Its amazing how many want to rip Beyer

[Valuist]

I had googled an article about poking holes in baseball sabermetrics, but to my surprise, the article starts off with a diatribe ripping, who else? Andrew Beyer.
Kind of funny how this criticism basically says that Beyer says bet the highest Beyer. No mention of trips, of which he wrote a whole book on, explaining how figures are determined by trips. No mention of anything else. Again, this writer should stick to baseball.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/death-to-sabermetrics/

[thaskalos]

When did Beyer claim that "he could tell you with a 100% certainty which horse will win each race"? Shouldn't someone actually READ the book before he starts trashing its author?

[PhantomOnTour]

Was the article written tongue-in-cheek?
It's dated April Fool's Day 2011

[johnhannibalsmith]

Was the article written tongue-in-cheek?
It's dated April Fool's Day 2011

I'd say so. Pretty sure that is a cohort of FanGraphs and most of their editorializing is rooted in sabermetric analysis.

[dnlgfnk]

For sure. The combox gets it about April Fools'.

Yet, there are some truths to the satire. Rather than draft Hanley Ramirez as I would have in the second round (tough "trip" last year with injuries, weaker LA lineup...speculated "easier trip" this year with the Green Monster bandbox), I went with Robby Cano's FanGraphs projected offensive WAR of 14.1.

Still waiting into May on his 2nd hr...

[DeltaLover]

The writer of the article is clueless when it comes to speed figures and has no idea of Beyer's theories. Although I think that his figures are dated and better alternatives exist today, AB is one of the monumental figures of American Handicappers and his writings presented some of the most innovative and influential ideas around... Don't bother with this article, at least not with any of its references to horse racing, since the author does not seem to know much about it.

[cj]

The writer of the article is clueless when it comes to speed figures and has no idea of Beyer's theories. Although I think that his figures are dated and better alternatives exist today, AB is one of the monumental figures of American Handicappers and his writings presented some of the most innovative and influential ideas around... Don't bother with this article, at least not with any of its references to horse racing, since the author does not seem to know much about it.

I'm pretty sure this was pure satire, including the part about Beyer.

For all these reasons, and many more, we should stop using Sabermetrics as of this date, April 1, 2011.

[thaskalos]

If the readers are unsure whether a piece is satire or not...then the writer needs help with his craft.

[Tom]

Or the readers need help with their comprehension.;)

[thaskalos]

That too... :)

[Stillriledup]

When i hear the word "rip" i think of Cubs manager Lee Elia and his famous rant (you can hear it on youtube if you've never heard it before) and he uses "rip them bleepedy bleeps". :D

As far as Beyer getting "ripped" i never realized Andy had a lot of detractors, what's not to love?

[thaskalos]

If Beyer had a fan club, then I would be its president. The man is a bona fide legend...and the greatest ambassador that our game ever had. If there was no Andy Beyer...then there would be an urgent need to invent one. :ThmbUp:

[Saratoga_Mike]

When i hear the word "rip" i think of Cubs manager Lee Elia and his famous rant (you can hear it on youtube if you've never heard it before) and he uses "rip them bleepedy bleeps". :D

As far as Beyer getting "ripped" i never realized Andy had a lot of detractors, what's not to love?

While his number of detractors are far fewer than yours, they're still out there SRU.

[Stillriledup]

If Beyer had a fan club, then I would be its president. The man is a bona fide legend...and the greatest ambassador that our game ever had. If there was no Andy Beyer...then there would be an urgent need to invent one. :ThmbUp:

I know what you are saying. There's nothing not to like about him.

Cud3mLtldjs

[lansdale]

I had googled an article about poking holes in baseball sabermetrics, but to my surprise, the article starts off with a diatribe ripping, who else? Andrew Beyer.
Kind of funny how this criticism basically says that Beyer says bet the highest Beyer. No mention of trips, of which he wrote a whole book on, explaining how figures are determined by trips. No mention of anything else. Again, this writer should stick to baseball.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/death-to-sabermetrics/

Clearly a lame attempt at satire by a young 'moneyball' guy supposedly mimicking the voice of the aging fans who have ridiculed his approach to the game. I think the giveaway is the quote from a man who was set straight Joe McCarthy in 1936. Those still in doubt should take a look at the home page.

[castaway01]

When i hear the word "rip" i think of Cubs manager Lee Elia and his famous rant (you can hear it on youtube if you've never heard it before) and he uses "rip them bleepedy bleeps". :D

As far as Beyer getting "ripped" i never realized Andy had a lot of detractors, what's not to love?

For someone who posts constantly, you must not actually read what anyone else writes before getting your comments out there. We've had plenty of Beyer detractors, many of whom clearly didn't understand the first thing about how Beyer figures are even made.

Beyer is a pioneer and a very entertaining writer. His legacy is secure, but that all breeds jealousy, so you'll always have people who try to tear someone like that down.

[Capper Al]

Let's face it. Beyer numbers are the standard which all other numbers are judged by.

[thaskalos]

Let's face it. Beyer numbers are the standard which all other numbers are judged by.
There are better numbers out there, so, you can't call the Beyer figures the "standard". Beyer the man casts a much bigger shadow than just the numbers bearing his name.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

There are better numbers out there, so, you can't call the Beyer figures the "standard". Beyer the man casts a much bigger shadow than just the numbers bearing his name.

I've always subscribed to the theory that how a horse gets his final time is just as critical as the final time. Whatever you think of Beyer or his numbers, he should certainly be in everyone's list of top five handicapping writers.

[thaskalos]

I've always subscribed to the theory that how a horse gets his final time is just as critical as the final time. Whatever you think of Beyer or his numbers, he should certainly be in everyone's list of top five handicapping writers.
Frankly...I put Beyer right at the top of the handicapping writers list.

[cj]

Frankly...I put Beyer right at the top of the handicapping writers list.

Me too, and a Secretariat like Belmont gap back to second.

[thaskalos]

Me too, and a Secretariat like Belmont gap back to second.
:ThmbUp:
Find me another handicapping writer with the integrity to admit that he regularly loses money at Gulfstream and Saratoga. The way the other handicapping writers write...you would think that the racetrack is their personal ATM. :rolleyes:

[Stillriledup]

For someone who posts constantly, you must not actually read what anyone else writes before getting your comments out there. We've had plenty of Beyer detractors, many of whom clearly didn't understand the first thing about how Beyer figures are even made.

Beyer is a pioneer and a very entertaining writer. His legacy is secure, but that all breeds jealousy, so you'll always have people who try to tear someone like that down.

I admit, i didn't realize there were any detractors of Andy Beyer. I know people might think that the Beyer figs are something they don't use or don't believe in, but for Andy himself, i didn't realize he had a lot of haters or any haters for that matter.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Frankly...I put Beyer right at the top of the handicapping writers list.

I'd put Tom Ainslie on top, not necessarily because he wrote the best book but because he paved the path for the other writers. He was the first one to show there was a market for a well written, intelligent handicapping book. Even Andy Beyer said, all handicapping books can be divided into two categories. Before and after Tom Ainslie. I'd also put Mark Cramer on my list.

[thaskalos]

I'd put Tom Ainslie on top, not necessarily because he wrote the best book but because he paved the path for the other writers. He was the first one to show there was a market for a well written, intelligent handicapping book. Even Andy Beyer said, all handicapping books can be divided into two categories. Before and after Tom Ainslie. I'd also put Mark Cramer on my list.
Ainslie definitely deserves the credit for creating the market for the handicapping books...but Beyer was a cut above, IMO. Ainslie was addressing handicapping novices...and it isn't very difficult to impress a novice. Beyer's crowd was much more informed, and it required a higher level of sophistication...which Beyer provided in good measure. Plus...Beyer was in our midst...and we were able to hear him explain himself in a much more direct manner than Ainslie did.

Cramer also belongs on the list along with Ainslie...and I would also place James Quinn and Tom Brohamer there as well.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Ainslie definitely deserves the credit for creating the market for the handicapping books...but Beyer was a cut above, IMO. Ainslie was addressing handicapping novices...and it isn't very difficult to impress a novice. Beyer's crowd was much more informed, and it required a higher level of sophistication...which Beyer provided in good measure. Plus...Beyer was in our midst...and we were able to hear him explain himself in a much more direct manner than Ainslie did.

Cramer also belongs on the list along with Ainslie...and I would also place James Quinn and Tom Brohamer there as well.

There was a great period post-Beyer where we saw Mark Cramer, James Quinn, Dick Mitchell, Bill Quirin, and Steve Davidowitz put out multiple books on handicapping and betting. It was sort of the golden age of handicapping books.

I actually met Ainslie very late in his career. Very gracious man.

[thaskalos]

There was a great period post-Beyer where we saw Mark Cramer, James Quinn, Dick Mitchell, Bill Quirin, and Steve Davidowitz put out multiple books on handicapping and betting. It was sort of the golden age of handicapping books.

I actually met Ainslie very late in his career. Very gracious man.

Tom Ainslie...from his Complete guide to Thoroughbred Racing:

"If your mail resembles mine, then it often includes intriguing correspondence from persons unknown...who are promising to grant you untold riches in exchange for a scant $20 bill. They have discovered handicapping systems, they say, which are able to unearth longshot winners after only five minutes of 'work'...and they would like to share their good fortune with you. Five minutes and you get a longshot. Five months...and you get an eviction notice."

How can you not like this guy? :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

Tom Ainslie...from his Complete guide to Thoroughbred Racing:

"If your mail resembles mine, then it often includes intriguing correspondence from persons unknown...who are promising to grant you untold riches in exchange for a scant $20 bill. They have discovered handicapping systems, they say, which are able to unearth longshot winners after only five minutes of 'work'...and they would like to share their good fortune with you. Five minutes and you get a longshot. Five months...and you get an eviction notice."

How can you not like this guy? :ThmbUp:

Um, if you're one of the guys promising untold riches? :D

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Tom Ainslie...from his Complete guide to Thoroughbred Racing:

"If your mail resembles mine, then it often includes intriguing correspondence from persons unknown...who are promising to grant you untold riches in exchange for a scant $20 bill. They have discovered handicapping systems, they say, which are able to unearth longshot winners after only five minutes of 'work'...and they would like to share their good fortune with you. Five minutes and you get a longshot. Five months...and you get an eviction notice."

How can you not like this guy? :ThmbUp:

I pulled my article The Magic Number from Ainslie's first edition. It appeared in Horseplayer Magazine http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147

[Cratos]

I'd put Tom Ainslie on top, not necessarily because he wrote the best book but because he paved the path for the other writers. He was the first one to show there was a market for a well written, intelligent handicapping book. Even Andy Beyer said, all handicapping books can be divided into two categories. Before and after Tom Ainslie. I'd also put Mark Cramer on my list.
There should be little or no argument at all that Andrew Beyer is the legendary ambassador of modern thoroughbred handicapping.

However in terms of journalistic writing about horseracing I would put the late Jim Murray of the LA Times and the late Red Smith of the NY Times ahead of Beyer.

Having said that, Beyer gets the edge over them and Tom Ainsile with his introduction to the horseracing public a practical and simple handicapping tool in the form of his "speedfigure" methodology which is still the premier tool today after 40+ years.

Also we shouldn't overlook Phil Bull of Timeform who is truly the "godfather" of modern quantitative handicapping with his Timeform Ratings and Timefigures which he introduced in the 1930s.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

There should be little or no argument at all that Andrew Beyer is the legendary ambassador of modern thoroughbred handicapping.

However in terms of journalistic writing about horseracing I would put the late Jim Murray of the LA Times and the late Red Smith of the NY Times ahead of Beyer.

Having said that, Beyer gets the edge over them and Tom Ainsile with his introduction to the horseracing public a practical and simple handicapping tool in the form of his "speedfigure" methodology which is still the premier tool today after 40+ years.

Also we shouldn't overlook Phil Bull of Timeform who is truly the "godfather" of modern quantitative handicapping with his Timeform Ratings and Timefigures which he introduced in the 1930s.

If we're going back to the war years, Ray Taulbot gets a mention. He was pace makes the race long before it became part of the modern handicapping literature. I think American Turf Monthly might still be recirculating his articles.

[Tom]

I met Tom (Dick Carter) at a Sartin seminar in Albany. He sat in front of me and we chatted a bit during breaks. Very nice man. He was learning to use the advanced Sartin programs and was very interested in the whole thing.

[Cratos]

If we're going back to the war years, Ray Taulbot gets a mention. He was pace makes the race long before it became part of the modern handicapping literature. I think American Turf Monthly might still be recirculating his articles.
The war years? Ray Taulbot who passed away in 1969 was very relevant during Beyer's early years and I didn't include him because Beyer and others wrote for widely distributed daily newspapers whereas Taulbot was writing for a niche publication.

This doesn't demean Taulbot, but I don't think journalistically he had the same effect on the sport with his writings as Beyer.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

The war years? Ray Taulbot who passed away in 1969 was very relevant during Beyer's early years and I didn't include him because Beyer and others wrote for widely distributed daily newspapers whereas Taulbot was writing for a niche publication.

This doesn't demean Taulbot, but I don't think journalistically he had the same effect on the sport with his writings as Beyer.

I know Taulbot was born in 1895 and I believe he was managing editor at ATM from the 30's until his death, wasn't he? It's hard to compare eras - horseracing was a different game until the middle of the 20th century, but Taulbot might have been one of the better known "handicapping writers" in that era. I know ATM relentlessly pushed his pace calculator and they sold an awful lot of them. For those of us who got their start pre-Beyer, Taulbot was one of the few references we had until Ainslie's 1968 book. I would agree he didn't have nearly the impact Beyer did at any time, and a lot of Taulbot's stuff was based on "angles" which were a popular handicapping tool in an era when the racing form had more limited data set. I was familiar with ATM because later on I wrote for them when the Bomze brothers were running the show and there was definitely a formula for the articles. Beyer has the advantage of recency and his bibliography well surpasses anything Taulbot did, but in the day ATM and Racing Digest had a pretty wide distribution in the Northeast anyway. Beyer is the clear winner in any comparison, and perhaps Taulbot wouldn't make a top five list, but for a lot of us he was the first guy to fool around with handicapping "science" and he does hold a special place.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

While this article was firmly written tongue-in-cheek on April Fool's Day, I do see this particular quote as quite poignant:

As the “saberists'” popularity has grown, a great debate has emerged between sabermetrics and traditional scouting. You cannot remain in the “saberists'” good standing if you place any value in anything a scout has ever said.

I see this as quite true in horse racing.

Both sides of the fence riddle the other in their methods when it comes to "numbers" or "computer" generated models versus the wiley veteran that utilizes pen, paper, and a racing form to earn their trade.

Both can be great. Both can be woefully wrong.

[thaskalos]

Anyone know which handicapping author was the biggest bettor? :)

[ReplayRandall]

Anyone know which handicapping author was the biggest bettor? :)
Are we talking at least $5K a day, in 1985 dollars?

[dnlgfnk]

While this article was firmly written tongue-in-cheek on April Fool's Day, I do see this particular quote as quite poignant:

As the “saberists'” popularity has grown, a great debate has emerged between sabermetrics and traditional scouting. You cannot remain in the “saberists'” good standing if you place any value in anything a scout has ever said.

I see this as quite true in horse racing.

Both sides of the fence riddle the other in their methods when it comes to "numbers" or "computer" generated models versus the wiley veteran that utilizes pen, paper, and a racing form to earn their trade.

Both can be great. Both can be woefully wrong.

A high school player can't be measured by sabermetrics...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2011-minor-league-player-of-the-year-mike-trout-12308/

...but his development can be measured once in the system...

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF#advanced

To establish the satire, the author created a false dichotomy...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-is-sabermetrics-and-which-teams-use-it/



--but I still enjoyed the April Fool's joke.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Anyone know which handicapping author was the biggest bettor? :)

Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan have both authored books. I'd say they are the biggest bettors; even to date.

[thaskalos]

Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan have both authored books. I'd say they are the biggest bettors; even to date.

Handicapping books?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Handicapping books?

They weren't?

[Tom]

Are we talking at least $5K a day, in 1985 dollars?

I would guess Beyer, or Davidowitz.

[Robert Goren]

Anyone know which handicapping author was the biggest bettor? :) I am going to hazard a guess that it might be C X Wong.
Although he did not write about handicapping, Pete Axthelm was know to wager large amounts of money on the ponies.

[Capper Al]

There are better numbers out there, so, you can't call the Beyer figures the "standard". Beyer the man casts a much bigger shadow than just the numbers bearing his name.

I didn't say Beyer numbers were the best, just the standard by which all are measured against.

[Capper Al]

Beyer, to his credit, could entertain us in his writings leaving all authors behind. Beyer didn't invent parellel time charts. He just gave them life to the public.

[dnlgfnk]

However, he did invent some time frames...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1482289&postcount=25

...but I'm a huge fan anyway.

[Valuist]

Handicapping books?

For horse racing? Or anything?

Stanford Wong?