Saratoga LATE Pick 5

[EMD4ME]

NYRA will have a late PICK 5 on Friday, Sat, Sun and Monday (Sep 2-5).

BUT no late pick 5 at the Belmont meet.

Is this a test to see if the Pick 6 is cannibalized by a 2nd pick 5?

If not, then maybe have 2 in the future?

[thespaah]

NYRA will have a late PICK 5 on Friday, Sat, Sun and Monday (Sep 2-5).

BUT no late pick 5 at the Belmont meet.

Is this a test to see if the Pick 6 is cannibalized by a 2nd pick 5?

If not, then maybe have 2 in the future?
The P5 is a more popular wager.
Here are this week's numbers
8/24....P5 pool, $383k...P6 pool $68K
8/25....P5 pool, $580k...P6 pool $165k
8/26....P5 pool, $403k...P6 pool $113k
8/27....P5 pool, $709k...P6 pool $773k....this was an all grade 1 race pick 6
8/28....P5 pool, $461k...P6 pool $113k
I think the pick 6 will be cannibalized. In fact, I the late P5 will cannibalize the early P5. There is only so much money to go around.
Of course this is merely my opinion. I could be wrong.

[the little guy]

NYRA will have a late PICK 5 on Friday, Sat, Sun and Monday (Sep 2-5).

BUT no late pick 5 at the Belmont meet.

Is this a test to see if the Pick 6 is cannibalized by a 2nd pick 5?

If not, then maybe have 2 in the future?


You just kind of make it up as you go along.

Nobody said we were or weren't having one at Belmont. However, unless you are running at least ten races, you pretty much can't have two Pick-5s.

[EMD4ME]

You just kind of make it up as you go along.

Nobody said we were or weren't having one at Belmont. However, unless you are running at least ten races, you pretty much can't have two Pick-5s.

You're being too hard on me. No, I don't.


David Grening , Saratoga , 2016-08-28 - DRF Live Posted : 10hrs 22mins ago
Late pick-5 to be offered on final four days of Saratoga meet
There will be a late-pick 5 wager offered on the last five races at Saratoga over the final four days of the meet (Sept. 2-5). It will be known as the "NYRA Bets Late Pick-5."

The wager will have the same takeout rate (15 %) as the early pick-5 and will also be offered for a minimum of $0.50.

This is the first time NYRA is offering a late pick-5.

The pick-6, with a $2 minimum wager, will still be offered.

The late pick-5 will not be offered when the Belmont Park fall meet begins on Sept. 9.

[ronsmac]

You just kind of make it up as you go along.

Nobody said we were or weren't having one at Belmont. However, unless you are running at least ten races, you pretty much can't have two Pick-5s.He may have looked at the Nyra website which doesn't mention a late pick 5 when Belmont runs 10 or 11 races.

[the little guy]

You're being too hard on me. No, I don't.


David Grening , Saratoga , 2016-08-28 - DRF Live Posted : 10hrs 22mins ago
Late pick-5 to be offered on final four days of Saratoga meet
There will be a late-pick 5 wager offered on the last five races at Saratoga over the final four days of the meet (Sept. 2-5). It will be known as the "NYRA Bets Late Pick-5."

The wager will have the same takeout rate (15 %) as the early pick-5 and will also be offered for a minimum of $0.50.

This is the first time NYRA is offering a late pick-5.

The pick-6, with a $2 minimum wager, will still be offered.

The late pick-5 will not be offered when the Belmont Park fall meet begins on Sept. 9.

So because it won't be offered on 9/9 you assume that means the whole meet?

I have no idea what we may or may not be doing, but I am also not just making assumptions.

[the little guy]

He may have looked at the Nyra website which doesn't mention a late pick 5 when Belmont runs 10 or 11 races.

I hope not. I mean, I give him more credit than being that silly.

But hey, look at it this way, we are offering a second Pick-5 and people here instantly found things to complain about. Who says there's no joy in Mudville?

[EMD4ME]

I hope not. I mean, I give him more credit than being that silly.

But hey, look at it this way, we are offering a second Pick-5 and people here instantly found things to complain about. Who says there's no joy in Mudville?

Most of my handle is on the NYRA pick 5. I LOVE THE PICK 5 Andy. I HOPE there are 2 pick 5's.

I am not complaining. I created the thread, hoping to get you or someone to tell me more. In a POSITIVE WAY :)

I quoted Grening's report. It said it will not be offered at the fall meet.

Give me a break (literally, not as a figure of speech :) )

[the little guy]

Most of my handle is on the NYRA pick 5. I LOVE THE PICK 5 Andy. I HOPE there are 2 pick 5's.

I am not complaining. I created the thread, hoping to get you or someone to tell me more. In a POSITIVE WAY :)

I quoted Grening's report. It said it will not be offered at the fall meet.

Give me a break (literally, not as a figure of speech :) )

I thought it said it would not be offered when the meet begins on 9/9. How is that saying it won't be offered at any point during the meet?

I think we have a failure to communicate going on here:-)

You're very quick to react. Chill please.

[ronsmac]

I hope not. I mean, I give him more credit than being that silly.

But hey, look at it this way, we are offering a second Pick-5 and people here instantly found things to complain about. Who says there's no joy in Mudville?He sounded hopeful of a late p5 at Belmont in the future. Is that complaining?

[EMD4ME]

I thought it said it would not be offered when the meet begins on 9/9. How is that saying it won't be offered at any point during the meet?

I think we have a failure to communicate going on here:-)

You're very quick to react. Chill please.

Andy, I never got excited. No hard feelings. You know I'm a fan. No worries pal.

Was just trying to clear up what might've been perceived :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

He sounded hopeful of a late p5 at Belmont in the future. Is that complaining?

I am hopeful! Its the greatest bet in racing . I hope they make it happen.

[the little guy]

Andy, I never got excited. No hard feelings. You know I'm a fan. No worries pal.

Was just trying to clear up what might've been perceived :ThmbUp:

I'm just having fun with you.

[thaskalos]

Most of my handle is on the NYRA pick 5. I LOVE THE PICK 5 Andy. I HOPE there are 2 pick 5's.

I am not complaining. I created the thread, hoping to get you or someone to tell me more. In a POSITIVE WAY :)

I quoted Grening's report. It said it will not be offered at the fall meet.

Give me a break (literally, not as a figure of speech :) )

I don't understand. You feel confident enough about the 5 races to invest thousands on the pick-5 combination...but you don't make serious wagers on these races individually?

[EMD4ME]

I don't understand. You feel confident enough about the 5 races to invest thousands on the pick-5 combination...but you don't make serious wagers on these races individually?

Yes correct plus its the greatest value out there. Friday I played a $7 pick 5. 2x3x6x1x1. 3/5 5/2 7/1 3/5 3/5.

Parlay was $200. Paid $848

I couldn't separate the 2 chalks in race 1. Same in race 2 ( 3 chalks). Hated the chalks in race 3 but had no single horse to turn to. Found the last 2 winners to be near cinches but had no price.

If I bet each race, I lose the first 3 races probably. I couldve played a cold double in races 4&5 (I did as well for $200). Paid $8 bucks but the value was in the pick 5 as I played 36 combos ahead of the $8 double but got 100/1 instead of 36/1.

That's 1 example of a chalk sequence.

At Belmont. My only specific opinion in 1 recent sequence was in race 5. 9/5 shot. I couldve bet 1000 to win and get 2800.

I knew that races 1234 all had chaos possibilities and knew the chalk would lose at least 2 legs. Bet 1000 and hit a $96k pick 5. And that's with another chalk winning race 3.

If I bet each race individually, I probably lose 4/5 with my only winning ticket being a decent smash on the 9/5.

I leveraged my bankroll to buy the tickets that the public couldn't or wouldn't buy. 4 logical winners in races 1234 with my 9/5, paid $96k.

[thaskalos]

Yes correct plus its the greatest value out there. Friday I played a $7 pick 5. 2x3x6x1x1. 3/5 5/2 7/1 3/5 3/5.

Parlay was $200. Paid $848

I couldn't separate the 2 chalks in race 1. Same in race 2 ( 3 chalks). Hated the chalks in race 3 but had no single horse to turn to. Found the last 2 winners to be near cinches but had no price.

If I bet each race, I lose the first 3 races probably. I couldve played a cold double in races 4&5 (I did as well for $200). Paid $8 bucks but the value was in the pick 5 as I played 36 combos ahead of the $8 double but got 100/1 instead of 36/1.

That's 1 example of a chalk sequence.

At Belmont. My only specific opinion in 1 recent sequence was in race 5. 9/5 shot. I couldve bet 1000 to win and get 2800.

I knew that races 1234 all had chaos possibilities and knew the chalk would lose at least 2 legs. Bet 1000 and hit a $96k pick 5. And that's with another chalk winning race 3.

If I bet each race individually, I probably lose 4/5 with my only winning ticket being a decent smash on the 9/5.

I leveraged my bankroll to buy the tickets that the public couldn't or wouldn't buy. 4 logical winners in races 1234 with my 9/5, paid $96k.

Do you find that EVERY New York pick-5 is "playable"...or do you sometimes sit it out for the day, even though you have still done all the work?

[EMD4ME]

Do you find that EVERY New York pick-5 is "playable"...or do you sometimes sit it out for the day, even though you have still done all the work?

Absolutely! Some weeks its unplayable 3 out of 5 days. (Too chalky, every horse is unplayable in 2 or 3 races etc).

Today I kicked myself. Only had 1 opinion. Liked the 1&5 in race 4. Didn't / couldn't bank on prices in races 1235. So I played a small pick 5 just in case I was perfect. Bet the real money in the early pick 4.

I hit the pick 4 (paid 5000 or so) and missed the pick 5 because I didnt play it seriously. Paid 24k plus.

I've learned that you're either all in or out when it comes to the pick 5.

Today was 1 day (out of the last 3 months) where I half assed it (the pick 5 play) and regret it.

I didn't want to go 356 in race 1 and watch the 3/5 pig win and invest too much. And didn't want to single the 3 , who I hated (or single anyone else)

[thaskalos]

For some reason, I haven't yet warmed-up to the pick-5. But you might change my mind about it.

[EMD4ME]

For some reason, I haven't yet warmed-up to the pick-5. But you might change my mind about it.

Besides the value, here's what I love the most.

The prepared and well rounded will crush the 90% prepared and 90% well rounded.

Missing 1 nugget of info, will crush those guys.

Also, ticket construction is my strength. Others maybe not.

Most people look to hit the pick 5. I look to crush it if I am right 5 times.

The strategy all depends on the sequence.

[thaskalos]

Besides the value, here's what I love the most.

The prepared and well rounded will crush the 90% prepared and 90% well rounded.

Missing 1 nugget of info, will crush those guys.

Also, ticket construction is my strength. Others maybe not.

Most people look to hit the pick 5. I look to crush it if I am right 5 times.

The strategy all depends on the sequence.

My problem is that I almost never have a positive opinion about 5 consecutive races...and I hate to use the "scatter-gun" approach to cover an otherwise unappealing race. I have trained myself to try and crush the races that I really like...and to totally avoid the races that I can't get a grip on.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Absolutely! Some weeks its unplayable 3 out of 5 days. (Too chalky, every horse is unplayable in 2 or 3 races etc).

Today I kicked myself. Only had 1 opinion. Liked the 1&5 in race 4. Didn't / couldn't bank on prices in races 1235. So I played a small pick 5 just in case I was perfect. Bet the real money in the early pick 4.

I hit the pick 4 (paid 5000 or so) and missed the pick 5 because I didnt play it seriously. Paid 24k plus.

I've learned that you're either all in or out when it comes to the pick 5.

Today was 1 day (out of the last 3 months) where I half assed it (the pick 5 play) and regret it.

I didn't want to go 356 in race 1 and watch the 3/5 pig win and invest too much. And didn't want to single the 3 , who I hated (or single anyone else)


When you start posting your pick 4 and 5 tickets here so we can see i will believe you. Until then you are just a wannabe handicapper.

[EMD4ME]

When you start posting your pick 4 and 5 tickets here so we can see i will believe you. Until then you are just a wannabe handicapper.

Dear Dontellmeshowme,

See "greatest racetrack scores" thread. All the tickets I reference are right there.

Here's a glass of water. Dont want you choking to death now....

:cool:

[EMD4ME]

Post 21 is the 96k pick 5 I hit. Just under 24k for .50

Minus with holding. :)

Now bug off you miserable troll

[Donttellmeshowme]

Post 21 is the 96k pick 5 I hit. Just under 24k for .50

Minus with holding. :)

Now bug off you miserable troll



Any reason why you dont post the ticket after the first race goes off in the sequence?

[Donttellmeshowme]

Post 21 is the 96k pick 5 I hit. Just under 24k for .50

Minus with holding. :)

Now bug off you miserable troll



So you win 24K on a pick 5 and your the best handicapper around? When you show me your a consistent winner i will believe you and jump on board.

[EMD4ME]

So you win 24K on a pick 5 and your the best handicapper around? When you show me your a consistent winner i will believe you and jump on board.

I did that too.

You didn't see the post (my wagering statements) with approximately 400k bet and 500k returned. ?

What next? Do I need to show up at your house and give you some blood? I'm tired of the haters.

[EMD4ME]

Any reason why you dont post the ticket after the first race goes off in the sequence?

Yeah,

1) I'm too busy watching the pan and head on replays of the race prior then:

2) putting my detailed trip notes into my formulator.

3)I'm too busy ticket constructing cover pick 4's and crush job pick 4s.


But I have posted what I'm live with after a ticket starts. See the Emerald Downs 2016 thread. Just last week or so.

[Donttellmeshowme]

I did that too.

You didn't see the post (my wagering statements) with approximately 400k bet and 500k returned. ?

What next? Do I need to show up at your house and give you some blood? I'm tired of the haters.



Post after the race starts and you would have more credibility.

Hell i won $4500 Thursday but you dont see me jumping up and down like im the worlds greatest.

[EMD4ME]

My problem is that I almost never have a positive opinion about 5 consecutive races...and I hate to use the "scatter-gun" approach to cover an otherwise unappealing race. I have trained myself to try and crush the races that I really like...and to totally avoid the races that I can't get a grip on.

Sorry thaskalos I missed this post.

It depends on the sequence. I hate spreading when I don't think I can get prices.

Tomorrow , I'm passing. 1) I didn't do enough work but 2) I hate the 2 chalks in race 1 but they might win at short prices. I refuse to go all and get a 3/5. 3) other races just have 1 loser after the other in them (race 2).

Tomorrow is a pick 5 where you can overspend 2000 and 1) lose or 2) get back 300 bucks and cry

[thaskalos]

Post after the race starts and you would have more credibility.

Hell i won $4500 Thursday but you dont see me jumping up and down like im the worlds greatest.
Yes...but, what if you had won $100,000 last Thursday?

[EMD4ME]

Post after the race starts and you would have more credibility.

Hell i won $4500 Thursday but you dont see me jumping up and down like im the worlds greatest.

Why do you think I haven't posted in that thread recently? 4000 is nothing to post about.. that happens weekly for me.

I agree.

As far as posting after a sequence starts, Idk about that. I already prove more than I need to. I just dont have the time nor see the need to.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Sorry thaskalos I missed this post.

It depends on the sequence. I hate spreading when I don't think I can get prices.

Tomorrow , I'm passing. 1) I didn't do enough work but 2) I hate the 2 chalks in race 1 but they might win at short prices. I refuse to go all and get a 3/5. 3) other races just have 1 loser after the other in them (race 2).

Tomorrow is a pick 5 where you can overspend 2000 and 1) lose or 2) get back 300 bucks and cry



Saratoga?

[EMD4ME]

Saratoga?

Yup..passing.

[ReplayRandall]

Yes...but, what if you had won $100,000 last Thursday?

If he won a $100K, he wouldn't have to hide from the loan sharks anymore.....$4500 ain't enough, just gives him more time to safely pay the juice..:cool:

[EMD4ME]

Replay !!!!! Welcome aboard :) I feel honored being in the same thread as you and the thaskalos! Now all we need is delta to show up!

[KidCruz]

You just kind of make it up as you go along.

Nobody said we were or weren't having one at Belmont. However, unless you are running at least ten races, you pretty much can't have two Pick-5s.

Didn't you spend some time in Hallandale Beach this winter? GP cards two Pick 5's even on 8 race cards. Wednesday with 8 races they handled 50k early and 100k late. If you can draw that kind of a pool, I honestly don't see how anyone could have a problem with it.

[OTM Al]

Didn't you spend some time in Hallandale Beach this winter? GP cards two Pick 5's even on 8 race cards. Wednesday with 8 races they handled 50k early and 100k late. If you can draw that kind of a pool, I honestly don't see how anyone could have a problem with it.
It depends on what it does to other pools. These type of bets take a whole lot of money out of circulation for a big chunk of the card. Not a fan.

[DeltaLover]

Replay !!!!! Welcome aboard :) I feel honored being in the same thread as you and the thaskalos! Now all we need is delta to show up!

here i am emd!

[EMD4ME]

here i am emd!

Now the thread is complete! :ThmbUp:

[DeltaLover]

Now the thread is complete! :ThmbUp:

:)

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I am thrilled they are having a late pick 5. By far one of my favorite bets, and being back in Arizona now I dont have to run to the dog track at 9am to get my bets in. :)

[thespaah]

I don't understand. You feel confident enough about the 5 races to invest thousands on the pick-5 combination...but you don't make serious wagers on these races individually?
I do something similar. I spend a bunch of time handicapping the pick 5. make my wagers and just watch the races. I then start working on the rest of the card, or look at other tracks to find a potential score.
When I was up Saratoga last week. I made my P5 bets, then walked around, said hello to people there I knew and watched the races.
I was alive through the first three. Once my P5 was done, I worked a couple races. Hit one lost the other. Then created a P4 ticket. Done.

[bello]

I also like the p5.

But while in the experimental stage, how about $1 pick 6.

Would that help or hurt total handle. I personally have a $100 limit on horizontals.If I cannot make it work for that I will skip the sequence. That is occasionally going in for a buck and not two? ( I cannot bring myself to less than a dollar) But a buck pick 6 may keep some of us who do not get involved in syndicate play in p6 action.

[thespaah]

My problem is that I almost never have a positive opinion about 5 consecutive races...and I hate to use the "scatter-gun" approach to cover an otherwise unappealing race. I have trained myself to try and crush the races that I really like...and to totally avoid the races that I can't get a grip on.
I was the same way...An individual race handicapping mindset.
When going with horizontal wagers, i have to get out of that...and yes, sometimes there is a difficult to narrow down race in the sequence. And sometimes I have to hold my nose and bet several entries. Sucks.
I do not have the budget to make crush bets. I just try to hit the darned thing...
And P5 are loaded with value. Alabama day the P5 had not one single winner over 10.40...The P5 STILL paid over $6k for $2.....And that was with one 4/5 winner....The winners were
$9.10, $8.30, $8.60, $3.80 and $10.40....P5 paid $6,187.00 for $2

[thespaah]

Replay !!!!! Welcome aboard :) I feel honored being in the same thread as you and the thaskalos! Now all we need is delta to show up!
OOH OOH...PICK ME!!!!!!..... :lol:

[EMD4ME]

Normally, I would pass tomorrow's early pick 5 as I don't like the horses involved in the sequence BUT with a LATE pick 5 being added to tomorrow's menu, maybe I will play a pick 5 tomorrow.

Good job NYRA for listening!

[VigorsTheGrey]

Normally, I would pass tomorrow's early pick 5 as I don't like the horses involved in the sequence BUT with a LATE pick 5 being added to tomorrow's menu, maybe I will play a pick 5 tomorrow.

Good job NYRA for listening!

Just think if you posted your pick 5 here at PA and it won....you would be so popular...the coup might work to bring SRU back...

[classhandicapper]

I think adding more options for players is a very good idea, but I don't quite understand the popularity of these bets.

The advantage of exotics over the Win pool is the ability to combine multiple value oriented opinions onto 1 ticket, which typically results in greater value than Win alone. But for it to make sense, you need 2 or more value oriented opinions. Maybe some people find more frequent errors in the pools than I do, but I rarely find enough for a pick 5 to make much sense.

If I find multiple errors and they are in consecutive races, I don't get involved in Pick 3s, 4s, and 5s when I have no value oriented opinions in the other legs. I play a Double.

If my opinions are in 1st and 3rd, I might consider a pick 3, but I won't add a 4th or 5th leg.

For me to consider a Pick 5, I'd have to have value oriented opinions in the 1st and 5th leg and also think races 2-4 were decipherable enough that I wasn't at some kind of disadvantage. How often do things like that happen?

I think what really drives a lot of these wagers is a desire to be a hero and make a score and not that they actually offer consistently better wagering opportunities. People don't enjoy 30% winners at $7.00 as much as the occasional big score (even if they were in the hole a ton of money when it finally happened).

[EMD4ME]

Just think if you posted your pick 5 here at PA and it won....you would be so popular...the coup might work to bring SRU back...

Sounds possible but only after leg 1. Won't be today as I don't like the early pick 5 and I am not sure I want to play the late pick 5 yet. Maybe this weekend.

[EMD4ME]

I think adding more options for players is a very good idea, but I don't quite understand the popularity of these bets.

The advantage of exotics over the Win pool is the ability to combine multiple value oriented opinions onto 1 ticket, which typically results in greater value than Win alone. But for it to make sense, you need 2 or more value oriented opinions. Maybe some people find more frequent errors in the pools than I do, but I rarely find enough for a pick 5 to make much sense.

If I find multiple errors and they are in consecutive races, I don't get involved in Pick 3s, 4s, and 5s when I have no value oriented opinions in the other legs. I play a Double.

If my opinions are in 1st and 3rd, I might consider a pick 3, but I won't add a 4th or 5th leg.

For me to consider a Pick 5, I'd have to have value oriented opinions in the 1st and 5th leg and also think races 2-4 were decipherable enough that I wasn't at some kind of disadvantage. How often do things like that happen?

I think what really drives a lot of these wagers is a desire to be a hero and make a score and not that they actually offer consistently better wagering opportunities. People don't enjoy 30% winners at $7.00 as much as the occasional big score (even if they were in the hole a ton of money when it finally happened).

Honestly, after living the Pick 5, if they took it away, I'd seriously consider leaving the game. It is just the greatest bet in the game we know. If I took the time to list why, we'd be here reading till next month. I'll say the following to keep it short:

Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. I know mine. I hate to really like 2 horses in the same race. (assuming value with both). Do I play an exacta box, do the dynamics justify an exacta, which one will win etc. I find myself maybe breaking even or losing in those races as I may choose the wrong one of the 2 and when the other wins, it hurts.

Have you checked the payouts vs the parlay prices? That 5th leg is AMAZING.

It's not a Pick 5. It's a survive 5. Most bettors don't bet enough to Pick 5, so all you have to do is bet enough to survive 5. (all that within reason. You won't bet $4000 into a pick 5 just to cover all logical contenders, that's stupid. You have to take a stand somewhere). You are right, if you have a win bet in races 1 and 5 AND you don't have an opinion in races 234, it could or should be a pass. However, if you have an opinion in races 1 & 5 and believe the favorite will lose 1 or 2 of the remaining races, it's a great bet to bet single, spread, spread, spread, single.

Last weekend, August 26th, there was no way I was making a win bet or an exacta on Syndergaard or Bobby on Fleek. Used both.

Race 2, after intense workout study, trainer stats, breeding study, etc I landed on the 3 chalks. NO BALLSY OPINION. No Value but used all 3.

Race 3, hated the field. 7 horses, only knew the 6 had no shot (20/1 ML) and that I believed the favorites had a very good chance to lose. Used 6 of 7.

Race 4, singled the 3/5, didn't think this horse would be beat by the 3 turf runners running an off the turf race. Liking a 3/5 is not an exciting opinion.

Race 5, liked the 3/5 shot a lot. Again, no real sexy handicapping, just accepting that the 3/5 should win more than 65% of the time.

2 x 3 x 6 x 1 x 1.

The choice could've been to bet the cold R4 and R5 double. I did, for $200. Paid $8 and change.

Also took advantage of the pick 5 to play a $7 pick 5. 7 X 36=$252 (Small wager for me).

Paid $848 VS a parlay of near $340.

That is 1 chalky example of maximizing 2 chalky opinions into a decent return.

There was little risk of losing the $252. Race 1 was 100% between the 2 chalks. Race 3, the bomb had a 1-3% chance of winning. Race 2 was a bit of a risk but not really.

The risk was in return, as if a chalk won race 3, then the return would've probably been near the $200-$250 mark.

So If I would've taken the $252 and bet my chalk DD, I would've received the same money that I would've received if the chalk won race 3.

In this case, I got back $2940 instead of $1000.

I'm ok with that risk.

Why?

Because more often than not, especially at NYRA, you will be rewarded. It's hard for people to narrow down when you have the riding tactics/variance that these guys create.

Hope that makes sense, typing fast as I need to get back to today's card. Talk more soon :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Honestly, after living the Pick 5, if they took it away, I'd seriously consider leaving the game. It is just the greatest bet in the game we know. If I took the time to list why, we'd be here reading till next month. I'll say the following to keep it short:



I'm not going to argue with success. ;)

I think one of the issues with me is that I often put so much energy into handicapping a single race, I try to keep the betting as simple as possible.

If I like a horse I bet him to win.

If I think 2 horses are good value, I bet both to win and box them in the exacta.

If I hate the favorite but have no strong opinion, I spread around a little in the triple.

If I like horses in consecutive races I bet both to win and make a cold double.

I'm never out there fishing for a score just for the sake of making a score. It's too easy for me to make handicapping mistakes to compound it with betting mistakes.

[EMD4ME]

I'm not going to argue with success. ;)

I think one of the issues with me is that I often put so much energy into handicapping a single race, I try to keep the betting as simple as possible.

If I like a horse I bet him to win.

If I think 2 horses are good value, I bet both to win and box them in the exacta.

If I hate the favorite but have no strong opinion, I spread around a little in the triple.

If I like horses in consecutive races I bet both to win and make a cold double.

I'm never out there fishing for a score just for the sake of making a score. It's too easy for me to make handicapping mistakes to compound it with betting mistakes.

I hear you Class. I know my strengths and I know my weaknesses. I need to stay where I am strong, even at the cost of overbuying a ticket or spreading too much in some cases.

I too, keep things very simple sometimes to keep the bankroll moving. Vic smashed me for it but I have no problem taking my 2 safe selections of the day and playing a parlay to place with a heavy amount of money. I'll take $3.20 and $3.00 on a two race parlay every day from now till 2080. Why? Because if we could all bet $2 and collect $4.80 every day (with a good portion of our bankroll, we'd quit work).

Plus, the pick 5 can have some massive psychological swings. (Hit a $40 horse you love but lose a different leg :bang: ). You might still bet that horse to win but your mind runs to the money you spent on the pick 5 (that could've been bet to win).

One needs to have the psychological (crazy :D :D ) make up for the wager.

[EMD4ME]

Just think if you posted your pick 5 here at PA and it won....you would be so popular...the coup might work to bring SRU back...

I'll post pics if need be.

I did play a pick 5, as after I saw the scratches, I got interested.

Race 1: 14 were the A's 37 were covers

Race 2: 3810 are the A's. 2 is a solid B plus. 5 is a C. Played extra money on the 10 as he will be overbet.

Race 3: 1 is the A. ALL are the covers

Race 4: 12359 (spread to just get by this one). Small cover to 468.

Race 5: 2 is the A. 6 is a minor B. Played 1 ticket to the rest (minus Porvoo) just in case the 1st four legs run 14/10/1/12359.


On to the late pick 5, need to see if I will play that one.

[rsetup]

What's your ROI for pk5's?

[Robes]

You just kind of make it up as you go along.

Nobody said we were or weren't having one at Belmont. However, unless you are running at least ten races, you pretty much can't have two Pick-5s.

You don't need to run 10 races 2 have 2 pick-5s Gulfstream has 8 races on weekdays and they have 2 p_5s.

[EMD4ME]

What's your ROI for pk5's?

Rounded off, Wagered $250,000 in pick 5's this year. Collected $300,000.

1.20 ROI

[EMD4ME]

I'll post pics if need be.

I did play a pick 5, as after I saw the scratches, I got interested.

Race 1: 14 were the A's 37 were covers

Race 2: 3810 are the A's. 2 is a solid B plus. 5 is a C. Played extra money on the 10 as he will be overbet.

Race 3: 1 is the A. ALL are the covers

Race 4: 12359 (spread to just get by this one). Small cover to 468.

Race 5: 2 is the A. 6 is a minor B. Played 1 ticket to the rest (minus Porvoo) just in case the 1st four legs run 14/10/1/12359.


On to the late pick 5, need to see if I will play that one.


Bone crushing error. Marked 17 as the A's initially for race 3. Decided that I didn't want the 7 off of his kind of weak gallop out in his suck up sprint prep. Didn't even make him a B. Only a weak cover.

Oh well. Such is the game :) :bang:

[rsetup]

Rounded off, Wagered $250,000 in pick 5's this year. Collected $300,000.

1.20 ROI

Very strong ROI. My initial thought was that, based on what I'd read previously, a good part of your return was from the $95k pick5.

But there's no reason to believe you wouldn't have a huge hit or two each year.

[EMD4ME]

Very strong ROI. My initial thought was that, based on what I'd read previously, a good part of your return was from the $95k pick5.

But there's no reason to believe you wouldn't have a huge hit or two each year.

If you're wagering on so many pick 5's per year, if you don't hit some big ones, you're playing wrong. At least IMHO.

The one I blew 2 weeks ago hurt (4/5 and the 1 loss involved 2 bonehead rides), $386K for a duece. Had the harder ones (1 was 60/1 or so) in the sequence and missed a relatively easy one. :bang:

[EMD4ME]

BET $456 into the pick 5 and if the 2 wins this race, despite making a collossal stupid decision (in race 3), can hit the pick 5 4x to the 2 for a profit $624. If the 6 wins, hit it for .50 measly cents. Collect $150 and lose $306. Others win, complete loss on this minor investment.

The scratches in race 2 helped a bit as I moved to the chalk.

After I lost race 3 and the chalk won race 4, I thought I would be alive for peanuts, maybe get some of my bet back.

I am shocked that the pick 5 to the 2 is paying $271 for .50

9/2, 1/10000 (with scratched horses into him), 8/5, 6/5 and maybe 3/1 (if the 2 wins). Parlay is $280 for a deuce, pick 5 is paying $1080 to my horse.

So, even by being wrong, I have a chance to profit decently on a smallish bet.

Let's see what happens.

[EMD4ME]

LOST-Minus $456

Not enchanted with late pick 5, so will caveman it, weighing on the races I believe in the most with a small play.

237/12/all/34/1456791011

Cost $288 for .50 cents. Good luck everyone.

Off to Emerald I go! 6 hours till post.

[sammy the sage]

ouch....chalks....you did pick right lleg to go all in tho...bit of price...get price in the last...will be ok...

[EMD4ME]

ouch....chalks....you did pick right lleg to go all in tho...bit of price...get price in the last...will be ok...

Yeah, I could've singled the 1st leg, the 2nd leg and 4th leg. I usually (90%) of the time play extra tickets to the horses who are most likely/like a lot but in this case I didn't because I wasn't hot about today's card.

8/10 in the last, let's see how it plays out.

[RunForTheRoses]

Was that tlg recognizing the abilities of EMD when before race 6 he was talking about the pick 5 and said something like with a little erudition you can hit big? Inquiring minds want to know.

[EMD4ME]

Was that tlg recognizing the abilities of EMD when before race 6 he was talking about the pick 5 and said something like with a little erudition you can hit big? Inquiring minds want to know.

No way :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Thanks for the thought though.

[Donttellmeshowme]

LOST-Minus $456

Not enchanted with late pick 5, so will caveman it, weighing on the races I believe in the most with a small play.

237/12/all/34/1456791011

Cost $288 for .50 cents. Good luck everyone.

Off to Emerald I go! 6 hours till post.



Check out the Pick 5 Labor Day at Del Mar 13-14-8-12-6 with runners in first 5 races

[cj]

Gargan is king.

[EMD4ME]

Check out the Pick 5 Labor Day at Del Mar 13-14-8-12-6 with runners in first 5 races

I wish I could but I don't bet Delmar. Know nothing about it. I would be a fish throwing away $1000 and hit 3/5.

Appreciate the thought though :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

Gargan is king.

I'm sorry sir, I think you had a typo.

As a beloved soul told me once: It's GARGANTUAN :lol: :lol:

[EMD4ME]

LOST-Minus $456

Not enchanted with late pick 5, so will caveman it, weighing on the races I believe in the most with a small play.

237/12/all/34/1456791011

Cost $288 for .50 cents. Good luck everyone.

Off to Emerald I go! 6 hours till post.

$288 collects for $660.

Bet $744 collected $660. Factor in rebates of 5-6%. We're almost even on a day that I didn't really like a thing. Won't complain.

On to the real track now, EEEEEEEMMMMMEEEEEEERAAAAAAAALD DOWNS!

[the little guy]

Was that tlg recognizing the abilities of EMD when before race 6 he was talking about the pick 5 and said something like with a little erudition you can hit big? Inquiring minds want to know.


Don't give me so much credit.

[EMD4ME]

Don't give me so much credit.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


I think it's time I disappear from PA for awhile. :lol: :lol: :lol:

[RunForTheRoses]

Don't give me so much credit.


Was at the track yesterday so I got to hear you more than usual (usually have tvg on). It's a nice production, you were doing a carnival barker thing before the 1st race trying to get people out, said you were mildly nice, that was good. Liked the classic rock bumper music.

In regard to the thread I had 4 out of 5 in both, second in losing races. Had the 8th race gargan but not 10th, don't know why, wasn't paying attention. Hedged a bit putting the 1 on top in exacta

[EMD4ME]

Just curious, TLG or anyone, is NYRA considering a late Pick 5 at BEL or AQU?