Andy Serling Win ROI-AQU Inner Track Meet

[EMD4ME]

Andy Serling 2016, AQU inner track meet, ROI based on TOP selection only.

Picks today:

Race 1 6
Race 2 1
Race 3 6
Race 4 4
Race 5 3
Race 6 2
Race 7 2
Race 8 2

Today 0/8. Minus $16

If anyone has his picks for Wed-Sat, please post the page/link.

If anyone can help track his winners throughout the meet, please do so. I'd appreciate the help!

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Oh boy

[EMD4ME]

Oh boy

What are you talking about???

I, simply want to track his top win selections for a meet.

Nothing more, nothing less.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

These things tend to go down a different path than originally intended :D

[EMD4ME]

These things tend to go down a different path than originally intended :D

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=116626&highlight=Andy

You mean like that thread?

Plus....


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133277&highlight=Andy

Plus, we never got the actual stats from this meet, I want to make sure it doesn't happen again. People accused him of using any one of his top 4 or 5 picks in his ROI.

We should eliminate that ambiguity.

[rsetup]

He's not going to GP this year?

[EMD4ME]

He's not going to GP this year?

He did post about that. I think he said no. I was happy about that. Andy does a ton of homework that I respect.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Andy Serling 2016, AQU inner track meet, ROI based on TOP selection only.

Picks today:

Race 1 6
Race 2 1
Race 3 6
Race 4 4
Race 5 3
Race 6 2
Race 7 2
Race 8 2

Today 0/8. Minus $16

If anyone has his picks for Wed-Sat, please post the page/link.

If anyone can help track his winners throughout the meet, please do so. I'd appreciate the help!
Did they stop posting them on NYRA.com?

I didn't do much better on my blog. 2 winners on top in 8 races, total return $10.30

I remember last year seeing races that looked like turf races from the PPs. There was one today. I think the inner is idiosyncratic, and I find it can sometimes have inexplicable winners. I usually wait for the form to settle a bit before firing away.

[EMD4ME]

Did they stop posting them on NYRA.com?

I didn't do much better on my blog. 2 winners on top in 8 races, total return $10.30

I remember last year seeing races that looked like turf races from the PPs. There was one today. I think the inner is idiosyncratic, and I find it can sometimes have inexplicable winners. I usually wait for the form to settle a bit before firing away.

I've never seen a running ROI, based on top picks or otherwise on NYRA.com.

Figured I'd help start the tracking of it.

I always wondered how much his ROI was at the SPA this summer but he/they never posted his ROI.

Then we had attackers come in and post how he used his top 4/5 picks in determining a winner.

Ambiguity needs to go away.

[Ocala Mike]

All I know is that tlg and Travis Stone's picks enabled me and my bud in Staten Island to hit for $3139 on a $64 P/6 investment Friday ($2934 + 5 P'5's). My bud said we got a shoutout on the NYRA Channel about it yesterday.


I use the Talking Horses picks plus my own picks most every day I'm betting NYRA.

[AltonKelsey]

We have someone here who counts even money shots as paying 2-1, but I'd be surprised if Andy was counting his 4th place selection as a winner. Shocked really.

[EMD4ME]

All I know is that tlg and Travis Stone's picks enabled me and my bud in Staten Island to hit for $3139 on a $64 P/6 investment Friday ($2934 + 5 P'5's). My bud said we got a shoutout on the NYRA Channel about it yesterday.


I use the Talking Horses picks plus my own picks most every day I'm betting NYRA.

That's awesome! :ThmbUp:

That's what I want to hear!

[EMD4ME]

We have someone here who counts even money shots as paying 2-1, but I'd be surprised if Andy was counting his 4th place selection as a winner. Shocked really.

Who counts 1/1 shots as 2/1 shots here?????

TLG-I would be shocked as well.

[Robert Fischer]

I certainly can't speak for Andy(don't believe we've ever even discussed anything online), but it was my impression that he sequenced his selections in order to illuminate the race, rather than to perform towards an ROI

eg you may see something like
:10::4::2::3:

and ':10:' is an interesting horse who has run races just about as good as the :4: and/or :2:, but the :10: is 12-1.
(and he 'hates' the :7:, - where the :7: could actually contend but is a terrible value at a likely 5/2).

or maybe I'm dead wrong, and he's shooting for ROI. (can only make observations)
Either way, i'm sure that in addition to illuminate a race, they do fairly well over time, especially vs. whatever a pick-every-race ROI is supposed to look like.

as far as I can tell, he's the best at what he does.

[EMD4ME]

I certainly can't speak for Andy(don't believe we've ever even discussed anything online), but it was my impression that he sequenced his selections in order to illuminate the race, rather than to perform towards an ROI

eg you may see something like
:10::4::2::3:

and ':10:' is an interesting horse who has run races just about as good as the :4: and/or :2:, but the :10: is 12-1.
(and he 'hates' the :7:, - where the :7: could actually contend but is a terrible value at a likely 5/2).

or maybe I'm dead wrong, and he's shooting for ROI. (can only make observations)
Either way, i'm sure that in addition to illuminate a race, they do fairly well over time, especially vs. whatever a pick-every-race ROI is supposed to look like.

as far as I can tell, he's the best at what he does.

Andy does a great job, avoiding underlays. 100% right!

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I've never seen a running ROI, based on top picks or otherwise on NYRA.com.

Figured I'd help start the tracking of it.

I always wondered how much his ROI was at the SPA this summer but he/they never posted his ROI.

Then we had attackers come in and post how he used his top 4/5 picks in determining a winner.

Ambiguity needs to go away.
I thought somebody said Andy's top picks at SAR had a positive ROI? Can't remember where I saw that.

What I was saying was that NYRA.com had his daily picks posted and it would be easy enough to track them if you wanted to do the work.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I certainly can't speak for Andy(don't believe we've ever even discussed anything online), but it was my impression that he sequenced his selections in order to illuminate the race, rather than to perform towards an ROI

eg you may see something like
:10::4::2::3:

and ':10:' is an interesting horse who has run races just about as good as the :4: and/or :2:, but the :10: is 12-1.
(and he 'hates' the :7:, - where the :7: could actually contend but is a terrible value at a likely 5/2).

or maybe I'm dead wrong, and he's shooting for ROI. (can only make observations)
Either way, i'm sure that in addition to illuminate a race, they do fairly well over time, especially vs. whatever a pick-every-race ROI is supposed to look like.

as far as I can tell, he's the best at what he does.
I agree. He does exactly what a public handicapper is supposed to do.

When looking at public selections, one of the difficulties is placing value on the selections. Obviously not every horse on top has the same probability of winning. There are races where you believe your top pick has a 50% chance of winning, and races where any of the first three choices has an equal probability. Even if you are going to use a public selector, my advice is to assign probabilities to the top three, and look for the overlays.

In talking with other public handicappers, I asked what they consider success. The general consensus seemed to be 25% winners on top is pretty good, 30% is excellent, and a positive ROI is icing on the cake.

[pandy]

Andy is very good. But a public handicapper can be valuable to different types of players, in different ways. I've been doing this for a long time and I've had this type of correspondence many times over the years:

horseplayer: Pandy, great day yesterday, thanks!

I'm thinking to myself, great day? I lost $100. I go back over my picks and see that both of my Best Bets lost and I had three winners on top that were all favorites. I email the guy back. What did you hit?

horseplayer: I look over your picks and play the overlays. In the 2nd your third choice won and paid $30 and your second choice ran second. I keyed it on top of your other three picks and hit the trifecta for $800, and I hit the exacta for $110. The in the 8th, your second choice won and paid $19 and your third pick came in second, I hit the exacta for $88. Great day.


You get the idea. I've had people tell me they hit a big Pick 4 and I played the Pick 4 and lost, but I only used the top two, where as they used the top three.

I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat, but my point is, a good horse player, who knows how to bet, will do better with Andy's picks, or any good handicapper's picks, than someone who isn't a good horseplayer, and, he may even do better than the guy who made the picks.

[EasyGoer89]

Andy is very good. But a public handicapper can be valuable to different types of players, in different ways. I've been doing this for a long time and I've had this type of correspondence many times over the years:

horseplayer: Pandy, great day yesterday, thanks!

I'm thinking to myself, great day? I lost $100. I go back over my picks and see that both of my Best Bets lost and I had three winners on top that were all favorites. I email the guy back. What did you hit?

horseplayer: I look over your picks and play the overlays. In the 2nd your third choice won and paid $30 and your second choice ran second. I keyed it on top of your other three picks and hit the trifecta for $800, and I hit the exacta for $110. The in the 8th, your second choice won and paid $19 and your third pick came in second, I hit the exacta for $88. Great day.


You get the idea. I've had people tell me they hit a big Pick 4 and I played the Pick 4 and lost, but I only used the top two, where as they used the top three.

I guess there's more than one way to skin a cat, but my point is, a good horse player, who knows how to bet, will do better with Andy's picks, or any good handicapper's picks, than someone who isn't a good horseplayer, and, he may even do better than the guy who made the picks.

The other day, Andy made a point about a horse i had planned on singling in my pick 5, as soon as he said it i knew he was right and immediately altered my wager which saved me money. I can't even tell you who he picked in the race, but his information was as good as a winning pick as far as i was concerned. I already have my own handicapping done, so if i listen to anyone comment on the races im about to play, i just use their comments as a supplement vs an end all/be all. To me, this piece of information was essentially adding to some mythical ROI, comments aren't tracked by ROI but they can be just as valuable, they can be turned into cold, hard cash even there's really no way to track them and place an actual ROI number onto them.

[EasyGoer89]

I followed Andy at Saratoga, Here is what i found:
1) 4 days he had no picks
2) No jumper picks
3) 1 card cancelled after 5 races
4) Using his top pick only after scratches

356 races 98 winners
Bet $712 Collected $729.80

Mailman

The collected portion of your stats would probably be closer to 800 if you took all the money off these horses that went on them due to andy making the selection public in the first place. The 729.80 essentially overcame the 'andy tax' that players pay if they want to bet on one of his picks, extra impressive to overcome that 'tax' and still show a profit.

[Mailman]

Here is what i found:
1) 4 days no picks
2) No jumper picks
3) 1 card cancelled after 5 races
4) Using his top pick only after scratches

356 Races 98 Winners
Bet $712 Collected $729.80



Mailman

[Ocala Mike]

I agree with most of the above posts. I, too, saw where tlg posted a flat bet profit for the entire Saratoga meeting, and I believe his and his partner's picks on Talking Horses do sway the odds significantly in every pool.

[Mailman]

Easy Goer 89 Good Point!

[EMD4ME]

The collected portion of your stats would probably be closer to 800 if you took all the money off these horses that went on them due to andy making the selection public in the first place. The 729.80 essentially overcame the 'andy tax' that players pay if they want to bet on one of his picks, extra impressive to overcome that 'tax' and still show a profit.

I absolutely agree. We've shared many opinions on horses and I get ticked off as there is a following & a reduced price because of his support of a horse.

[EMD4ME]

The other day, Andy made a point about a horse i had planned on singling in my pick 5, as soon as he said it i knew he was right and immediately altered my wager which saved me money. I can't even tell you who he picked in the race, but his information was as good as a winning pick as far as i was concerned. I already have my own handicapping done, so if i listen to anyone comment on the races im about to play, i just use their comments as a supplement vs an end all/be all. To me, this piece of information was essentially adding to some mythical ROI, comments aren't tracked by ROI but they can be just as valuable, they can be turned into cold, hard cash even there's really no way to track them and place an actual ROI number onto them.

An even better point! If anyone plays NYRA for real, it is imperative that they listen to talking horses and his per race prattle. His information or how he speaks of a horse is more vital than his pick.

[EMD4ME]

Here is what i found:
1) 4 days no picks
2) No jumper picks
3) 1 card cancelled after 5 races
4) Using his top pick only after scratches

356 Races 98 Winners
Bet $712 Collected $729.80






Mailman

Great stuff mailman! Maybe you can help track?

By any chance do you have wed thru sat picks?

[pandy]

The other day, Andy made a point about a horse i had planned on singling in my pick 5, as soon as he said it i knew he was right and immediately altered my wager which saved me money. I can't even tell you who he picked in the race, but his information was as good as a winning pick as far as i was concerned. I already have my own handicapping done, so if i listen to anyone comment on the races im about to play, i just use their comments as a supplement vs an end all/be all. To me, this piece of information was essentially adding to some mythical ROI, comments aren't tracked by ROI but they can be just as valuable, they can be turned into cold, hard cash even there's really no way to track them and place an actual ROI number onto them.

Exactly.

[PaceAdvantage]

What are you talking about???

I, simply want to track his top win selections for a meet.

Nothing more, nothing less. :lol:

Really dude?

[EMD4ME]

:lol:

Really dude?

At least I make you laugh :lol:

(And create high volume threads for you ;) )

[classhandicapper]

I don't see the upside of threads like these. Without late scratches that might impact the way a race is run, bias insights developed while seeing the first few races run, and late odds, there's almost no chance of showing a profit long term selecting every single race. So what's the point? Maybe it would make more sense to watch the show and chart any time he says he's actually making a play. Personally though, I don't think that's the value of the show either. No one catches everything. The value of the show is in the insights he brings to the table that other handicappers may have missed or the times he is pushing something that may impact the odds, but you disagree with him.

[pandy]

I don't see the upside of threads like these. Without late scratches that might impact the way a race is run, bias insights developed while seeing the first few races run, and late odds, there's almost no chance of showing a profit long term selecting every single race. So what's the point? Maybe it would make more sense to watch the show and chart any time he says he's actually making a play. Personally though, I don't think that's the value of the show either. No one catches everything. The value of the show is in the insights he brings to the table that other handicappers may have missed or the times he is pushing something that may impact the odds, but you disagree with him.


Agree, this is a poor excuse for a thread. Whether Andy has a positive ROI for the inner track meet or not this year, whatever, doesn't mean anything. He's already a proven commodity in his field of expertise.

[cj]

Cherry picking an 0-8 day to start smells a little funny.

[thaskalos]

If the ROI of the other public handicappers were readily available and we could compare TLG to someone else...then I could perhaps understand the point of this thread. But as it stands right now...I honestly can't see what the expectation is here. Is TLG expected to show a positive ROI while making a selection in every race?

Would EMD4ME have started this thread if TLG had gone 5 out of 8 in that initial race-day?

[PaceAdvantage]

Would EMD4ME have started this thread if TLG had gone 5 out of 8 in that initial race-day?Of course he wouldn't have.

And he wouldn't have started this thread if TLG hadn't made one of EMD's patented "fixed races," a trip & trap on the show...

EMD seems a little too petty at this point. He must be one helluva handicapper to succeed with all this ego baggage hanging over his head.

[thaskalos]

Of course he wouldn't have.

And he wouldn't have started this thread if TLG hadn't made one of EMD's patented "fixed races," a trip & trap on the show...

EMD seems a little too petty at this point. He must be one helluva handicapper to succeed with all this ego baggage hanging over his head.

He does get too emotional at times. Makes one wonder how he handles a prolonged losing streak. :)

[EMD4ME]

He is the most polarizing person on here. I honestly miss the other Andy thread and he is the person to follow in terms of public handicappers. I totally agree. His insights into a bias or a trip note or dynamics are way more valuable than a selection.

After his excellent accomplishment at the SPA this summer , a place where a great capper can lose their shirt, I thought it would be a good idea to track the inner meet stats as well. I wouldve started it wed but got caught up in other endeavors.

[EMD4ME]

Cherry picking an 0-8 day to start smells a little funny.

I can see that. That's why I asked if anyone had wed-sat picks as well.

Forgive me. I was a little late but not done intentionally.

[PaceAdvantage]

You like to tell us how busy your life is...from your real job to your mom...how most of your free time is spent watching races, taking notes, handicapping, etc. etc.

But now all of a sudden, you have time to track Andy's picks...ok then. :lol:

[EMD4ME]

If the ROI of the other public handicappers were readily available and we could compare TLG to someone else...then I could perhaps understand the point of this thread. But as it stands right now...I honestly can't see what the expectation is here. Is TLG expected to show a positive ROI while making a selection in every race?

Would EMD4ME have started this thread if TLG had gone 5 out of 8 in that initial race-day?

1)Yes. I would have.

2) so its OK to discuss Saratoga roi but not aqu inner roi?

Help me understand that please

[EMD4ME]

You like to tell us how busy your life is...from your real job to your mom...how most of your free time is spent watching races, taking notes, handicapping, etc. etc.

But now all of a sudden, you have time to track Andy's picks...ok then. :lol:

I asked for volunteers as I know he is loved. Figured Id have no problem securing a volunteer or two.

Even more important, I was hoping someone would also point out why he liked certain winners.


Oh shoot me. How dare I try and start a thread based upon discussion of horse races :bang:

[EMD4ME]

He does get too emotional at times. Makes one wonder how he handles a prolonged losing streak. :)

Easy. I make sure I study harder and harder. Especially if the streak passes 2 days.

I think all of you are too emotional . In order to be involved in this game. You need ice water in your veins.

[EMD4ME]

Of course he wouldn't have.

And he wouldn't have started this thread if TLG hadn't made one of EMD's patented "fixed races," a trip & trap on the show...

EMD seems a little too petty at this point. He must be one helluva handicapper to succeed with all this ego baggage hanging over his head.

Actually I've thought of this thread since his excellent spa roi/meet.

I think its great that positives get glorified. Its good for the game..

Now, can all of you kindly stop the BS and let the thread serve its purpose please?

ROI tracking and discussions of horses running at NYRA throughout the winter meet please.

[EMD4ME]

Agree, this is a poor excuse for a thread. Whether Andy has a positive ROI for the inner track meet or not this year, whatever, doesn't mean anything. He's already a proven commodity in his field of expertise.

You're 100% right. He doesn't need to prove a damn thing. He is the best on air capper in the industry.

This is about AQU inner track capping. I dont see the problem.

[PaceAdvantage]

I asked for volunteers as I know he is loved. Figured Id have no problem securing a volunteer or two.

Even more important, I was hoping someone would also point out why he liked certain winners.


Oh shoot me. How dare I try and start a thread based upon discussion of horse races :bang:Your whole premise is flawed. If anyone cared enough to start tracking his plays, it would have been done already...it's not like the board has only been around a year or two... :lol:

The only people who have EVER posted about tracking Andy's plays over the 17+ years this website has existed, haven't been people who love Andy. Quite the opposite. And even those people never went through with it...even they didn't hate him/care that much... :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

ROI is such a small slice of Serling's job.

He could have a $1.50 ROI, or a $0.50 ROI, and it wouldn't have any noticeable impact on the quality of his show.

[FakeNameChanged]

Your whole premise is flawed. If anyone cared enough to start tracking his plays, it would have been done already...it's not like the board has only been around a year or two... :lol:

The only people who have EVER posted about tracking Andy's plays over the 17+ years this website has existed, haven't been people who love Andy. Quite the opposite. And even those people never went through with it...even they didn't hate him/care that much... :lol:
Actually I started one for his BC races. I actually watched it and took a lot of notes.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134445

[aaron]

An even better point! If anyone plays NYRA for real, it is imperative that they listen to talking horses and his per race prattle. His information or how he speaks of a horse is more vital than his pick.
That is the best point about Andy's analysis. He is always trying to give the player an edge. If there were no picks and you just listened to the talk you would learn more. The key is the information. Also,the player knows the odds before they bet. Andy doesn't. He does a lot of work and his subtle information can be worth more than, the actual picks. Tracking his roi is ok, but how many players are betting a horse to win every race on the card.
Handicapper Steve Matthews of Newsday has showed a positive ROI on certain meets at NYRA. I would guess Andy has had meets where he has showed a + roi.
The big question does a Public Handicapper showing a positive ROI actually help you win ?

[cj]

Actually I started one for his BC races. I actually watched it and took a lot of notes.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134445


Two days isn't a meet.

PA is right, it has been tried before and always fizzles out.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's basically mental masturbation for those with an ax to grind.

I think it's been pretty clearly established through the many years Andy has been around the game, that he is in a class by himself when it comes to on-air horse racing personalities/analysts. Even his many detractors would readily acknowledge this fact.

[aaron]

For those old enough to remember, the original "Talking Horses" with Harvey Pack never gave out picks. The race was discussed and you had to process the information. On certain days, guests did give out picks, but I don't recall Harvey giving out picks.

[pandy]

ROI is such a small slice of Serling's job.

He could have a $1.50 ROI, or a $0.50 ROI, and it wouldn't have any noticeable impact on the quality of his show.


True, because no one in their right mind is going to bet every race anyway.

The strength of the analysis is the information it may provide. When I was doing the on air cable show for Yonkers, harness racing, one night a horse shipped in from the Meadowlands and was 3/5. But I had seen the horse race at the Meadowlands and it had a poor gait, which meant that it may not be able to handle the half mile track, which has tighter turns. Plus the horse didn't have a good half mile track pedigree, all of which I reported to the on track and tv audience. I said, this horse may break stride. The horse broke and finished last, and I gave out the winner as my second pick, can't remember what it paid but it was a good payoff. After the race two different people who won money on the race came up to me and thanked me. I didn't actually pick the winner. I think the horse that won was my second choice, but my analysis was spot on, and that's what you want out of an on air handicapper, or any professional handicapper.

[EMD4ME]

Your whole premise is flawed. If anyone cared enough to start tracking his plays, it would have been done already...it's not like the board has only been around a year or two... :lol:

The only people who have EVER posted about tracking Andy's plays over the 17+ years this website has existed, haven't been people who love Andy. Quite the opposite. And even those people never went through with it...even they didn't hate him/care that much... :lol:

So boss I'll ask you this question.

Its OK to come on here and state that Andy has a positive ROI for the spa meet but its not OK to track his picks?

You can't have it both ways..

More. importantly, I'm creating a thread that can only help NYRA handle and you (and others) are screaming blasphemy from the announcers booth. How insane is that??? :bang:

I enjoy back and forth banter about races I wager on. My vision is posting his picks in advance and we discuss the days contenders in 1 thread for a meet with his picks being the epicenter of the discussion.

How is that a sin?

I'm all ears.

[thaskalos]

2) so its OK to discuss Saratoga roi but not aqu inner roi?

Help me understand that please

OK...I'll do my best. And, since I consider you a friend of mine...I hope you won't take my remarks too personally.

Your timing with this thread is all wrong...because it comes on the heels of a recent rift between you and TLG on this board. You are trying to present this as a serious and unbiased inquiry into TLG's Aqueduct performance...but anyone who has been reading this board over the last several days is bound to question your motives here.

Now...I get paid to be observant, just as you are...and I'd like you to have the benefit of some of my observations here:

While TLG likes to adopt a confrontational posting style with some of us here...you are not one of the posters that he likes to target. In fact...he has repeatedly told us here what a "great guy" you are...and you yourself have acknowledged this in the past. The current argument between the two of you, which you have referred to as a "TLG attack", is, IMO, mainly driven NOT by TLG's comments towards you...but by YOUR comments toward him -- which have been of a much more "personal" nature. You have even gone as far as to blame TLG's "treatment" of you here as the main reason why you have drastically reduced your NYRA betting handle...which is an obvious exaggeration on your part. While your replies to him have been of a vitriolic nature...TLG has retained his composure when answering you...which proves that he has more respect for you than you give him credit for. Take my word for it...TLG can get a lot more "vitriolic" than he has shown in his interactions with you here.

Before you accuse me of being one of the many TLG "fans" here...please note that I have gotten into more than my share of arguments with TLG here...and I don't particularly care if he considers me a "great guy" or not. I try to call things just as I see them.

I am in complete aggreement with TLG when it comes to you being a "great guy"...but you seem to be after "widespread approval" here...and that isn't likely to happen. The more opinionated you get here, the more people will argue with your opinions...and you will have to get USED to that. That's what makes for interesting online discussions. And, when you start off by telling people here that you are the "purest soul that they are ever likely to meet"...and then you follow this up with wild emotional outbursts where you tell people that "you have nothing to learn from anyone here", while you yourself are "wasting your time on this board"...people are bound to become confused by your behavior -- because it looks too contradictory. The "purest souls" don't usually get bothered by trivial online arguments.

We are just gathering here to amuse ourselves, EMD...and we know that nothing major can result from our conversations here. The give-and-take that sometimes arises between us adds to the fun...and it should be taken in stride. You are taking our interactions here a bit too seriously, IMO...and you are allowing the occasional disagreements between us to dampen your mood. RELAX...and stop taking yourself so seriously.

Thus endeth the lesson. :cool:

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos
He does get too emotional at times. Makes one wonder how he handles a prolonged losing streak. :)
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Easy. I make sure I study harder and harder. Especially if the streak passes 2 days
You made me spit out my coffee this morning.....Thanks for the laugh...:lol:

[Nitro]

Nice post Thaskalos!
But I think your comments are a bit too generous when comes to EMD’s attitude and general behavior on this forum. I’m not going to add anything about that because it serves no purpose.

I will only say that if TLG felt it was necessary to prove anything he would have started a thread like this himself. Those who follow his televised commentary already know his capabilities. Like any other public handicapper, he’s providing what he believes to be worthwhile information – take it or leave it.

I personally congratulate TLG for his persistence and obvious demonstration for his love of the game.

[SandyW]

If you can name a public handicapper that is 50% as good as Andy Serling, please inform me who that person is.
It is the over all info that he give out that matters not what is the top horse in each race.
Nobody better then TLG for over all analyst of a race.

[green80]

If any public handicapper has a positive ROI, it won't be long before he has a negative ROI due to the following he will pick up.

[EMD4ME]

Does this mean I don't have any volunteers for tracking? :lol:

[EasyGoer89]

Does this mean I don't have any volunteers for tracking? :lol:

I think the time and effort needed to track him is wasted time unless you get fruits for the labor. At the end of the day (or meet) he's either going to show a plus ROI or a minus ROI but either way, it doesn't mean a heck of a lot because it won't really show which selections of his were grade A picks and which ones were picks he was reluctant to make.

I'll tell you the way you can take advantage of this is if you handicapped the handicapper. Is he better at a certain type of race? Hypothetically, Maybe a subset of his picks might show that he's especially good with cheap filly and mare claimers going two turns on the turf in fields between 7 and 9 horses deep. There are tons of subsets and subsets of subsets, just an overall ROI won't glean much at all, its not going to really help you win unless you had much deeper data.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think the time and effort needed to track him is wasted time unless you get fruits for the labor. At the end of the day (or meet) he's either going to show a plus ROI or a minus ROI but either way, it doesn't mean a heck of a lot because it won't really show which selections of his were grade A picks and which ones were picks he was reluctant to make.

I'll tell you the way you can take advantage of this is if you handicapped the handicapper. Is he better at a certain type of race? Hypothetically, Maybe a subset of his picks might show that he's especially good with cheap filly and mare claimers going two turns on the turf in fields between 7 and 9 horses deep. There are tons of subsets and subsets of subsets, just an overall ROI won't glean much at all, its not going to really help you win unless you had much deeper data.If the point of this thread was to help people, you wouldn't be wasting your time with the above...however...

[HuggingTheRail]

It's basically mental masturbation for those with an ax to grind.

I think it's been pretty clearly established through the many years Andy has been around the game, that he is in a class by himself when it comes to on-air horse racing personalities/analysts. Even his many detractors would readily acknowledge this fact.


Very true, at least for me - he is one of only a handful of commentators I listen to. His on air analysis is "must listen to" commentary. His (at times) pompous and pious attitude on this forum has me alternating between having him blocked/unblokced a few times per year.

[Light]

Andy Serling 2016, AQU inner track meet, ROI based on TOP selection only.

Picks today:

Race 1 6
Race 2 1
Race 3 6
Race 4 4
Race 5 3
Race 6 2
Race 7 2
Race 8 2

Today 0/8. Minus $16

If anyone has his picks for Wed-Sat, please post the page/link.

If anyone can help track his winners throughout the meet, please do so. I'd appreciate the help!

I went through this with this whole board in 2009. All I got was hate. So I do not give my opinions now regarding TLG and many other things.

I am the only person I know that ever tracked TLG's picks in details AFTER scratches. Here was his results from the Saratoga 2009 meet:


Betting top pick to win

364 races

-7.4% ROI

Invest $728 Return $674

Betting top 2 picks to win

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-16% ROI

Invest $1409 return $1190

Betting top 3 picks in a $1 exacta box

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-12% ROI

Invest $2036 Return $1786

Data is after scratches. If one of his 4 picks was scratched the others moved up. It worked as much to his advantage as to his disadvantage. I would say scratches helped more than hurt his ROI in all 3 categories.Additionaly,if only 2 of his picks were left after scratches,I only charged him $2 for the exacta box. If only 1 pick was left after scratches,he didn't get charged for an exacta nor for having a 2nd pick.

Go to my post #48 (in the link below) if you want to see the actual Excel sheet with the data. I actually made other studies of him back around that time and they were about the same.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61519&page=4&pp=15

Disclaimer Please do not tell me how I hate TLG. I do not. I could kiss him (No I'm not gay). I'm an open person. My original intention was to see if he actually was a golden goose. He's not. At this point I have made up my mind on his abilities and that's all that matters to me. I am not interested in convincing anyone either way of his abilities or lack of them.I am just trying to save the OP a headache and answer his desire for data on the subject.

[riskman]

If the point of this thread was to help people, you wouldn't be wasting your time with the above...however...

Thaskalos defined in his post#53 what is going on here. You know that.
EMD,Thaskalos and Andy S are all good capapers in their unique approach to the game.
Ego is a big part of this game.It is.sometimes fragile as is demonstrated here on many occasions.
In the interim, this too will pass, if only for a few hours.

[cj]

I went through this with this whole board in 2009. All I got was hate. So I do not give my opinions now regarding TLG and many other things.

I am the only person I know that ever tracked TLG's picks in details AFTER scratches. Here was his results from the Saratoga 2009 meet:



Go to my post #48 (in the link below) if you want to see the actual Excel sheet with the data. I actually made other studies of him back around that time and they were about the same.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61519&page=4&pp=15

Disclaimer Please do not tell me how I hate TLG. I do not. I could kiss him (No I'm not gay). I'm an open person. My original intention was to see if he actually was a golden goose. He's not. At this point I have made up my mind on his abilities and that's all that matters to me. I am not interested in convincing anyone either way of his abilities or lack of them.I am just trying to save the OP a headache and answer his desire for data on the subject.

Losing 7% for an entire meet betting every race is actually a great performance.

[upthecreek]

If you can name a public handicapper that is 50% as good as Andy Serling, please inform me who that person is.
It is the over all info that he give out that matters not what is the top horse in each race.
Nobody better then TLG for over all analyst of a race.
Brooklyn Cowboy, Kevin Cox
David Aragona

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Nick Tammaro had a number of +ROI meets at the NYRA tracks when he was the public handicapper for the ADW platforms. As I recall, he also finished 4th in the 2014 BC Betting Challenge.

Jerry Bossert had a lot of respect before the Daily News fired him. I think you could come up with a number of good handicappers offering public selections on the NYRA circuit.

Andy has a lot of things going for him, not the least of which is that he is really good on camera, especially given the relatively short amount of time he has to get his points across. He packs a lot into five minutes. I would also say he does the most important thing a public handicapper can do - his homework. His information has depth and is reliable.

I tracked daily selections off my blog for Saratoga in 2015. http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=2243

[EMD4ME]

I went through this with this whole board in 2009. All I got was hate. So I do not give my opinions now regarding TLG and many other things.

I am the only person I know that ever tracked TLG's picks in details AFTER scratches. Here was his results from the Saratoga 2009 meet:



Go to my post #48 (in the link below) if you want to see the actual Excel sheet with the data. I actually made other studies of him back around that time and they were about the same.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=61519&page=4&pp=15

Disclaimer Please do not tell me how I hate TLG. I do not. I could kiss him (No I'm not gay). I'm an open person. My original intention was to see if he actually was a golden goose. He's not. At this point I have made up my mind on his abilities and that's all that matters to me. I am not interested in convincing anyone either way of his abilities or lack of them.I am just trying to save the OP a headache and answer his desire for data on the subject.

Thank you for posting but this is exactly what I don't want in this thread. I saw zero discussions of benefit from TLG's picks. I saw zero discussion of races. Zero but hatred.

Yes, TLG has left my mouth sour lately as I don't approve of his behavior but I am not here, creating this thread to destroy him/fight with this crowd etc.

I lost a ton on the AQU inner track meet last year, that's one reason I want to keep myself sharp for this year.

I already reduced my handle on the inner track for various reasons (1 of which was last year's riding styles).

I want and yearn to push myself to discuss races that are upcoming before the race (and sometimes after the race, to review what we/I may have misjudged).

I heard about TLG's positive ROI for the SPA meet and wanted to create a TLG ROI thread since then. I missed the opportunity at Belmont. I missed the opportunity at the recent AQU main track meet. I didn't want to wait another 3 1/2 months.

Yeah, my timing absolutely sucks. It does. I fully admit that. However, I am an adult and keep things in perspective.

TLG has chosen to be a public handicapper. He has chosen to come on here and go back and forth with a solid and loyal client of NYRA.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with me tracking his picks.

If you guys don't like it, too bad. I see nothing wrong with someone tracking a public figure's picks.

I'd appreciate it if the ones who came on here to provide some heat towards me, took that elsewhere. If you don't, I still won't care but I would appreciate it.

After all, many have come on here and screamed TLG has a positive ROI. No one complained about that. So, what's wrong with someone tracking his top selection picks?

With that said: Wednesday has an 8 race card on tap. If old man winter allows....

Who would like to pick a race and discuss it?

[EMD4ME]

OK...I'll do my best. And, since I consider you a friend of mine...I hope you won't take my remarks too personally.

Your timing with this thread is all wrong...because it comes on the heels of a recent rift between you and TLG on this board. You are trying to present this as a serious and unbiased inquiry into TLG's Aqueduct performance...but anyone who has been reading this board over the last several days is bound to question your motives here.

Now...I get paid to be observant, just as you are...and I'd like you to have the benefit of some of my observations here:

While TLG likes to adopt a confrontational posting style with some of us here...you are not one of the posters that he likes to target. In fact...he has repeatedly told us here what a "great guy" you are...and you yourself have acknowledged this in the past. The current argument between the two of you, which you have referred to as a "TLG attack", is, IMO, mainly driven NOT by TLG's comments towards you...but by YOUR comments toward him -- which have been of a much more "personal" nature. You have even gone as far as to blame TLG's "treatment" of you here as the main reason why you have drastically reduced your NYRA betting handle...which is an obvious exaggeration on your part. While your replies to him have been of a vitriolic nature...TLG has retained his composure when answering you...which proves that he has more respect for you than you give him credit for. Take my word for it...TLG can get a lot more "vitriolic" than he has shown in his interactions with you here.

Before you accuse me of being one of the many TLG "fans" here...please note that I have gotten into more than my share of arguments with TLG here...and I don't particularly care if he considers me a "great guy" or not. I try to call things just as I see them.

I am in complete aggreement with TLG when it comes to you being a "great guy"...but you seem to be after "widespread approval" here...and that isn't likely to happen. The more opinionated you get here, the more people will argue with your opinions...and you will have to get USED to that. That's what makes for interesting online discussions. And, when you start off by telling people here that you are the "purest soul that they are ever likely to meet"...and then you follow this up with wild emotional outbursts where you tell people that "you have nothing to learn from anyone here", while you yourself are "wasting your time on this board"...people are bound to become confused by your behavior -- because it looks too contradictory. The "purest souls" don't usually get bothered by trivial online arguments.

We are just gathering here to amuse ourselves, EMD...and we know that nothing major can result from our conversations here. The give-and-take that sometimes arises between us adds to the fun...and it should be taken in stride. You are taking our interactions here a bit too seriously, IMO...and you are allowing the occasional disagreements between us to dampen your mood. RELAX...and stop taking yourself so seriously.

Thus endeth the lesson. :cool:

I consider you a friend as well Thaskalos. Good post :ThmbUp:

I know what's important in life and always keep that in mind.

As I've said since I got here, I love to shoot the horse manure with people. I also put a disclaimer in 1 of my recent posts ('Gain nothing from them' .This is not meant to those I love), I think you forgot that you're 1 of the ones I respect. I was referring to the illogical haters.

Anyways, it's all good.

[EMD4ME]

You made me spit out my coffee this morning.....Thanks for the laugh...:lol:

You're welcome :lol: but I was dead serious.....

When I lose, I will sometimes cap all replays again and again (of the next card I will play) from 7 pm till 6 am, nap for 2 hours, shower get ready and cap again till 11 am and then attack.

I always shoot to have every nugget uncovered. (sire stats, dam stats, dam's kid's stats, all replays, check all timings of races, restudy pace figs, final time figs, bias notes, recent stable placings, workouts, strength of fields, double check run ups etc. etc. etc.).

My gravely ill, only (inadvertent) mentor always told all that would listen, if you want to survive, work harder than anyone. When you do that, find a way to work harder.

[thaskalos]

I consider you a friend as well Thaskalos. Good post :ThmbUp:

I know what's important in life and always keep that in mind.

As I've said since I got here, I love to shoot the horse manure with people. I also put a disclaimer in 1 of my recent posts ('Gain nothing from them' .This is not meant to those I love), I think you forgot that you're 1 of the ones I respect. I was referring to the illogical haters.

Anyways, it's all good.

You have no more "haters" here than I have...and I have NONE! No one here "hates" us...it's just that we won't be able to get everybody here to embrace everything that we say...nor should we try to.

Do you remember the movies "The Godfather", and "Shawshank Redemption"? Well...as great as those two movies were...about 5% percent of the people surveyed gave those movies ONE STAR...for a variety of reasons. If greatness such as that could find denigrating critics...then...what chance do you and I have of being accepted by EVERYONE in a forum such as this? :)

[horses4courses]

Do you remember the movies "The Godfather", and "Shawshank Redemption"? Well...as great as those two movies were...about 5% percent of the people surveyed gave those movies ONE STAR...for a variety of reasons. If greatness such as that could find denigrating critics...then...what chance do you and I have of being accepted by EVERYONE in a forum such as this? :)

That is definitive proof that at least 5% of the population,
which is being very diplomatic, have little between their ears. ;)

[EMD4ME]

That is definitive proof that at least 5% of the population,
which is being very diplomatic, have little between their ears. ;)

I wish we could bring that 5% to the track and hook them onto horseracing !

[EMD4ME]

You have no more "haters" here than I have...and I have NONE! No one here "hates" us...it's just that we won't be able to get everybody here to embrace everything that we say...nor should we try to.

Do you remember the movies "The Godfather", and "Shawshank Redemption"? Well...as great as those two movies were...about 5% percent of the people surveyed gave those movies ONE STAR...for a variety of reasons. If greatness such as that could find denigrating critics...then...what chance do you and I have of being accepted by EVERYONE in a forum such as this? :)

Good analogy. :ThmbUp:

[horses4courses]

There is more than ample evidence that TLG
is very good at his job. No question.

What is most newsworthy to me in this thread
is just how many horse players pay close attention
to the work of public handicappers. :eek:

One would think that 90% plus of posters on this site
have their own tried and trusted, kick ass, variety of
home grown speed figures that siphon pari-mutuel pools
with regularity. Computers crunching numbers, plus the
ever popular pencil and racing form methods that are legendary. :faint:

You mean to tell me that more people seek the opinions
of paid professionals than they are prone to admit?
Say it ain't so................. ;)

[horses4courses]

I wish we could bring that 5% to the track and hook them onto horseracing !

Very true.
They have an open invitation. ;)

[rsetup]

There is more than ample evidence that TLG
is very good at his job. No question.

What is most newsworthy to me in this thread
is just how many horse players pay close attention
to the work of public handicappers. :eek:

One would think that 90% plus of posters on this site
have their own tried and trusted, kick ass, variety of
home grown speed figures that siphon pari-mutuel pools
with regularity. Computers crunching numbers, plus the
ever popular pencil and racing form methods that are legendary. :faint:

You mean to tell me that more people seek the opinions
of paid professionals than they are prone to admit?
Say it ain't so................. ;)

Tycho Brahe 'talking down' the Ptolemaic Universe.

[Ocala Mike]

With that said: Wednesday has an 8 race card on tap. If old man winter allows....

Who would like to pick a race and discuss it?




In scanning the entries prior to handicapping, one horse catches my eye.

:3: NON FINISCE MAI in the 7th Gullo/Maragh 10/1

She is on my "follow" list, but I forget why. How about a discussion of this race?

[EMD4ME]

In scanning the entries prior to handicapping, one horse catches my eye.

:3: NON FINISCE MAI in the 7th Gullo/Maragh 10/1

She is on my "follow" list, but I forget why. How about a discussion of this race?

I'd love to!

That was an interesting race. I hated the fave in her last start (Hot City Girl-coming off layoff) and remember betting against her because I was hoping for a good speed skirmish in the first quarter. Well that happened. (sorry for the 6 month old redboard).

Non Finisce Mai was caught 3 wide of 3 in a stressed position for at least 1/8 of the trip. Then was caught chasing hot fractions, hung 4 wide on the far turn AS the top 2 closers ran by underneath.

She was game as well in the lane, changing leads well and having heart to come back on to almost get 4th, surviving well vs. the 2 LPB (lost pace battle horses).

A respectable run vs MUCH better.

Which begs the question, why the freshening/layoff off of a solid effort vs. better?

Gullo going well, Rajiv is definitely making up for lost time. A lot to like.

EDIT: Vet Scr at the SPA in August. Adds to the mystery.

[Polish Navy]

OK...I'll do my best. And, since I consider you a friend of mine...I hope you won't take my remarks too personally.

Your timing with this thread is all wrong...because it comes on the heels of a recent rift between you and TLG on this board. You are trying to present this as a serious and unbiased inquiry into TLG's Aqueduct performance...but anyone who has been reading this board over the last several days is bound to question your motives here.

Now...I get paid to be observant, just as you are...and I'd like you to have the benefit of some of my observations here:

While TLG likes to adopt a confrontational posting style with some of us here...you are not one of the posters that he likes to target. In fact...he has repeatedly told us here what a "great guy" you are...and you yourself have acknowledged this in the past. The current argument between the two of you, which you have referred to as a "TLG attack", is, IMO, mainly driven NOT by TLG's comments towards you...but by YOUR comments toward him -- which have been of a much more "personal" nature. You have even gone as far as to blame TLG's "treatment" of you here as the main reason why you have drastically reduced your NYRA betting handle...which is an obvious exaggeration on your part. While your replies to him have been of a vitriolic nature...TLG has retained his composure when answering you...which proves that he has more respect for you than you give him credit for. Take my word for it...TLG can get a lot more "vitriolic" than he has shown in his interactions with you here.

Before you accuse me of being one of the many TLG "fans" here...please note that I have gotten into more than my share of arguments with TLG here...and I don't particularly care if he considers me a "great guy" or not. I try to call things just as I see them.

I am in complete aggreement with TLG when it comes to you being a "great guy"...but you seem to be after "widespread approval" here...and that isn't likely to happen. The more opinionated you get here, the more people will argue with your opinions...and you will have to get USED to that. That's what makes for interesting online discussions. And, when you start off by telling people here that you are the "purest soul that they are ever likely to meet"...and then you follow this up with wild emotional outbursts where you tell people that "you have nothing to learn from anyone here", while you yourself are "wasting your time on this board"...people are bound to become confused by your behavior -- because it looks too contradictory. The "purest souls" don't usually get bothered by trivial online arguments.

We are just gathering here to amuse ourselves, EMD...and we know that nothing major can result from our conversations here. The give-and-take that sometimes arises between us adds to the fun...and it should be taken in stride. You are taking our interactions here a bit too seriously, IMO...and you are allowing the occasional disagreements between us to dampen your mood. RELAX...and stop taking yourself so seriously.

Thus endeth the lesson. :cool:

Fascinating.
Brilliant actually.
Thank you Sir.

[EMD4ME]

Fascinating.
Brilliant actually.
Thank you Sir.

I hope this time your posts aren't deleted. I like having your type around ;)

Thaskalos, this one is not a fan of the Shawshank Redemption :lol: :lol: :lol:

[EMD4ME]

Ocala Mike, please let me know, if you remember, why you liked this horse.

Any thoughts on the pace? Seems like a solid amount of speed in the race.

[johnhannibalsmith]

In scanning the entries prior to handicapping, one horse catches my eye.

:3: NON FINISCE MAI in the 7th Gullo/Maragh 10/1

She is on my "follow" list, but I forget why. How about a discussion of this race?

Definitely an interesting race at first glance. Seems like an easy race to make a case for almost everyone so could certainly find a nice play at the right price. Your filly here seems to fit that role and she's certainly interesting - she might be dangerous sustained speed (wonder if maybe she made your list for staying on pretty well in that tough spot after chasing a tough pace and even having to check out a bit when under pressure between rivals) - but doesn't exactly look like she's primed for a monster show off the shelf on paper. But who knows. I might put her on my list for next time. :D

I'm going to take a longer look at Splendid Gold and something tells me need to root extra hard for that 4-1 morning line. Only Uncle Southern has more wins (7) and I'm a full-blown sucker for horses like this that have basically one freaky good race over this inner surface under similar race conditions - and at was LAST meet at the most recent so at least it gets a little distortion in the form of recency and current form.

Yeah, this one has passed hands a few times lately and was up here when claimed two back and after a poor show on that day for the $40k, came right back off the claim to steal a statebred $25k pot of (if I'm not mistaken) around $50k. So while the handicapper might infer a negative move here, the reality from the horseman side of it is that they lost the $40k claim first time for $25k and, on the surface at least, still cleared $15k. Of course, the horse was in the barn for a month and the trainer got a nice $3k cut in all likelihood, the rider a nice share, the photographer, and the groom. But in the scheme of racetrack moves, its a winning move and a calculated one in my estimation, not a desperation move as a result of a regretful claim.

While often in these optional claimer combo races its kind of easy to gravitate towards those in on the allowance condition and not in for the tag - and rightfully so, logically at least, for the most part - and even if you do so unabashedly as habit this one still is tough to really blackball like that. She may not have ever been teasing divisional star-type ability, but she isn't one of those that tried to compete at this level unsuccessfully or with much effort getting through the conditions if she did so successfully and now is coming back for seconds after a long spell down at or near the bottom. She debuted with a full of maiden allowance statebreds and got beat a neck and though it did take a while and a drop to breed forty to get over the hump, she wasn't a bad maiden. Even the trip to Finger Lakes after winning her first two seems more like a protective move to go use an allowance condition to get the easy money rather than risk losing her or wait around to face tougher. Whatever, long story only mildly shorter: she seems like she has some inherent talent and isn't one of those fringe breed conditioned allowance caliber horses. Maybe she is in the tangible sense, as in what have you done for me lately, but under the hood the horsepower is there even if its been a number of miles since it ran quite right regularly.

Mercifully, I will now let you ponder your decision to suggest a discussion having waded through that gibberish and leave you with nothing more but regret. :D

[ReplayRandall]

Ocala Mike, please let me know, if you remember, why you liked this horse.

Any thoughts on the pace? Seems like a solid amount of speed in the race.

1st time in for a claim from long lay-off, not cranked with gapped mediocre works, looks like off-the-board to me.....There's 4 tough horses in this race who love the inner and figure, would be a real surprise if the 3 does anything noteworthy in this spot.

[Polish Navy]

I hope this time your posts aren't deleted. I like having your type around ;)

Thaskalos, this one is not a fan of the Shawshank Redemption :lol: :lol: :lol:

No need to call Mr. Thaskalos to assist you EMD4ME. I'm new here, but let me say, I enjoy your posts.
I live in Manhattan, travel to Aqueduct quite regularly, and I'm almost positive we've met.

Yes, Shawshank Redemption is in my top 5 of all time.
Merry Christmas to you Sir.

[EMD4ME]

No need to call Mr. Thaskalos to assist you EMD4ME. I'm new here, but let me say, I enjoy your posts.
I live in Manhattan, travel to Aqueduct quite regularly, and I'm almost positive we've met.

Yes, Shawshank Redemption is in my top 5 of all time.
Merry Christmas to you Sir.

I wasn't calling in reinforcements....I don't have any back up here :lol: :lol: :lol:

I was refering to a post thaskalos made earlier. Regardless. I saw that you had posted a question in a thread asking something to the effect of:

Does EMD have any credibility? or something to that effect. I assume it was just another potshot at me. It was deleted.

Forgive me if I was wrong in my assessment.

That's great! Please say hello next time. I'd love to meet more of PA land.

Merry Christmas to you as well!

[EMD4ME]

1st time in for a claim from long lay-off, not cranked with gapped mediocre works, looks like off-the-board to me.....There's 4 tough horses in this race who love the inner and figure, would be a real surprise if the 3 does anything noteworthy in this spot.

The more I looked for someone to take advantage of a pace set up, the more I don't like the closers. I cashed on the 4 once but that was with a total outside closer's bias at Belmont. I also think the rail horse isn't anything to write home about.

Nice wide open race. You can make a losing wager but make the right bet in a race like this.

[rsetup]

:10:, Uncle Southern

:1:, Pretty Enuff

Haven't played the AQU inner in ages.

[EasyGoer89]

The more I looked for someone to take advantage of a pace set up, the more I don't like the closers. I cashed on the 4 once but that was with a total outside closer's bias at Belmont. I also think the rail horse isn't anything to write home about.

Nice wide open race. You can make a losing wager but make the right bet in a race like this.

i was digging in here for a 'one move closer' to take advantage of the entire field of speed/presser types.

Didn't find one.

[EMD4ME]

i was digging in here for a 'one move closer' to take advantage of the entire field of speed/presser types.

Didn't find one.

Gate break and jock decisions will go a long way in this one (Especially the jocks of pps 3510).

[EMD4ME]

I know I'm babbling but in the interest of this race...........


This 4 has more of my attention now. Is a 3 year old in DEC, who's last FAST track Dirt fig was earned back on April 1st. Using Beyers, a 57, is no where near the peak figures of the others BUT APRIL to DEC is a long time (in terms of development/maturity).

When you add in the mud (IMHO bias assisted win in May) figure of a 70, this horse's A race can more than be enough for this field.

I have some interesting notes on this horse :

Jan 29-off beat slow, rushed up with a ton of speed, making winner move early and did so in the best part of the race.

Won in next start.

April 1st, IMHO poor rail but was so handy the entire half mile, rating well and finishing well when asked.

At this point, Little Bear Cat is my pick.

[EasyGoer89]

I know I'm babbling but in the interest of this race...........


This 4 has more of my attention now. Is a 3 year old in DEC, who's last FAST track Dirt fig was earned back on April 1st. Using Beyers, a 57, is no where near the peak figures of the others BUT APRIL to DEC is a long time (in terms of development/maturity).

When you add in the mud (IMHO bias assisted win in May) figure of a 70, this horse's A race can more than be enough for this field.

I have some interesting notes on this horse :

Jan 29-off beat slow, rushed up with a ton of speed, making winner move early and did so in the best part of the race.

Won in next start.

April 1st, IMHO poor rail but was so handy the entire half mile, rating well and finishing well when asked.

At this point, Little Bear Cat is my pick.

I noticed the 10 is an anti-HFC on the inner, does this mean anything at all that she's not so great on the inner track?

[appistappis]

when you're picking a horse every race, r.o.i is a ridiculous measurement.....no serious player would play every race.

[EMD4ME]

when you're picking a horse every race, r.o.i is a ridiculous measurement.....no serious player would play every race.

Yes yes yes. I've been given a round of bullets, a few grenades, a rocket launcher up my butt, a nuclear missile in this thread and a reminder that no serious player would bet every race and that ROI is a ridiculous measurement.

We've covered that. Thanks for reminding us. Would you care to add anything to the discussion of race 7 at AQU Wed?

[EMD4ME]

I noticed the 10 is an anti-HFC on the inner, does this mean anything at all that she's not so great on the inner track?

She ran decently early in her career on the inner (2 starts in 13/14) and she had 2 stakes races in 15 on the inner. Could just be a fluke thing.

If you compare the size of her VS. the 6 (they ran together on the main track recently) I prefer a horse the size of the 10 vs the size of the 6. They tend to corner better on the inner. Now, if there is a dead rail bias/dead speed bias, give me the bigger horse that will probably go wider on the turns.

[rsetup]

when you're picking a horse every race, r.o.i is a ridiculous measurement.....no serious player would play every race.

Should every home run hitter not take every at bat?

If one is a dilettante and plays multiple tracks, then I agree.

But I wonder about the case where one plays a single track and is immersed in pretty much everything having to do with the race analysis aspect. As a 'lone' handicapper, you can watch races all you want but you probably don't usually have other 'experts' to bounce opinions off of. And, there's a difference between watching a race for notes and watching a race, over and over, for the purpose of dissecting it on one or more programs. And discussing it with any number of others that have put in an equal amount of work. Not to mention being on the track for racing all year round and knowing any number of trainers and owners.

Now, I'm not positing that winning while betting every race is easy. And, I'm certainly not disparaging Serling's efforts as I respect his knowledge of the game. I just wonder how much his 'advantages' mitigate his 'disadvantages'.

What's even more interesting to me is that someone so immersed in the game probably has consistently very strong opinions. I would think that this person would be able to identify strong plays each week and hit a high percentage of them. What's realistic for this type of effort? 4 out of 10 @ 3:1. 4 out of 10 @ 5:2? Is that so farfetched? Why are people putting in all this work playing exotics (p4's, 5's, 6's, supers, etc.) rather than just taking their high ROI for win bets and making a killing?

[EMD4ME]

Should every home run hitter not take every at bat?

If one is a dilettante and plays multiple tracks, then I agree.

But I wonder about the case where one plays a single track and is immersed in pretty much everything having to do with the race analysis aspect. As a 'lone' handicapper, you can watch races all you want but you probably don't usually have other 'experts' to bounce opinions off of. And, there's a difference between watching a race for notes and watching a race, over and over, for the purpose of dissecting it on one or more programs. And discussing it with any number of others that have put in an equal amount of work. Not to mention being on the track for racing all year round and knowing any number of trainers and owners.

Now, I'm not positing that winning while betting every race is easy. And, I'm certainly not disparaging Serling's efforts as I respect his knowledge of the game. I just wonder how much his 'advantages' mitigate his 'disadvantages'.

What's even more interesting to me is that someone so immersed in the game probably has consistently very strong opinions. I would think that this person would be able to identify strong plays each week and hit a high percentage of them. What's realistic for this type of effort? 4 out of 10 @ 3:1. 4 out of 10 @ 5:2? Is that so farfetched? Why are people putting in all this work playing exotics (p4's, 5's, 6's, supers, etc.) rather than just taking their high ROI for win bets and making a killing?


For myself, I'd rather weigh out my opinions in well constructed Pick 4's 5's and 6's and I have no fear when it comes to putting in what's needed to make the wager. I will also bet to win but for me there is way more value in the picks.

Sunday is the latest example:

5/1 X 3/1 X 2/1 X 4/5 X 2/1. Parlay was about $850. Pick 5 paid $1800.

[EMD4ME]

Easygoer 89.

Who do you like in this race? Why?

[EasyGoer89]

Easygoer 89.

Who do you like in this race? Why?


tri's

2 5 10 with 1 2 5 6 7 10 with 4

1 2 5 6 7 10 with 2 5 10 with 4

and a super

2 5 10 with 1 2 5 6 7 10 with all with 4

1 2 5 6 7 10 with 2 5 10 with all with 4

and one more tri

2 5 6 10 w 2 5 6 10 with 4

I like your pick on the 4 as the 'action horse'

The top 3 chalks all appear to be faster than the 4, so if the 4 runs her race, she might finish underneath at boxcars.

[NorCalGreg]

I can't pass up a race being discussed--it's almost like there's a forum prize for picking the winner :D .

I gotta agree with JHS-- :5: SPLENDID GOLD 4-1 looks very good here.

-Comes off a win 11 days ago--shows he came out of that race sound
-WxW win... increased his lead at every call
-Perfectly spotted here today
-Claimed off last by Trainer showing flat-bet profit first off claim
-5 for 6 @ today's distance
-Better than 50% W/P lifetime

You know I gotta throw a spot-play in here...'Gold qualifies for my EARLY /LATE play = he led 1st call of his last race--and has the highest LATE pace figure of the entire field here today.
Also rsetup's :10: UNCLE SOUTHERN figures right there as the main danger-- :5: SPLENDID GOLD to Win w/ :10: - :5: straight exacta saver

Good luck boys--NCG

[EasyGoer89]

I can't pass up a race being discussed--it's almost like there's a forum prize for picking the winner :D .

I gotta agree with JHS-- :5: SPLENDID GOLD 4-1 looks very good here.

-Comes off a win 11 days ago--shows he came out of that race sound
-WxW win... increased his lead at every call
-Perfectly spotted here today
-Claimed off last by Trainer showing flat-bet profit first off claim
-5 for 6 @ today's distance
-Better than 50% W/P lifetime

You know I gotta throw a spot-play in here...'Gold qualifies for my EARLY /LATE play = he led 1st call of his last race--and has the highest LATE pace figure of the entire field here today.
Also rsetup's :10: UNCLE SOUTHERN figures right there as the main danger-- :5: SPLENDID GOLD to Win w/ :10: - :5: straight exacta saver

Good luck boys--NCG

She also freaked on Inner track w today's jock in Feb of 2016, maybe she can even move up over this surface. She's strong for sure.

[aaron]

Non Finisce has a real shot in this race, in my opinion She should get a good trip on or near the lead.She has shown she can win slightly off the pace. Her last race, she was against better and had a wide trip. She is now off a 164 day layoff, but has won off a 156 day layoff. She has run well on the inner breaking her maiden at 6f. She is also coming out of a key race, where the winner and show horses won and improved.On my numbers 4 horses out of that race improved their numbers in their next race.To me the race looks like a legitimate key race.

[classhandicapper]

[/B]

Sunday is the latest example:

5/1 X 3/1 X 2/1 X 4/5 X 2/1. Parlay was about $850. Pick 5 paid $1800.

The major advantage of the Picks is the ability to leverage multiple value oriented opinions into greater value than a win bet. But since most exotic players spread a lot trying to hit the ticket and manage their bankroll, they dilute that potential value advantage, wind up just bucking the higher take in the exotics, and make it less likely they will win at the end of the year. (it's different for someone like you that excels at both handicapping and ticket construction)

The Picks will typically pay more than the parlay not because they are a better deal mathematically. It's because if you theoretically played a parlay you would be put a lot more money through the window taxed at a lower rate.

[Secondbest]

Don't like to pick chalk but Riot Worthy looks like she could take this

[classhandicapper]

I know I'm babbling but in the interest of this race...........


I could easily spend an hour on that race and not feel very good about my selection.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Taking a shot with :4: little bear cat and :8: lakeside sunset

[EMD4ME]

I could easily spend an hour on that race and not feel very good about my selection.

I totally agree....

Anyone have a race they want to discuss for Thursday? and Friday?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I could easily spend an hour on that race and not feel very good about my selection.

In yet another attempt to alleviate overzealous headaching over competitive races by suspect horses I had a duh moment the other day. Just write down the % strength of opinion on the race. 75% or less=moderate bet at best. 80% or more double down and score. Wasn't deliberately trying to instill the corny humor but this little notation on my bet lines puts the decision making into perspective.

[Maximillion]

I think the 8 Lakeside Sunset can do a little better than her last few would suggest.My guess is she will probably be ridden more aggressively here as thats her best and likely only hope. Lots of chances here- but confident she can run well in this spot with one of her better efforts,and at likely double digit odds cant have everything perfect.

[classhandicapper]

I totally agree....

Anyone have a race they want to discuss for Thursday? and Friday?

This is my thinking before scratches and seeing the early races (quick look).

There looks to be enough speed to keep the pace between honest and fast. Most of the speeds seem capable of sitting just off the pace and picking up a horse or two. Those are always the trickiest for me because it's not always clear to me which ones will go.

Pretty Enuff likes to win and could get a perfect trip sitting inside just off a potentially fast pace.

Riot Worthy finished between two very nice fillies last out, seems to be improving, and Charleton Baker is very good off these short layoffs I think she's the best horse, but coming back at 6F "feels" a little like a prep or at least not ideal even though this horse has won sprinting. At 7F should be a clear choice for me.

Non Finisce Mai was in the mix early in a race that fell apart, eased back, and then was wide on the turn against better. She ran better than it looks. Previous was good, but her record is kind of gappy with layoffs (most likely she has some issues). So who knows how she's going to run off the layoff. If she can fire an "A" race she's better than she looks.

Little Bear Cat was improving, but her last race wasn't as good, she's coming back off a layoff, and this is not exactly a very good move for Cannizzo. Could benefit from a fast pace if all the speed stays in.

Splendid Gold is the kind of horse I'd often be interested in playing because she was claimed by Toscono (which I like). Offsetting that is she's coming out of a race where she controlled the pace and was probably not as good as she looked. Normally I might be tempted to take her off the claim anyway because she has other good back races that could win here, but Toscano hasn't been as sharp with his claims lately.

Kristina's Persona benefited a little from the fast pace last out, but she's not an easy toss or anything

Roman Ceres is a pass for me, but it's not like I would be shocked if she came up with a good race off a couple of very fast works.

Lakeside Sunset is a pass for me.

E Warfare will probably be out there winging early and seemed to be improving, but I can take her off that last given her prior races weren't good enough either.

Uncle Sourthern is the kind of horse I'd usually have some interest in because she stalked a fast pace, put away the favorite, and ran quite well last out. But there's plenty of speed in this race before scratches and from post 10 it's not very clear what kind of trip she's going to get.

I guess I'd be most interested in #2, and #5. #10 is also interesting if she can work out a trip and a little #1 to perhaps get a rail trip off the fast pace. Maybe that changes after we the scratches and how the track is playing. Basically my opinion comes close to matching the ML. #passhandicapper

[Robert Fischer]

10 Uncle Southern is the really important thing in the race to understand, and I don't understand her well enough to play along. I wouldn't be surprised if she wins routinely, or if she tires badly.


The strongest thing that I can say about this race = "I don't know."

[EMD4ME]

10 Uncle Southern is the really important thing in the race to understand, and I don't understand her well enough to play along. I wouldn't be surprised if she wins routinely, or if she tires badly.


The strongest thing that I can say about this race = "I don't know."


We can never know. IMHO, here's why.

The 10 was beat last time while being hustled 3 wide the whole way. The horse wpb (won the pace battle) but lost the war late.

Connections and/or jock might say let's rate a bit today and hope the 3&5 hurt eachother.

Connections of the 3 and 5 might think the same.

The 9 might be quarter horsed to the lead etc etc etc.

It's a race where many variables cant take place and totally alter the outcome.

Good race to cast a wide net in the picks and root for value OR get hurt by the 2 or 10.

Good race to make many different types of wagers (supers, tri's ex's) based on value, where even if you lose, you don't mind as it was a solid value filled wager. (If you have some sort of opinions).

Card 5 of these in a pick 5 and you might/should get a $100,000 payoff for $2.

[EMD4ME]

In yet another attempt to alleviate overzealous headaching over competitive races by suspect horses I had a duh moment the other day. Just write down the % strength of opinion on the race. 75% or less=moderate bet at best. 80% or more double down and score. Wasn't deliberately trying to instill the corny humor but this little notation on my bet lines puts the decision making into perspective.

I 100% agree CincyHorseplayer!

[Ocala Mike]

Non Finisce Mai was in the mix early in a race that fell apart, eased back, and then was wide on the turn against better. She ran better than it looks. Previous was good, but her record is kind of gappy with layoffs (most likely she has some issues). So who knows how she's going to run off the layoff. If she can fire an "A" race she's better than she looks.




And that, EMD4ME, is pretty much why I tabbed her to watch, but the layoff and the possible issues make the bet dodgy. I will demand a big price, and I'm sorry I picked a monkey puzzle of a race.

tlg has the race 7-5-2-10, incidentally.

[EMD4ME]

And that, EMD4ME, is pretty much why I tabbed her to watch, but the layoff and the possible issues make the bet dodgy. I will demand a big price, and I'm sorry I picked a monkey puzzle of a race.

tlg has the race 7-5-2-10, incidentally.

Wed 12/14 Top Picks by TLG:

Race 1 3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 2 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 3 6 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 4 7 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5 7 - 10 - 5 - 4
Race 6 6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 7 7 - 5 - 2 - 10
Race 8 2 - 7 - 4 - 1


I like his gusto with picking the 7 in race 7. 12/1 HFC (2/2) who has nice WO for the return. Can't go wrong with that pick in a skullbuster.


Don't be SORRY! Stimulating race to work with, good race to pick.

Good luck making money tomorrow!

[EMD4ME]

Since we don't have TLG's picks for Wed thru Sat of last week, I think the Sunday 0/8 abberation should be wiped out.

Let's start with this wed 12/14/16. I will unfortunately (really fortunately for PA nation :lol: ) be tied up tomorrow from 8 am till 11 pm so, I would appreciate anyone's help with this thread tomorrow and overall.

[arw629]

I landed on the 7 as well as it is hard to ignore the inner form and recent works....my 2nd pick is the 6 who I think might be able to trip out behind those inside speeds...who do you all think goes favored?

[Robert Fischer]

We can never know. IMHO, here's why.

The 10 was beat last time while being hustled 3 wide the whole way. The horse wpb (won the pace battle) but lost the war late.

Connections and/or jock might say let's rate a bit today and hope the 3&5 hurt eachother.

Connections of the 3 and 5 might think the same.

The 9 might be quarter horsed to the lead etc etc etc.

It's a race where many variables cant take place and totally alter the outcome.

Good race to cast a wide net in the picks and root for value OR get hurt by the 2 or 10.

Good race to make many different types of wagers (supers, tri's ex's) based on value, where even if you lose, you don't mind as it was a solid value filled wager. (If you have some sort of opinions).

Card 5 of these in a pick 5 and you might/should get a $100,000 payoff for $2.

Jose seems to get a run no matter what (whether the pace inexplicably fails to materialize and he jogs on the lead, or whether we see pace and an E/P style 1st run).

The pace is always a legit consideration, and this race has potential to heat up, but I don't think there will be a huge pace dependency w/ 10.
I figure he likely runs a winning style race either way, and either stops or keeps going.

I can't take your 4 in here , even as a long shot.

Riot Worthy (is she the 2?) is one possible 'by default' type, if the favorite stops, but she is just awful value. She wanted to quit so badly last time, but the race carried her to 2nd. StatebredAllowance runners with pretty form are hardly the road to riches in OC (even inner-A).

Irad's horse (6? krista? or whatever) is another 'by default' type. She's a little bit uglier than Riot Worthy , which is good, but you are really being subject to a lot of randomness when you start leaning on lesser quality types to 'style' their way up into a scenario.

What do you make of Splendid Gold the 5?
Looks like a candidate for a disappearing act to me, and I think she'll go off ('cold') higher than her 4/1 ml.
I could always be wrong on both counts.

Roman Ceres would be interesting in a route race. Could be a bet back stretching out next time, if she runs a nice even race behind an 8/5 Uncle Southern.

[EMD4ME]

Jose seems to get a run no matter what (whether the pace inexplicably fails to materialize and he jogs on the lead, or whether we see pace and an E/P style 1st run).

The pace is always a legit consideration, and this race has potential to heat up, but I don't think there will be a huge pace dependency w/ 10.
I figure he likely runs a winning style race either way, and either stops or keeps going.

I can't take your 4 in here , even as a long shot.

Riot Worthy (is she the 2?) is one possible 'by default' type, if the favorite stops, but she is just awful value. She wanted to quit so badly last time, but the race carried her to 2nd. StatebredAllowance runners with pretty form are hardly the road to riches in OC (even inner-A).

Irad's horse (6? krista? or whatever) is another 'by default' type. She's a little bit uglier than Riot Worthy , which is good, but you are really being subject to a lot of randomness when you start leaning on lesser quality types to 'style' their way up into a scenario.

What do you make of Splendid Gold the 5?
Looks like a candidate for a disappearing act to me, and I think she'll go off ('cold') higher than her 4/1 ml.
I could always be wrong on both counts.

Roman Ceres would be interesting in a route race. Could be a bet back stretching out next time, if she runs a nice even race behind an 8/5 Uncle Southern.


I agree that odds are Jose gets to decide his trip from the outside and will get a clean trip.

If I was a win better or picking 1 horse to win, I can't bet the 6. Price will be too short with Irad on and I don't like how tall she is. I need her to prove she can win on the inner in a field with a possible logjam in the 2nd flight.

I am not in love with the 5 as she jogged her opening quarter last time. Can happen again, as at NYRA, you could run a Kentucky Derby with 20 horses in it on a speed favoring gold rail track as the 16th race of 16 and the jocks might choke out, with feet on the dashboard as 1 horse jogs wire to wire.

I think there is no wrong selection here. As long as you demand value. Especially if you are picking 1 horse on top. That's my humble .02

[NorCalGreg]

We can never know. IMHO, here's why.

The 10 was beat last time while being hustled 3 wide the whole way. The horse wpb (won the pace battle) but lost the war late.

Connections and/or jock might say let's rate a bit today and hope the 3&5 hurt eachother.

Connections of the 3 and 5 might think the same.

The 9 might be quarter horsed to the lead etc etc etc.

It's a race where many variables cant take place and totally alter the outcome.

Good race to cast a wide net in the picks and root for value OR get hurt by the 2 or 10.

Good race to make many different types of wagers (supers, tri's ex's) based on value, where even if you lose, you don't mind as it was a solid value filled wager. (If you have some sort of opinions).

Card 5 of these in a pick 5 and you might/should get a $100,000 payoff for $2.


It's just one race you brought up---requiring 1 Win selection. Pick or Pass.

[EMD4ME]

It's just one race you brought up---requiring 1 Win selection. Pick or Pass.

HUH?

[NorCalGreg]

HUH?


Okay my bad..you didn't bring it up. Ocala Mike did.

[EMD4ME]

Okay my bad..you didn't bring it up. Ocala Mike did.

It's all good NCG.

I thought you meant : pick a selection EMD. I did in post 90. Small push for the 4 in a wide open race. My second choice is the 1, after further review, but you can only pick 1 horse , so the 4 it is.

[arw629]

Can I predict that one horse will be way over bet in this race and wire the field? That's the play and I think TLG might agree!!

[FakeNameChanged]

It's all good NCG.

I thought you meant : pick a selection EMD. I did in post 90. Small push for the 4 in a wide open race. My second choice is the 1, after further review, but you can only pick 1 horse , so the 4 it is.

A man after my heart. I was debating between the 4 and 6, with the 1 to get involved. This has all the qualities, at least in my limited ability, to be a chaos event. Since EMD is going with the 4, I will reverse and go with the 6, with the 4 and 1.

[Redboard]

:9: E Warfare has hit the board in all five of her starts, except for the last which was on the slop. I'll need a dry surface and at least 12-1 or pass.

[rsetup]

:9: E Warfare has hit the board in all five of her starts, except for the last which was on the slop. I'll need a dry surface and at least 12-1 or pass.

Is the WORM, Garcia, riding the Big A this winter? Couldn't find some rock to crawl under for a few months? It's a wonder he hasn't killed anyone yet.

[cj]

Is the WORM, Garcia, riding the Big A this winter? Couldn't find some rock to crawl under for a few months? It's a wonder he hasn't killed anyone yet.

www.equibase.com

[rsetup]

NO POLITICS...that is twice I've had to type that today. Take heed everyone, no more.

[thaskalos]

:5: Splendid Gold Sits just off the pace, and blows by them.

:6: Krista's Persona Capable if she doesn't rally too wide.

Honorable mention to the 9 and then the 4...whose only downfall was the fitness concern.

[EasyGoer89]

:5: Splendid Gold Sits just off the pace, and blows by them.

:6: Krista's Persona Capable if she doesn't rally too wide.

Honorable mention to the 9 and then the 4...whose only downfall was the fitness concern.

Early bird catches the worm. ;)

[thaskalos]

Early bird catches the worm. ;)

Not always. Sometimes the early bird loses both, money AND sleep. :)

[EMD4ME]

Is three a crowd? :lol:

[thaskalos]

Is three a crowd? :lol:

The horseplayer who sleeps soundly at night isn't betting ENOUGH...IMO. :)

[sammy the sage]

Early bird catches the worm. ;)

2nd rat gets the cheese ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

:3: and :6: with tops in the slop and :2: vs a weak pace on 8/19. FL shipper doing all it can without getting faster :1: . Liked the :10: first race back on dirt. Battled half mile through decent fractions while wide and seized command only to be repulsed. Little less aggressive ride and she sits a perfect trip and earns a figure closer to the turf races which gets it done. But will roll with the :5: .Last was a public workout but the 6/16 race should be comparable here pace wise after 2 intervening 44 change races. Stalks and pops. All this is odds dependent. 85% strength of opinion. Could dutch and double key both if odds are there. Bet one or other should one drop below 2-1.

[EMD4ME]

I am no weatherman but it looks like Thursday will be in the 20's with wind chills bringing the real feel to 5°…

Thursdays card maybe a no go.

[lamboguy]

I am no weatherman but it looks like Thursday will be in the 20's with wind chills bringing the real feel to 5°…

Thursdays card maybe a no go.i finally dodged a weather bullet for the first time in my life!

on that note the greatest weather related story took place at the mountain about 4 years ago. they cancelled a card and the maiden $5000 had a full field. every entrant received a Z DATE, all the trainers got together and entered their horses back 3 days later into a MSW with a purse of about $25,000! since it was a full field the legit msw couldn't get in the race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I am no weatherman but it looks like Thursday will be in the 20's with wind chills bringing the real feel to 5°…

Thursdays card maybe a no go.

This is why I don't bet any northern tracks after November=too many wasted efforts on cancelled cards. The farthest I go north is Hot Springs, Arkansas! But I must say that after years of being disenchanted with one of my home tracks in Turfway, after being kicked off my floor and they switched to synthetics, I have been handicapping the races this year and winning. Going to spend a week there over the holidays.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Taking a shot with :4: little bear cat and :8: lakeside sunset

:8: scr

:4: little bear car and :1: pretty enuff

[Robert Fischer]

after this thread, and Talking Horses...

is it possible that the :10: goes off near the ML of 7/2?


i thought that this was an obviously high ML, and :10: would be 5/2-2-1 (unless she 'took money' and was sent off even lower)


I know, at times, everyone tries to be clever in these spots, but maybe I was way off?

@7/2 she looks like a solid bet.
I'll believe it when I see it.

[arw629]

after this thread, and Talking Horses...

is it possible that the :10: goes off near the ML of 7/2?


i thought that this was an obviously high ML, and :10: would be 5/2-2-1 (unless she 'took money' and was sent off even lower)


I know, at times, everyone tries to be clever in these spots, but maybe I was way off?

@7/2 she looks like a solid bet.
I'll believe it when I see it.

I'm not surprised by this but I am surprised how much money the 5 is taking ...i thought 5 would be closer to 8-1 than 4-1 ...if u read my post yesterday 5 should be the play bc he is way over bet!

[arw629]

Splendid Gold was overbet and ran like I thought she would...who was betting her at 3-1?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Splendid Gold was overbet and ran like I thought she would...who was betting her at 3-1?

Bet at 7/2. Dropped to 3-1 and cancelled. Boxed 2-5-10. :5: really did run like a turd though. Not because no easy lead though. Ran off the pace fine in June. Just did not fire at all.

[classhandicapper]

Splendid Gold was overbet and ran like I thought she would...who was betting her at 3-1?

I think she was getting bet off the claim. Toscono is generally good off the claim, but as I noted earlier in the thread he hasn't been moving up horses lately. Hard to take off her last where she controlled against weaker but hard to toss. Had she run an A race people would be saying it was a decent play off the claim.

The scratch of the 9 helped the 10. It took one of the speeds out of the race and made it easier for the 10 to work out a trip from outside.

The 2 was the obvious class of the race. The only question I had was 6f. Asked and answered.

[classhandicapper]

Bet at 7/2. Dropped to 3-1 and cancelled. Boxed 2-5-10. :5: really did run like a turd though. Not because no easy lead though. Ran off the pace fine in June. Just did not fire at all.

#1 sneaked up the rail and got the trip I thought could get her a piece. Decent triple.

[arw629]

I think she was getting bet off the claim. Toscono is generally good off the claim, but as I noted earlier in the thread he hasn't been moving up horses lately. Hard to take off her last where she controlled against weaker but hard to toss. Had she run an A race people would be saying it was a decent play off the claim.

The scratch of the 9 helped the 10. It took one of the speeds out of the race and made it easier for the 10 to work out a trip from outside.

The 2 was the obvious class of the race. The only question I had was 6f. Asked and answered.

She was claimed off Brad Cox tho...i can't bet horses claimed off really good trainers bc they seem to rarely run back to that form let alone improve ...the rare case I would bet them back is a very quick turnaround and this one would almost qualify for me but I avoid horses like these like the plague

[Secondbest]

I think she was getting bet off the claim. Toscono is generally good off the claim, but as I noted earlier in the thread he hasn't been moving up horses lately. Hard to take off her last where she controlled against weaker but hard to toss. Had she run an A race people would be saying it was a decent play off the claim.

The scratch of the 9 helped the 10. It took one of the speeds out of the race and made it easier for the 10 to work out a trip from outside.

The 2 was the obvious class of the race. The only question I had was 6f. Asked and answered.
That's why I liked her.Class usually tells.

[CincyHorseplayer]

#1 sneaked up the rail and got the trip I thought could get her a piece. Decent triple.

I'm stupid. With both the horses I liked in the race less than 7/2and IMO a muddy pace picture I normally pass. I threw in a small bet just because of this thread and just won at GP. Unacceptable!

[arw629]

That's why I liked her.Class usually tells.



I edited this...I'm sorry I thought you were referring to 5 Splendid Gold being the class of the race causing me to scratch my head

[classhandicapper]

She was claimed off Brad Cox tho...i can't bet horses claimed off really good trainers bc they seem to rarely run back to that form let alone improve ...the rare case I would bet them back is a very quick turnaround and this one would almost qualify for me but I avoid horses like these like the plague

The "claim from" is a good angle. I like that too. In this case, I would have considered playing the horse anyway if Toscono was getting good results from his recent claims, but he hasn't been (as I noted earlier). So you were probably more right to toss than I was to be afraid.

[arw629]

The "claim from" is a good angle. I like that too. In this case, I would have considered playing the horse anyway if Toscono was getting good results from his recent claims, but he hasn't been (as I noted earlier). So you were probably more right to toss than I was to be afraid.

Yea I always look at who the horse was claimed from and avoid the big names at all costs ...Brad Cox, Jorge Navarro, Karl Broberg, you get the idea...

[thaskalos]

"After every race...another system is born." -- Tom Ainslie

[EasyGoer89]

tri's

2 5 10 with 1 2 5 6 7 10 with 4

1 2 5 6 7 10 with 2 5 10 with 4

and a super

2 5 10 with 1 2 5 6 7 10 with all with 4

1 2 5 6 7 10 with 2 5 10 with all with 4

and one more tri

2 5 6 10 w 2 5 6 10 with 4

I like your pick on the 4 as the 'action horse'

The top 3 chalks all appear to be faster than the 4, so if the 4 runs her race, she might finish underneath at boxcars.

Thank you :rolleyes:

[classhandicapper]

"After every race...another system is born." -- Tom Ainslie

How about "after every race, people analyze the results and see where their thinking may have gone astray?" ;)

[Ocala Mike]

Congrats to those who beat this race! My horse was jinxed by the TVG guys who quite obviously don't know how to pronounce Italian. She is worth following, and for those who care, her name is loosely translated as "It Never Ends."

Kudos to the NYRA race caller who pronounced it properly.

[Secondbest]

How about "after every race, people analyze the results and see where their thinking may have gone astray?" ;)
Handicapping your handicapping .Always a good idea.

[thaskalos]

How about "after every race, people analyze the results and see where their thinking may have gone astray?" ;)

I used to do this too, but I gave up the practice...because the "right play" seems so obvious after the race is run.

[Robert Fischer]

Race played out exactly how it looked.


:10: controlled the race and was either going to stop or win

the underlayed :2: was a very obvious and logical contender



before the race, I may have guessed 5/2 as 'fair' for the 10, but like I said, I just didn't know enough about the 10 to play along.

Wasn't a difficult race to 'survive', as a part of a multi-race sequence, but this was a difficult race to derive actual value from, as far as leveraging any sort of opinion.

That is how tough racing is in terms of a play-every-race game!
I knew the race fairly well. I could see 2 underlays (2,5). 2 Underlays! I could see the important horse who would dominate the scenarios and probabilities. Yet, I didn't know enough about the important horse to make more than a broad estimate in terms of her probability of winning.
Think about that when debating play-every-race ROI.

[arw629]

Race played out exactly how it looked.


:10: controlled the race and was either going to stop or win

the underlayed :2: was a very obvious and logical contender



before the race, I may have guessed 5/2 as 'fair' for the 10, but like I said, I just didn't know enough about the 10 to play along.

Wasn't a difficult race to 'survive', as a part of a multi-race sequence, but this was a difficult race to derive actual value from, as far as leveraging any sort of opinion.

That is how tough racing is in terms of a play-every-race game!
I knew the race fairly well. I could see 2 underlays (2,5). 2 Underlays! I could see the important horse who would dominate the scenarios and probabilities. Yet, I didn't know enough about the important horse to make more than a broad estimate in terms of her probability of winning.
Think about that when debating play-every-race ROI.

EasyGoer found the value in the race betting tris and supers with the 4 underneath ...he posted two winning supers...it paid 651 for a buck

[rsetup]

What would any race be without post commentary by Class and Fischer?

Paresis before the fact; garrulity after.

[thaskalos]

She was claimed off Brad Cox tho...i can't bet horses claimed off really good trainers bc they seem to rarely run back to that form let alone improve ...the rare case I would bet them back is a very quick turnaround and this one would almost qualify for me but I avoid horses like these like the plague

Lets see if I understand you in this thread:

In your post #141, you were so impressed by the betting action on the 5-horse...that you declared this horse as "the play". But in your very next post, after the race was run, you were disparaging the 5...and wondering who was betting it at such a low price. And now...you are giving us your reasons for "avoiding such horses like the plague".

And this all makes SENSE to you? If you have such "sound" reasons for "avoiding the 5-horse like the plague"...then, why did you call this horse "the play" in post #141?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thank you :rolleyes:

Nicely done! :ThmbUp:

[NorCalGreg]

Thank you :rolleyes:


Classic SRU right there....you are so busted :cool:

[arw629]

Lets see if I understand you in this thread:

In your post #141, you were so impressed by the betting action on the 5-horse...that you declared this horse as "the play". But in your very next post, after the race was run, you were disparaging the 5...and wondering who was betting it at such a low price. And now...you are giving us your reasons for "avoiding such horses like the plague".

And this all makes SENSE to you? If you have such "sound" reasons for "avoiding the 5-horse like the plague"...then, why did you call this horse "the play" in post #141?

It was sarcasm

[thaskalos]

SRU demonstrated to us here that the point of this game isn't to make "selections"...but to make BETS! He took a horse that was an unlikely winner...and created a profitable betting situation around it.

Well done! :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

What would any race be without post commentary by Class and Fischer?

Paresis before the fact; garrulity after.

At least you have a strong fundamental understanding of the models that carry the heavy freight, in race dynamics. :ThmbUp:

[arw629]

Lets see if I understand you in this thread:

In your post #141, you were so impressed by the betting action on the 5-horse...that you declared this horse as "the play". But in your very next post, after the race was run, you were disparaging the 5...and wondering who was betting it at such a low price. And now...you are giving us your reasons for "avoiding such horses like the plague".

And this all makes SENSE to you? If you have such "sound" reasons for "avoiding the 5-horse like the plague"...then, why did you call this horse "the play" in post #141?

If you read my previous posts on the thread where I said whoever was overbet would be the play you would understand. ..right before posttime I reiterated this by saying thr 5 was way overbet and must be the play...i thought the explanation points also made the sarcasm known

Read my post number 123

[cj]

Thank you :rolleyes:


Without bet amounts there is really no way to know if that was a good call or not.

[Redboard]

SRU demonstrated to us here that the point of this game isn't to make "selections"...but to make BETS! He took a horse that was an unlikely winner...and created a profitable betting situation around it.

Well done! :ThmbUp:

If he bet the minimum for al his tri's / super's ($0.50 tri, $0.10 super) he would have have gotten back about the same payout as if he put that entire amount on the favorite to win.

[PaceAdvantage]

What would any race be without post commentary by Class and Fischer?

Paresis before the fact; garrulity after.This will be your first and last warning. I know you can't control yourself, so it's only a matter of time now.

[thaskalos]

If he bet the minimum for al his tri's / super's ($0.50 tri, $0.10 super) he would have have gotten back about the same payout as if he put that entire amount on the favorite to win.

But he may not have LIKED the 2 in that race. If he really liked the 2...then he would have isolated the 2 on top to a greater extent...something that he didn't do. He only had an opinion about the longshot 4...and he created a profitable situation around this opinion. A clear example of the advantage afforded us by the flexibility of exotic wagering...IMO. We can make a profit...even if we have no opinion on who will win the race.

SRU -- I mean "EasyGoer89" -- is to be COMMENDED...IMO. :ThmbUp:

[arw629]

But he may not have LIKED the 2 in that race. If he really liked the 2...then he would have isolated the 2 on top to a greater extent...something that he didn't do. He only had an opinion about the longshot 4...and he created a profitable situation around this opinion. A clear example of the advantage afforded us by the flexibility of exotic wagering...IMO. We can make a profit...even if we have no opinion on who will win the race.

SRU -- I mean "EasyGoer89" -- is to be COMMENDED...IMO. :ThmbUp:


100 percent agree

[EasyGoer89]

Without bet amounts there is really no way to know if that was a good call or not.

I don't put amounts because each person has different bankroll sizes, last time I checked the minimum super was 10 cents, so those bets were certainly affordable to most everyone.

[cj]

I don't put amounts because each person has different bankroll sizes, last time I checked the minimum super was 10 cents, so those bets were certainly affordable to most everyone.

You missed the point, as usual. If you did dime supers and $3 tris, for example, you probably broke even at best (I'm not doing the math, don't care that much)

[EasyGoer89]

You missed the point, as usual. If you did dime supers and $3 tris, for example, you probably broke even at best (I'm not doing the math, don't care that much)

Sorry, my bad, I'll fix that next time.

[Redboard]

But he may not have LIKED the 2 in that race. If he really liked the 2...then he would have isolated the 2 on top to a greater extent...something that he didn't do. He only had an opinion about the longshot 4...and he created a profitable situation around this opinion. A clear example of the advantage afforded us by the flexibility of exotic wagering...IMO. We can make a profit...even if we have no opinion on who will win the race.

SRU -- I mean "EasyGoer89" -- is to be COMMENDED...IMO. :ThmbUp:

OK. But I thought this thread was about trying to beat the expert by picking another horse to win, not posting exotic bets ..... or.... er ..., EMD, what is/was the purpose of this thread?

[johnhannibalsmith]

...what is/was the purpose of this thread?

So that I could extol the virtues of a mare that ran like someone dosed her lasix with LSD.

[cj]

Looks like a new record for this type thread. The tracking lasted exactly zero days.

[FakeNameChanged]

Must be some kind of record.

[EMD4ME]

Looks like a new record for this type thread. The tracking lasted exactly zero days.

Huh?

[EasyGoer89]

Looks like a new record for this type thread. The tracking lasted exactly zero days.

Bet 45
Collect 130.30

+85.30

[EMD4ME]

Since we don't have TLG's picks for Wed thru Sat of last week, I think the Sunday 0/8 abberation should be wiped out.

Let's start with this wed 12/14/16. I will unfortunately (really fortunately for PA nation :lol: ) be tied up tomorrow from 8 am till 11 pm so, I would appreciate anyone's help with this thread tomorrow and overall.

Tough feature race. As we can see by everyone's travails.

Wednesday 12/14/16 TLG Tracking

0/8 $0 returned on $16 wagered.

Meet total $0 returned 0/8 $16 wagered (backed out Sunday's results in fairness).

Thursday might be a cancelled card.

Maybe it's best we skip to Saturday as Friday is looking really COLD in NY as well.

[EasyGoer89]

Tough feature race. As we can see by everyone's travails.

Wednesday 12/14/16 TLG Tracking

0/8 $0 returned on $16 wagered.

Meet total $0 returned 0/8 $16 wagered (backed out Sunday's results in fairness).

Thursday might be a cancelled card.

Maybe it's best we skip to Saturday as Friday is looking really COLD in NY as well.

Why thu cancelled? Snow?

[EMD4ME]

Bet 45
Collect 130.30

+85.30

HUH times 3......

What in the world is that? Your bet total?

[EMD4ME]

Why thu cancelled? Snow?

20 degree forecast with windchills at 5 degrees. There aren't any Angel's and Jorge's in this jockey colony.

They make money by cancelling.

[EMD4ME]

OK. But I thought this thread was about trying to beat the expert by picking another horse to win, not posting exotic bets ..... or.... er ..., EMD, what is/was the purpose of this thread?

Kinda, yes.

I don't bet one horse to win but I forced myself to because of the thread type.

I commend Easygoer89 as he/she bet exactly how I bet. I keyed the 1 and 4 in supers boxed with certain horses, weighed out BUT that it is not the spirit of the thread.

But being that I am not a moderator, I didn't say anything.

Bottom line, yes, we're discussing just how hard it is to pick 1 winner, in advance, against not knowing a bias, scratches etc.

[EMD4ME]

My running total for this thread. One bet, one win.

Please don't end up like SRU. (A memory) :lol: :bang: :kiss:

[EMD4ME]

But he may not have LIKED the 2 in that race. If he really liked the 2...then he would have isolated the 2 on top to a greater extent...something that he didn't do. He only had an opinion about the longshot 4...and he created a profitable situation around this opinion. A clear example of the advantage afforded us by the flexibility of exotic wagering...IMO. We can make a profit...even if we have no opinion on who will win the race.

SRU -- I mean "EasyGoer89" -- is to be COMMENDED...IMO. :ThmbUp:

YES, I agree. You don't need to pick winners to cash. You can pick suck ups to suck up and cash big in this game :ThmbUp:

Many different ways to skin a cat.

Horizontals, show parlays, win bets, sups etc.

[cj]

Bet 45
Collect 130.30

+85.30

No way Jose, you can't declare amounts after the fact.

If I have to keep deleting you again, gonna be a short return.

[EMD4ME]

No way Jose, you can't declare amounts after the fact.

Easygoer89, I agree. Unacceptable :blush:

[cj]

Easygoer89, I agree. Unacceptable :blush:

It would be like this:

R3 1
R5 2
R7 3

Only the 2 wins in R5 and pays $20, but I had $100 on him and $2 on the others.

[EMD4ME]

It would be like this:

R3 1
R5 2
R7 3

Only the 2 wins in R5 and pays $20, but I had $100 on him and $2 on the others.

Make sense CJ, I agree. Can't disagree.

[EMD4ME]

Since Saturday's looking to be in the high 30's-40's, let's take a look at Saturday's 6th race.

A Maiden Race with a decent field.

Thoughts PA Nation?

[EMD4ME]

Just in case.....

Thursday Dec 15th, 2016 TLG Picks!

Race 1 2 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 2 8 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 4 1 - 6 - 2 - 10
Race 5 3 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 6 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 7 8 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 8 6 - 4 - 9 - 7

[PhantomOnTour]

Tough feature race. As we can see by everyone's travails.

Wednesday 12/14/16 TLG Tracking

0/8 $0 returned on $16 wagered.

Meet total $0 returned 0/8 $16 wagered (backed out Sunday's results in fairness).

Thursday might be a cancelled card.

Maybe it's best we skip to Saturday as Friday is looking really COLD in NY as well.
EMD4ME Tracking:
Meet Total: $0 returned (0/1)

[arw629]

Since Saturday's looking to be in the high 30's-40's, let's take a look at Saturday's 6th race.

A Maiden Race with a decent field.

Thoughts PA Nation?

I must admit I'm a sucker for Mott second time starters ...especially routing ....he doesn't have his horses cranked up first time out and rarely do you see them get really asked by jocks ....his horses vastly improve second out and he was able to get Jose to ride ...
:5: Lockdown is my pick

[EMD4ME]

EMD4ME Tracking:
Meet Total: $0 returned (0/1)

FFFFFinally, a volunteer! Thank you PhantomOnTour :ThmbUp: ;) :lol: :lol:

[EMD4ME]

I must admit I'm a sucker for Mott second time starters ...especially routing ....he doesn't have his horses cranked up first time out and rarely do you see them get really asked by jocks ....his horses vastly improve second out and he was able to get Jose to ride ...
:5: Lockdown is my pick

Off my initial scrub of the race, I would agree. I'll make my formal pick later on tonight.

[classhandicapper]

What would any race be without post commentary by Class and Fischer?

Paresis before the fact; garrulity after.

Maybe you should try looking earlier in the thread where I analyzed every horse in the race and stated who I thought was the best horse in the race, who needed to work out a trip, and who might sneak in with a good trip from the rail and then listed them in order of preference.

Of course you have no interest in productive two way conversation. You'd rather continue with the kind of personal attacks and jealousy of everyone around you that gets you barred everywhere you go on a regular basis.

[cj]

Thursday is officially canx.

[EMD4ME]

Thursday is officially canx.

Tomorrows weather forecast says much less wind tomorrow but just as cold. I hope they give tomorrow a shot. Today's gusts could reach 27 MPH, so it is best they don't run.

[PaceAdvantage]

Tomorrows weather forecast says much less wind tomorrow but just as cold. I hope they give tomorrow a shot. Today's gusts could reach 27 MPH, so it is best they don't run.Actually, gusts today will be close to 50mph...they are already up to 28mph and it isn't even 10am yet...

No way they were running today...not this year or any year past....tomorrow will be below freezing with gusts over 25mph...good chance they cancel tomorrow too.

[Redboard]

Since Saturday's looking to be in the high 30's-40's, let's take a look at Saturday's 6th race.

A Maiden Race with a decent field.

Thoughts PA Nation?
#9 China Rider has had a strange campaign so far, Starts off with two solid efforts in her career on the dirt at Belmont, where she comes in 5th then 2nd. Then, for some reason, they stretch her out and run her on the turf at the SPA, where she comes in 4th and the 3 that beat her, win their next race. So they bring her back to Bel sprinting on the dirt, where again she gives a solid effort coming in 2nd. You would have thought they would have learned their lesson but no, the run her at Woodbine on the flubber in a class upgrade where she bombs, duh!
Saturday looks pretty bleak with rain/snow mix.Probably won't run.

[EMD4ME]

Actually, gusts today will be close to 50mph...they are already up to 28mph and it isn't even 10am yet...

No way they were running today...not this year or any year past....tomorrow will be below freezing with gusts over 25mph...good chance they cancel tomorrow too.

Shoot. That sucks :( and I'm off tomorrow..shopping it will be. lol

[aaron]

I think the#9 will get bet and be the favorite. Could be okay, but something about this horse does mot sit right with me. The outside post doesn't help at a short price.
I like the# 10 stretching out and his last race may have been better than it looks on paper. Also,the post hurts.
#5 looks like he might improve and will probably like the distance.
Of the inside horses,I would be a little interested in the #3 who is eligible to improve off his first race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Shoot. That sucks :( and I'm off tomorrow..shopping it will be. lolYou never know what the weather might bring, so if it isn't as windy as predicted, they may run...who knows...we shall see tomorrow.

[arw629]

I think the#9 will get bet and be the favorite. Could be okay, but something about this horse does mot sit right with me. The outside post doesn't help at a short price.
I like the# 10 stretching out and his last race may have been better than it looks on paper. Also,the post hurts.
#5 looks like he might improve and will probably like the distance.
Of the inside horses,I would be a little interested in the #3 who is eligible to improve off his first race.

I strongly disagree that this one goes favorite...Franco has been riding first up for Canizzo and the fact that Maragh isn't riding back after the stakes debacle are both big negatives. I'm not saying she can't win but there are red flags and she's had her chances. I feel strongly that Lockdown goes favored here around a lukewarm 5-2

[CincyHorseplayer]

Shoot. That sucks :( and I'm off tomorrow..shopping it will be. lol

It's 17 degrees for a high here in Cincinnati and this cold front has been moving eastward. Will be in the 40's in 2 days though!

[cj]

It's 17 degrees for a high here in Cincinnati and this cold front has been moving eastward. Will be in the 40's in 2 days though!

Cold as hell in Oklahoma too, imagine it is heading that way too.

[NorCalGreg]

You eastern panty-waists cancel for anything--that's the REAL problem with horse racing.

I'm freezing my @** off here in California...it's getting down to 60 degrees with ....I believe I detect a ripple of a cool breeze....brrrrrrrr.

No sir----we don't cancel for nuthin' :D

[aaron]

I strongly disagree that this one goes favorite...Franco has been riding first up for Canizzo and the fact that Maragh isn't riding back after the stakes debacle are both big negatives. I'm not saying she can't win but there are red flags and she's had her chances. I feel strongly that Lockdown goes favored here around a lukewarm 5-2
Good call Lockdown is the ML favorite at 5/2.

[Tom]

You eastern panty-waists cancel for anything--that's the REAL problem with horse racing.

I'm freezing my @** off here in California...it's getting down to 60 degrees with ....I believe I detect a ripple of a cool breeze....brrrrrrrr.

No sir----we don't cancel for nuthin' :D

It's going to be 60 here for the next two weeks.
6 Friday, 6 Saturday, 6 Sunday.....brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

[arw629]

Good call Lockdown is the ML favorite at 5/2.
I just looked at the morning lines and I thought it was pretty solid other than My Golden Rose who i think will be much shorter than her 10-1 morning line ...I'm thinking 9-2 or 5-1 range....but the more I look at this race the more I like Lockdown because she doesn't have to improve much if at all to win here...Pletcher has a speed who quit very early and a closer who couldn't get the job done at Parx...China Rider has had her chances and seems to be going in the wrong direction....Devine Union will struggle making a winning trip from the 10 post ....Storm Cry and Double Cast would be shockers....the "other" Nevin out of Bodemeister is interesting and I wouldn't fault someone for taking a shot here but the works are slow and they got the better rider to ride My Golden Rose who I think will run better at this distance--not to mention the Nevin barn is hot lately and Manny has ridden a few winners for the connections... ..Finally I thought High End Lady would be a logical upsetter for the same reason I thibj My Golden Rose will be bet but I don't think she is as fast as My Golden Rose and will be a bigger price ...Dutrow does have good numbers second out and stretching out.... The 2 I am most interested in other than Lockdown are 1 and 4....

5-1-4-8 for me and for purpose of this thread going with :5: Lockdown

[EMD4ME]

I'd love to see a track with a dome in the USA. No cancellations.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'd love to see a track with a dome in the USA. No cancellations.

:lol:

A one mile oval dome!

Take the birds advice EMD=fly south for the winter. I do. I go where there is turf racing but overall better winter betting product IMO.

[RunForTheRoses]

You eastern panty-waists cancel for anything--that's the REAL problem with horse racing.

I'm freezing my @** off here in California...it's getting down to 60 degrees with ....I believe I detect a ripple of a cool breeze....brrrrrrrr.

No sir----we don't cancel for nuthin' :D

Uhh isn't Portland in the west? I don't see much pioneer spirit here:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/people-abandon-cars-portland-ore-1-3-snow-article-1.2912092

[EMD4ME]

Uhh isn't Portland in the west? I don't see much pioneer spirit here:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/people-abandon-cars-portland-ore-1-3-snow-article-1.2912092

Those people quit just like the cheap need the leaders at PM do, so readily :lol:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Easy. I make sure I study harder and harder. Especially if the streak passes 2 days.

I think all of you are too emotional . In order to be involved in this game. You need ice water in your veins.

I don't want ice water in my veins.

Pretty sure I'd be wearing a toe tag if I did.

[EMD4ME]

I don't want ice water in my veins.

Pretty sure I'd be wearing a toe tag if I did.


:D :D :D

Figure of speech pal. Figure of speech. From the ol wrastlin days and otherwise.

[EasyGoer89]

:D :D :D

Figure of speech pal. Figure of speech. From the ol wrastlin days and otherwise.

weather channel reporting ozone park ny 26/28 degrees with 12 mph wins and sunny for friday, you think they'll race tomorrow or is this too much to ask?

[EMD4ME]

weather channel reporting ozone park ny 26/28 degrees with 12 mph wins and sunny for friday, you think they'll race tomorrow or is this too much to ask?

Toss up. Today, was BRUTALLY COLD. I saw things flying sideways on the streets. BAD.....

As PA said, even in the 70's, they would've cancelled.

I saw a wind advisory until 6 am posted. I would say, NO, they don't run but I would be pleasantly surprised if they do.

I'm studying for SAT. Although I am scared for Sat too. It will snow Friday night into Sat and then the temp will hit the 40's for SAT. I've seen the inner track cancel on days where, IT'S TOO WARM, too quick as the track didn't thaw out properly.

In other words, I have no clue :lol:

[EasyGoer89]

Toss up. Today, was BRUTALLY COLD. I saw things flying sideways on the streets. BAD.....

As PA said, even in the 70's, they would've cancelled.

I saw a wind advisory until 6 am posted. I would say, NO, they don't run but I would be pleasantly surprised if they do.

I'm studying for SAT. Although I am scared for Sat too. It will snow Friday night into Sat and then the temp will hit the 40's for SAT. I've seen the inner track cancel on days where, IT'S TOO WARM, too quick as the track didn't thaw out properly.

In other words, I have no clue :lol:

Thanks.

[Robert Fischer]

1 rose - worth a look on replay. Will have to watch pre race, gate etc.. try to appraise the horseflesh. There is some potential for value.

3 - sumaya - i really like the crash and burn pace model. I hate that she's 5/1 ML. I don't like that she's Pletcher. Worth a replay view. How game was she? Proper lead? Gut feeling says this was a big waste of money and not much horse.

4 - Tony D - Trainer has seemingly been a money burner. Worth a replay view. PPs and gut says this will be a toss, but keep an open mind.

5- Jose Ortiz - Favorite, appears to have done some running on PPs. How slow did that race fin? How badly did it fall apart? Watch race compare to the 10, look at chart.

6 - Nevin FTS - Must Use unless you fall in love with the 5 or 10.

8 - Repole - at least watch his Philly race all the way through. May have been a slow paced race. Probably too cheap, but keep an open mind.

10 - Chad - Favorite, appears to have done some running on PPs. How slow did that race fin? How badly did it fall apart? Watch race compare to the 5, look at chart.

[ReplayRandall]

I find it interesting that Gallardo flies up to AQU from GP, having 6 mounts on Sat, and 5 on Sun......:2:War Story-M/L 10-1 must be live in Race#8. Added note on Antonio: Stays at GP to ride only ONE mount on Fri, rather than skip it and have a free day before the weekend action at AQU-Inner.....Let's see if he rides on Fri at GP race#5- :7:Golden Point M/L 4-1, or spins the mount to catch an early flight to NY.

[cj]

I find it interesting that Gallardo flies up to AQU from GP, having 6 mounts on Sat, and 5 on Sun......:2:War Story-M/L 10-1 must be live in Race#8. Added note on Antonio: Stays at GP to ride only ONE mount on Fri, rather than skip it and have a free day before the weekend action at AQU-Inner.....Let's see if he rides on Fri at GP race#5- :7:Golden Point M/L 4-1, or spins the mount to catch an early flight to NY.

War Story is one tough hombre, would love to see him take that race.

[EMD4ME]

Sat Dec 17th, 2016 Race 6 Breakdown

1) My Golden Rose-wasn't in love with 1st start. Broke very clean, while 3 others were not. 3 back from the gate encouraged, then 6 back encouraged in nice inside spot off 2 very live FTS who were far ahead. Was outmoved by 2 runners in solid early part of race and then was caught for 3rd late by a bomb FTS. Did have solid action throughout. Changed leads well but was traffic free, didn't each much dirt (but that may not be an issue as route kickback is less forceful VS sprint kickback) and was outmoved by 3 horses in various parts of the race.

Tough part to swallow if you don't wager on this horse-Michelle Nevin is 3/13 with 2nd time starters stretching out from Sprint to Route on Dirt AND 11/34 with horses making their first dirt route overall ($4.73 ROI-I know ROI means nothing to 97% of PA posters :lol: ). Nevin is 8 for her LAST 16 overall. ON DUTROW TYPE FIRE !

Dam's kids are 6/23 with 83 Beyer Peak in Dirt Sprints BUT just 0/4 with a 61 Beyer peak in Dirt Routes. I always look at the sires of dam's kids and of note, this dam's 1 child was sired to Giacomo BUT that horse did better sprinting VS routing. I am concerned about the route with this runner as well, especially with her first out run. 10/1 ML

2) Double Cast-Clockers thought she had Turf Action early in her career. Been terrible on dirt, PASS.

3) Spirit of the dawn-Performed in the "performance part" of the race in her first start. (Very Good 1st quarter). Broke a hair inward, 1/2 back of gate leader (good gate speed) and was encouraged to get even and get a short lead. Then was "running" (not rating or jogging) for the most part in part of a 4 horse speed wall that set up the pocket and 2nd pocket winners (winner came back to lose in 2 stakes, 1 of them at a very short price). Can excuse that 1st effort as was fried a bit.

Is a half to a 7/27 Dirt Sprinter who made $450K plus BUT was just 0/7 routing with just $31,840 made routing.

Didn't see much size to this filly. The route concerns me visually. Will be the pace setter (barring a unique gate break with bumping, long load, chaos etc.). I will say, AND IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL after 1 race (especially with the rail post) but she (25% chance) could have a tendency (all tendencies start with 1) to break inward. That reduces the chance of the 1 horse.

Excellent WORKOUTS FOR 2nd start.

4) High End Lady-3rd foal from dam, 2 other children are not that classy. Kids 1/4 Dirt Routing (1 Dirt Route winning foal was by Lemon Drop Kid) with just a 49 beyer peak. 2 kids were mostly "unclassy".

Wasn't totally clued in as starter had to straighten her in gate (as field dispatched). Not much speed anyway. Ate a bit of kickback early but still had such little speed, not much kickback (fell too far behind nearest inside horse). Out of it in best part of race. Angled out into the slowest part of race, sucked up, going up and down a bit. Did not like gallop out to the right after wire.

5) Lockdown- Kids are 2/7 sprinting, 77B peak and $54,000 earned. BUT............... Kids are 8/15, $2,702,000 earned ROUTING on Dirt. (103B peak). The same sire and dam have 2 kids, 1 of which is Close Hatches. Also trained by Bill Mott...... Close Hatches obviously was best routing. Even the weaker of the 2 full siblings developed and ran his best race, ROUTING.

Was out clean in clear, not much kickback in debut, calmly stalking average pace in clear, forced way down to 2 path for far turn run, angled back out lane. Changed leads well, lugged in a bit and was just able to hold on to 2nd over runner who was uncomfortable and rank for at least 3/8. galloped out very good and in front as expected with this pedigree. Should improve in 2nd start. Especially at 8 1/2 F.

6) Done and Dusted- Nevin great in 1st starts at a route with runners but just 1/3 with FTS on Dirt as FTS. Not a common move for her. She is 8 for her last 16 OVERALL (See #1). Bred for Route Speed on the sire side. Dam had speed as well. Won in 1st dirt start (shipping from outside the US with an 83 Beyer at the FG) Kids are 10/59 but mostly Turf as the kids have 7 wins in 26 starts on Turf. Kids are 0/2 in Dirt Routes.

I would use this horse in pick 4's as a "B" type but I project this horse as a speed type who will have to deal with the fast Pletcher horse in gate #3, so tough to endorse as top pick, unless the 3 scratches.

7) Storm Cry- Kids are 1/24, that win Dirt Routing (By Distorded Humor). (82 Beyer peak, for kids Dirt Routing).

Was set up diagonally in gate for 1st start (on Turf). Not the proper placement. Was obviously off a beat slow. Moved up around foes with nice natural early speed. rated professionally 2 wide on the backstretch BUT was green with leads in the latter portion of the backstretch run. Using hard to keep up from the 1/2. Did not exhibit high turf leg action. Off replay, I don't see a huge turf hoof but can't be sure of that unless I'm in the paddock. Have the feeling this one might be a pace presence (like the 3 and 6) and tire in the last 1/2. At least in this stage of her life.

8) Thirstforthecup-Decent 1st out run, where she showed rally and decent action from the 5/16 (geared down from the 1/16) was followed up by a route that kind of bothers me.... That PARX race, to me, is THE definition of dressed up. Was not out quick from the outside post BUT, jock made AN AWESOME move to tuck immediately to the rail AND as many other jocks floated wide into the Clubhouse turn in a SLOW 1st quarter, this filly settled into a perfect pocket. The eventual winner, fought off 2 different mid races challenges to win while this filly sat chilly watching from the inside till the lane. Fractions were slow to 3/4 and the 4th quarter was solid. Yes, she finished solidly in the 4th quarter but she was outkicked by 2 blah runners in the 4th quarter, 1 of which was used almost the entire last 3/4's. She exhibited stamina, can be used on the bottom of supers, but is not for me.

9) China Ryder-Dam was best dirt sprinting (and rallying). Has the same look. Kids did well in almost every category but dirt routing. WO run not impressive. Was on wrong lead from gate till clubhouse turn. That worries me as in routes, you want a horse, especially young ones to have energy late. 2 back sprint was solid but was ZERO match for winner who totally outkicked her in Very Good last Q. Had solid trip chasing from a loose pocket. I keyed her under a David Donk 1ster I liked back in the spring at Belmont (off of her very good gallop out in her 1st start). Solid horse but not a horse I want to bet to win, especially in her 1st dirt route. B type in Pick 4's. Using under in sups, ex, tri but not my top selection. Regardless of any value.

10) Devine Union-Dam's kids 4/17 Dirt Sprinting and 0/4 Dirt Routing but this gal from Union Rags, looks to be a better router. Clicked from 3/1 to 5/2 in Spa debut, SHOCKER :D as was a Chad Brown FTS at the SPA. A bit bigger, so I could see why the 7F debut decision was made. Nice looking filly. Was out clean, hustled and showed the ability to FIND the pocket on the backstretch of the spa (Big difference between earning/finding a pocket VS. being given one). Came up the rail and then simply looked to be a "short" horse on energy in the lane. Quite confusing for a Chad Brown horse. However, when I watched her 2nd start, I saw talent and a different filly. I watched that race, thinking Lockdown would be better. My eye and gut kept going back to this filly. She was out well, immediately ate kickback from the bell, looked to be uncomfortable and rank for over 3/8's. She was jammed into the rail by the rider of Lockdown, ran again with the emergency brakes BUT then when they hit the lane, her talent showed. She came on better than Lockdown and finished better than Lockdown. When a horse is rank/uncomfortable for so long (3/8), you can excuse them spitting the bit out. She didn't AND ran home better. She galloped out solid and will like the seperation ( I see the 3, 6, 7 and 1 creating some seperation early-especially if the 3 is the rabbit for the dressed up 8 horse).

To me, this is a complete 2 horse race. 5 10 , 10 5. They will pick up the pieces at the 3/8 and 1 of them will win, IMHO. Could be a cold exacta.

Trips will decide this one, IMHO. PP 5 VS PP 10 is a big difference on the inner.....

In the pick 4, Pick 6 and rolling P3's, the 2 chalks are my A's. 5&10.

I have a push on the 5.



However, this is a pick the winner thread. After a ton of going back and forth, I will put aside the "push" and go with what I saw in their last race and select the 10. My fear is the 5 needed her first and will improve but I also think Devine needed her last for experience and she will improve as well.

10-5-rest I don't like. Cold exacta box 10 5.

[NorCalGreg]

Uhh isn't Portland in the west? I don't see much pioneer spirit here:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/people-abandon-cars-portland-ore-1-3-snow-article-1.2912092

I'd have to go off-topic to explain why the "pioneers" haven't handed the country over....so I'll stay on subject.

That may one day come to be.....several Mega-Racing Domed Centers located in the major racing regions in the US, complete with air conditioned training facilities, shopping centers, hotels, big screens, etc. In other words---a destination resort.

Only problem I see with Racing joining the new modern world is---they can't even get together on California fair racing. This would require a very singular, Powerful Governing Leadership Body that doesn't exist, and maybe never will... until it's far too late.

[ReplayRandall]

Sat Dec 17th, 2016 Race 6 Breakdown
:10:Devine Union- Was out clean, hustled and showed the ability to FIND the pocket on the backstretch of the spa (Big difference between earning/finding a pocket VS. being given one).

When a horse is rank/uncomfortable for so long (3/8), you can excuse them spitting the bit out. She didn't AND ran home better.

This focused analysis, is why those who watch replays CORRECTLY, can succeed in this game.....No crunching of numbers required....Nice summary, EMD...:ThmbUp:

[no breathalyzer]

This focused analysis, is why those who watch replays CORRECTLY, can succeed in this game.....No crunching of numbers required....Nice summary, EMD...:ThmbUp:

I dido that.. nice write up EMD4ME...

[UnionRags]

:10:

[lamboguy]

I dido that.. nice write up EMD4ME...it was a scary great write up. i have never seen anyone break a race down better from top to bottom than this guy. he makes us all look like we are in the minor leagues compared to him and you can understand his write up.

[no breathalyzer]

it was a scary great write up. i have never seen anyone break a race down better from top to bottom than this guy. he makes us all look like we are in the minor leagues compared to him and you can understand his write up.

:ThmbUp: I have to admit i was impressed

[Track Phantom]

I qualify a public handicapper the following ways:
* What kind of supporting detail do they back their selections with.
* How often do they "tout" low prices
* How often do they identify live priced runners somewhere in their top 3 or 4 selections
* How often do they fade the right low priced favorites

Clearly the rationale for their selections is what gets my attention, not the actual selections themselves. I believe if a public handicapper can give their audience a nugget or two in each race that isn't patently obvious they bring value (i.e. trainer wins 38% with this rider with a debut maiden claimer for this ownership or track was favoring the outside part of the track in this horse's last race and he was stuck on the rail the entire way, etc).

In addition, I would ask this: What is more valuable to someone getting a public handicapper's info? A 7-5 shot selected on top that wins or a 16-1 shot selected on top that runs 2nd? Many handicappers, Andy included, don't get enough credit for identifying those longer prices that hit the board.

Andy has the right balance of picking winners and offering professional, detailed rationale to back up his opinions. He's made mention of things I've missed that helped me even though the horse wasn't in the top 2 or 3 of his selections. It's on the person listening to glean the right things from the handicapper. If they're a good 'capper, you should take away some things of value to take into battle.

[Track Phantom]

Sat Dec 17th, 2016 Race 6 Breakdown

1) My Golden Rose-wasn't ...

4) High End Lady-3rd foal from dam, 2 other children are not that classy. Kids 1/4 Dirt Routing (1 Dirt Route winning foal was by Lemon Drop Kid) with just a 49 beyer peak. 2 kids were mostly "unclassy".

Wasn't totally clued in as starter had to straighten her in gate (as field dispatched). Not much speed anyway. Ate a bit of kickback early but still had such little speed, not much kickback (fell too far behind nearest inside horse). Out of it in best part of race. Angled out into the slowest part of race, sucked up, going up and down a bit. Did not like gallop out to the right after wire....

However, this is a pick the winner thread. After a ton of going back and forth, I will put aside the "push" and go with what I saw in their last race and select the 10. My fear is the 5 needed her first and will improve but I also think Devine needed her last for experience and she will improve as well.

10-5-rest I don't like. Cold exacta box 10 5.

I don't really have a solid lean in this race but think #4 HIGH END LADY is worth considering.

Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 33% (8 for 24) with 2nd timers in a MSW going sprint to route on the dirt. Of those 8 winners, only two of them had hit the board in their debut (and one that did hit the board, ran 3rd beaten 12 lengths at 3-5). Also interesting is that 5 of those 8 winners were 5-1 or higher in their debut. Like this one, those runners weren't meant to fire sprinting in the debut.

The dam is a half sister to QUEENIE BELLE, who won 6 of 22 for 605k. She was 4 for 11 routing and won a few graded stakes races in So. Cal.

Dutrow doesn't use Cancel much (just 1 for 17 with him) so that is discouraging. And it's not like this one has been burning up the training track, also discouraging.

Overall, don't care much for the race as I think it will end up being chalky. But, I would check the betting on #4 HIGH END LADY to see if she's more well-meant in this spot. I'd consider her if she appears well on the track in conjunction with some tote action.

[NorCalGreg]

A thousand word diatribe to end up with the obvious favorite in a maiden race, ....wouldn't an astute bettor just pass?

The :1: MY GOLDEN ROSE stands out for a few reasons--price being one.

-switch to Franco
-top trainer Michelle Nevin
-throwing a profit 2yo's
-profit w/sprint-route
-huge profit first route

At 10-1 ML risk/value appears much greater here than with either of the short prices.....--small exacta reverse w// :8: THIRST FOR THE CUP 6-1

Good luck with that EMD. Oh... and No Breathalyzer...I'd "Dido" too :D

[EMD4ME]

A thousand word diatribe to end up with the obvious favorite in a maiden race, ....wouldn't an astute bettor just pass?

The :1: MY GOLDEN ROSE stands out for a few reasons--price being one.

-switch to Franco
-top trainer Michelle Nevin
-throwing a profit 2yo's
-profit w/sprint-route
-huge profit first route

At 10-1 ML risk/value appears much greater here than with either of the short prices.....--small exacta reverse w// :8: THIRST FOR THE CUP 6-1

Good luck with that EMD. Oh... and No Breathalyzer...I'd "Dido" too :D

Big trick with picks is knowing when to go with the chalk and when to bet against...

Biggest mistake by players is "thinking" they like or dislike a horse. I like to "know" I like/dislike a horse.

But you and I are different pal. You like having a PC do your thinking...

I like to do all the subtle and obvious information gathering and then let the most powerful tool man has, their brain, do the processing and evaluating .

To each his own :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

I don't really have a solid lean in this race but think #4 HIGH END LADY is worth considering.

Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 33% (8 for 24) with 2nd timers in a MSW going sprint to route on the dirt. Of those 8 winners, only two of them had hit the board in their debut (and one that did hit the board, ran 3rd beaten 12 lengths at 3-5). Also interesting is that 5 of those 8 winners were 5-1 or higher in their debut. Like this one, those runners weren't meant to fire sprinting in the debut.

The dam is a half sister to QUEENIE BELLE, who won 6 of 22 for 605k. She was 4 for 11 routing and won a few graded stakes races in So. Cal.

Dutrow doesn't use Cancel much (just 1 for 17 with him) so that is discouraging. And it's not like this one has been burning up the training track, also discouraging.

Overall, don't care much for the race as I think it will end up being chalky. But, I would check the betting on #4 HIGH END LADY to see if she's more well-meant in this spot. I'd consider her if she appears well on the track in conjunction with some tote action.

I can appreciate that. Besides what I saw, I simply don't think Anthony Dutrow of 2016 is the AD of old.

This is a great game we all love!

[EMD4ME]

I qualify a public handicapper the following ways:
* What kind of supporting detail do they back their selections with.
* How often do they "tout" low prices
* How often do they identify live priced runners somewhere in their top 3 or 4 selections
* How often do they fade the right low priced favorites

Clearly the rationale for their selections is what gets my attention, not the actual selections themselves. I believe if a public handicapper can give their audience a nugget or two in each race that isn't patently obvious they bring value (i.e. trainer wins 38% with this rider with a debut maiden claimer for this ownership or track was favoring the outside part of the track in this horse's last race and he was stuck on the rail the entire way, etc).

In addition, I would ask this: What is more valuable to someone getting a public handicapper's info? A 7-5 shot selected on top that wins or a 16-1 shot selected on top that runs 2nd? Many handicappers, Andy included, don't get enough credit for identifying those longer prices that hit the board.

Andy has the right balance of picking winners and offering professional, detailed rationale to back up his opinions. He's made mention of things I've missed that helped me even though the horse wasn't in the top 2 or 3 of his selections. It's on the person listening to glean the right things from the handicapper. If they're a good 'capper, you should take away some things of value to take into battle.

I know NCG doesn't approve of this :lol: but Ditto !

Well said !

[EMD4ME]

Thankfully the letter L isn't NB's favorite letter.

Because if he threw an L in there , we'd have a problem ! :lol: :lol:

[EMD4ME]

Replay Randall, Lamboguy, No Breathalyzer, thanks. It really wasn't anything special...

Just basic information gathering. I just made time to post it.

Good racing luck out there guys!

[NorCalGreg]

Thankfully the letter L isn't NB's favorite letter.

Because if he threw an L in there , we'd have a problem ! :lol: :lol:


LOL.....am I the only one that knows DIDO..(die-dough)...the singer? She sang "Here with me" ..."White Flag" ...Eminem sampled another of her tunes

There's a whole life out there away from those racing forms :lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

LOL.....am I the only one that knows DIDO..(die-dough)...the singer? She sang "Here with me" ..."White Flag" ...Eminem sampled another of her tunes

There's a whole life out there away from those racing forms :lol:

Yeah I knew that and thought your comment was pretty funny! I haven't heard the term "Ditto" used regularly since I was in 3rd grade by my teachers in 1982! :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah I knew that and thought your comment was pretty funny! I haven't heard the term "Ditto" used regularly since I was in 3rd grade by my teachers in 1982! :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs

Yeah..I like that. I forgot it's Six AM here...everyone in the house is still sleeping and I'm playing "White Flag" @ 30 decibels

[classhandicapper]

I don't see much of a betting opportunity in that 6th race.

The obvious horses (#5 and #10) don't look flawed in any obvious way to me and figure to improve. The problem being that everyone else knows that. Out of the two, the #5 is probably more likely, but will be favored.

The only angle I can see is on #3. Spirit of Dawn was on the lead in a race that kind of fell apart and is moving into a race without a lot of speed. I like when a horse moves from an unfavorable race flow to a potentially favorable race flow (and vice versa to play against).

Pletcher is also good 2nd time out with a stretch out and she's been working regularly.

The negatives are obvious. She tired badly first out and the female side and her siblings look kind of sprinty. But there are other risks. There's a FTS in there that might show speed (never can tell), a couple of "blinkers on" horses that could show more speed, and a couple of other 2nd time starters that could show more speed on the stretch out.

If I was going to get involved in multi race bets I'd include her, but I can't see her as much of a win or exacta play because she looks like an all or nothing to me. She's either going to jump up and improve, shake loose, and run big or she's more of a sprinter/will get challenged and is going to get swamped. The 5-1 morning line is not screaming value anyway.

About the only exception would be if the track was speed favoring and the riders hadn't already started adjusting by riding more aggressively. Then I might take a stab to win hoping she'd use her superior speed and the track would carry her even if she's a better sprinter.

After you look at a race, a lot of the time you have to conclude that you don't know anything that everyone doesn't know also and turn the page. Absent a significant bias, this race doesn't sing to me.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yeah..I like that. I forgot it's Six AM here...everyone in the house is still sleeping and I'm playing "White Flag" @ 30 decibels

Here's my AM handicapping coffee song. This is apropos for em NCG!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xezd5EDZBhQ

[NorCalGreg]

Are they racing today at Aqueduct or what?

[classhandicapper]

I don't see much of a betting opportunity in that 6th race.

The obvious horses (#5 and #10) don't look flawed in any obvious way to me and figure to improve. The problem being that everyone else knows that. Out of the two, the #5 is probably more likely, but will be favored.

The only angle I can see is on #3. Spirit of Dawn was on the lead in a race that kind of fell apart and is moving into a race without a lot of speed. I like when a horse moves from an unfavorable race flow to a potentially favorable race flow (and vice versa to play against).

Pletcher is also good 2nd time out with a stretch out and she's been working regularly.

The negatives are obvious. She tired badly first out and the female side and her siblings look kind of sprinty. But there are other risks. There's a FTS in there that might show speed (never can tell), a couple of "blinkers on" horses that could show more speed, and a couple of other 2nd time starters that could show more speed on the stretch out.

If I was going to get involved in multi race bets I'd include her, but I can't see her as much of a win or exacta play because she looks like an all or nothing to me. She's either going to jump up and improve, shake loose, and run big or she's more of a sprinter/will get challenged and is going to get swamped. The 5-1 morning line is not screaming value anyway.

About the only exception would be if the track was speed favoring and the riders hadn't already started adjusting by riding more aggressively. Then I might take a stab to win hoping she'd use her superior speed and the track would carry her even if she's a better sprinter.

After you look at a race, a lot of the time you have to conclude that you don't know anything that everyone doesn't know also and turn the page. Absent a significant bias, this race doesn't sing to me.

Out of the second time starters, I might throw High End Lady into the mix also. Like Pletcher, Dutrow is pretty good on the stretch out 2nd time also. She'll have to improve quite a big given that I think so many others in the race (including the favorites) are eligible to move forward, but even if she doesn't win, at 12-1 in the ML maybe she can be part of the exotics.

[Robert Fischer]

these horses stink

:10::6::9::1::5:


10= A-
6,9,1,5 = B
3,8 = C

[EMD4ME]

TLG on fire in this 20 degree weather!

3rd win today!

[EMD4ME]

TLG Picks Friday Dec 16th, 2016

Race 1 1A - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 2 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4 5 - 4 - 3 - 9
Race 5 1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 6 7 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 10
Race 7 2 - 1A - 8 - 5
Race 8 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 9 8 - 6 - 4 - 2