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View Full Version : Scratches and their impact


mickey_arnold
03-05-2016, 11:26 AM
Looking for some opinions about scratches and their effect on how the race plays out from the standpoint, particularly, of pace scenario and strategy of the connections.

Always wondered about the many possibilities, for example, how the number of scratches, field size and the changed composition of pace styles, actually affects the running of the race and final results. Plus any stats that reflect some of the possibilities, though it would seem a very difficult task.

mickey_arnold
03-05-2016, 12:21 PM
You can think you can definitely throw class of the current race and "class" of the individual competitors into the scenario mix.

Capper Al
03-07-2016, 02:54 PM
Scratches can and do effect pace. Before a scratch an early horse might not have been able to get a hold of an early lead, for example. Handicapping software and spreadsheets should be able to recalculate after scratches.

Capper Al
03-07-2016, 04:49 PM
Something I always wanted to follow were trainers whose horses were scratched by the vet. Thinking it might be a good guess for a tie breaker in a claiming race.

HalvOnHorseracing
03-07-2016, 06:29 PM
Something I always wanted to follow were trainers whose horses were scratched by the vet. Thinking it might be a good guess for a tie breaker in a claiming race.

I've watched the state vet do pre-race examinations. They aren't comprehensive, so a scratch would have to indicate an obvious issue. It's always possible for a horse to develop a little bit of a fever or some soreness in the time since it was last checked by the trainer, but I would think if a trainer has multiple instances of horses being vet scratches that would be a red flag.

Capper Al
03-07-2016, 07:49 PM
I've watched the state vet do pre-race examinations. They aren't comprehensive, so a scratch would have to indicate an obvious issue. It's always possible for a horse to develop a little bit of a fever or some soreness in the time since it was last checked by the trainer, but I would think if a trainer has multiple instances of horses being vet scratches that would be a red flag.

I'd like to follow it someday.