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highnote
07-12-2016, 11:02 PM
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.

Tape Reader
07-12-2016, 11:24 PM
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.

Luv it, highnote. Just what this world needs: Traders with balls!

Maybe it will spawn into a “I predict” thread.

Next…

highnote
07-12-2016, 11:54 PM
Luv it, highnote. Just what this world needs: Traders with balls!

Maybe it will spawn into a “I predict” thread.

Next…


Yesterday, I got my strongest momentum signal for a bull market.

The ratio of NYSE advancing stocks to declining stocks over a ten day period was greater than 2 to 1.

This is a very rare factor. It hasn't happened since March 2009 (It happened a couple months earlier in January 2009, but only hit 1.96 to 1). We know what has happened to the market since then. January 15, 2009 the S&P was at 843. Today it closed at new all-time high of 2137.

On average the market rises 15% over the following 6 months after this signal appears.

It happened 11 times from 1954 to 1991. The smallest gain was just under 10%. The largest was 39%.

I'm hedging my bets by saying 10-15 percent gain because the market has already risen 15% from the beginning of this short term bull market that began giving bull signals in the middle of February 2016 after having bottomed at 1851 on February 10.

Don't Fight The Tape!

The Trend Is Your Friend! :)

highnote
07-14-2016, 10:08 PM
The most recent round of bullishness began on June 28 when nyse up stocks outnumbered down stocks 9 to 1.

June 29 was also a 9 to 1 ratio.

July 8 was nearly 16 to 1!

Most days since June 28 have been in the range of 2 or 3 to 1 up stocks to down stocks, with only a couple of days where down stocks outnumbered up stocks.

The start of this bull market is the biggest one I've seen since the beginning of the March 2009 rally. The 2009 rally had a big spurt forward in July and another in September. That was a great year for stocks.

Last February's rally was pretty good, but not like this one.

Last October was bigger than February, but the market was very weak just before October. The difference today is that the market was already pretty strong and it got even stronger the past couple of weeks.

I don't know how long the current rally will last, but right now there is a lot of upward momentum. If you're not on the bandwagon then you better get out of the way or this train is going to roll right over you.

About the only thing that could stop it is a big interest rate hike.

I think it's safe to say this rally should last through the election. If Clinton wins the rally will probably continue because the regime will stay the same for the most part. Plus, the stock market traditionally does better under Democratic presidents than Republicans. I don't know why. You'd think the opposite would be true. But the research says otherwise.

If Trump gets elected then all bets are off. There would be a lot of changes in Washington and it's hard to say how the markets would react.

I'm not sure how to play the current market except to stay long. In 2009 there was a lot of uncertainty and the VIX was very high. It was a great time to be long and sell deep out of the money covered calls because there was so much easy premium to capture due to volatility.

Currently, the VIX is low at around 12 or 13. Not a lot of volatility, so not a lot of option premium on deep out of the money calls.

I did buy some YCS -- an ultra short yen fund. I expect the yen to get much weaker. Japan is printing money like crazy to try to weaken their currency so that their exports become cheaper for consumers in countries like the U.S. They are doing everything they can to inflate their way out of recession.

lamboguy
07-14-2016, 10:25 PM
i like the prediction, but it will probably kill gold if that happens. i don't like the way silver has traded on this run up to over $20. the prediction is probably spot on or very close because of the interest rates throughout the world. negative interest rates are alive and well now.

highnote
07-14-2016, 11:03 PM
i like the prediction, but it will probably kill gold if that happens. i don't like the way silver has traded on this run up to over $20. the prediction is probably spot on or very close because of the interest rates throughout the world. negative interest rates are alive and well now.

Not sure about how it will affect gold. There is going to be a lot of inflation in the world. So I think gold and silver will still be valuable. I own Hecla Mining. Bought it at $1.50 somewhere around December. It is over $6 now.

I think it still has a lot of room to go up. I don't follow other gold and silver mining stocks, though. I've followed this one since I was kid back in the '70s.

highnote
12-09-2016, 12:13 PM
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.


100 more points to go to hit the low end of my estimate. S&P at 2250 today.

highnote
12-09-2016, 05:18 PM
100 more points to go to hit the low end of my estimate. S&P at 2250 today.

I would not be surprised if there was a small a reversal on Monday or Tuesday, but there is still enough momentum remaining that the market could continue higher into January.

PaceAdvantage
12-12-2016, 01:27 PM
FOMC this week...I wouldn't expect any major moves between now and then...with that said, load up for a big move NOW! :lol:

barn32
12-12-2016, 03:08 PM
FOMC this week...I wouldn't expect any major moves between now and then...with that said, load up for a big move NOW! :lol:I'm long volatility win or lose.

Secondbest
12-12-2016, 03:13 PM
The most expected rate raise in history. Most likely a non event.

highnote
05-14-2017, 07:50 PM
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.

By January 11, 2017 the S&P had hit 2275 -- short of my target of 2350 on the low side and 2457 on the high side.

Now it is May 14, 2017 and the S&P closed at 2,390.90 on Friday, May 12.

My timing was off, but I had the direction right and the S&P has exceeded the low end of my prediction by 40 points.

The S&P actually hit my prediction of 2351 on February 17 -- about 5 weeks later than I predicted.

Overall, not too bad.

I'm still long on stocks, but remember the saying, "Sell in May and go away."

It's hard to say how much more this market can run to the upside. There has not been much volatility. In fact, the VIX hit its 4th lowest mark ever last week. The lowest was back in 1993. The other lows were in July 2005 and late November '06 and again in January '07. The latter two occurred close together, so I would consider January a continuation of November.

We know what happened during 2007-2009. Major recession.

Maybe this time will be different? :confused:

Secondbest
05-14-2017, 08:24 PM
For a good read on the economy go to seeking alpha and read fear & greed trader and Peter Miller.Not that their perfect but nothing they follow shows a recession any time soon. The one big wildcard is of course North Korea.

whodoyoulike
05-14-2017, 11:09 PM
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.

That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.

Great prediction. The part I like is you actually have a basis for it and you're not just guessing and hoping. I remember the financial mood during the middle of last year which makes your prediction even better.

highnote
05-15-2017, 12:07 AM
Great prediction. The part I like is you actually have a basis for it and you're not just guessing and hoping. I remember the financial mood during the middle of last year which makes your prediction even better.

Thanks. I wish I could make a good prediction for the next 3 to 6 months.

I bought shares in VIXY. It's an ETF that is supposed to track the VIX. I figure if the VIX reached its 4th lowest point since 1990 then it will most likely go up. I'm trying to sell call options against the VIXY shares I own. I have not been able to get a good price for them. So far, I haven't had any takers at my asking price. I figure the downside of the VIXY shares is small and the upside is larger -- asynchronous risk.

When the VIX goes up the market usually goes down. They are inversely related.

I don't have an estimate of how much the market can fall, or even if it will fall.

Interest rates are still historically low. Equities still give good returns with minor risks, although, now the risks are getting bigger and I'm not sure there are going to be enough returns to justify the risks.

It's a conundrum.

whodoyoulike
05-15-2017, 04:43 PM
Thanks. I wish I could make a good prediction for the next 3 to 6 months.

:1: I bought shares in VIXY. It's an ETF that is supposed to track the VIX. I figure if the VIX reached its 4th lowest point since 1990 then it will most likely go up. I'm trying to sell call options against the VIXY shares I own. I have not been able to get a good price for them. So far, I haven't had any takers at my asking price. I figure the downside of the VIXY shares is small and the upside is larger -- asynchronous risk.

:2: When the VIX goes up the market usually goes down. They are inversely related.

:3: I don't have an estimate of how much the market can fall, or even if it will fall.

:4: Interest rates are still historically low. Equities still give good returns with minor risks, although, now the risks are getting bigger and I'm not sure there are going to be enough returns to justify the risks.

It's a conundrum.

I agree because I don't get it.

:1: Thanks for this info. I don't think I was aware of this one. I had found and briefly followed several contrarian indexes (I just wish I knew where I had saved the list so I can see updated). Just 5 years ago this index was 1250 as you probably know which makes it an interesting play if there is a significant adjustment.

:2: I also noticed the same a while back. Uncertain why because I really don't understand it's workings. What are you actually buying with this type of index?

:3: Again, I just don't get it but it's probably because of :4: as you've pointed out. Last year, I randomly selected about 60 stocks and compared them (earnings, revenue, cash etc.) to the Dow 30 and the 60 looked terrible. So, it appeared to me that the market is probably looking better than it really is.

:4: I agree with you on both points.

It's scary but you need to have something in equities.

highnote
05-15-2017, 07:52 PM
I bought this ETF: http://www.proshares.com/funds/vixy.html

It looks like the holdings are mainly May and June VIX futures.

My plan is to sell to VIXY September Call options to hedge my long VIXY position.

whodoyoulike
05-15-2017, 10:55 PM
Do you know exactly or what these contrarian indexes own?

These futures can not exactly be identified and the futures, the way I understand them change frequently (maybe hourly, or by the day or are they monthly only?). I've never bought any or looked into them.

For example, the S&P 500 index owns stocks in the S&P 500 and you can actually see a listing.

highnote
05-15-2017, 11:22 PM
Do you know exactly or what these contrarian indexes own?

Yes. You can find it on yahoo finance or on the proshares website:


Top 2 Holdings (99.95% of Total Assets)


Company Symbol % Assets


Cboe Vix Future 03/22/2017 (Uxh7) N/A 55.21%
Cboe Vix Future 04/19/2017 (Uxj7) N/A 44.74%

pandy
05-15-2017, 11:26 PM
Thanks. I wish I could make a good prediction for the next 3 to 6 months.

I bought shares in VIXY. It's an ETF that is supposed to track the VIX. I figure if the VIX reached its 4th lowest point since 1990 then it will most likely go up. I'm trying to sell call options against the VIXY shares I own. I have not been able to get a good price for them. So far, I haven't had any takers at my asking price. I figure the downside of the VIXY shares is small and the upside is larger -- asynchronous risk.

When the VIX goes up the market usually goes down. They are inversely related.

I don't have an estimate of how much the market can fall, or even if it will fall.

Interest rates are still historically low. Equities still give good returns with minor risks, although, now the risks are getting bigger and I'm not sure there are going to be enough returns to justify the risks.

It's a conundrum.


And corporate profits are good.

whodoyoulike
05-16-2017, 04:10 PM
I agree because I don't get it.

:1: Thanks for this info. I don't think I was aware of this one. I had found and briefly followed several contrarian indexes (I just wish I knew where I had saved the list so I can see updated). Just 5 years ago this index was 1250 as you probably know which makes it an interesting play if there is a significant adjustment.

:2: I also noticed the same a while back. Uncertain why because I really don't understand it's workings. What are you actually buying with this type of index?

:3: Again, I just don't get it but it's probably because of :4: as you've pointed out. Last year, I randomly selected about 60 stocks and compared them (earnings, revenue, cash etc.) to the Dow 30 and the 60 looked terrible. So, it appeared to me that the market is probably looking better than it really is.

:4: I agree with you on both points.

It's scary but you need to have something in equities.

The timing of these finance articles can't be just coincidental since I've been noticing and commenting about them for a while.

Many S&P industries are performing poorly, but outsized gains in tech stocks are making the market look better than the underlying trends reveal, TradingAnalysis.com founder Todd Gordon told CNBC on Tuesday. ...

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/16/thank-god-for-apple-and-other-tech-stocks--theyre-propping-up-the-market.html

It's always comforting to see a third party confirming one's evaluations.

whodoyoulike
05-16-2017, 04:25 PM
Yes. You can find it on yahoo finance or on the proshares website:


Top 2 Holdings (99.95% of Total Assets)


Company Symbol % Assets


Cboe Vix Future 03/22/2017 (Uxh7) N/A 55.21%
Cboe Vix Future 04/19/2017 (Uxj7) N/A 44.74%

But, my point is are these Futures actually assets with long term value because if the price of whatever doesn't meet the amount on the Future's date .... isn't it basically worthless?

Again, I don't and haven't really looked into options trading because .... isn't it really just Gambling with just higher stakes?

For me for the purposes of this discussion, Gambling is buying something perceived by me to have a value at that particular time and then at some future point it doesn't have any value. This applies to horses, BJ, poker and sports wagering.

I prefer certain stocks & bonds because they have value after I've purchased them. In the future maybe not the same but, I always hope it's more. I'm using the word "hope" but it's based on my research and therefore I know it will always have a higher future value.

highnote
05-16-2017, 05:43 PM
Options and futures are both contracts, but they have different functions.

They are both valuable when used properly, but can be dangerous because you could lose more than you paid.

When used in certain circumstances they can reduce risk and uncertainty.

I wrote a lot covered call options during the financial crises and got good results with very little risk.

I still write them occasionally, but because the VIX has been so low there has not been much option premium to capture.

Companies in many industries use futures to lock in prices so they have a better estimate of their manufacturing costs.

Options can provide insurance for downside protection of your stocks.

ReplayRandall
05-16-2017, 06:26 PM
Options can provide insurance for downside protection of your stocks.
Then you'd better "Heavy-up" on your options, the bond market is about to go south thanks to Fed's bond dump off it's balance sheets, stocks will fall right behind......Sign, sign, everywhere a sign.

highnote
05-16-2017, 06:32 PM
Eventually the market will go down. Yesterday the S&P hit a new high.

My indicators show no sign of a sell off. Right now I am following the trend.

If I get a sell signal I will post it here.

Low volatility and new highs seem more like a continuation of a bull market than the beginning of a sell off. I have been wrong g before.

lamboguy
05-16-2017, 07:05 PM
Options and futures are both contracts, but they have different functions.

They are both valuable when used properly, but can be dangerous because you could lose more than you paid.

When used in certain circumstances they can reduce risk and uncertainty.

I wrote a lot covered call options during the financial crises and got good results with very little risk.

I still write them occasionally, but because the VIX has been so low there has not been much option premium to capture.

Companies in many industries use futures to lock in prices so they have a better estimate of their manufacturing costs.

Options can provide insurance for downside protection of your stocks.i have been writing calls for the last 12 years on RGLD and have only been called away once. i just stopped writing them last year.

highnote
05-16-2017, 07:22 PM
i have been writing calls for the last 12 years on RGLD and have only been called away once. i just stopped writing them last year.

Why did you stop?

I have been wanting to write them on HL but the premiums are too low.

I wrote a bunch back in early 2009 after the crash. I made good profits, but many were called away because stocks were very low in early 2009 and then shot way up.

whodoyoulike
05-16-2017, 10:20 PM
i have been writing calls for the last 12 years on RGLD and have only been called away once. i just stopped writing them last year.

Would you or anyone else care to explain in simple english?

Thanks. The only part I understood was RGLD.

lamboguy
05-16-2017, 10:50 PM
Would you or anyone else care to explain in simple english?

Thanks. The only part I understood was RGLD.i take it you don't do to much option trading.

when you enter the markets you can either go long, short or neutral. when you write a covered call you own the underlying equity.

what i did was sell a call for whatever it sold for on the open market. example if RGLD was priced at $50 and i sold a call that had a strike price of $55 the premium for a certain length of time might be $1. the buyer pays me the $1 and gets the right to purchase my shares at $55 anytime he wants to within the timeframe that i sold him. when i say my shares get called away, it means that one time the price was $56 or more when the option holder exercised his right.

i hope this explains it to you, if not someone else might do a better job.

highnote
05-16-2017, 11:47 PM
Would you or anyone else care to explain in simple english?

Thanks. The only part I understood was RGLD.

It is complicated to explain using a phone keyboard. Best thing to do is read as much as you can about options. There is a ton of literature on them.

Start with something like "Options for Dummies".

The strategies range from very simple to very complex. You can hedge. You can use them as insurance. You can speculate. You can get tremendous leverage from them and get returns far greater than owning the stock. You can also lose money.

sour grapes
05-17-2017, 12:23 PM
sell some calls now on the vix position,i just sold the july 15s for 1.50. on half my position on a hedge of the portfolio.

sour grapes
05-17-2017, 12:29 PM
just to clarify the calls are for vxx.

ReplayRandall
05-17-2017, 05:48 PM
Crickets.....That's right, nothing but crickets.

PaceAdvantage
05-17-2017, 07:02 PM
Crickets.....That's right, nothing but crickets.I'm not sure what you're getting all excited about...

ReplayRandall
05-17-2017, 07:07 PM
I'm not sure what you're getting all excited about...
Read post #24, then look at the Market close......Just warming up..;)

PaceAdvantage
05-17-2017, 07:09 PM
Read post #24, then look at the Market close......Just warming up..;)The run up has been so massive the past many years, you're gonna need a real hefty drop in order to crow IMO.

Today was not even a drop in the proverbial bucket...but it was a long time coming...been opening shorts for days now waiting to catch something like this.

ReplayRandall
05-17-2017, 07:23 PM
The run up has been so massive the past many years, you're gonna need a real hefty drop in order to crow IMO.

Today was not even a drop in the proverbial bucket...but it was a long time coming...been opening shorts for days now waiting to catch something like this.
As you know from past PM's I've sent you, I don't bust people's chops when the Market was in a steep dive in the past......I don't "crow", Mr. All-World Handicapping god that you are..:lol:

whodoyoulike
05-17-2017, 07:35 PM
The run up has been so massive the past many years, you're gonna need a real hefty drop in order to crow IMO.

Today was not even a drop in the proverbial bucket...but it was a long time coming...been opening shorts for days now waiting to catch something like this.

What do you mean?

Have you been shorting using Vix and then covering each time before day's end?

Or, have you been following thread?

PaceAdvantage
05-17-2017, 08:01 PM
What do you mean?

Have you been shorting using Vix and then covering each time before day's end?

Or, have you been following thread?I've had lots of shorts triggered in the S&P emini futures...they were all losers until today...I usually average 1 trade every couple of days...I've had 1 short going in 4 of the past 5 trading days...usually I ended up shorting right before the market turned back around...not today...

Maybe I'll start posting my trades next, after I top posting my horse picks

PaceAdvantage
05-17-2017, 08:01 PM
Mr. All-World Handicapping god that you are..:lol:That part you got right, at least...:lol:

highnote
05-18-2017, 02:00 AM
Then you'd better "Heavy-up" on your options, the bond market is about to go south thanks to Fed's bond dump off it's balance sheets, stocks will fall right behind......Sign, sign, everywhere a sign.


The swiss central bank holds $129 billion in U.S. equities.

These big players will probably come in and start buying at the first sign of selling in order to prevent a loss.

But if they don't then it might be a good time for small players to sell while the market is still near all-time highs? Or at least insure your portfolios.

Remember -- sell in May and then go away. That is a Wall Street maxim for a reason.

I bought 500 shares of the VIXY ETF for $11.79 and put in an order to sell 5 deep-in-the-money VIXY September 15 call option contracts with a strike price of $5 for $8.40. My order was triggered today when VIXY hit $13.41 at the close.

The cost of the VIXY was $11.79 x 500 shares = $5,895

I collected 5 * $8.40 = $4,200 on the sale of the calls.

My net cost was 5895-4200=$1,695.

The trade can lock in a 140% annualized gain after commissions of about $0.03 per share as long as the VIXY stays above $5 by Sept 15. It can rise to infinity and the trade will still make 140% annualized. It can fall as low as $3.39 before the investment starts losing money.

If VIXY falls to $5 at the September 15 expiration date the options will expire worthless and I will keep the $4,200 for which I sold them. I would lose $6.79 * 500 shares = $3,395. The net profit for the 4 months would be 4200-3395= $805 on a $1,695 investment or 47% -- which is about 144% annualized (not including commissions).

I probably could have rolled the dice and not bought covered calls and just played the VIXY long which would be a pretty safe bet since I bought it when the VIX was near an all-time low, but I like to limit my downside risk while having a very high probability of more than doubling my investment on an annualized basis.

If the VIXY shares get called away there will still be a nice profit.

If I had been paying attention today I would have raised my asking price to $9 or maybe even $10 or perhaps even looked at other stike prices. It's hard to work a day job and trade effectively.

AltonKelsey
05-18-2017, 02:23 AM
Kind of a curious trade. You realize you were the only one to trade that option today, right?

And I think you probably sold it AFTER the underyling moved much higher. correct me if I'm wrong, so you could have just sold the VIXY outright and made a nice gain.

From the way that thing trades the chance of it going to 3 and change within 4 months isn't all that trivial.

Interesting gamble though.

highnote
05-18-2017, 02:31 AM
Kind of a curious trade. You realize you were the only one to trade that option today, right?

And I think you probably sold it AFTER the underyling moved much higher. correct me if I'm wrong, so you could have just sold the VIXY outright and made a nice gain.

From the way that thing trades the chance of it going to 3 and change within 4 months isn't all that trivial.

Interesting gamble though.

You are correct on everything you said.

I was incredibly busy at work today and never got a chance to check prices. Had I checked I would have either raised my asking price on the options or canceled the order. Then I would have had to decide if I wanted to sell my shares at a quick, one week, 20% profit. Off the top of my head, I don't know how much that is annualized, but it's a lot.

I set up the trade because I felt strongly VIXY would go higher, but I also knew it might fall again. So why not lock in an almost guaranteed return of 140% with very little downside risk. What is the chance that VIXY falls from $13.41 to below $3.39 by September 15? Maybe 1%? Probably less. But you say it isn't trivial. So maybe there downside risk is greater than I assumed? If so, then I feel better about my trade compared to just holding the VIXY long.

I knew the VIXY would eventually rise, but when? What if summer saw as much low volatility as we've seen the past two months? I'd have been sitting on 500 shares of VIXY and broke even or maybe even have lost.

Since I worked until midnight, I would have had to come home and put in a sell order for the morning. What if the VIXY falls back to where I bought it? It could also rise more. Who knows?

There is always a tradeoff between risk and return -- growth versus security.

highnote
05-18-2017, 02:36 AM
Kind of a curious trade. You realize you were the only one to trade that option today, right?

And I think you probably sold it AFTER the underyling moved much higher. correct me if I'm wrong, so you could have just sold the VIXY outright and made a nice gain.

From the way that thing trades the chance of it going to 3 and change within 4 months isn't all that trivial.

Interesting gamble though.

I made a lot of these deep-in-the-money trades back in mid 2009. I ended up making over 20% on average. I would have made more, but I made a couple of mistakes because I had never done them before.

I sold a lot of deep-in-the-money calls on GE and Bank of America. The option premium was incredible because everyone thought the world was going to end.

AltonKelsey
05-18-2017, 01:08 PM
Well, I hate to tell you, you didn't lock in anything by putting your sell out there at 8.40. That wasn't a simultaneous trade.

If the option doesn't fill, (and the only reason it did it it was picked off cheap) you have all the risk to the downside.

I think you would be much better off trading out of the thing than fooling with selling an option where you got almost no premium.

highnote
05-18-2017, 02:00 PM
Well, I hate to tell you, you didn't lock in anything by putting your sell out there at 8.40. That wasn't a simultaneous trade.

If the option doesn't fill, (and the only reason it did it it was picked off cheap) you have all the risk to the downside.

I think you would be much better off trading out of the thing than fooling with selling an option where you got almost no premium.

Your point is valid. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer. It all depends on your risk tolerance and goals. I did my trade through a retirement IRA. My goal is to maximize gains while limiting risk. As Warren Buffett and Ed Thorp like to say -- "Never lose money."

I was happy to hold VIXY long because I bought it when the VIX hit its 4th lowest day on record. Now that the contracts where bought there is a reasonably good chance of making a 140% profit with less risk than holding VIXY without selling options.

The downside risk is covered up to about an 80% drop and the upside risk is covered to infinity versus holding VIXY without options. VIXY has never been as low $5 and it can drop as low as $3.39 before the trade starts losing money. After VIXY rose by $1.50 after my purchase, without options, I had about 15% to 20% downside protection.

You pick your poison. With options -- limited downside risk, zero upside risk, but limited gains. Or without options -- large downside risk, zero upside risk, but unlimited upside gains.

Like I said before, had I been home from work and watching the market all day I would have done things differently. But when I bought the VIXY there was no way of knowing for certain that it would go up. The way it worked out is not the worst trade in the world and is about as close to making a guaranteed profit as I can think of.

AltonKelsey
05-18-2017, 02:11 PM
I think you're getting lost in the weeds a bit.

All you had to do was SELL the position to make almost the same amount of profit , without the risk of the thing dropping below 4 or whatever the breakeven is.

Plus you would have freed up the capital completely , not having to hold for 4 months.

You can still trade out of it, but you'll lose a few cents hitting the bid .


Selling a deep itm option with 5 cents premium serves no purpose, if you're holding a long against it.

highnote
05-18-2017, 02:20 PM
I think you're getting lost in the weeds a bit.

All you had to do was SELL the position to make almost the same amount of profit , without the risk of the thing dropping below 4 or whatever the breakeven is.

Plus you would have freed up the capital completely , not having to hold for 4 months.

You can still trade out of it, but you'll lose a few cents hitting the bid .


Selling a deep itm option with 5 cents premium serves no purpose, if you're holding a long against it.

Again, had I NOT been at work I would have done exactly what you are saying.

The 5 cents per share premium you mention is not the way I figured it. I figured the premium based on what I paid for VIXY ($11.79), not on yesterday's closing price ($13.41).

The cost of VIXY ($5895) minus sale of option ($4200) is about $1700.
So I'm only holding about $1700 for 4 months with a likely $800 gain.

The per share conversion value of the option was the price I paid for VIXY
($11.79) minus the $5 strike price = $6.79.

The price of the option was $8.40.

That leaves a per share premium of $8.40 - $6.69 = $1.61.

After approximately 3 cents per share commission the net per share option premium is $1.58.

That nets out to a 140% gain if VIXY closes above $5 at expiration.

Also, VIXY opened down this morning, so I wouldn't have gotten as good a price.

Too, because I only shelled out $1700 for the trade I can put the other $4,000 to work on something else. Had I bought the VIXY and it fell in value -- which it did the first few days I owned it, who knows how long I would have had to tie up the entire $5800.

AltonKelsey
05-18-2017, 02:33 PM
I'll say this one last time, then move on to my SFOR investments.

The only reason you got that fill at 8.40 is the stock moved to 13 and change.

You could just as well have put in a limit order to sell the stock at 13 and change and been done with the trade , same profit.


Messing with the option is nonsense.

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2017, 02:46 PM
I've been long S&P futures since 9:55 this morning...got in at 2355.75 and my trailing stop is now at 2355.25. I was up to 2367.50 at one point, and then it dropped and almost took me out...still in though...will update at end of day. Currently at 2360.

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2017, 02:57 PM
And not 10 minutes after I type the above, the market is taking off again...now at 2365...wish me luck! :lol:

highnote
05-18-2017, 02:58 PM
I'll say this one last time, then move on to my SFOR investments.

The only reason you got that fill at 8.40 is the stock moved to 13 and change.

You could just as well have put in a limit order to sell the stock at 13 and change and been done with the trade , same profit.


Messing with the option is nonsense.

Valid point. Maybe I'll do that next time instead. :)

I guess it makes sense to sell the options when the premiums are already in place -- like in March of 2009.

highnote
05-18-2017, 03:02 PM
And not 10 minutes after I type the above, the market is taking off again...now at 2365...wish me luck! :lol:

Good luck!:)

AltonKelsey
05-18-2017, 03:12 PM
And not 10 minutes after I type the above, the market is taking off again...now at 2365...wish me luck! :lol:


Vid of Comey might be the reason

#maga

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-18/comey-admits-under-oath-obstructions-investigations-never-happened

reckless
05-18-2017, 03:34 PM
I picked up some of my very cheap long term winners this morning at the start. I did get worried because I got my bid price a little too quickly. When that happens I usually worry.

I went in today, despite the dire predictions of some of our players on here, because all day yesterday, on all the business shows, I heard the market was tanking because of the Trump-Russia-Comey 'memo' stupidity.

Anyone that could read, write, listen and think, knows this Russia thing is a phony story and has been one since jump street. But too many people on here and in the media wish to delude themselves, sad to say.

So, I invested this morning solely because this false market drop was 'because' of the Wash DC dramatics and nothing to do with reality or common sense. At least that's how I saw and heard most of the analysis yesterday.

It's just too bad it didn't last longer -- the decline that is, but I'll take what was giveth, and let the day traders, the chartists, the Trump haters, and the end is near crowd do their thing, which isn't investing as much as it is ... how to get the better of the media headlines and the talking heads on TV, which drive a lot of the market action, imo.

Good luck to everyone.

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2017, 03:41 PM
Up to 2373 now...today turning out as good as yesterday....so far...still a long way to go...but my stop is now at 2362.75, so this is a guaranteed profitable trade...

lamboguy
05-18-2017, 03:46 PM
Up to 2373 now...today turning out as good as yesterday....so far...still a long way to go...but my stop is now at 2362.75, so this is a guaranteed profitable trade...do you stay in overnight on this trade?

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2017, 03:52 PM
do you stay in overnight on this trade?Strictly day trades during regular market hours

lamboguy
05-18-2017, 04:27 PM
Strictly day trades during regular market hoursi am glad that you are only day trading this thing because i don't like the prospects for the market after it bounced today. to me going up today lends its way to some very bearish possibilities.

i had wanted to see a spike down and then go long today,

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2017, 04:37 PM
Up to 2373 now...today turning out as good as yesterday....so far...still a long way to go...but my stop is now at 2362.75, so this is a guaranteed profitable trade...Market now off best...at 2367.50....might be stopped out if this continues...

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2017, 05:17 PM
Got screwed in the end and exited at 2363.50...a gain of only 7.75 points....left a whole bunch on the table since it got up to 2375...oh well...

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 10:36 AM
Just went long @ 2387.75 with stop at 2376.75

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 10:51 AM
Stop moved to 2379.75

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 11:50 AM
Not seeing a lot of positives on this trade at the moment...stop remains as before

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 01:15 PM
Hmmmm...new highs on the day...maybe this one has legs left...stop moved to 2380.75

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 01:23 PM
Stop moved to 2382.25

highnote
05-22-2017, 04:52 PM
Just went long @ 2387.75 with stop at 2376.75

Looks like a good bet.

Nice run-up today.

Also, nice fall in VIX and VIXY.

I am thinking about buying more VIXY. The downside risk seems minimal. It's probably as likely to fall 10% as it is to rise 40% over the next 3 months.

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 05:00 PM
15 min left...stop at 2383.25

highnote
05-22-2017, 05:07 PM
15 min left...stop at 2383.25

Looks like you're in good shape.

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 05:17 PM
Got out at 2392.50...made a whopping 4.75 points...:lol:

Better than losing I guess

highnote
05-22-2017, 06:26 PM
Got out at 2392.50...made a whopping 4.75 points...:lol:

Better than losing I guess

How many dollars did you make per point? If you made $1 per point that is not much. But if you made $1,000 per point, then that was pretty good.

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 06:28 PM
How many dollars did you make per point? If you made $1 per point that is not much. But if you made $1,000 per point, then that was pretty good.The instrument I trade (S&P eMini Futures) is $50 per point per contract.

highnote
05-22-2017, 07:56 PM
The instrument I trade (S&P eMini Futures) is $50 per point per contract.

20 contracts. ;)

PaceAdvantage
05-22-2017, 08:01 PM
20 contracts. ;)The great thing about the markets, compared to the track, is that if you find something that actually works, you will have ZERO problem sizing up to a point that will make you a fantastic living, as there is humongous liquidity in S&P futures...bet size is not a problem for most mortals IF you have something that works...:lol:

highnote
05-22-2017, 09:10 PM
The great thing about the markets, compared to the track, is that if you find something that actually works, you will have ZERO problem sizing up to a point that will make you a fantastic living, as there is humongous liquidity in S&P futures...bet size is not a problem for most mortals IF you have something that works...:lol:

By the way...

One of the reasons deep-in-the-money covered calls work is for the opposite reason -- they are not liquid so big funds can't be bothered. However, the percentage gains can be tremendous.

AltonKelsey
05-22-2017, 10:14 PM
I'd hazard that VIXY has a lot more downside potential than 10% . A lot.

highnote
05-22-2017, 10:30 PM
I'd hazard that VIXY has a lot more downside potential than 10% . A lot.

You're probably right.

I should have stated it differently.

I was thinking something like the following, but didn't state it as well as I could have...

If it falls to the low it was at last week, around 9.50, then, intuitively, it seems like a drop of about 10% has about a 50% likelihood -- the same likelihood as a 40% rise from today's closing price.

Here is another scenario that uses more of a standard deviation approach:

3 months from now I estimate that there is a 65% chance trades anywhere from 8.50 to 16. Maybe there is a 30% chance it trade 6 to 19 -- call that one standard deviation. Maybe a 5% chance it trades lower than 6 or higher than 19 and call that two SDs.

These are a mix of gut level predictions based on the model I keep and the sentiment I gather from reading the market and political news. A little bit of science and a little bit of art.

n.c
05-23-2017, 12:33 AM
so market will correct 5-10 percent, it just needs a excuse..earnings season almost over, so not much left to push the stocks up now. Maybe AMZN can hit 1000, then the correction happens

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 10:35 AM
Just entered short at 2395...stop at 2406

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 11:05 AM
Stop moved to 2403

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 11:09 AM
These last couple of 5 min bars haven't boded well for me...I don't have a good feeling about this trade at the moment...but it's all automated, so it takes the emotion out of it for me, which is a good thing, win or lose.

And this bar that just closed at 10:10 was particularly bad...

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 12:30 PM
Yup, this trade has STOP LOSS written all over it at this point. But I will let it play out as always...

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 12:35 PM
Nice fat tail on the bar that closed at 11:35...pinning my hopes that this might be a sign of a turnaround...

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 04:46 PM
Still in this trade by the way...let's see if it can move my way in the last 30 minutes...looking better now

Rats...bouncing off the 1pm low....can't seem to get anything today...

PaceAdvantage
05-23-2017, 05:15 PM
Wasn't meant to be....lost 3.25 points on the trade, out at 4:14 :50 @ 2398.25

whodoyoulike
05-23-2017, 05:22 PM
FYI, and I know this speculation has been bouncing around for a couple of years now.

The Fed is about to tell the markets how it plans to remove itself bit by bit from the experimental program that made it a major player in the financial markets.

In Wednesday's release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting, economists expect to see some rough details of how the central bank could start the unwind of its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet, a process it should take slowly since it could impact interest rates. ...

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/the-fed-is-about-to-reveal-how-it-could-wind-down-its-biggest-policy-experiment-ever.html

reckless
05-23-2017, 06:43 PM
so market will correct 5-10 percent, it just needs a excuse..earnings season almost over, so not much left to push the stocks up now. Maybe AMZN can hit 1000, then the correction happens

SO will Amazon hitting 1,000 be the reason for the 5-10 percent correction?

Please tell me why you think that. Thanks.

reckless
05-23-2017, 06:55 PM
FYI, and I know this speculation has been bouncing around for a couple of years now.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/the-fed-is-about-to-reveal-how-it-could-wind-down-its-biggest-policy-experiment-ever.html

I just love CNBC ... totally clueless to reality and beholden to Wall Street gonivs.

Unless I missed it did anyone put a price tag on where the 10-year or 30-year Treasury rate will be after this Fed's policy shift?

Interest rates will creep up -- because the Trump economy is churning upward.

The Fed story is a joke. The Fed policy wasn't the reason Apple went from $86 or so on January 20, 2016 to about $150 today?

Interest rates will creep up, I repeat. But the 10-year needs to hit about 4 per cent before the market even considers selling off and correcting. Slightly higher rates are good for the market.

This Trump rally is not even in the 3rd inning yet, but I know I have a different opinion than most of you guys.

There's still plenty of time to invest in this generational buying opportunity stock market.

Don't be a (negative) headline sucker, please.

Listen to reckless. :)

whodoyoulike
05-23-2017, 07:23 PM
I just love CNBC ... totally clueless to reality and beholden to Wall Street gonivs. ...

Don't be a (negative) headline sucker, please.

Listen to reckless. :)

Hey wait a sec! I just posted just in case people wouldn't have seen this article. It's supposed to be announced tomorrow. We'll see. As I noted it's been bouncing around a couple years.

I make up my own mind but I weigh as much info as possible to do it. Even yours.

_______
05-23-2017, 10:04 PM
I just love CNBC ... totally clueless to reality and beholden to Wall Street gonivs.

Unless I missed it did anyone put a price tag on where the 10-year or 30-year Treasury rate will be after this Fed's policy shift?

Interest rates will creep up -- because the Trump economy is churning upward.

The Fed story is a joke. The Fed policy wasn't the reason Apple went from $86 or so on January 20, 2016 to about $150 today?

Interest rates will creep up, I repeat. But the 10-year needs to hit about 4 per cent before the market even considers selling off and correcting. Slightly higher rates are good for the market.

This Trump rally is not even in the 3rd inning yet, but I know I have a different opinion than most of you guys.

There's still plenty of time to invest in this generational buying opportunity stock market.

Don't be a (negative) headline sucker, please.

Listen to reckless. :)

I don't disagree with all of this but I'd want to add some granularity. Higher interest rates are going to be great for those lending money. Well managed companies outside of lenders will navigate the new world fine. But it's also going to be a welcome drag on companies whose business model only works in a world of cheap easily accessible loans. There is going to be some dark smoke along with the acceleration.

Years of low interest rates have created a sclerosis of marginal companies throughout the economy. Some of those will get blown out the tailpipe by higher rates.

As you know, I am no fan of Trump. But even if none of his economic policies get enacted, the lack of new regulations is a positive.

I don't give Trump credit for all the run up in stocks since his election. Some of it would have occurred in a Clinton administration. But some of it wouldn't.

Anyone who lets politics influence their investments hates money.

This market was mostly hated by Republican's for the last 8 years. That turned out okay. I'm guessing the worst recession since the depression gets followed by a similar decades long recovery that one did. Regardless of Democratic wishes.

And Trump gets a little credit for not erecting new barriers. Maybe more if he can manage to avoid tripping over his own feet a little longer and actually gets something passed in Congress.

reckless
05-24-2017, 03:34 PM
Hey wait a sec! I just posted just in case people wouldn't have seen this article. It's supposed to be announced tomorrow. We'll see. As I noted it's been bouncing around a couple years.

I make up my own mind but I weigh as much info as possible to do it. Even yours.

My post quoting you was not a knock at you, whodoyoulike. If you thought so, I am truly sorry. That wasn't my intent at all.

I quoted you and the link because I do feel that the so-called 'journalism' in the media is horrible -- even worse than the political media, if that's possible.

I just tried to bring out what is reported as news is often patently incorrect. And if it isn't simply wrong, this 'news' is biased because they interview conflicted and compromised industry 'experts'.

And I also believe that many day traders, options players, etc., play the market by utilizing the headline news and information taken from these sites, which I feel is detrimental to ones financial well-being.

whodoyoulike
05-24-2017, 04:42 PM
:1: My post quoting you was not a knock at you, whodoyoulike. If you thought so, I am truly sorry. That wasn't my intent at all.

I quoted you and the link because I do feel that the so-called 'journalism' in the media is horrible -- even worse than the political media, if that's possible.

:2: I just tried to bring out what is reported as news is often patently incorrect. And if it isn't simply wrong, this 'news' is biased because they interview conflicted and compromised industry 'experts'.

And I also believe that many day traders, options players, etc., play the market by utilizing the headline news and information taken from these sites, which I feel is detrimental to ones financial well-being.

:1: Okay, I guess I took it incorrectly as I previously mentioned it was posted as an FYI.

:2: Interesting because I just read a Bloomberg article posted today based on the published FED minutes which mentions exactly what was speculated and reported the day before in the CNBC article.

A. reduction in the Fed balance Sheet and,
B. possible rate increase in June.

Most Federal Reserve officials judged “it would soon be appropriate” to tighten monetary policy again and backed a plan that would gradually shrink their $4.5 trillion balance sheet. ...

The statement points toward a hike as soon as the Fed’s meeting in mid-June, though FOMC voters added the caveat that “it would be prudent” to wait for evidence that a recent slowdown in economic activity had been transitory. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/most-fed-officials-saw-tightening-soon-favored-unwind-plan

I think there's a leak.

PaceAdvantage
05-25-2017, 11:52 AM
Just went long @ 2413.5 with a stop @ 2403.75

PaceAdvantage
05-25-2017, 03:22 PM
Trade hasn't gone much of anywhere since inception...still long...stop now at 2405.75

PaceAdvantage
05-25-2017, 05:15 PM
Made absolutely nothing...held all day long to get closed out at 2413.50...lost $4 in commission though...:lol:

n.c
05-25-2017, 09:02 PM
then the 5 percent correction..which will take it to 6000..then they will say, will it hold 6000..so if you want to go short, next few days will be the best time.

PaceAdvantage
06-06-2017, 11:06 AM
Just went long ES @ 2431.50 with stop @ 2421

PaceAdvantage
06-06-2017, 11:21 AM
This most recently closed 5 min bar was a very scary one for me...I don't like it one bit. But staying in the trade...stop moved to 2423.75

Luckily, I don't trade on emotion...if I did, I would be out of this trade now. But even if I lose this trade, it won't bother me one bit.

PaceAdvantage
06-06-2017, 03:42 PM
Everytime we make new highs (at least during the RTH session), they smack it down...at least this time there wasn't a big volume push behind it...

Stop at 2425...looking like they are trying to push it up again...I'd love to see some follow-through here, but I just don't think it's in the cards...now's the time though...

PaceAdvantage
06-06-2017, 04:40 PM
So much for that BS....:pound:

lamboguy
06-06-2017, 04:50 PM
they are pushing the dollar down with volume lately. gold volume has picked up bigtime, we are headed to the $2000 mark with gold and probably fast.

PaceAdvantage
06-06-2017, 05:16 PM
Well, it ended up bouncing back after diving down...so I exited at 4:14 :50 @ 2430.50, a loss of 1 point...:sleeping:

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 10:55 AM
Long at 2437 stop at 2427

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 11:00 AM
Reversed and now short @ 2438 stop @ 2448.25

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 11:06 AM
Out manually @ 2439.50 for a total loss of .25 points. I'm not trading the rest of the day. I usually don't trade the day after contract turnover, because for some reason, my numbers tend to get funky. This is one of those days...so instead of gambling, I will hold to my original premise not to trade today...

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 03:37 PM
And of course, had I not abandoned the day manually (overriding my automatic trading system, because I've vowed over the last year to try and stop trading on day-after-rollover), I would still be short from 2438...the market always knows how to **** with you at just the right moment...:pound::(

barn32
06-09-2017, 04:26 PM
What was that a mini-flash-crash or something? I thought the orange-haired one would save us, but it looks like it was another overreaction.

Still took me down big time though.

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 04:29 PM
What was that a mini-flash-crash or something?No...it was just the market messing with my head again...

Hell, the DOW never went negative on the day, so how could it be any kind of crash? :pound:

Parkview_Pirate
06-09-2017, 04:46 PM
NASDAQ broke - took down the rest of the market. I was short for a week, waiting on a retrace from late last week's pumps. Got out of the /ES with small profit, after being underwater for a while.

Gonna take a week's worth of days like this to begin to believe the upward trend has changed....

PaceAdvantage
06-09-2017, 04:48 PM
Wow...I just realized the NQ futures are down over 150 points...holy shite!

Never really look at Nasdaq much these days...was seeing S&P down a few points and DOW still up (talking futures here)...wouldn't have dreamed the Nasdaq could be down that much with the other indexes not down overall much on the day...

WTF?

barn32
06-09-2017, 04:52 PM
One of the talking heads made a good point last week...85-90% of the money invested in the FANG type stocks are institutions. What or who is left to push them up farther?

Parkview_Pirate
06-09-2017, 08:38 PM
More details on the tech wreck.

https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/06/09/suddenly-tech-stocks-are-getting-slammed/

Those massive tech stocks that for months lead the market higher reversed course most sharply. Apple Inc. and Microsoft each dropped 3.3%, while Facebook and Google parent Alphabet slumped 3% apiece. Amazon.com Inc. dropped 2.6%.

Headed into Friday, those five stocks have accounted for 41% of the S&P 500’s market-capitalization advance this year.

Some of the tech stocks haven't been making any profits, and relying on investor money to provide the cash flows - like most of the fracking companies. The P/E ratios of Amazon, in particular, were completely out of sight.

Maybe the "new economy" isn't so sustainable....

AltonKelsey
06-10-2017, 12:31 AM
We had a crack like this in QQQ not long ago. Just look for the big fat red down bar.

Market's driven by bots, who walk it up for weeks on end then reset and do it again.

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 12:28 PM
Just went long ES @ 2425.25 stop @ 2415

highnote
06-15-2017, 12:33 PM
Some of the tech stocks haven't been making any profits, and relying on investor money to provide the cash flows - like most of the fracking companies. The P/E ratios of Amazon, in particular, were completely out of sight.

Maybe the "new economy" isn't so sustainable....

Amazon and Tesla have benefitted from low interest rates. Their borrowing costs are essentially zero. As interest rates go up their borrowing costs increase.

Bezos and Musk are smart guys. Maybe they will find ways to keep their shareholders happy.

barn32
06-15-2017, 12:35 PM
Just went long ES @ 2425.25 stop @ 2415You could raise your stop to 2425.5 now, lock in a profit, and hope for a run.

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 12:38 PM
You could raise your stop to 2425.5 now, lock in a profit, and hope for a run.not how I roll...stop raised only to 2417.50

My records show I do best when I give these things a decent amount of breathing room...

BTW, the 5min bar after the big jump just now is disconcerting...so you'll probably be right in your advice this time...I'll probably end up getting stopped out for a loss doing it my way...

But I don't trade by the seat of my pants anymore...I let my trading algo make all the decisions for me (I programmed it, so I trust it).

barn32
06-15-2017, 12:47 PM
not how I roll...stop raised only to 2417.50

My records show I do best when I give these things a decent amount of breathing room...

BTW, the 5min bar after the big jump just now is disconcerting...so you'll probably be right in your advice this time...I'll probably end up getting stopped out for a loss doing it my way...

But I don't trade by the seat of my pants anymore...I let my trading algo make all the decisions for me (I programmed it, so I trust it).You're probably best not to take my advice vis a vis futures. I've blown up two accounts over the years day trading futures, which I no longer do.

Now, instead, I'm trying to blow up my account day trading options. :pound:

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 12:51 PM
I've blown up two accounts over the years day trading futures, which I no longer do.I think I have you beat there...:pound:

But I'm stubborn, as you know...plus I completely changed the way I look at futures...I was dead set on trying to find something that would trade all day long, tons of trades a day, to make money.

Wrong way to go for a retail guy like me who's not a PHD in quantum math.

So, I put aside the notion that if I'm not trading 10x a day, it's useless.

Now, I've come up with a way that trades maybe a couple times a week at most...

barn32
06-15-2017, 12:56 PM
I think I have you beat there...:pound:

But I'm stubborn, as you know...plus I completely changed the way I look at futures...I was dead set on trying to find something that would trade all day long, tons of trades a day, to make money.

Wrong way to go for a retail guy like me who's not a PHD in quantum math.

So, I put aside the notion that if I'm not trading 10x a day, it's useless.

Now, I've come up with a way that trades maybe a couple times a week at most...I came to the same conclusion. Day trading is folly. A longer time horizon makes more sense.

highnote
06-15-2017, 01:01 PM
Just went long ES @ 2425.25 stop @ 2415

My model is still long S&P. The small interest rate increase wasn't enough to turn my model to the short side. The interest rate increases are moderately bearish.

Installment Debt for the year has decreased. That's a good sign.

The Yield Curve signals a buy where it now stands at 1.78.

On July 12 of 2016 the biggest buy signal in my model was triggered -- the ratio of NYSE up stocks to down stocks over a 10 day period was more than 2-1. That is extremely bullish and shows there is a ton of momentum. The market has been booming ever since and really hasn't showed any signs of slowing. The FED is trying to cool things off with 2 interest rate increases, but they're tiny increases.

The S&P has never receded 4% from recent cyclical highs over the past year. A bearish signal would be given if the S&P drops by 4% from any peak. That has not happened since November 2, 2016 and it only lasted a couple weeks before the S&P rose more than 4%. That weak bearish signal was not enough to override the strong bullish signal from July 2016.

The only negatives are 1.) the two small raises in interest rates in the past 4 months and 2.) the P/E ratio of the S&P is on the overvalued side at 25.81.

However, the high P/E ratio is may partly be caused by low earnings relative to prices due to the recovering economy. As the economy continues to recover due to all the money that was poured into the economy from Quantitative Easing over the past 8 years and an increase in interest rates I would expect the P/E ratio to come down a bit as some money is switched into fixed income securities and out of stocks. I would not be surprised to see a deceleration in the increase of stock prices while earnings steadily increase. This should bring the P/E ratio of the S&P down to a less overvalued and less speculative level.

In my opinion being long stocks is the right position to hold.

The majority of my portfolio is long, but I have hedge a bit by selling calls on my larger holdings which generates nice extra income and if the stocks get called away that's ok. I bought them at very low prices.

I also have additional hedging having bought the VIXY ETF at historical lows. I sold calls on half this position and hold the other half long as I expect volatility increase from the historically low levels.

barn32
06-15-2017, 01:06 PM
My model is still long S&P. The small interest rate increase wasn't enough to turn my model to the short side. The interest rate increases are moderately bearish.

I also have additional hedging having bought the VIXY ETF at historical lows. I sold calls on half this position and hold the other half long as I expect volatility increase from the historically low levels.I took note of your model call and agreed with it and got long as well.

Why are you trading VIXY instead of UVXY?

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 01:10 PM
I came to the same conclusion. Day trading is folly. A longer time horizon makes more sense.Oh, I still only day trade futures. I never hold overnight...I'm just not looking to trade 10-20x a day anymore like I used to...going for one larger score with wider trailing stops is preferable to me as opposed to trying to steal nickles in front of steamrollers like I used to...:lol:

highnote
06-15-2017, 02:45 PM
I took note of your model call and agreed with it and got long as well.

Why are you trading VIXY instead of UVXY?

It's a 2x ETF. I don't know enough about it to feel comfortable betting on it.

Here is the UVXY chart:

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 03:47 PM
Just went long ES @ 2425.25 stop @ 2415Stop moved to 2420

AltonKelsey
06-15-2017, 03:47 PM
Oh, I still only day trade futures. I never hold overnight...I'm just not looking to trade 10-20x a day anymore like I used to...going for one larger score with wider trailing stops is preferable to me as opposed to trying to steal nickles in front of steamrollers like I used to...:lol:


I only have one question. How many steamrollers made your acquaintance ?

highnote
06-15-2017, 04:18 PM
It's a 2x ETF. I don't know enough about it to feel comfortable betting on it.

Here is the UVXY chart:

How much lower can it go? Maybe it is a good time to buy?

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 04:24 PM
Stop moved to 2420Moved up to 2421.50

AltonKelsey
06-15-2017, 05:04 PM
How much lower can it go? Maybe it is a good time to buy?


Save yourself the grief. It doesn't work that way. It might go higher, but there is no bottom to it besides zero.

PaceAdvantage
06-15-2017, 05:15 PM
Just went long ES @ 2425.25 stop @ 2415Exited at 2431.75 for a gain of 6.5 points

reckless
06-15-2017, 06:12 PM
I know this has become the wrong neighborhood for me to hang out in since I don't play futures, or play ETFs, options, play in day trading, and I especially do not play the silly game of thinking that the Federal Reserve is the reason for this current bull market.

With the recent sell-off of mostly NASDAQ darlings such as Amazon, Google, and even dirt-cheap Apple, I suspect the Bloomberg TV crowd are thinking armageddon. Is it possible that this is nothing more than a rotation of money out of these over-hyped stocks such as Tesla into real companies that make real products such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Apple, Gilead, Lazard, First American Financial, Accenture... and a dozen more dirt cheap companies?

PaceAdvantage
06-16-2017, 10:36 AM
Yikes...just went long @ 2428.5 stop @ 2418.25

PaceAdvantage
06-16-2017, 10:46 AM
Getting crushed quickly on this one...:(:lol:

PaceAdvantage
06-16-2017, 01:29 PM
Still in this trade...stop still the same...but I'm staging a bit of a comeback...with plenty of time left to get crushed again...:lol:

PaceAdvantage
06-16-2017, 05:16 PM
Exited @ 2430.75 for a shocking gain of 2.25 points...I was down over 6 points at one time, and quickly...thought for sure this was going to be a max loss trade...:lol:

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 10:42 AM
Just went short @ 2445.25 stop @ 2455

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 12:07 PM
Stop moved to 2451

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 01:26 PM
Stop moved to 2448.25

barn32
06-20-2017, 01:32 PM
Stop moved to 2448.25How do you determine when to move your stops, and do you trade in even numbered contracts?

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 01:40 PM
Stop moved to 2447.25

I use a trailing stop...the initial width of which is based on a volatility calculation

I like to give these trades plenty of wiggle room...even during periods of low volatility as we see these days.

I've only been testing/trading this system for about a year and a half, so I am still trading very small lots, thus number of contracts isn't much of a concern at the moment.

Though I don't know why an odd or even amount of contracts would make a difference, since I don't scale in or out of trades (and wouldn't plan to in the future if I up my size considerably). Even if I did scale in or out (say, close out half the position at a certain point of profit), I'm still not sure why an even or odd amount would make much of a difference.

barn32
06-20-2017, 02:14 PM
Though I don't know why an odd or even amount of contracts would make a difference, since I don't scale in or out of trades (and wouldn't plan to in the future if I up my size considerably). Even if I did scale in or out (say, close out half the position at a certain point of profit), I'm still not sure why an even or odd amount would make much of a difference.It doesn't make that much difference, but I have found with my option trading that some of these options will shoot up 50 to 100% fairly quickly and then fall back leaving me with a lot less profit or even a loss. If I trade in even numbered lots it's easier to lock in a profit and let the remaining contracts run.

If I buy 2 XYZ options for $5.00 and it shoots up to $7.50, I can sell one for a $2.50 profit and if the option then falls back to $5.00 I can sell the other and still be up $2.50. I could also hold on if I like, and if it continues to fall I will have reduced my loss by $2.50

On the other hand if the stock continues to go up I can make even more profit with my remaining contract.

This is working much better for me than selling farther out of the money options (and creating a spread) as a hedge, which is what I was doing.

You of course know all this, but that's why I was asking.

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 02:24 PM
You see at the moment why I have a wide-ish stop....lol

It's never easy playing this game.

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 02:29 PM
For the record, there is a ridiculous amount of liquidity in the S&P e-mini futures, which I currently trade. Getting in and out, even with a large number of contracts, is quite easy with little slippage.

There are hundreds of contracts sitting at the bid and ask at every single tick...often times 1,000 or more contracts at each quarter point level...

At this point in the day, the ES has already traded over 800,000 contracts

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 04:35 PM
Stop moved to 2446.25

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 04:48 PM
Stop moved to 2444

AltonKelsey
06-20-2017, 04:50 PM
Stop moved to 2444

good trading, with entries like that who needs horses.

notice you're usually long, why the short today?

AltonKelsey
06-20-2017, 04:56 PM
fwiw, ES has about 1,000 times the liquidity you need under normal conditions.

its the black swan events that are a problem, but chances are with a hard stop , you will probably get out. no guarantees though.

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 04:56 PM
Being usually long lately has been a good thing...:lol:

I'm short because that's the signal that came up this morning.

I'm working with a method I developed using ES data over the last ten years...it's day-trade only and usually comes up with a couple of trades a week.

Hasn't had a losing year in any of the backtested years or since I started trading it live at the start of 2016 (so granted, that's only one positive year of live testing...:lol:)

With only a couple of trades a week on average, it's woefully short on "number of trades" in terms of being statistically sound...this much I know. Which is why after a year and a half trading this live, I'm still only trading small size.

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 05:16 PM
Covered short @ 2437.50, gain of 7.75 points...

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 05:45 PM
BTW, it was like pulling teeth to get this market to go down and stay down today...I don't know why I bother to sit and watch the market while I'm in a trade, given I've automated everything. All it does is frustrate me to see the market take a nice swing down, only to bounce right back up again...but I shouldn't complain.

AltonKelsey
06-20-2017, 06:12 PM
Surprised you wait till the 4:15 close. My guess is you'd be better with the 4pm close , unless your backtest proves otherwise.

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 06:15 PM
I tested this actually...and I was better off waiting until the last possible minute...but it wasn't a huge difference either way.

PaceAdvantage
06-20-2017, 06:16 PM
Another thing I tested that kind of surprised me....Tue-Thur were the most profitable trading days by far...with Wed & Thu being the most profitable days.

Mondays and Fridays weren't nearly as profitable (but still profitable overall).

I can understand Friday...but Monday kind of surprised me for some reason.

highnote
06-20-2017, 11:22 PM
I can't find my post from last July of 2016, but I predicted the market would rise by up to 15% by January 2017.

I made that same prediction a few years earlier. Both times I hit the target price, but it took about 6 months longer than I thought it would.

In July of 2016 I predicted S&P of 2457 by January 2017.

S&P closed at 2453.46 today -- June 20, 2017. That's pretty close to my prediction.

Unfortunately, I don't have a new target because there is a higher probability that we are near the top now than the probability of 6 months ago. I'm still long, but hedged.

Economists say it takes 18 to 36 months for the money from Quantitative Easing to start affecting the economy. QEII wrapped out near the end of Obama's second term. We are starting to see good job numbers. The U.S. started to experience a deep recession at the end of Bush's term and it carried over into Obama's term. Drastic measures were taken and disaster in the form of a depression, seems to have been avoided.

Given the momentum in the market last summer that continues today and all the money in the market from QEII, coupled with relatively low interest rates, and Trump's pro-business agenda, it is not surprising that we are starting to see good job numbers which should translate into good corporate earnings. The market seems headed higher with a greater probability than heading lower.

lamboguy
06-21-2017, 12:28 AM
I can't find my post from last July of 2016, but I predicted the market would rise by up to 15% by January 2017.

I made that same prediction a few years earlier. Both times I hit the target price, but it took about 6 months longer than I thought it would.

In July of 2016 I predicted S&P of 2457 by January 2017.

S&P closed at 2453.46 today -- June 20, 2017. That's pretty close to my prediction.

Unfortunately, I don't have a new target because there is a higher probability that we are near the top now than the probability of 6 months ago. I'm still long, but hedged.

Economists say it takes 18 to 36 months for the money from Quantitative Easing to start affecting the economy. QEII wrapped out near the end of Obama's second term. We are starting to see good job numbers. The U.S. started to experience a deep recession at the end of Bush's term and it carried over into Obama's term. Drastic measures were taken and disaster in the form of a depression, seems to have been avoided.

Given the momentum in the market last summer that continues today and all the money in the market from QEII, coupled with relatively low interest rates, and Trump's pro-business agenda, it is not surprising that we are starting to see good job numbers which should translate into good corporate earnings. The market seems headed higher with a greater probability than heading lower.these large company's were borrowing money at very cheap rates and used it to buy back their shares. less shares mean higher prices for the still existing ones. it was very smart of the large corporations to take advantage of the low rates. but now some company's will be up to their eyeballs in debt and should the interest rates happen to increase they might be in jeopardy of not being able to service the debt. if that does happen they might have to dilute their shares and do secondary offerings. but also some of these company's became ultra monsters like Amazon, Google, Apple and lots of other large ones and they may not have a problem paying back no matter how high the rates may go.

its just interesting how the markets went up so high and there really isn't to much fundamentally that will drag it down for now outside of the unknown which always shows up at some point of time.

highnote
06-26-2017, 03:28 AM
these large company's were borrowing money at very cheap rates and used it to buy back their shares. less shares mean higher prices for the still existing ones. it was very smart of the large corporations to take advantage of the low rates. but now some company's will be up to their eyeballs in debt and should the interest rates happen to increase they might be in jeopardy of not being able to service the debt. if that does happen they might have to dilute their shares and do secondary offerings. but also some of these company's became ultra monsters like Amazon, Google, Apple and lots of other large ones and they may not have a problem paying back no matter how high the rates may go.

its just interesting how the markets went up so high and there really isn't to much fundamentally that will drag it down for now outside of the unknown which always shows up at some point of time.

Another factor is that many companies don't pay out as much in dividends the way they used to. This money has to be put to work. If it is plowed back into the company this will increase the price of shares.

I don't know to what extent not paying dividends increase the share price, but I do know it has to be greater than zero if the company is at the very least making some profit.

lamboguy
06-26-2017, 07:49 AM
Amazon just took over Whole Foods, it looked like they paid a lot but to them it doesn't make any difference. they will figure out how to market the food better, increase their margins and knock out other food stores. Whole Foods might control 3% of the total market, Amazon will get it up to 10% somehow.

any business that has to compete with Amazon is in hot water. for the first time last week i ordered something from Amazon other than a book because they were the only place that i could find the product that i wanted. they couldn't give me an exact shipping date but promised me that i will have it between July 15 and August 1. no place else wanted to take the order.

PaceAdvantage
06-26-2017, 11:21 AM
Went long around 10am @ 2446.25
Stop @ 2437

Down about 2 points as I type this...so it's not redboarding at the moment...:lol:

barn32
06-26-2017, 11:44 AM
Amazon just took over Whole Foods, it looked like they paid a lot but to them it doesn't make any difference. they will figure out how to market the food better, increase their margins and knock out other food stores. Whole Foods might control 3% of the total market, Amazon will get it up to 10% somehow.

any business that has to compete with Amazon is in hot water. for the first time last week i ordered something from Amazon other than a book because they were the only place that i could find the product that i wanted. they couldn't give me an exact shipping date but promised me that i will have it between July 15 and August 1. no place else wanted to take the order.AMZN picked up the Whole Foods distribution network which they were going to have to build anyway. AMZN paid ~13.6 billon for WFM, and the analysis I saw said they would have to lay out about 6 billion to build their own distribution network, so in essence they got WFM for 6 billion.

It's win/win for AMZN. Their stock went up on the takeover because it's such an all around big positive for them, and it's usually the other way around.

PaceAdvantage
06-26-2017, 11:46 AM
Went long around 10am @ 2446.25
Stop @ 2437

Down about 2 points as I type this...so it's not redboarding at the moment...:lol:And just like that this trade is kaput...

Got stopped out for a loss of 9.25 points...ouch!

PaceAdvantage
06-27-2017, 10:36 AM
Just went long @ 2431.25 stop @ 2421.50

PaceAdvantage
06-27-2017, 02:39 PM
Stop hit @ 2426.50 for a loss of 4.75 points

AltonKelsey
06-27-2017, 02:47 PM
Nice to see you moved your stop, but for the thousands following along, how would they know. It's like Nitro's Tote action plays !

What do you do, trail 10 points when it moves higher?

PaceAdvantage
06-27-2017, 02:55 PM
Nice to see you moved your stop, but for the thousands following along, how would they know. It's like Nitro's Tote action plays !

What do you do, trail 10 points when it moves higher?Yeah, I know...Nitro always gives a detailed account of how much he made or lost...:pound:

Sorry I wasn't posting my trailing stop in real time.

incoming
06-27-2017, 03:12 PM
Yeah, I know...Nitro always gives a detailed account of how much he made or lost...:pound:

Sorry I wasn't posting my trailing stop in real time.

curious...are you using a trailing stop or a manual stop.

PaceAdvantage
06-27-2017, 03:19 PM
curious...are you using a trailing stop or a manual stop.Always set a trailing stop on entry...right now it's around 10 points but it can vary based on volatility...

incoming
06-27-2017, 03:29 PM
Always set a trailing stop on entry...right now it's around 10 points but it can vary based on volatility...

OK...all of my research as shown trailing stops are always more profitable. I use wide % stops and regulate my position sizes well within my risk tolerances.

AltonKelsey
06-27-2017, 03:30 PM
actually 10 points in this market is pretty wide. if things got crazy , what would you set it to? 15, 20 .... seems like a lot

incoming
06-27-2017, 03:38 PM
actually 10 points in this market is pretty wide. if things got crazy , what would you set it to? 15, 20 .... seems like a lot

I trade fx ...I'm not familiar with indices swings. 3% is my most popular #

PaceAdvantage
06-27-2017, 03:41 PM
actually 10 points in this market is pretty wide. if things got crazy , what would you set it to? 15, 20 .... seems like a lotMy stop has approached 20 in the past...

AltonKelsey
06-27-2017, 03:55 PM
I trade fx ...I'm not familiar with indices swings. 3% is my most popular #


and with fx leverage, what % of the account would that be?

incoming
06-27-2017, 04:09 PM
and with fx leverage, what % of the account would that be?

I use Kelly...1/4 to full, depending on situation.

Parkview_Pirate
06-27-2017, 06:46 PM
Yellen: Banks 'very much stronger'; another financial crisis not likely 'in our lifetime'

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/yellen-banks-very-much-stronger-another-financial-crisis-not-likely-in-our-lifetime.html

Yellen added that the Fed learned lessons from the financial crisis and is being more vigilant to find risks to the system.

"I think the system is much safer and much sounder," she said. "We are doing a lot more to try to look for financial stability risks that may not be immediately apparent but to look in corners of the financial system that are not subject to regulation, outside those areas in order to try to detect threats to financial stability that may be emerging."

Grandma is channeling her inner Irving Fisher, and apparently is not very good at math or history. I read this, and laughed.:D

Now I'm going to go hide under my bed....:eek:

reckless
06-28-2017, 11:05 PM
Yellen: Banks 'very much stronger'; another financial crisis not likely 'in our lifetime'

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/yellen-banks-very-much-stronger-another-financial-crisis-not-likely-in-our-lifetime.html



Grandma is channeling her inner Irving Fisher, and apparently is not very good at math or history. I read this, and laughed.:D

Now I'm going to go hide under my bed....:eek:

The risks to this booming and expected stock market rally and the very profitable major banks are... Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve.

sour grapes
06-29-2017, 08:23 AM
The risks to this booming and expected stock market rally and the very profitable major banks are... Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve.

nothing wrong with raising dividend and adding buybacks with plenty of capital on the balance sheets.add in less regulation under trump and just maybe we could get back to 3% growth without the noose around the banks neck.

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2017, 10:36 AM
Long @ 2436.50 stop @ 2426

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2017, 11:05 AM
Looks like this trade is going to be a stinker too...stop @ 2426.50

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2017, 11:16 AM
A quick and brutal death...lost 10 points...long is not the place to be right now it looks...:(

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2017, 11:21 AM
Of course, now that I've been stopped out, the market will turn around and go back up...:pound:

barn32
06-29-2017, 11:22 AM
A quick and brutal death...lost 10 points...long is not the place to be right now it looks...:(Was fortunate enough to be long GS and C overnight for a quick windfall. I'm also short bonds, but what tech stocks I have left are of course getting crushed.

Bought QQQ puts for a partial hedge. Tech is bringing everything down. Not the place to be I'm afraid.

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2017, 11:25 AM
Yeah...just noticed Nasdaq futures are down 81 points...here we go again...

barn32
06-29-2017, 11:37 AM
Yeah...just noticed Nasdaq futures are down 81 points...here we go again...The day before yesterday I got the feeling everyone was running for the hills vis a vis tech stocks. NQ down 105. Then yesterday we had the reversal. NQ up 80? I thought that reversal was just too good to be true, so I dumped a lot of stuff, but still held on to some big losers. They were so far under water I had nowhere left to go with them but to hope for an even bigger turn around.

I had high hopes yesterday was the beginning of even more upside, but I was very skeptical. Like I said, the banks saved me.

I mean if we come back from this yet one more time I don't know what to say.

90% of the money in the big tech stocks are the institutions. When they quit putting more money in and start rotating out then they have to correct.

Parkview_Pirate
06-29-2017, 02:58 PM
The risks to this booming and expected stock market rally and the very profitable major banks are... Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve.

Depends on your point of view, and whether you believe the market boom was created/enabled by the Fed, or some other factor(s).

Who can forget Jim Cramer complaining "they know nothing!" followed by crowing about the Fed "has got your back" back in 2007/2008? He was one, like many others, who firmly believed (and still does) that the Federal Reserve actually has control over the economy. I would argue that the Fed has influence over availability to debt, and their actions over the last 10 years have simply been to prolong the party versus making any fundamental changes to actually address the larger issue. And that, in a nutshell, is trying to convert the economies of the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, from that of expansion to contraction. Until the immense amounts of bad debt are flushed from the system, and the economy is allowed to adjust to contraction, the pain will continue.

IMHO, we'll soon discover the Federal Reserve to be no more effective in "fixing" the disintegrating economy in the next decade than they were in battling the Great Depression back in the 1930s. Their mission right now is to position the banks and the 1% to get through the crisis with some assets left. In other words, unless you're a banker or an elitist, "the Fed does NOT have your back...."

Parkview_Pirate
06-29-2017, 03:04 PM
Long @ 2436.50 stop @ 2426

I was expecting more of a bounce at 2436.50 myself, where I have a Fib line drawn. Was short overnight and cashed out for some beer money, but didn't expect this plunge today, with the holiday on deck and all.

Looks like 2402.25 was the place to get long (at least for a short term bounce), which was not any significant level in my charting - though the RSIs on the shorter time frames were screaming OVERSOLD! We'll see if it holds.

When 2250 or so breaks, then things get interesting, as the long-term uptrend will be busted.

PaceAdvantage
06-29-2017, 03:05 PM
Would have been sweet to be short at 2436.50 this morning...:lol::(

lamboguy
06-29-2017, 03:13 PM
i am watching the gold market and think it might have hit a bottom today even though the dollar is down and gold has been floundering. the Yen looks like its picking up some strength and that is the main reason why i am bullish today.

(i am a long term bull on the metal)

Parkview_Pirate
06-29-2017, 03:45 PM
Would have been sweet to be short at 2436.50 this morning...:lol::(

If this bounce carries back up to 2436.50 before close tomorrow, I'll be getting back on the short side....for sure.:popcorn:

reckless
06-29-2017, 10:16 PM
i am watching the gold market and think it might have hit a bottom today even though the dollar is down and gold has been floundering. the Yen looks like its picking up some strength and that is the main reason why i am bullish today.

(i am a long term bull on the metal)

If you're trading gold, I'd look at how the 10 year Treasury rate is doing. If rates inch up, it will hurt the price of gold; and the inverse, lower rates means higher gold prices.

lamboguy
06-30-2017, 11:23 AM
If you're trading gold, I'd look at how the 10 year Treasury rate is doing. If rates inch up, it will hurt the price of gold; and the inverse, lower rates means higher gold prices.it truly is one of the factor's that would influence dollar price of gold. but i am more of a supply and demand type guy figuring that whatever is or is going to take place with rates are already baked into the price. the way i look at it, someone always knows something more than myself and they know it way before i do.

reckless
07-01-2017, 06:53 AM
it truly is one of the factor's that would influence dollar price of gold. but i am more of a supply and demand type guy figuring that whatever is or is going to take place with rates are already baked into the price. the way i look at it, someone always knows something more than myself and they know it way before i do.

Like yourself, I feel that in all my buy/sell decisions there are always way more people who know a lot more than I do, which is especially why I stay away from short term style trading.

With gold, I have many other concerns, such as... is it a currency or a commodity? How much gold is actually out there? About these gold-related ETFs... I don't trust those bankers and brokers that peddle and manage them.

Good luck with your trading.

lamboguy
07-01-2017, 10:14 AM
my best example is a hypothetical one. lets say you found a mansion to live in, its coast over $2 million to build. not only do you not have to pay for the house, but they will pay you $3000 a month to live in it. the only problem is the place borders on a nuclear hazarardous waste site. Are you going to want to live there?

with anything that trades, the price always comes down to supply and demand. in the precious metals market the demand for them always out weighs any other factor because supply never changes. back in 1980 the prime rate was 18% and gold went to all time highs back then.

AltonKelsey
07-01-2017, 02:55 PM
I think a little something called inflation (a old phenomenon , rarely seen here today) was rampant and gold was considered a hedge. So of course gold rose as rates rose in response to the inflation rate.

http://www.theforeverrose.com/media/gold-roses/24k-gold-rose.jpg

lamboguy
07-01-2017, 03:36 PM
even back almost 40 years when gold was flying here, it didn't have as big a gain in other parts of the world.

gold has long been an insurance policy and nothing more or less to unknown factors that come up in this world. during ww11 the jewish people that had gold were able to get out of germany, the ones that had german currency went to the concentration camps.

i know that the cryptocurrencies are flying these days. but i wonder how they will do compared to gold if one really needs it to save his life. Bitcoin has gone from under .10 cents to as high as $3000 this century. gold has only been a 4 bagger against us dollar. the underlying issue plays out that there is something wrong coming down the pike. gold should never move that much if we lived in a stable world.

Parkview_Pirate
07-06-2017, 01:45 AM
even back almost 40 years when gold was flying here, it didn't have as big a gain in other parts of the world.

gold has long been an insurance policy and nothing more or less to unknown factors that come up in this world. during ww11 the jewish people that had gold were able to get out of germany, the ones that had german currency went to the concentration camps.

i know that the cryptocurrencies are flying these days. but i wonder how they will do compared to gold if one really needs it to save his life. Bitcoin has gone from under .10 cents to as high as $3000 this century. gold has only been a 4 bagger against us dollar. the underlying issue plays out that there is something wrong coming down the pike. gold should never move that much if we lived in a stable world.

If one is banking on inflation, gold makes some sense - but all we've seen so far is "stag-flation", with only certain items rising in price, and wages remaining relatively stagnant. It's also odd that Western banks don't seem too interested in gold, and in spite of a couple of runs towards $1300, gold is currently range bound. It may take a war to break out of it.

Lots of stories about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the news these days. Bitcoin never passed the smell test for me, but I didn't realize the inherent deflationary tendencies it has, if Denninger is right:

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=232141

Also, if you read the comments, it turns out the cryptocurrencies aren't very green either - using quite a bit of electricity for mining.....

AltonKelsey
07-06-2017, 05:04 PM
Is denninger ever right? seriously, I know who he is , but my gut tells he's me he's usually 100% wrong.

lamboguy
07-06-2017, 06:11 PM
If one is banking on inflation, gold makes some sense - but all we've seen so far is "stag-flation", with only certain items rising in price, and wages remaining relatively stagnant. It's also odd that Western banks don't seem too interested in gold, and in spite of a couple of runs towards $1300, gold is currently range bound. It may take a war to break out of it.

Lots of stories about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the news these days. Bitcoin never passed the smell test for me, but I didn't realize the inherent deflationary tendencies it has, if Denninger is right:

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=232141

Also, if you read the comments, it turns out the cryptocurrencies aren't very green either - using quite a bit of electricity for mining.....the grain prices have been exploding without to much demand for them. however oil looks awful now.

so as far as inflation goes you have some mixed signals. in any event i am not making my decisions on gold based on other commodities, inflation or lack of. i am simply looking into the supply and demand curve and trying to figure out where the inflection points are.

since i have called the bottom on gold it has dropped almost $40 vs. the us dollar. its gone down almost every day for a month now on very light contract volume. this makes me wrong so far but i am not in a panic mode because i buy physical metals.

AltonKelsey
07-06-2017, 10:11 PM
Is denninger ever right? seriously, I know who he is , but my gut tells he's me he's usually 100% wrong.

I should amend that , I haven't read him in quite a while, too many other sites, and just forget to. I recall liking most of his stuff when I did read. Think I confused him with some market pundit who is rarely right.

reckless
07-06-2017, 10:18 PM
I should amend that , I haven't read him in quite a while, too many other sites, and just forget to. I recall liking most of his stuff when I did read. Think I confused him with some market pundit who is rarely right.

Alton, is it Jim Cramer? Nate Silver?

AltonKelsey
07-06-2017, 10:48 PM
No, Cramer is past his due date.

There are a pack of permabears that are right once every century or so.

PaceAdvantage
07-07-2017, 11:46 AM
Just went long @ 2416.50 with stop @ 2405

PaceAdvantage
07-07-2017, 12:53 PM
stop moved to 2411.25

PaceAdvantage
07-07-2017, 01:35 PM
Stop moved to 2413

PaceAdvantage
07-07-2017, 02:46 PM
Stop to 2413.75

PaceAdvantage
07-07-2017, 05:01 PM
Got a reversal signal at 4pm...closed long @ 2422.75 and am now short @ 2422.75 with a stop @ 2433 lol

PaceAdvantage
07-07-2017, 05:15 PM
Exited the short @ 2422.75 so lost commission only there...

Profit for the day = 6.25 points

Tape Reader
07-08-2017, 11:19 AM
Got a reversal signal at 4pm...closed long @ 2422.75 and am now short @ 2422.75 with a stop @ 2433 lol

You took this trade knowing that you had to exit at the close, as you customarily do. Why? Does your system tell you that that last 15-minutes can produce that much value?

AltonKelsey
07-09-2017, 09:55 PM
You took this trade knowing that you had to exit at the close, as you customarily do. Why? Does your system tell you that that last 15-minutes can produce that much value?

Just saw this.

Any system can produce a signal at anytime, as long as you're using a timeframe small enough . 1m, 5m 15m etc.

That said, I'm surprised you'd act on an ES signal so late in the day, for a new trade.

imo, only a highly specialized system designed for that exact period would make sense, anything else would probably give pretty random results. But you have the stats so, maybe you see it as a good play.

PaceAdvantage
07-10-2017, 06:11 PM
You took this trade knowing that you had to exit at the close, as you customarily do. Why? Does your system tell you that that last 15-minutes can produce that much value?It's profitable, and has been over the many years tested, so I take it...is it hugely profitable? No. Could I chuck it and continue on whole? Yes. But why throw away money?

I had another "4pm" one today that I failed to post (it was the only trade today). Made a 1/2 point.

Call me a redboarder...:lol:

Tape Reader
07-10-2017, 06:37 PM
It's profitable, and has been over the many years tested, so I take it...is it hugely profitable? No. Could I chuck it and continue on whole? Yes. But why throw away money?

I had another "4pm" one today that I failed to post (it was the only trade today). Made a 1/2 point.

Call me a redboarder...:lol:

The reason that I was asking was that I was curious about that “15-minute period.” I also have tested zillions of systems. “Sometimes” when the SPY is closed and the ES and options are still open, you can see some big moves in that 15-minute period. Nice trading!

PaceAdvantage
07-10-2017, 06:40 PM
Very, very rarely though...It's usually a snooze-fest and when it does move, it usually finds its way back to where it was at 4pm half the time anyway...

But like I said, I studied it, and it's profitable the way I do it, so I'll continue to take the signals until I see otherwise.

AltonKelsey
07-11-2017, 01:41 PM
Hope you didn't get caught in that downdraft

PaceAdvantage
07-12-2017, 02:43 PM
Nope...didn't have any trades yesterday...I average 2-3 trades a week at most...once went two weeks without a trade recently (within the last couple of months)...

It's definitely not a traditional day trading method...other than I never go home with an open position.

incoming
07-12-2017, 05:50 PM
curious...do you have enough data to measure effectiveness of your signal in different times of day. I would guess that a signal registered between 11:30-2:00 would be suspect.... using a short time frame.

Tape Reader
07-12-2017, 07:39 PM
curious...do you have enough data to measure effectiveness of your signal in different times of day. I would guess that a signal registered between 11:30-2:00 would be suspect.... using a short time frame.

Just curious, why would a “signal” coming at a particular time of day be suspect?

incoming
07-13-2017, 03:15 AM
[QUOTE=Tape Reader;2194495]Just curious, why would a “signal” coming at a particular time of day be suspect?[/QUOTE

Volume.... signals received during the first two hours and the last two hours that the markets are open generally are a lot stronger indicators.

PaceAdvantage
07-14-2017, 09:26 AM
curious...do you have enough data to measure effectiveness of your signal in different times of day. I would guess that a signal registered between 11:30-2:00 would be suspect.... using a short time frame.I've tested a whole bunch of time intervals during the trading day...certain days of the week...like I said in a prior post, Tue-Thur are the most profitable, Wed & Thu the most profitable...Monday & Friday the least...

There were no time intervals that were that bad to throw out, so all times from 9:30-4:00pm are open for trading for me...I do get a trade right at 4pm now and again...it's been profitable overall...not much, as you can expect, but enough to keep it in the mix.

I am always out at 4: 14:50....

incoming
07-14-2017, 12:18 PM
I've tested a whole bunch of time intervals during the trading day...certain days of the week...like I said in a prior post, Tue-Thur are the most profitable, Wed & Thu the most profitable...Monday & Friday the least...

There were no time intervals that were that bad to throw out, so all times from 9:30-4:00pm are open for trading for me...I do get a trade right at 4pm now and again...it's been profitable overall...not much, as you can expect, but enough to keep it in the mix.

I am always out at 4: 14:50....

Thanks for the recap. Not surprised that my research for profitable days follows your finding. I only used daily candles always on individual stocks. I used 1 hour candles for entries and exits. I'm a Bollinger Band disciple.
GOOD LUCK!!:ThmbUp:

AltonKelsey
07-14-2017, 05:04 PM
you missed u couple of good am long entries this week . bull market you know.

maybe system needs tweaking for the new paradigm

highnote
07-14-2017, 05:33 PM
Fascinating market as of late. Where is the top? VIX is in record low territory.

I initiated an option spread trade on an interesting company -- Zynerba Pharmaceuticals.

I bought Aug17 calls with a $10 strike for $11.28 and sold Aug17 calls with a $15 strike for $8.62.

My max profit is about $230 per contract. It can rise to infinity and the profit will be $230.

The stock can fall to $12.60 before losses occur -- a 33% drop -- and the max loss is about $230.

If it closes above the $15 strike the annualized return is over 900%.

The pharmaceutical and biotech stocks are volatile! They can double in price in a day if a new drug is approved. They can also take a nosedive on bad news.

This is a one month trade. Usually, I go 3 to 6 months on this type of trade, but given the volatility of the industry, the shorter the trade period the less chance there is of encountering a black swan.

PaceAdvantage
07-14-2017, 05:47 PM
you missed u couple of good am long entries this week . bull market you know.

maybe system needs tweaking for the new paradigmSomething tells me you're not serious with this reply. Because if you are, then you have much to learn. Or you're the one exception to the rule, and you CATCH EVERY MOVE...congrats!

Not losing money is almost as good as making money...almost...

AltonKelsey
07-14-2017, 08:35 PM
Something tells me you're not serious with this reply. Because if you are, then you have much to learn. Or you're the one exception to the rule, and you CATCH EVERY MOVE...congrats!

Not losing money is almost as good as making money...almost...


Well aware of the latter.

I was eyeballing the charts, but a lot of the moves except for today, came overnight , so there wasnt a whole lot of meat on the bone intraday.

Why not share some of your method, without giving it all away. Otherwise its like Nitro, all black box.

AltonKelsey
07-14-2017, 08:52 PM
ZYNE

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/14/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-stock-zy.aspx

I possess no knowledge of the efficacy of these studies . Do you have an opinion on it, or just figure it probably wont tank below 12

I wouldn't focus too much on annualized return , when the downside is also 900%

What's the annualized return on the 20 second Huntress Helena place bet that paid 2.20?

highnote
07-14-2017, 09:10 PM
ZYNE

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/14/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-stock-zy.aspx

I possess no knowledge of the efficacy of these studies . Do you have an opinion on it, or just figure it probably wont tank below 12


I read a bunch of articles and looked at historical prices of ZYNE and I am betting that it won't tank below 12. The chances that it stays about 12 seem greater than the chances it falls below 12, but I don't have empirical data to back that up.

I did a small study of 20 stocks from April 15 that were "system" trades like this one. Most of them were biotechs or high tech. 2 out of 20 fell 50% in 4 months. 1 fell about 20%. 2 traded at about the same price and the other 15 were up anywhere from about 10% to 90%. 17 out of 20 were profitable trades. Now, we also are in the late stages of a bull market. I'm betting the bull still has some legs.

I wouldn't focus too much on annualized return , when the downside is also 900%

That's a good point. I also use the downside breakeven point as a screening tool, as well as looking at the fundamental data -- especially the percentage of float that is short.

I was looking at a stock yesterday (AAOI) that has almost 50% of it's float shorted -- at it has had a strong run up recently -- up $6 today!. Not sure when people started shorting it, but a $6 jump in one day can't feel good to the shorts.

AltonKelsey
07-15-2017, 12:26 AM
I'm sure you realize the IV on these is one of the highest in the entire market. a 50% down move (or up) would be nothing.

highnote
07-15-2017, 01:26 AM
I'm sure you realize the IV on these is one of the highest in the entire market. a 50% down move (or up) would be nothing.

A 50% move upwards would be great for my trade. A 50% move downward would cause a loss, but not a devastating one. The last time ZYNE was at 12 -- my downside breakeven point on the trade -- was last November. It could fall to 12 in a day, but I estimate the chances of that happening as small -- maybe 5%? A 5 or 6 point fall has a much greater chance of happening and that would put me near the breakeven point, but would still produce a profit. The stock has been advancing lately so I'm playing it long into August. Things will probably get busier in the markets in September, but I will long since have exited by then.

The IV of the ZYNE options range from 1.00 to 8.00.

For comparison, Alphabet's ranges from 0.14 to is about 0.50. While SCYX is 34.50!

ZYNE is a piker compared to SCYX. :D

I am not an expert in the theory of implied volatility, but I do know that implied volatilities are derived from actual transactions and therefore they might not behave as predicted by the particular statistical model that was used to make them.

Black and Scholes only considers the option's price at expiration and therefore does not accurately price American options. I remember studying B&S many years ago in an investment class in college. Even then I knew it's use was limited for my purposes.

The Binomial Model might be better for my purposes because I look at what the option will sell at given the probability of the stock moving to a certain price. I don't calculate option IV using a Binomial Model. I more or less do it intuitively, kind of the same way I estimate the odds of a horse when I only have DRF. That said, I would like to formalize my usage of a binomial model.

I know that ZYNE can be a volatile stock, but that volatility, as you most likely are aware, is what gives it premium. I assume the risk premium exists in ZYNE because it is a high IV option. However, short-dated options are less sensitive to IV than long-dated options. This is the reason I chose to trade options on ZYNE that expire in 5 weeks rather than in 5 months.

The spread trade I did is with options where the underlying is deep-in-the-money. The IV would be different than for at-the-money or out-of-the-money options. The series of options I traded are lightly traded.

Also, in these high IV options there is a good likelihood of reversion to the mean occurring. By selling the high IV options I can capture some of that reversion.

There is a lot to consider other than just IV.

highnote
07-15-2017, 01:49 AM
Also, since the crash of '87, traders have been factoring in more volatility in the B&S model for deep-in-the-money and deep-out-of-the-money options. They learned their lesson the hard way and are now pricing in a greater likelihood of downside movement than B&S originally had.

But this has also created a skew and these predictions of larger downside moves are not always correct.

So it pays to do fundamental analysis or use a fundamental factor model to help estimate the range of movements a stock can make during a given time period.

In my case, I'm betting the movement is more likely to be to the upside, but if I'm wrong, I've got plenty of cushion to the downside. And if I'm totally wrong, the loss will be less than I've lost betting on a single horse race. :D

lamboguy
07-15-2017, 01:51 AM
The IV of the ZYNE options range from 1.00 to 8.00.

For comparison, Alphabet's ranges from 0.14 to is about 0.50. While SCYX is 34.50!

ZYNE is a piker compared to SCYX. :D

I am not an expert in the theory of implied volatility, but I do know that implied volatilities are derived from actual transactions and therefore they might not behave as predicted by the particular statistical model that was used to make them.

Black and Scholes only considers the option's price at expiration and therefore does not accurately price American options. I remember studying B&S many years ago in an investment class in college. Even then I knew it's use was limited for my purposes.

The Binomial Model might be better for my purposes because I look at what the option will sell at given the probability of the stock moving to a certain price. I don't calculate option IV using a Binomial Model. I more or less do it intuitively, kind of the same way I estimate the odds of a horse when I only have DRF. That said, I would like to formalize my usage of a binomial model.

I know that ZYNE can be a volatile stock, but that volatility, as you most likely are aware, is what gives it premium. I assume the risk premium exists in ZYNE because it is a high IV option. However, short-dated options are less sensitive to IV than long-dated options. This is the reason I chose to trade options on ZYNE that expire in 5 weeks rather than in 5 months.

Also, in these high IV options there is a good likelihood of reversion to the mean occurring. By selling the high IV options I can capture some of that reversion.i knew Fisher Black very well, he used to come over my house with his 2 daughters
to hangout at my swimming pool. at that time he was a professor at Sloanes School of Business before he caved in and went to NYC to work for Goldman Sachs. boy i can't believe how fast time really fly's, i remember those days so well and they took place in the early 80's!

i used to ask him since he came up with the formula to price options, he must be able to beat the game, he replied its impossible!

i also knew Myron Schoales, he also came from my area and went out to Stanford. i stayed at his house and he told me he had a scam to beat the markets. 5 years later he bankrupted his company and cleaned out the people that invested in it called Long Term Capital. he almost took down this whole country and had to be bailed out by the taxpayers here.

i had to throw that in because these guys had immortality, and i was a complete bum that only knew how to hustle to earn a living.

i learned an important message from these 2 very brilliant men. no one person is bigger than the market itself, and the market is always the final arbitrator for anything.

highnote
07-15-2017, 02:04 AM
i knew Fisher Black very well, he used to come over my house with his 2 daughters
to hangout at my swimming pool. at that time he was a professor at Sloanes School of Business before he caved in and went to NYC to work for Goldman Sachs. boy i can't believe how fast time really fly's, i remember those days so well and they took place in the early 80's!

i used to ask him since he came up with the formula to price options, he must be able to beat the game, he replied its impossible!

i also knew Myron Schoales, he also came from my area and went out to Stanford. i stayed at his house and he told me he had a scam to beat the markets. 5 years later he bankrupted his company and cleaned out the people that invested in it called Long Term Capital. he almost took down this whole country and had to be bailed out by the taxpayers here.

i had to throw that in because these guys had immortality, and i was a complete bum that only knew how to hustle to earn a living.

i learned an important message from these 2 very brilliant men. no one person is bigger than the market itself, and the market is always the final arbitrator for anything.

That's a great story! How did you come to know Black?

I was just reading Ed Thorp's biography. He has some interesting stories about Black. Thorp developed an option pricing model a few years before Black and Scholes. Because they were all academics, they communicated back and forth about the options pricing formulations. Thorp was using his formulations to make hundreds of millions of dollars. Due to economic's public relations, the Black and Scholes model bears their name and they won the Noble Prize.

Nassim Taleb has called the B&S formula the Bachelier-Thorp formula.

lamboguy
07-15-2017, 04:59 AM
That's a great story! How did you come to know Black?

I was just reading Ed Thorp's biography. He has some interesting stories about Black. Thorp developed an option pricing model a few years before Black and Scholes. Because they were all academics, they communicated back and forth about the options pricing formulations. Thorp was using his formulations to make hundreds of millions of dollars. Due to economic's public relations, the Black and Scholes model bears their name and they won the Noble Prize.

Nassim Taleb has called the B&S formula the Bachelier-Thorp formula.at the time i was unhappily married living in Lexington, Fisher's x wife and 2 kids lived about 2 blocks away. he became friendly with my x-wife, and became even more friendly with her and started coming over the house quite often, lots of times without the kids. Fisher was a nerd and a very interesting nerd. he was everything that i wasn't and 100 times smarter than myself.
that theory wound up getting the Nobel Prize in economics later on after Fisher passed away, his family never received the prize, but he was the brains behind it.

barn32
07-15-2017, 06:27 AM
I initiated an option spread trade on an interesting company -- Zynerba Pharmaceuticals.

I bought Aug17 calls with a $10 strike for $11.28 and sold Aug17 calls with a $15 strike for $8.62.

My max profit is about $230 per contract...and the max loss is about $230.

With $5 wide strikes (not counting commissions) the max profit is $234 and the max loss is $266.


Edward Thorp's 20% Annual Return for 30 Years
(https://www.forbes.com/sites/prestonpysh/2017/03/13/edward-thorp-blackjack-beat-the-dealer/#39deb6de13de)

AltonKelsey
07-15-2017, 02:00 PM
Tell Thomas Peterffy (google it) , (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Peterffy)

that it was impossible to beat the game back in the good old days.

Those that can do, those that can't , teach. Literally.

AltonKelsey
07-15-2017, 02:03 PM
"The IV of the ZYNE options range from 1.00 to 8.00. "


Huh?

highnote
07-15-2017, 04:28 PM
that theory wound up getting the Nobel Prize in economics later on after Fisher passed away, his family never received the prize,

Nobel prize is only given to living people.

highnote
07-15-2017, 04:31 PM
With $5 wide strikes (not counting commissions) the max profit is $234 and the max loss is $266.

That sounds correct. Commissions are about $6.50 each way.


Edward Thorp's 20% Annual Return for 30 Years
(https://www.forbes.com/sites/prestonpysh/2017/03/13/edward-thorp-blackjack-beat-the-dealer/#39deb6de13de)

I just finished reading his biography. Very interesting book. I also dug out an old copy of his "Beat The Market" and re-read it. That is what got me thinking about trading options again using spreads and hedges. When "Beat The Market" was published options weren't even traded on exchanges. That was in the mid 1960s. Things have sure changed.

highnote
07-15-2017, 04:37 PM
"The IV of the ZYNE options range from 1.00 to 8.00. "


Huh?

If Agilent has an IV of about 0.33 and ZYNE has an IV ranging from 1 to 8 then ZYNE is 3 to 24 times as volatile as Agilent.

(I think I mistakenly referred to Alphabet when I actually meant Agilent in an earlier post. I was looking in my files of implied volatility at stock symbol "A", which is Agilent, not Alphabet.)

AltonKelsey
07-15-2017, 10:30 PM
Not sure where you're getting your terminology from, but IV is expressed as a percent like 35% 300%, etc.


No one compares one stock to another in terms of IV unless they are trading pairs.


The IV on any other stock is irrelevant.


PS The iv on ZYNE is near 300% , right up there in the top 5 of all stocks. Looks like they are pricing a double or carnage. Doesn't meant they have to be right.

highnote
07-15-2017, 11:10 PM
Not sure where you're getting your terminology from, but IV is expressed as a percent like 35% 300%, etc.


No one compares one stock to another in terms of IV unless they are trading pairs.


The IV on any other stock is irrelevant.


PS The iv on ZYNE is near 300% , right up there in the top 5 of all stocks. Looks like they are pricing a double or carnage. Doesn't meant they have to be right.

Sorry. I should have been clearer. I thought you understood that 0.33 is the same as 33%, 1.00 is the same as 100%, and 8 is the same as 800%.

On the one hand you say that ZYNE is near 300%, right up there in the top 5 of all stocks, but on the other hand, you say no one compares one stock to another in terms of IV...

Not sure what you're saying... :confused:

highnote
07-15-2017, 11:48 PM
Looks like they are pricing a double or carnage.

Most of the stocks my system finds have a lot of premium. Those tend to be technology or biotech stocks.

Every once in a while a stock like Herballife is spotted by my system. Makes for interesting trading. :D

Here is a list of recent finds:


Symbol StockPrice Code Expiration SellStrike
Symbol StockPrice Code Expiration Buy_Strike
AAOI 84.2 AAOI170915C00070000 09/15/2017 70
AAOI 84.2 AAOI170915C00065000 09/15/2017 65
AAOI 84.2 AAOI171215C00065000 12/15/2017 65
AAOI 84.2 AAOI171215C00060000 12/15/2017 60
AAOI 84.2 AAOI171215C00070000 12/15/2017 70
AAOI 84.2 AAOI171215C00060000 12/15/2017 60
AAOI 84.2 AAOI180119C00060000 01/19/2018 60
AAOI 84.2 AAOI180119C00055000 01/19/2018 55
AAOI 84.2 AAOI180119C00065000 01/19/2018 65
AAOI 84.2 AAOI180119C00055000 01/19/2018 55
AAOI 84.2 AAOI180119C00070000 01/19/2018 70
AAOI 84.2 AAOI180119C00055000 01/19/2018 55
ALXN 126.71 ALXN180119C00110000 01/19/2018 110
ALXN 126.71 ALXN180119C00105000 01/19/2018 105
AXON 24.28 AXON171215C00017500 12/15/2017 17.5
AXON 24.28 AXON171215C00015000 12/15/2017 15
AXON 24.28 AXON171215C00020000 12/15/2017 20
AXON 24.28 AXON171215C00015000 12/15/2017 15
AZO 506.31 AZO180119C00420000 01/19/2018 420
AZO 506.31 AZO180119C00410000 01/19/2018 410
LITE 63.8 LITE171215C00055000 12/15/2017 55
LITE 63.8 LITE171215C00050000 12/15/2017 50
MOMO 41.37 MOMO180119C00035000 01/19/2018 35
MOMO 41.37 MOMO180119C00030000 01/19/2018 30
MZOR 41.79 MZOR171117C00035000 11/17/2017 35
MZOR 41.79 MZOR171117C00030000 11/17/2017 30
NFLX 161.12 NFLX171215C00140000 12/15/2017 140
NFLX 161.12 NFLX171215C00135000 12/15/2017 135
NFLX 161.12 NFLX180119C00140000 01/19/2018 140
NFLX 161.12 NFLX180119C00135000 01/19/2018 135
NUGT 29.1 NUGT171215C00020000 12/15/2017 20
NUGT 29.1 NUGT171215C00015000 12/15/2017 15
NVDA 164.95 NVDA171117C00135000 11/17/2017 135
NVDA 164.95 NVDA171117C00130000 11/17/2017 130
NVDA 164.95 NVDA171117C00140000 11/17/2017 140
NVDA 164.95 NVDA171117C00130000 11/17/2017 130
NVDA 164.95 NVDA180119C00130000 01/19/2018 130
NVDA 164.95 NVDA180119C00125000 01/19/2018 125
NVDA 164.95 NVDA180119C00135000 01/19/2018 135
NVDA 164.95 NVDA180119C00125000 01/19/2018 125
NVDA 164.95 NVDA180119C00140000 01/19/2018 140
NVDA 164.95 NVDA180119C00125000 01/19/2018 125
PI 52.62 PI180119C00045000 01/19/2018 45
PI 52.62 PI180119C00040000 01/19/2018 40
PTLA 62.42 PTLA180119C00050000 01/19/2018 50
PTLA 62.42 PTLA180119C00045000 01/19/2018 45
SHOP 92.41 SHOP171020C00080000 10/20/2017 80
SHOP 92.41 SHOP171020C00075000 10/20/2017 75
SHOP 92.41 SHOP180119C00080000 01/19/2018 80
SHOP 92.41 SHOP180119C00075000 01/19/2018 75
SVXY 170.22 SVXY180119C00130000 01/19/2018 130
SVXY 170.22 SVXY180119C00125000 01/19/2018 125
TDOC 35.45 TDOC180119C00030000 01/19/2018 30
TDOC 35.45 TDOC180119C00025000 01/19/2018 25
TSLA 327.78 TSLA171117C00285000 11/17/2017 285
TSLA 327.78 TSLA171117C00280000 11/17/2017 280
TSLA 327.78 TSLA180119C00250000 01/19/2018 250
TSLA 327.78 TSLA180119C00240000 01/19/2018 240
TSLA 327.78 TSLA180119C00280000 01/19/2018 280
TSLA 327.78 TSLA180119C00270000 01/19/2018 270
VEEV 64.25 VEEV180119C00055000 01/19/2018 55
VEEV 64.25 VEEV180119C00050000 01/19/2018 50
WB 74.31 WB180119C00060000 01/19/2018 60
WB 74.31 WB180119C00055000 01/19/2018 55
YY 63.79 YY180119C00050000 01/19/2018 50
YY 63.79 YY180119C00045000 01/19/2018 45
YY 63.79 YY180119C00055000 01/19/2018 55
YY 63.79 YY180119C00045000 01/19/2018 45

AltonKelsey
07-16-2017, 12:47 AM
It's really quite simple. The IV of the options of ZYNE or AAPL or any other stock , really have nothing to do with one another.

You can make a list of High to Low IV and get an idea of which stocks are expected to be more or less volatile, but at the end of the day, there's no connection to each other.


So ZYNE at 300 vol is what it is , no matter where it sorts on the list.


Another point , the July IV is meaningless and low, as the test results are not expected to happen before that expire.


300 is the number for august and beyond.


The Aug straddle is priced at $12, stocks 19.50

This can easily tank below 10 if the results fail.

highnote
07-16-2017, 01:24 AM
Another point , the July IV is meaningless and low, as the test results are not expected to happen before that expire.

300 is the number for august and beyond.

I'm using an IV of about 140%.

300 is why I didn't do the Sept spread. This trade would appear to get significantly riskier the farther out you go.



The Aug straddle is priced at $12, stocks 19.50

This can easily tank below 10 if the results fail.

I agree it can easily tank. But it's just as risky to buy the Aug straddle because the stock might not make a big move until September. The loss on the straddle would be greater than the spread if the stock doesn't move by Aug expiration. In fact, there would be no loss on the spread if the stock doesn't move by Aug.

It might be the case that the Aug straddle will prove to be a better bet, but based on my analysis I prefer the Aug spread.

ReplayRandall
07-18-2017, 02:37 AM
China just had a 'Black Monday'

REUTERS/Aly Song

Stocks plummeted across China on Monday, with 500 stocks hitting their 10% daily limit and 1,200 falling 7%, according to the South China Morning Post.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china...-monday-2017-7 (http://www.businessinsider.com/china-just-had-a-black-monday-2017-7)

NOT TO WORRY, THIS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON US MARKETS, AS USUAL...:lol:

PaceAdvantage
07-21-2017, 11:53 AM
Finally got a signal...

Long ES @ 2465.75 stop @ 2458.25

won't be around to update...trail stop once it gets above 2467.50....

It's moving the wrong way at the moment...

PaceAdvantage
07-22-2017, 02:48 AM
ended up closing at EOD for gain of 3.75 pts

Parkview_Pirate
07-22-2017, 06:19 AM
I should amend that , I haven't read him in quite a while, too many other sites, and just forget to. I recall liking most of his stuff when I did read. Think I confused him with some market pundit who is rarely right.

Denninger, like many perma-bears including myself, took it on the chin with his predictions back in 2009 concerning the collapse of the economy. He no longer provides an annual list of predictions, starting off with the scoring of the previous year's. In the early days of his site (2007-2009), he'd have a daily video reviewing the markets, but that went by the wayside long ago.

He has "wound down" his site considerably, and now is focused on health care blowing up the economy, with the occasional rant on internet security, Facebook being evil, and hiking. He just has one remaining forum section open, and still wields the ban hammer early and often for those that disagree with him.

I learned a lot about charting following his site, and his over-the-top emotional rants didn't bother me too much, like it did with some of my friends. He brought numbers to the table, which is something many in the financial industry don't do, and I still agree with his basic thesis of how the fraud and racketeering in the financial sector will come to a head some day.

Charles Hugh Smith had a nice post a couple of days ago about how this isn't your grandfather's market, nor even your father's. Kinda scary when you actually stop consuming for a moment, and think about it....

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly17/financialization7-17.html

Each new policy destroys another level of prudent fiscal/financial discipline.
The discipline of sound money? Gone.
The discipline of limited leverage? Gone.
The discipline of prudent lending? Gone.
The discipline of mark-to-market discovery of the price of collateral? Gone.
The discipline of separating investment and commercial banking, i.e. Glass-Steagall? Gone.
The discipline of open-market interest rates? Gone.
The discipline of losses being absorbed by those who generated the loans? Gone.
And so on: every structural source of discipline has been eradicated, weakened or hollowed out. Financialization has consumed the nation's seed corn, and the harvest of instability is ripening in the fields of finance and the real economy alike.

PaceAdvantage
07-27-2017, 11:30 AM
Just went short ES @ 2478.75 trailing stop @ 2488.75

PaceAdvantage
07-27-2017, 12:52 PM
stop moved to 2487.25...not moving in the right direction currently...:bang:

AltonKelsey
07-27-2017, 01:49 PM
stop moved to 2487.25...not moving in the right direction currently...:bang:


lol, that was practically a flash crash .

PaceAdvantage
07-27-2017, 01:50 PM
Stop moved to 2484...that was a nice break downward...but of course, coming back up a bit...

AltonKelsey
07-27-2017, 01:55 PM
We're testing a MAJOR support trendline here on the daily. Could this be the crack in the dam? or will the bots come back in to buy the trend

PaceAdvantage
07-27-2017, 01:58 PM
Stop moved to 2181.25 and it's definitely moving my way now...:jump: