S&P Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop moved to 2479.25...typo on my prior post...I'm all excited...:lol:

[AltonKelsey]

Stop moved to 2181.25 and it's definitely moving my way now...:jump:


2465 line in the sand on this . Not sure why you'd give back 10 points, but its your system


looks like a tech only selloff

[PaceAdvantage]

This isn't even a minor move...but it looks big given the range has been horrible the last few days...:lol::lol::lol:

Big fat tail on the last 5min bar...I hate those...

[PaceAdvantage]

2465 line in the sand on this . Not sure why you'd give back 10 points, but its your systemYes it is.

[AltonKelsey]

2465 coming right up

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop moved to 2477.75...it's all gravy from here on out

[PaceAdvantage]

Another long tail...

[AltonKelsey]

2465 's we have a winner! two winners!

Id cover here in the 63's but Im a whimp

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop to 2475.25...now it gets interesting

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop to 2473.75....

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop to 2471.50

[PaceAdvantage]

Another big fat tail...but I think this thing still has some life left in it...

[PaceAdvantage]

After that last 5 min bar, I would say this thing is absolute toast...this could be a killer trade

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop moved to 2469

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop to 2467.75

[ReplayRandall]

Stop to 2467.75

Dude, this is a fun ride to watch.....Anti-mush force-field is in effect..$$$

[PaceAdvantage]

Latest 5min bar was all green and was large enough to spell disaster already...:lol:

I may only end up with a 10 point gain or so...that would be disappointing.

[AltonKelsey]

I always cover too soon, but NEVER too late.

[PaceAdvantage]

My guess is I'll be stopped out before 2pm and it will plunge the rest of the day....:rolleyes:

[ReplayRandall]

My guess is I'll be stopped out before 2pm and it will plunge the rest of the day....:rolleyes:

It was fun while it lasted....Teased you, but finally stopped out...Good job.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not stopped out yet...stop is 2467.75

[PaceAdvantage]

Hoping 2465 is the new resistance...:lol:

[ReplayRandall]

Hoping 2465 is the new resistance...:lol:

Got 65, let's keep going...

[AltonKelsey]

Not really wanting to do free consulting, but a 10 pt giveback after major support has been reached makes zero sense to me.

Sort of like leaving out a Linda Rice first turf off the claim in the pick 6


But congrats on the nice entry.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't need consulting...one trade does not make or break anything...Jesus...there is no such thing as perfection...it's the sum total of everything at the end of the year that counts.

And btw, I came within 1 tick of getting stopped out...but still alive.

[AltonKelsey]

Ok, wont say anymore about it. You seem to be doing fine.

[PaceAdvantage]

Stopped out at 2467.75 for a gain of 11 points

[PaceAdvantage]

Now it can finally crash hard

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok, wont say anymore about it. You seem to be doing fine.Oh, and btw, sorry for snapping at you. When you're in the middle of a trade, using a methodology you've developed, the last thing you want to hear is how you're kind of messing things up at the moment...:lol:

Since I don't base my entries or exists on long term support or resistance, but rather, in a way, a much shorter term support/resistance, I'm not sure how much good it would do me to change my exit methodology based on long term established support/resistance...and in reality, I got out fewer than 3 pts away from your 2465 number...

Anyway, just wanted to apologize.

[Tape Reader]

Stop moved to 2479.25...typo on my prior post...I'm all excited...:lol:

Pisser! Honest! Great trade!

[AltonKelsey]

That's ok, I get the stress of being in the trade is not an ideal time to discuss tactics.

I posted that my wimp exit would have been 2463, it sliced through 2465 so fast there was no need to cover there. And then continued down much farther , proving it was whimpy indeed.


Just seems to me that 10 ES points , in this current environment is too much room to give it. Yep , you'll bank if you catch a crash day when it closes on the low. But those are few and far between as you know.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just went short @ 2468.25 with trailing stop @ 2478

[PaceAdvantage]

REVERSE! Just closed my short @ 2467 and went long @ 2467 with a new trailing stop @ 2457.25

+1.25 points books so far...lol

[PaceAdvantage]

Just REVERSED AGAIN...closed long @ 2464.5 and went short @ 2464.5 with stop @ 2475

Looks like I might be in a very rare whipsaw day for me...:lol:

-1.25 points total so far booked

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop moved to 2472.75

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop moved to 2472.25...that last 5 min bar was terrible for me...seems they really want to hold 2462...that was pretty bad for me IMO...but who knows...

[PaceAdvantage]

Exited short @ 4:14 :50 @ 2470 for a total loss of 6.75 points on the day

[reckless]

The two quotes below was just lifted from drudge's home page.

JULY JOBS: +209,000... Record 153,513,000 Employed...
Strength... GREAT AGAIN: Trade deficit drops...

GREENSPAN: IT'S ABOUT TO BURST

Here's the link to this story by an over-rated Fed Chair, who missed all the economic and stock market inflection points during his too long career. If he wasn't married to washed up TV celebrity, he'd be totally ignored.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html

I do hope the speculators jump all over this silly piece and knock the market down a few points. There's still time left to catch the wave in these early stages of our generational buying opportunity. In five years 22,000 DJIA will look like pennies and dimes, I promise you.

I know all you Trump haters and doom and gloomers just might go along with Greenspan's thoughts. For that I say, I hope so, and thank you all.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/buttons/green/viewpost.gif (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2195696#post2195696)
ZYNE
The Aug straddle is priced at $12, stocks 19.50

This can easily tank below 10 if the results fail.



Trading at 6.33 today 8/7/2017

[Saratoga_Mike]

The two quotes below was just lifted from drudge's home page.



Here's the link to this story by an over-rated Fed Chair, who missed all the economic and stock market inflection points during his too long career. If he wasn't married to washed up TV celebrity, he'd be totally ignored.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/greenspan-bond-bubble-about-to-break-because-of-abnormally-low-interest-rates.html

I do hope the speculators jump all over this silly piece and knock the market down a few points. There's still time left to catch the wave in these early stages of our generational buying opportunity. In five years 22,000 DJIA will look like pennies and dimes, I promise you.

I know all you Trump haters and doom and gloomers just might go along with Greenspan's thoughts. For that I say, I hope so, and thank you all.

First, you know my thoughts on Trump, so I'd prefer not to go down that path. I like your stock markets posts. The markets seems very expensive, to me, whether you look at mkt cap to GDP, EV/EBITDA or a CAPE. I know you pick individual stocks, but you seem to have a strong value bent. Therefore, I'm surprised you aren't concerned by the valuation of the overall mkt.

Totally agree with you on Greenspan - best to ignore him regardless of the topic, imo.

[reckless]

First, you know my thoughts on Trump, so I'd prefer not to go down that path. I like your stock markets posts. The markets seems very expensive, to me, whether you look at mkt cap to GDP, EV/EBITDA or a CAPE. I know you pick individual stocks, but you seem to have a strong value bent. Therefore, I'm surprised you aren't concerned by the valuation of the overall mkt.

Totally agree with you on Greenspan - best to ignore him regardless of the topic, imo.

Hey Mike ... first off, I never, ever let my political feelings interfere with the other parts of my life with other posters. Others do towards me, it seems, but I could live with that.

Awhile back, I posted on here around the time of my 'now famous' generational buying opportunity that specifically asked you guys not to let one's political or personal hatred towards Trump stop you from investing. I meant it then and I mean it now. We are far, far away from a market top or bubble land. Don't allow the vidiots on business TV scare you off when there are some very cheap, financially sound, and growing companies still available to buy and hold.

A couple of times in the past 2-3 years I mentioned Apple as the best stock to own ... it was in the middle 80s when I said this. It's almost doubled since then, and it doubled in the middle of a daily constant harrangue by stock gurus on TV calling for the world to end! I read the other day Apple has $200 billion in cash on hand ... unbelievable. Plus, while cash on hand is a liability to a growing company just wait until Apple is able to bring $100 + billion at least back home to invest and pay dividends. In a matter of months it's becomes a $200-225 stock.

My bullishness comes from the fact I invest solely in individual stocks. And I own 20-25 stocks that are still very, very cheap, and way below their intrinsic value. The portfolio of stocks I have purchased over the years --many, many years-- is 'safe' as I see it, much more safe and way less expensive than the overall market.

Those who invest in ETFs, mutual funds, and stock options are very much at risk. The biggest risk to these investors are headline risk. The ETFs are way more expensive, relatively speaking, than any individual companies that I own, even though my big stocks are major components of those same ETFs.

Yes, I know, a complete market meltdown will hurt all stocks, including mine. But, Mike, I don't see any compelling reason for a complete market meltdown now or in the very near future.

Good luck, now and always.

[highnote]

Good points. :ThmbUp:

Hey Mike ... first off, I never, ever let my political feelings interfere with the other parts of my life with other posters. Others do towards me, it seems, but I could live with that.

Awhile back, I posted on here around the time of my 'now famous' generational buying opportunity that specifically asked you guys not to let one's political or personal hatred towards Trump stop you from investing. I meant it then and I mean it now. We are far, far away from a market top or bubble land. Don't allow the vidiots on business TV scare you off when there are some very cheap, financially sound, and growing companies still available to buy and hold.

A couple of times in the past 2-3 years I mentioned Apple as the best stock to own ... it was in the middle 80s when I said this. It's almost doubled since then, and it doubled in the middle of a daily constant harrangue by stock gurus on TV calling for the world to end! I read the other day Apple has $200 billion in cash on hand ... unbelievable. Plus, while cash on hand is a liability to a growing company just wait until Apple is able to bring $100 + billion at least back home to invest and pay dividends. In a matter of months it's becomes a $200-225 stock.

My bullishness comes from the fact I invest solely in individual stocks. And I own 20-25 stocks that are still very, very cheap, and way below their intrinsic value. The portfolio of stocks I have purchased over the years --many, many years-- is 'safe' as I see it, much more safe and way less expensive than the overall market.

Those who invest in ETFs, mutual funds, and stock options are very much at risk. The biggest risk to these investors are headline risk. The ETFs are way more expensive, relatively speaking, than any individual companies that I own, even though my big stocks are major components of those same ETFs.

Yes, I know, a complete market meltdown will hurt all stocks, including mine. But, Mike, I don't see any compelling reason for a complete market meltdown now or in the very near future.

Good luck, now and always.

[jms62]

Hey Mike ... first off, I never, ever let my political feelings interfere with the other parts of my life with other posters. Others do towards me, it seems, but I could live with that.

Awhile back, I posted on here around the time of my 'now famous' generational buying opportunity that specifically asked you guys not to let one's political or personal hatred towards Trump stop you from investing. I meant it then and I mean it now. We are far, far away from a market top or bubble land. Don't allow the vidiots on business TV scare you off when there are some very cheap, financially sound, and growing companies still available to buy and hold.

A couple of times in the past 2-3 years I mentioned Apple as the best stock to own ... it was in the middle 80s when I said this. It's almost doubled since then, and it doubled in the middle of a daily constant harrangue by stock gurus on TV calling for the world to end! I read the other day Apple has $200 billion in cash on hand ... unbelievable. Plus, while cash on hand is a liability to a growing company just wait until Apple is able to bring $100 + billion at least back home to invest and pay dividends. In a matter of months it's becomes a $200-225 stock.

My bullishness comes from the fact I invest solely in individual stocks. And I own 20-25 stocks that are still very, very cheap, and way below their intrinsic value. The portfolio of stocks I have purchased over the years --many, many years-- is 'safe' as I see it, much more safe and way less expensive than the overall market.

Those who invest in ETFs, mutual funds, and stock options are very much at risk. The biggest risk to these investors are headline risk. The ETFs are way more expensive, relatively speaking, than any individual companies that I own, even though my big stocks are major components of those same ETFs.

Yes, I know, a complete market meltdown will hurt all stocks, including mine. But, Mike, I don't see any compelling reason for a complete market meltdown now or in the very near future.

Good luck, now and always.

I also think the new version of the watch allowing talking will be well received