58 seconds for the 1-1/8M distance

Subtracting the difference = 108.58-94.94 = 13.64 seconds, Gunnevera finishing time for the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby.

Incidentally, I did make a typo in my initial post and stated Gunnevera finishing time for the final 1/8M as 13.04 as oppose to 13.64.

Trakus measurement is a “different animal” because it is a measurement of tangent vectors which measures displacement not distance. Equibase uses a scalar measurement which is a physical quantity that has magnitude only.

Mathematically, vectors combine with each other per the parallelogram rule of addition.

Yes, the quoted 12.23 seconds for Gunnevera final 1/8M in the Florida Derby is still a fantasy.

Kitan
04-18-2017, 04:16 AM
The Equibase charts have Guinevera being 1 length behind State of Honor at the stretch call and State of Honor being 2-1/2 lengths behind Always Dreaming; the stretch call is 1/8M from the finish.

Subtracting the difference = 108.58-94.94 = 13.64 seconds, Gunnevera finishing time for the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby.

Incidentally, I did make a typo in my initial post and stated Gunnevera finishing time for the final 1/8M as 13.04 as oppose to 13.64.

Trakus measurement is a “different animal”

Yes, the quoted 12.23 seconds for Gunnevera final 1/8M in the Florida Derby is still a fantasy.

I have not posted here in years so I do not know if this is a complete troll, but all of the above is what is actually fantasy.

At the stretch call, Equibase lists Gunnevera as being 5.5 lengths behind State of Honor. The 3¹ represents that he was 1 length ahead of the 4th place horse at that time. You will also see there is 4⁴ ¹/². 4.5 + 1 = 5.5. For future use, just scroll down on the chart and look at the past performance running line preview, it's much easier.

From watching the replay alone, I don't know how you could even say Gunnevera was 1 full second slower than the winner during the final 1/8th? According to the chart, Always Dreaming's last 1/8th was in 12.53. By the way, for this race you can see that the Equibase fractions and Trakus fractions are IDENTICAL (the exact lengths distances are slightly off). The conventional method shows that his final 1/8th was in 12 1/5 and Trakus says 12.67 (12 3/5).

For comparison's sake, over the same 9f distance Arrogate ran 3/5s faster than Always Dreaming (thus 1 3/5s than Gunnevera) and came home in 37 and 13. What the exact numbers from the Florida Derby are are irrelevant. What I know is that Gunnevera ran his final 3/8ths in 36 and change and the final 1/8th in 12 and change. When a race is run in 1:47 and change, I don't know what more you could have expected from Gunnevera? Is he supposed to have run superhorse times of 35 and 11? I'm not saying he will win at Churchill but as a closer in that race he couldn't have been expected to do much more.

Good luck in the Derby.

Cratos
04-18-2017, 10:02 AM
I have not posted here in years so I do not know if this is a complete troll, but all of the above is what is actually fantasy.

At the stretch call, Equibase lists Gunnevera as being 5.5 lengths behind State of Honor. The 3¹ represents that he was 1 length ahead of the 4th place horse at that time. You will also see there is 4⁴ ¹/². 4.5 + 1 = 5.5. For future use, just scroll down on the chart and look at the past performance running line preview, it's much easier.

From watching the replay alone, I don't know how you could even say Gunnevera was 1 full second slower than the winner during the final 1/8th? According to the chart, Always Dreaming's last 1/8th was in 12.53. By the way, for this race you can see that the Equibase fractions and Trakus fractions are IDENTICAL (the exact lengths distances are slightly off). The conventional method shows that his final 1/8th was in 12 1/5 and Trakus says 12.67 (12 3/5).

For comparison's sake, over the same 9f distance Arrogate ran 3/5s faster than Always Dreaming (thus 1 3/5s than Gunnevera) and came home in 37 and 13. What the exact numbers from the Florida Derby are are irrelevant. What I know is that Gunnevera ran his final 3/8ths in 36 and change and the final 1/8th in 12 and change. When a race is run in 1:47 and change, I don't know what more you could have expected from Gunnevera? Is he supposed to have run superhorse times of 35 and 11? I'm not saying he will win at Churchill but as a closer in that race he couldn't have been expected to do much more.

Good luck in the Derby.

I wish you luck also, but the debate was that Gunnevera did not run his last 1/8M in 12.23 seconds which you conveniently avoided. Also, Trakus (which I use) had the two horses, Always dreaming and Gunnevera at 12.53 and 12.67 respectively for the last 1/8M and is stated in the attached chart in my initial post.

Again, the debate was using either Trakus or Equibase you cannot get 12.23 seconds for Gunnevera for the last 1/8M and that what is fantasy.

You should post more often.

Nitro
04-18-2017, 02:08 PM
Betting Gunnevera in the Derby. Nobody changing my mind. I haven't felt this secure about a pick in years. And if it fails it's 1 race. Who gives a rat's arse?!:)Not to worry Cincy I sure won’t try to change your mind. I think it’s funny how so many are talking about the final times of the race and completely ignoring the beginning of the race. First of all Gunnevera came out of the 11th slot. In order to gain any sort reasonable position, it had to expend additional energy early on. This of course would have affected its abilities later in the race. The pace being what it was in the FL Derby also didn’t help its cause because of its preferred running style. With a decent post in the KY Derby this one could certainly be one to consider.

But just don't leave out that 2nd KEY! ;)

PowerUpPaynter
04-18-2017, 09:38 PM
Updated


https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/854494100359442432

kevb
04-19-2017, 08:42 AM
Thanks.

CincyHorseplayer
04-22-2017, 04:55 AM
Not to worry Cincy I sure won’t try to change your mind. I think it’s funny how so many are talking about the final times of the race and completely ignoring the beginning of the race. First of all Gunnevera came out of the 11th slot. In order to gain any sort reasonable position, it had to expend additional energy early on. This of course would have affected its abilities later in the race. The pace being what it was in the FL Derby also didn’t help its cause because of its preferred running style. With a decent post in the KY Derby this one could certainly be one to consider.

But just don't leave out that 2nd KEY! ;)

My man! Good to see ya Nitro! I just like to see what I think is a good effort in last race but better 2 back. Distance bred fine. I usually waiver about a thousand times like a little school girl LOL! Can make max bet and sleep at night. Will check back in with ya at zero hour if I have a radical change of heart! That happens too. I am definitely a testament to Derby hysteria. So much fun! But pretty cut and dry these days.

upthecreek
04-22-2017, 11:02 AM
DERBY INDICATOR #1- Fast Final Fractions in a Big 5 Prep Race In order for a horse to qualify on this indicator it must fit the following rules 1) It must achieve a final 3/8 in 37.8 (37 4/5) seconds or less or a final eighth in 12.8 (12 4/5) seconds or less in a big 5 Prep race (Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass ) 2) it must not have run worse than fourth in its last start 3) it must not have run worse than fourth in the race that qualifies it on final fraction times 4) it must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of a big 5 prep race unless it shows No loss of ground in another big 5 prep race and 5) races over polytracks were omitted from this study.

Horses qualifying on Derby Indicator #1 have won the roses in 27 of the last 40 years.

PowerUpPaynter
04-22-2017, 11:25 AM
DERBY INDICATOR #1- Fast Final Fractions in a Big 5 Prep Race In order for a horse to qualify on this indicator it must fit the following rules 1) It must achieve a final 3/8 in 37.8 (37 4/5) seconds or less or a final eighth in 12.8 (12 4/5) seconds or less in a big 5 Prep race (Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass ) 2) it must not have run worse than fourth in its last start 3) it must not have run worse than fourth in the race that qualifies it on final fraction times 4) it must not have lost 2 lengths or more from the six furlong call to the finish of a big 5 prep race unless it shows No loss of ground in another big 5 prep race and 5) races over polytracks were omitted from this study.

Horses qualifying on Derby Indicator #1 have won the roses in 27 of the last 40 years.

out of how many qualifiers?

f2tornado
04-22-2017, 11:49 AM
out of how many qualifiers?

198 qualifiers from 680 starters (1973-2012) from Stanley's 2013 report available on American Turf. Perhaps I will update my copy this year. Every winner since then has met angle 1: Chrome, AP, Nyquist.

The Biscuit
04-22-2017, 06:16 PM
198 qualifiers from 680 starters (1973-2012) from Stanley's 2013 report available on American Turf. Perhaps I will update my copy this year. Every winner since then has met angle 1: Chrome, AP, Nyquist.


Who qualifies this year , with the contenders ?

Much appreciated !! :headbanger:

Tom
04-22-2017, 07:50 PM
Free on the internet......


http://www.americanturf.com/download/AnalyzingTheTripleCrown.pdf

Tom
04-22-2017, 07:58 PM
This one too...
http://www.americanturf.com/download/2013_kentucky_derby_checklist.pdf

sbcaris
04-22-2017, 09:03 PM
Biscuit: The qualifiers on my final fraction indicator this year are as follows:

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Patch
Girvin
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee

The reason why State of Honor does not qualify is because he lost 2 and a half lengths from the six furlong call to the finish of the Florida Derby.

The reason why Hence does not qualify is because the Sunland Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

Thunder Snow does not qualify because the UAE Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

The big 6 preps are the SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.

PowerUpPaynter
04-23-2017, 02:02 AM
Biscuit: The qualifiers on my final fraction indicator this year are as follows:

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Patch
Girvin
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee

The reason why State of Honor does not qualify is because he lost 2 and a half lengths from the six furlong call to the finish of the Florida Derby.

The reason why Hence does not qualify is because the Sunland Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

Thunder Snow does not qualify because the UAE Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

The big 6 preps are the SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.


And of those:

Classic Empire, Patch, Gunnevera are the only 3 have buckpasser in the X.

I really like Gunnevera and love Patch to clunk up at a price.

señorclipclop
04-23-2017, 03:17 AM
Biscuit: The qualifiers on my final fraction indicator this year are as follows:

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Patch
Girvin
Gunnevera
Practical Joke
Sonneteer
Lookin at Lee

The reason why State of Honor does not qualify is because he lost 2 and a half lengths from the six furlong call to the finish of the Florida Derby.

The reason why Hence does not qualify is because the Sunland Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

Thunder Snow does not qualify because the UAE Derby is not a big 6 prep race.

The big 6 preps are the SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Ark Derby, Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby.

My view, middle four aren't good enough/don't have the stamina, second one is set up for a bounce and BMS is weak, and the bottom two will have too much to do in the stretch.

Robert Fischer
04-23-2017, 11:36 AM
Patch is interesting. He kind of shadowed Girven in the LaD.

In order to like him, you have to be in the camp that predicts improvement.
Derby is a tough race to improve in.

sbcaris
04-23-2017, 03:02 PM
Many Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figs from their last race. Here is a list of those that improved:

Orb had a 97 in his last start and got a 104 in the Ky Derby
Ill Have Another had a 95 in his last start and got a 101 in the Ky Derby
Animal Kingdom had a 94 in his last start and a 103 in the Derby.
Super Saver had a 98 in his last start and a 104 in the Derby.
Mine that Bird went from an 80 in his last start to a 105 in the Derby

So in retrospect 5 of the last 8 Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figure from their last prep race to the Ky Derby (at least by a minimum of 6 Beyer points)

Sinner369
04-23-2017, 03:32 PM
Many Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figs from their last race. Here is a list of those that improved:

Orb had a 97 in his last start and got a 104 in the Ky Derby
Ill Have Another had a 95 in his last start and got a 101 in the Ky Derby
Animal Kingdom had a 94 in his last start and a 103 in the Derby.
Super Saver had a 98 in his last start and a 104 in the Derby.
Mine that Bird went from an 80 in his last start to a 105 in the Derby

So in retrospect 5 of the last 8 Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figure from their last prep race to the Ky Derby (at least by a minimum of 6 Beyer points)

That's fine but more interested in WHY?..............cause they are relatively young horses and the idea is to fine who will improve the most on the first Saturday in May!

PowerUpPaynter
04-23-2017, 03:37 PM
Many Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figs from their last race. Here is a list of those that improved:

Orb had a 97 in his last start and got a 104 in the Ky Derby
Ill Have Another had a 95 in his last start and got a 101 in the Ky Derby
Animal Kingdom had a 94 in his last start and a 103 in the Derby.
Super Saver had a 98 in his last start and a 104 in the Derby.
Mine that Bird went from an 80 in his last start to a 105 in the Derby

So in retrospect 5 of the last 8 Derby winners improved their Beyer speed figure from their last prep race to the Ky Derby (at least by a minimum of 6 Beyer points)

Stan will you follow your Buckpasser X & fast closinf fractions theory in your pick again this year? If so is it fair to say its down to Gunnevera, Patch, and Classic Empire then?

f2tornado
04-23-2017, 07:17 PM
Stan will you follow your Buckpasser X & fast closinf fractions theory in your pick again this year? If so is it fair to say its down to Gunnevera, Patch, and Classic Empire then?

Remember the Raise A Native sire line rules. Those with fast fractions get 4 more points per the extremely strong impact value. Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, (and Lookin at Lee if he gets a gate). I'm not fighting those stats. The chalk pair will be on top all my wagers and I will sprinkle in some Hence. I'm guessing Classic Empire will top the checklist. I'll probably buy the TC checklist this year. The Derby winner usually one of the top two on the sheet.

dballard125
04-23-2017, 07:29 PM
Remember the Raise A Native sire line rules. Those with fast fractions get 4 more points per the extremely strong impact value. Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, (and Lookin at Lee if he gets a gate). I'm not fighting those stats. The chalk pair will be on top all my wagers and I will sprinkle in some Hence. I'm guessing Classic Empire will top the checklist. I'll probably buy the TC checklist this year. The Derby winner usually one of the top two on the sheet.

Where is Gunny on your list right now? Like you, I don't plan to try and buck the odds. To me, four stand out based on the buckpasser, RAN, final 3/8 angles. That's CE, AD, Hence, and Gunny. The next tier for me is Patch, IWC, and State of Honor.

f2tornado
04-23-2017, 08:33 PM
Where is Gunny on your list right now?

I have him 4th on my very tentative list behind Dreaming, Empire, and Hence. I suspect the pace will be moderately hot and hold up too well for him to get up front. This is a rare year I like several horses on top so I'm dumping this deep closer from the win. He remains a logical exotics play. But if one plays him underneath then should also consider in tandem with Lookin at Lee who might just be the better closer and certainly at longer odds.

dballard125
04-23-2017, 09:37 PM
I have him 4th on my very tentative list behind Dreaming, Empire, and Hence. I suspect the pace will be moderately hot and hold up too well for him to get up front. This is a rare year I like several horses on top so I'm dumping this deep closer from the win. He remains a logical exotics play. But if one plays him underneath then should also consider in tandem with Lookin at Lee who might just be the better closer and certainly at longer odds.

Looking At Lee is becoming more intriguing to me as well. He got the most drunken clown show ride of all-time in the Arkansas and still finished a good 3rd. RAN sire line and fast final times. I'll be including him in my exotic plays.

Secondbest
04-24-2017, 10:09 AM
Unless I read wrong Isn't Classic Empire the only qualifier with both Buck X and RAN bloodline.

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2017, 11:12 AM
Unless I read wrong Isn't Classic Empire the only qualifier with both Buck X and RAN bloodline.

Hence has both as well

PowerUpPaynter
04-24-2017, 11:17 AM
I always feel that this week thru the post draw is where I completely over think everything.

f2tornado
04-24-2017, 02:36 PM
I always feel that this week thru the post draw is where I completely over think everything.

I used to overthink the post draw for top of the ticket. I passed on I'll Have Another from the 19 hole. Now I just cap the race and make the wagers, post be damned.

Secondbest
04-24-2017, 06:33 PM
Hence has both as well

I meant only those from Stans list

PowerUpPaynter
04-29-2017, 05:07 PM
updated

https://twitter.com/pinfante97/status/858412093434990592