American Pharoah to win

[depalma113]

American Pharoah :18: The only thing missing from this horse is wings. He simply towers over this field. Beyer Average is top 5. Multiple Grade One winner and only a couple of those have failed to hit the board since 2003. An absolute workout machine that carries that effort into the afternoons. Last work was spectacular and the second best that day, a full 1.2 seconds slower, just easily won the Oaks. In a 10 horse field he is even money or less, but we get an extra 10 or so also rans in this and his odds balloon. Deserving Favorite, If the jock doesn't fall off, your winner.

Upstart :19: I don't know he can beat American Pharoah, in fact I doubt any horse in this race is good enough to beat him, but I've never seen a bad race from this guy, so you never know. He's tops in the Beyer Average, and shouldn't have to contest the pace in this one. Key stat says he should finish in the top 4.

Dortmund :8: Will take them a long way around the track and has turned foes away in the stretch before, but those foes are not the beast in his stable. Multiple Grade One Winner which as I said before is a key stat in this race. Beyer Average top 5. Should be there for a piece. If he catches a speed favoring track could pull it off.

Materiality :3: Late Pletcher bloomer should sit second behind Dortmund most of the way. Beyer Average Top 5. Don't think he's good enough to get the win, but filling out the exotics is not out of the question.

Firing Line :10: ran head to head with Dortmund, but just couldn't beat him. Beyer Average top 5. Went out of town to demolish an allowance posing as a Graded Stakes race. Has distance questions, but will be going for the lead at some point. Could it be at the wire? Probably not. Minor piece at best.

Bolo :9: Churchill is kind to turf horses running on the dirt and this one seems to really like it. Was no match for Dortmund either time he faced him and nothing suggests he is going to turn the tables this time. Minor piece at best.

[boys at tosconova]

according to regal bloodlines, his momma's gramma, sisters pappy lacks stamina....and therefor cannot finish, or be one of the top 10..but having this new strain of wings makes up for this imo.

[Greyfox]

according to regal bloodlines, his momma's gramma, sisters pappy lacks stamina....and therefor cannot finish, or be one of the top 10..but having this new strain of wings makes up for this imo.

Really? The Arkansas Derby finish must have been an illusion then. :rolleyes:

[Relwob Owner]

Really? The Arkansas Derby finish must have been an illusion then. :rolleyes:

Great looking but what was he running against?

[razorback5]

Great looking but what was he running against?
Not the horses fault who was loaded into the gate with him. Maybe the other good horses didn't want to face AP. Plus, he did what he was supposed to do and crushed the field he was put in against.

[PaceAdvantage]

AP will be exposed late, when it counts...my opinion of course...others may vary... :lol:

[Relwob Owner]

Not the horses fault who was loaded into the gate with him. Maybe the other good horses didn't want to face AP. Plus, he did what he was supposed to do and crushed the field he was put in against.

Of course it isn't his fault but pretty basic to look at who a horse ran against and what kind of trip he had. He faced bad horses and had a perfect trip so of course he looked good. Can he win? Of course, but at the odds he will be at, a nice bet against IMO.

[boys at tosconova]

the people that knock AP have pretty lame reasoning to do so.

just think if you handicapped every race based on pedigree and ignored form and body of work....this is their only outlet to justify any creedence, and even so,..it's a major lol and reach

sure AP might not win, it's ahorse race...but it will have little to do w/ pedigree in this spot.

[PaceAdvantage]

the people that knock AP have pretty lame reasoning to do so.

just think if you handicapped every race based on pedigree and ignored form and body of work....this is their only outlet to justify any creedence, and even so,..it's a major lol and reach

sure AP might not win, it's ahorse race...but it will have little to do w/ pedigree in this spot.I don't base my comments on pedigree. I base it on pace numbers.

Other than Mr. Z, American Pharoah has the WORST late rating of the ENTIRE FIELD (according to TimeFormUS)

No way am I betting (to win) on a horse in the Derby (the favorite no less) sporting that kind of feature on his resume.

[PaceAdvantage]

If AP wins, that means he's a freak who's found another level...if AP wins, he'll win the Triple Crown.

These are mighty big ifs I'm not willing to wager money on at such a low price.

[Tom]

AP will be exposed late, when it counts...my opinion of course...others may vary... :lol:

I think he will be exposed early.

[Greyfox]

I think he will be exposed early.

...and expose others late. :D

[BlueChip@DRF]

according to regal bloodlines, his momma's gramma, sisters pappy lacks stamina....and therefor cannot finish, or be one of the top 10..but having this new strain of wings makes up for this imo.

Do the horses know about this?

[boys at tosconova]

Do the horses know about this?


know abut what? the wings or that his great, great, great gammah excelled at only a going a mile?

[depalma113]

Boom Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Relwob Owner]

Boom Baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Congrats to ya. Nice call

[Giacomo05]

Nicely done :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

If AP wins, that means he's a freak who's found another level...if AP wins, he'll win the Triple Crown.

.

He won. But I don't think that he'll win the Triple Crown.

[depalma113]

He won. But I don't think that he'll win the Triple Crown.

He's the only one with a chance.

[ArlJim78]

I actually thought AP would win in a route, didn't think he'd have to work that hard. I guess given his post, ground loss and slow pace it was maybe better than it looked though.

[depalma113]

I actually thought AP would win in a route, didn't think he'd have to work that hard. I guess given his post, ground loss and slow pace it was maybe better than it looked though.

Stevens floated him wide on the far turn.

[ArlJim78]

Stevens floated him wide on the far turn.
yeah I caught that, did him no favors.

[ArlJim78]

tweeted by trakus

American Pharoah covered 29 feet more than Firing Line and 69 feet more than Dortmund.

[overthehill]

As I said before he already demonstrated to me that hes a freak. as well as to others. There is no reason to think he wont win the triple crown. IMHO he is as good as Spectaclar Bid was late in his three year old career, when he demolished older grade I horses with ease.

[RXB]

Certainly a nice horse but he's not at Spectacular Bid's level, I'm fairly sure of that. Bid was absolutely awesome and his Ky Derby win was of a different calibre than yesterday's performance.

[raybo]

Comparing horses to others is not only error prone, it is completely unfair to the horses. We will never know which horses are better unless they line up against each other and run (and sometimes we still can't tell). The fact that AP ran from the outside and remained somewhat wide throughout means he ran further than the other two contenders. He ran well early, middle, and late, what else can you ask of him? Will he win the TC? Nobody knows for sure, but if he can handle the grind of running 4 races in a very short time frame, and has no major issues between now and then, he certainly has the qualities to win it. One race at a time, that's all he can do. The big problem I see is going to be in the Belmont. By the time of that race, unless he has an absolute breeze in the Preakness, he's going to have to run his best once again but against a few horses who will be much fresher. That was CC's problem last year, and that of any horse who runs the first 2 TC races (and a race 3 weeks before the Derby also, in AP's case). That 1 1/2 miles will tell us just how good AP is, the really good ones just somehow find a way to run their race, regardless, and it would not surprise me if AP is that kind of horse.

Well done, this coming from someone who was on Dortmund and Firing Line in the Derby!!

[ArlJim78]

“I could have claimed foul, but I was beat,” Stevens said. “It would have been wrong after such a brave race.”

Yes you were beaten already when it happened Gary but it would have been wrong because it was your mount which drifted out and caused that tiny bump.