Beat BRIS Prime Power rating

[Capper Al]

In all fairness, I was using BRIS figures to beat the BPP rating. A sampling from my last 140 races:

1. AMS fld hits-> 104
2. BPP hits-> 103
3. eff Swtz* fld hits-> 101
4. ML (Morning Line) hits-> 100

*Data grouped per Dave's book P&P 2012

[Capper Al]

In all fairness, I was using BRIS figures to beat the BPP rating. A sampling from my last 140 races:

1. AMS fld hits-> 104
2. BPP hits-> 103
3. eff Swtz* fld hits-> 101
4. ML (Morning Line) hits-> 100

*Data grouped per Dave's book P&P 2012

Forgot to mention that a hit is a winner from one of the top 3 selections.

[Dave Schwartz]

What about total return? Do you have those figures?

[Capper Al]

What about total return? Do you have those figures?

I wasn't follow those in this sample.

[whodoyoulike]

What about total return? Do you have those figures?

You were able to understand the original post?

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, I did. Is there an issue with my question?

Did it not make sense?

[whodoyoulike]

Yes, I did. Is there an issue with my question?

Did it not make sense?

Actually yours did, I just didn't follow post #1 or #2. I understand what total return is (in a general sense). I just don't know what CapperAl is writing about.

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - Oh. Now I get it.

He was saying that he handicapped 140 races and the top 3 had the winner those number of times.

[Robert Goren]

My limited research into Bris PP shows that a top rated horse who is also the favorite is only profitable at 3/5 or less and then only it is only barely profitable. The higher the odds such a horse goes off at the more money it loses. When it gets into the 5/2 range or higher, generally there is another horse in the race that worth a bet.

[Capper Al]

Yes, I did. Is there an issue with my question?

Did it not make sense?

I'm a mad man at coding these systems. I forge out never knowing exactly what I'll code next. My current interest was for a contest that I'm in for picking winners, not maximizing returns. I'm about half through my rewrite, and I want to play. So I built a quick pick spreadsheet using the data that I have. It seems to be working fine. Out of 15 cards we have 4 more to go, and I am in the lead.

[Capper Al]

LOL - Oh. Now I get it.

He was saying that he handicapped 140 races and the top 3 had the winner those number of times.

Yeap. Sorry for any confusion. I was just delighted that I beat out BPP. That's a high standard to match.

[Capper Al]

My limited research into Bris PP shows that a top rated horse who is also the favorite is only profitable at 3/5 or less and then only it is only barely profitable. The higher the odds such a horse goes off at the more money it loses. When it gets into the 5/2 range or higher, generally there is another horse in the race that worth a bet.

Thanks. My study isn't so focused.

[Capper Al]

MSW and MC didn't do as well for me. Out of 52 races, it came out as follows:

(Winner in top 3)

1. ML -- 41
2. Jky mPct -- 40
3. Jky wPct -- 39

BPP might of failed because of first time starters.