My look at the Friday BC races

[PaceAdvantage]

Friday, October 30
---------------------

BC Juvenile Turf
:3: Manhattan Dan 4/1
:7: Ray's The Bar 5/1
:12: Camelot Kitten 6/1
:13: Cymric 6/1

Pace setup favors :7: & :12: . Biggest value plays here are :3: & :7: .

BC Dirt Mile
:3: Liam's Map 4/1
:5: Lea 7/1
:8: Wicked Strong 7/1
:1: Red Vine 9/1
:4: Mr. Z 13/1
:7: War Envoy 15/1

Anyone who thinks ANY of these BC races are going to be easy needs to reassess. Liam's Map isn't that good and can be beaten, although his early pace advantage will make that a little tough to overcome. But I bet these types of races for the reason . . . big boxcar payoffs and lots of value, so I'm going to stick to value horses in here: :4: & :7: .

BC Juvenile Filly Turf
:10: Illuminate 9/2
:4: Catch a Glimpse 5/1
:9: Nemoralia 8/1
:5: Ruby Notion 5/1
:15: Time and Motion 10/1
:12: Gliding By 12/1

This is another wide open fast paced event. When in doubt stick to the pure value plays, which in here are: :15: & :12:

BC Distaff
:10: Yahilwa 3/1
:5: Calamity Kate 7/1
:7: Wedding Toast 8/1
:14: Sheer Drama 12/1
:1: I'm a Chatterbox 15/1
:4: Stopchargingmaria 15/1
:8: Curalina 15/1

I'm sure this line is way out of whack, but it's served me well in these types of races. Going with the value (as always): :10: & :5: .

[ronsmac]

Friday, October 30
---------------------

BC Juvenile Turf
:3: Manhattan Dan 4/1
:7: Ray's The Bar 5/1
:12: Camelot Kitten 6/1
:13: Cymric 6/1

Pace setup favors :7: & :12: . Biggest value plays here are :3: & :7: .

BC Dirt Mile
:3: Liam's Map 4/1
:5: Lea 7/1
:8: Wicked Strong 7/1
:1: Red Vine 9/1
:4: Mr. Z 13/1
:7: War Envoy 15/1

Anyone who thinks ANY of these BC races are going to be easy needs to reassess. Liam's Map isn't that good and can be beaten, although his early pace advantage will make that a little tough to overcome. But I bet these types of races for the reason . . . big boxcar payoffs and lots of value, so I'm going to stick to value horses in here: :4: & :7: .

BC Juvenile Filly Turf
:10: Illuminate 9/2
:4: Catch a Glimpse 5/1
:9: Nemoralia 8/1
:5: Ruby Notion 5/1
:15: Time and Motion 10/1
:12: Gliding By 12/1

This is another wide open fast paced event. When in doubt stick to the pure value plays, which in here are: :15: & :12:

BC Distaff
:10: Yahilwa 3/1
:5: Calamity Kate 7/1
:7: Wedding Toast 8/1
:14: Sheer Drama 12/1
:1: I'm a Chatterbox 15/1
:4: Stopchargingmaria 15/1
:8: Curalina 15/1

I'm sure this line is way out of whack, but it's served me well in these types of races. Going with the value (as always): :10: & :5: .Liam's Map has a 20% chance of winning but somehow Yahilwa has a 25% chance. This has got to be some kind of joke.

[Dahoss2002]

Manhattan Dan and Bradester are my 2 LS picks for Friday

[NorCalGreg]

Manhattan Dan and Bradester are my 2 LS picks for Friday

I have your 2 in tri's hoss....my 3 LS's I'm keying on are Conquest Daddyo, Lea, and My Sweet Addiction.

Thanks for your work up, P.A. --I put a couple of your value plays to use :ThmbUp:
good luck all

[ebcorde]

is battle scarred with 30 starts. James Cassidy squeezed all the juice out of him.

[depalma113]

My picks with my value lines

Race 6:

:5: Highland Sky 15/1
:7: Ray's the Bar 15/1
:4: Shogun 8/1
:6: Birchwood 5/1

Race 7:

:2: Bradester 5/1
:5: Lea 8/1

Race 8

:10: Illuminate 5/2
:3: Alice Springs 5/1
:14: Last Waltz 8/1

Race 9

:7: Wedding Toast 5/2

Pick Four plays

:5: :7: :4: :6: :13: :14: / :2: :5: / :10: :3: :14: / :7:

:5: :7: :4: :6: / :3: / :10: :3: :14: / :12: :14: :6: :9:

[PaceAdvantage]

Liam's Map has a 20% chance of winning but somehow Yahilwa has a 25% chance. This has got to be some kind of joke.The last time someone wrote me this, Keen Ice won the Travers...or was it when Take Charge Brandi won last year?

I can't recall all the times in the last few years someone has called my lines a joke and then ended up with egg on their face and nowhere to be found after the race was over...

But thanks for your constructive criticism...you'd think I'd be past this after the success I've had in the big races here, but I guess not...

But I'm sure if I really throw up a goose egg this year, you'll be the first back here to tell me you told me so... :lol:

[EMD4ME]

The last time someone wrote me this, Keen Ice won the Travers...or was it when Take Charge Brandi won last year?

I can't recall all the times in the last few years someone has called my lines a joke and then ended up with egg on their face and nowhere to be found after the race was over...

But thanks for your constructive criticism...you'd think I'd be past this after the success I've had in the big races here, but I guess not...

You are correct PA!

So, who is your official BCC pick? I understand this is a Friday selections thread. Will you post it in another thread?

[JBmadera]

good insight, thanks much!

looks like my pick 4's are going to cost about a billion dollars so I'm going to need to take a stand somewhere.....maybe single Ruby Notion, love blinkers off

[ManU918]

The last time someone wrote me this, Keen Ice won the Travers...or was it when Take Charge Brandi won last year?

I can't recall all the times in the last few years someone has called my lines a joke and then ended up with egg on their face and nowhere to be found after the race was over...

But thanks for your constructive criticism...you'd think I'd be past this after the success I've had in the big races here, but I guess not...

But I'm sure if I really throw up a goose egg this year, you'll be the first back here to tell me you told me so... :lol:

I was at a bar last Sunday for the Eagles game and I heard some guy talking about how much he loved Yahilwa. You weren't in South Philly on Sunday by any chance were you? LOL

[ebcorde]

I was at a bar last Sunday for the Eagles game and I heard some guy talking about how much he loved Yahilwa. You weren't in South Philly on Sunday by any chance were you? LOL


you went out to watch that crap game? Had enough of Kelly and Bradford . Chip cannot beat the good teams

This card today is way too hard. 14-15 horse fields with very few throw outs. I've been to US, Euro web sites to gauge opinions and everybody has a different take except the Liam's map, Lea race.

How Lea is 7-1 when not long ago a co-favorite in a 10 million dollar race, to 7-1 in a 1 million dollar race. not complaining mind you.


And racingpost.com said Baffert was fuming at AP's exercise rider that he rode him too hard and too long I found nothing on the US sites about this.

[garyscpa]

you went out to watch that crap game? Had enough of Kelly and Bradford . Chip cannot beat the good teams

This card today is way too hard. 14-15 horse fields with very few throw outs. I've been to US, Euro web sites to gauge opinions and everybody has a different take except the Liam's map, Lea race.

How Lea is 7-1 when not long ago a co-favorite in a 10 million dollar race, to 7-1 in a 1 million dollar race. not complaining mind you.


And racingpost.com said Baffert was fuming at AP's exercise rider that he rode him too hard and too long I found nothing on the US sites about this.

Here's a link to that report:

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12874524&category=0

[EMD4ME]

And racingpost.com said Baffert was fuming at AP's exercise rider that he rode him too hard and too long I found nothing on the US sites about this.

Good find ebcorde.....

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12874524&category=0

AP will look like Funny Cide in the Belmont. Loose on lead and floundering under a drive at the 1/4. Then we'll hear about this right after the race as an excuse.

[dogkatcher]

Good find ebcorde.....

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12874524&category=0

AP will look like Funny Cide in the Belmont. Loose on lead and floundering under a drive at the 1/4. Then we'll hear about this right after the race as an excuse.


You truly are one sick puppy, maybe it's your goal to be miserable. DON'T enjoy one of the best days in racing, your not worthy.

[PaceAdvantage]

Then we'll hear about this right after the race as an excuse.Why not? You've got all your excuses all lined up should he actually win... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

You are correct PA!

So, who is your official BCC pick? I understand this is a Friday selections thread. Will you post it in another thread?The BCC is so WIDE OPEN for me, it's a little crazy. Frosted and Keen Ice look like the only two that might offer any value...but I have 4 or 5 horses pretty much evenly matched in terms of who can win...it's not an easy race.

AP has the big pace advantage though, so that elevates him a bit, but of course he won't be any kind of price. My top two contenders (nothing to do with value) are Honor Code and American Pharoah...

[Sparky13]

BC Juvenile :13: :8: :4: :11: :2:

BC Dirt Mile :5: :3: :8: :1: :2:

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf :3: :10: :2: :8: :4:

BC Distaff :1: :4: :14: :7: :12:

G2 Marathon :13: :9: :1: :7: :4:

[ebcorde]

Good find ebcorde.....

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12874524&category=0

AP will look like Funny Cide in the Belmont. Loose on lead and floundering under a drive at the 1/4. Then we'll hear about this right after the race as an excuse.


truthfully it messed my head up. now what to do? I will be listening to and reading the facial expressions of Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss.

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't give it a second thought...you really think something like that is going to kill the horse's chances after all the work and preparation they've put into winning this race?

I don't buy it...and I'm not going to worry about it...if AP loses, it won't be because of this...people worry too much about little things.

But maybe it's me...I've never understood the "fragility" aspect of thoroughbreds...even after all these years...

Unless this horse is actually injured, how does it take WEEKS for a horse to recover from a single race...even if it's a HARD race...I've never understood this line of thinking...

Here we have a half-ton+ animal...who is in the BEST SHAPE of their lives...and they need WEEKS to recover from a race that takes barely two minutes to run? Or their entire preparation is thrown off because an exercise rider went a little too fast or too far one morning?

I call bullshit...

[cj]

I call bullshit...

It's Bobby Frankel's fault. He started this BS by ducking and weaving and scratching to find the best spots. Others assumed it was the extra rest, not the placing, that led to his high win percentage and started copying the rest patterns.

[PaceAdvantage]

One reason it might not be bullshit...a reason I can hang my hat on...is if it's all the vet work that goes into these horses in terms of medication...things like Lasix take their toll...I can see that being a reason for needing extra downtime between races...lord knows what's being pumped into some of these horse's veins during their time "resting"

So if someone tries to tell me that's one of the reasons why weeks are needed to recover, I guess I might have to accept that line of reasoning.

[ronsmac]

The last time someone wrote me this, Keen Ice won the Travers...or was it when Take Charge Brandi won last year?

I can't recall all the times in the last few years someone has called my lines a joke and then ended up with egg on their face and nowhere to be found after the race was over...

But thanks for your constructive criticism...you'd think I'd be past this after the success I've had in the big races here, but I guess not...

But I'm sure if I really throw up a goose egg this year, you'll be the first back here to tell me you told me so... :lol:
If she wins by 5 it's still a bad line imo. Good luck.

[cj]

If she wins by 5 it's still a bad line imo. Good luck.

PAs line is for making bets. He isn't the morning line maker. If his line making process leads to profitable bets, that is all that matters.

[ReplayRandall]

Friday, October 30
---------------------

U]BC Distaff[/U]
:10: Yahilwa 3/1
:5: Calamity Kate 7/1
:7: Wedding Toast 8/1
:14: Sheer Drama 12/1
:1: I'm a Chatterbox 15/1
:4: Stopchargingmaria 15/1
:8: Curalina 15/1

I'm sure this line is way out of whack, but it's served me well in these types of races. Going with the value (as always): :10: & :5: .

On pure value alone, Yahilwa's the play...

[ReplayRandall]

Manhattan Dan and Bradester are my 2 LS picks for Friday

Strong value play----> Bradester.....

[ReplayRandall]

good insight, thanks much!

looks like my pick 4's are going to cost about a billion dollars so I'm going to need to take a stand somewhere.....maybe single Ruby Notion, love blinkers off

Looks like a single to me as well---->Ruby Notion

[PaceAdvantage]

If she wins by 5 it's still a bad line imo. Good luck.After you called my Travers line an April Fools joke, you'd figure you might refrain from comment...at least the next time out... :lol:

But no...you're doubling down...I like that

[PhantomOnTour]

I never disparage anyone's picks.
I may respectfully disagree, but to call someone else's opinion a joke or whatever just isn't good form, or good karma.

(except for Off Topic :lol: )

[Robert Fischer]

Post position could play a role in the Distaff.

[johnhannibalsmith]

No, not on the record, but for the record. The record of bad Breeder's Cup ideas. My first selection of the weekend in the Juvenile Turf...

:1: Dressed in Hermes - This is one of those races I find brutal to play year in and year out. Don't like to play pick bets because invariably I spread too much. Can't play a trifecta or super because I spread too much. Too many horses I can't make a case against every year, but always a small pile at odds that are so juicy I just can't avoid the race altogether. My recent approach seems to revolve around finding one of those, maybe two if the prices are big enough, and just tread lightly in the win pool hoping to build the bankroll early without decimating it early.

This son of Hat Trick has pretty much run against nothing. A maiden win in a bad stakes race after losing twice against maidens, but I like the career progress. I thought that last race was a big improvement off the maiden efforts and the run itself with blinkers off was promising. Janet Armstrong is hardly a household name but she's competent, spent a couple of years shadowing the great Mike Chambers around Turf Paradise and showed me she can get the best horse home. I was hoping for something more like 40-1 than the 20-1 M/L, but still think 20-1 is good enough to take a shot in a goofy race like this from the rail.

[PaceAdvantage]

Friday, October 30
---------------------

BC Juvenile Turf
:3: Manhattan Dan 4/1
:7: Ray's The Bar 5/1
:12: Camelot Kitten 6/1
:13: Cymric 6/1

Pace setup favors :7: & :12: . Biggest value plays here are :3: & :7: .Officially on :3: , :7: , :12: here

[PaceAdvantage]

Ol' 'Dan actually had me thinking I might pull off another shocker...but his rubber legs finally did me in at the end... :lol:

[Tor Ekman]

Friday, October 30
---------------------

BC Juvenile Turf
:3: Manhattan Dan 4/1
:7: Ray's The Bar 5/1
:12: Camelot Kitten 6/1
:13: Cymric 6/1



Damn, thought you had called another bomb there, :3: just hit the wall

[Tom]

BC Juvenile Turf
Manhattan Dan 4/1

45-1!
Man, I was rooting for ya in the stretch, PA.

[MNslappy]

PA, how many horses will you bet to win in a 14 horse field on Breeders Cup Day if your odds line says to bet them? Will you bet 3 or 4 horses to win in a single race on a day like today?

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes

[PaceAdvantage]

BC Dirt Mile
:3: Liam's Map 4/1
:5: Lea 7/1
:8: Wicked Strong 7/1
:1: Red Vine 9/1
:4: Mr. Z 13/1
:7: War Envoy 15/1Quick note to those whose heads might easily explode...I WILL be betting Mr. Z in this race... :eek: :lol:

[depalma113]

Quick note to those whose heads might easily explode...I WILL be betting Mr. Z in this race... :eek: :lol:

I will be playing Valid.

[PaceAdvantage]

There are a lot of horses I might be playing here if Liam's Map is ridiculously overbet...

[cj]

There are a lot of horses I might be playing here if Liam's Map is ridiculously overbet...

Well, he is currently 1-5.

[jettroofer]

WPS :8:
EB :1: :3: :5: :6: :8:
TRB :1: :3: :5: :6: :8:
TR :5: :8: / :1: :5: :8: / :1: :3: :4: :6: :7: UP AND BACK
SNEAKY LS BET: WPS :6:

[woodtoo]

:9: Tapiture with :1: :5:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Price on Liam Map is insane for a race that looks like it could be a meltdown. Going really, really light on the out of context horse War Envoy since he's 30-1 and I'm not completely positive that he either sucks or that he will get roasted by the pace.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm on :1: :4: :8: :11: for the guy who asked if I bet 3 or 4 horses in a race... :lol:

[MNslappy]

Thats a damn good horse

[PaceAdvantage]

Liam ran to his price, and then some...impressive win

[BettinBilly]

I boxed an Exacta With Liams Map and Lea and hit that. Unfortunately, the bet was minimal. Big bet to Place on Red Vine, but he came in third. I did have a bet on Liams Map to Win. I just had a feeling he was going to prevail.

I'm alive in the Pick 3.

[Simple Syrup]

That was the worst superfecta I have ever hit, or will ever hit. I played way too many combos for a result that mirrored the ML.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

BC Distaff
:10: Yahilwa 3/1
:5: Calamity Kate 7/1
:7: Wedding Toast 8/1
:14: Sheer Drama 12/1
:1: I'm a Chatterbox 15/1
:4: Stopchargingmaria 15/1
:8: Curalina 15/1

...

For the record, and I mean on the record this time, I made a pick three wager beginning in the juvy turf filly and just used your picks here for this leg. :lol: I promised I would do it at least once and had five of the same on my first pass through and figured this was the spot to take my shot at my best shot. Now show us those chops!

[Stillriledup]

Ol' 'Dan actually had me thinking I might pull off another shocker...but his rubber legs finally did me in at the end... :lol:

That was crazy! I was like PA going to shock the world again. I admit I didnt like that horse but he ran great, big try!

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe we'll all be trying to pronounce YAHILWA by the end of the day...

[PaceAdvantage]

BC Juvenile Filly Turf
:10: Illuminate 9/2
:4: Catch a Glimpse 5/1
:9: Nemoralia 8/1
:5: Ruby Notion 5/1
:15: Time and Motion 10/1
:12: Gliding By 12/1I conditional bet this race because I was away from the PC...I think I ended up betting every single horse on the list to win...nutty...maybe I'll break even? :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah...I broke even... :bang: :bang: :bang:

[BettinBilly]

Maybe we'll all be trying to pronounce YAHILWA by the end of the day...

:ThmbUp: Me too. But I've got Yahilwa on a value bet.

[BettinBilly]

StopChargingMaria. Yikes.

That race was like throwing darts at a board.

I got Stellar Wind to Place. Lost the rest. About even on that race.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... I made a pick three wager beginning in the juvy turf filly and just used your picks here for this leg. ...

Thanks for getting me through the middle leg... I honestly was on the fence with Stopchoppingmaria. Now for my single... a horse that was 20-1 on the M/L and opens at 2-1... :D

[rastajenk]

Battaglia just admitted on the Keeneland feed that his morning line was off, that he had limited information on Zambian Dream.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Battaglia just admitted on the Keeneland feed that his morning line was off, that he had limited information on Zambian Dream.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I couldn't quite understand it. I realize he hasn't much in the way of a real resume, but the race isn't exactly special and if nothing else he looks like one of the few that might actually really like the distance. About the only reason that I played the pick 3 at all was that out of all the races I though that Zambian might be the best play at the price... but I didn't really expect him to be anywhere near the 20-1 and figured the value might wind up being the multi-race approach to betting him.

[rastajenk]

Migliore just said that maybe the line was right. :D

[johnhannibalsmith]

Migliore just said that maybe the line was right. :D

:lol:

I said roughly the same thing at the half pole but with a lot more color.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, these four opening races of the BC proved a bust for me...hoping for better today!

[Track Phantom]

Battaglia just admitted on the Keeneland feed that his morning line was off, that he had limited information on Zambian Dream.

He did miss the obvious likely betting of Zambien Dream. I will say this, his morning lines are much better than a certain So. Cal. ML maker. It's great to see double digit morning lines on horses who have form. I CANNOT stand it when I see a morning line that has five runners at 6-1 and two more at 8-1.