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04-15-2017, 10:16 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Final Fractions
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04-15-2017, 11:03 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 94
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Thanks for info and the work put into it. I think Gunnevera deserves some extra consideration for the derby. Even though he lost to always dreaming, his final times were outstanding, considering up until that race, posts 9 through 12 at Gulfstream had a winning total of 3 out of 122 starts. I believe he was post 11 or 12. Add in the fact that he didn't need the race, and he is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. No long shot by any means, but you should get decent value.
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04-15-2017, 11:09 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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The Buckpasser and RAN columns, are x's there supposed to be good or bad? Personally, I'm not a fan of RAN, and I am not aware of a substantial Buckpasser link?
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04-15-2017, 11:13 PM
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#4
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Thanks for this and the work you did to create it.
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04-15-2017, 11:25 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 94
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Buckpasser in the X passing position is a great angle when it comes to winning the derby. So yes, it is a good thing. I would like to give credit to Stan Caris as it is his research that has come up with this. It has a very positive derby winning impact value coupled with his fast final fractions.
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04-15-2017, 11:33 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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04-16-2017, 12:27 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
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Thanks PuPaynter.
I printed them out and will pass them to my capper buddy as a guide or tool. I hope they're accurate.
I now have 8 KD horses -
Thanks a lot and cheers.
Edit: If Future Wager favorite McCraken doesn't make it I'll have 7.
Last edited by Fred Mertz; 04-16-2017 at 12:34 AM.
Reason: Additional Brain Storm
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04-16-2017, 01:36 AM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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All hail to the Power.
Thank you.
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04-16-2017, 08:40 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 506
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Thunder snow last 1/8 = 12 4/5 (last 200 meters x 1.055)
http://bit.ly/2n3iuiQ
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04-16-2017, 10:15 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
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Correct me if I am misreading the chart in your post, but it is stating that Gunnevera ran the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby in 12-1/5 seconds and Always Dreaming in the same race had a last 1/8M in 12-2/5 seconds.
I disagree on both metrics and furthermore when the work metric is considered for the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby Always Dreaming was less fatigue than Gunnevera.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
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04-16-2017, 10:38 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
Correct me if I am misreading the chart in your post, but it is stating that Gunnevera ran the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby in 12-1/5 seconds and Always Dreaming in the same race had a last 1/8M in 12-2/5 seconds.
I disagree on both metrics and furthermore when the work metric is considered for the last 1/8M of the Florida Derby Always Dreaming was less fatigue than Gunnevera.
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In 100ths of a second Gunnevera 12.23 Always Dreaming 12.53, so it is correct when rounded into 5ths of a second.
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04-16-2017, 10:41 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Always Dreaming is very vulnerable. Won the Florida Derby when all the speed held. His only other 2 routes where low beyers and soft paces he was able to sit on. I think he might be fools gold. Not much of a fan.
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04-16-2017, 11:25 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 94
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Are you able to calculate the last 3/8 for Sonneteer. I watched the race again and he looked as if he were coming home fastest of all. I read somewhere that he ran it in 36/2?? Could that be accurate? Thanks again for taking the time to provide the info. Much appreciated.
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04-16-2017, 12:48 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Julz
Are you able to calculate the last 3/8 for Sonneteer. I watched the race again and he looked as if he were coming home fastest of all. I read somewhere that he ran it in 36/2?? Could that be accurate? Thanks again for taking the time to provide the info. Much appreciated.
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in 100ths of a second = 35.97
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04-16-2017, 02:07 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Thanks PuP
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