Peter Pan "I don't see it"

[Speed Figure]

Peter Pan S. G2 BEL
1C 2C LF SF PR
10 Purge 101 112 102 108 117.3
06 Swingforthefences 95 106 95 100 113.1
04 Master David 90 105 93 99 112.6
Race Figures 103 112 102 108


I give the race a real nice speed figure. The problem is it's a 1 turn race. Purge is 3 for 3 around 1 turn, but 0 for 2 going 2 turns. I don't see him as a Win Contender for the Belmont!

[PaceAdvantage]

Pletcher already said he's not going to send him to the Belmont, however, I see in today's Bloodhorse story that suddenly, he's leaving the door open again.

Did I or did I not read only YESTERDAY a quote from Pletcher saying he definitely DID NOT want to face Smarty Jones again in the Belmont Stakes? (This quote was AFTER the Peter Pan)

[Speed Figure]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Pletcher already said he's not going to send him to the Belmont
Thanks PA, I didn't see that.:D

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, I revised my post shortly after doing a little extra research...it now appears that Pletcher is leaving the door open..

[sam i am]

From todays Albany paper

Peter Pan yields no hopes for challenge
Trainers in no rush to test Smarty Jones in Belmont

By TIM WILKIN, Staff writer
First published: Sunday, May 23, 2004

ELMONT -- The field for the 136th running of the $1 million Belmont Stakes began to shrink late Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park.

After watching their horses run in the $200,000 Grade II Peter Pan Stakes, several trainers said they would pass on the chance to take on Smarty Jones in the Belmont.


And that includes the winner.

Smarty Jones, of course, is undefeated and one win away from becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. He'll get his chance June 5.

A colt named Purge easily won the Peter Pan at 1 /8 mile, clearing the field by by 6 /4 lengths in 1:47 /5. Afterward, though, trainer Todd Pletcher said he didn't plan to bring him back in two weeks.

"I won't say absolutely for sure, one way or another but, probably not," Pletcher said between sips of champagne in a private dining room on Belmont's third floor. "We already tried (Smarty Jones) twice."

Purge finished fifth behind Smarty Jones in the Arkansas Derby on April 10 and was second to him in the Rebel Stakes on March 14. Both races were at Oaklawn Park.

Pletcher said Purge, who has won his other three starts, will likely race in the Dwyer here on July 11.

Smarty Jones figures to be joined in the Belmont field by Rock Hard Ten and Eddington, who were second and third in the Preakness; Tapit, the Wood Memorial winner who was ninth in the Kentucky Derby; and Royal Assault, who won the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day.

Nick Zito, who trains Royal Assault, also might enter The Cliff's Edge, who missed the Preakness with a bruised right foot after finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby, and Birdstone, who was eighth in the Derby.

The Cliff's Edge and Birdstone are stabled in Zito's barn at the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga Springs. Birdstone breezed five furlongs Saturday on the Oklahoma in 1:02 /5; The Cliff's Edge galloped.

Swingforthefences, trained by Rick Violette, was second in the Peter Pan.

"I think we would look for a spot other than the Belmont," Violette said, watching a replay of the race in the Belmont tunnel. "This is a nice horse and we can make some money with him and win some nice races without being stupid. Right now, I think there is only one horse that can beat Smarty Jones and that is Smarty Jones."

Master David, the 9-5 favorite who was 12th in the Kentucky Derby, made a late run but could manage only third, 1 /4 lengths behind Swingforthefences.

Trainer Bobby Frankel, visibly upset while leaving the track, said the Belmont was out, but he could change his mind.

John Kimmel almost certainly will not. His horse, seventh-place finisher Friends Lake, never was a factor, finishing 15 lengths behind the winner.

"That was just awful, I'm very disappointed," said a frustrated Kimmel, who had high hopes for the Chestertown-born colt after his win in the Florida Derby. "My horse is not right, something is wrong. I'm not worried about the Belmont, I'm worried about my horse. I would have loved to have taken a shot at Smarty Jones, but this horse will not be able to do anything but put himself further behind if he runs in the Belmont." Funny Cide, who was scratched from the Pimlico Special on May 14 because of the heat in Baltimore, is being pointed to the Met Mile here on May 31. He is likely to race against 2002 Horse of the Year Azeri; Strong Hope, last year's Jim Dandy winner at Saratoga; and Pico Central, who won the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct on April 10.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's probably the quote I read. But even in that quote, he's leaving a sliver of chance that he might run....

No difference....Smarty should still win the Belmont with or without Purge in the field.

[sam i am]

He has no chance to beat Smarty going 2 turns. for that matter I don't think any other 3yr old can either. but that is not saying I won't take a flyer against him at 1-9.

[Tom]

I think it is nuts not to enter at least-you never know what will happen between no wand then. SPectacular Bid looked even more impressive and unbeatable than SJ, and look what happened to him.
Purge looks to be just the type of late-bloomer not touted for the Derby horse that win this thing more than sometimes.

[kenwoodallpromos]

What Tom said- door's open if Smarty is not on the other side of it. I do not know, but when was the last time so many bog name trainers were this afraid of racing against a horse and complimenting so much?

[Valuist]

Purge will likely not win the Belmont but he could play a big role in how its run. If he's not in, doesn't Smarty figure to be on the lead? And if Purge does run, I think it would behoove (no pun intended) Smarty if they went to the half in at least :48. Faster than :47 and he could be in trouble.

[Speed Figure]

Looks like Purge get's a 108 beyer. The same figure I gave him.

[OTM Al]

With all the horses from this race most likely dropping out of Belmont consideration, there will be no early speed other than Smarty in the race. I had figured Zito may try and drop a rabbit in there to try to burn him out, but its not looking like it. This could easily turn into a wire to wire for Smarty who should easily be able to control the pace. As long as the first half is 47 and change to 48 and change he should have no problem and will have a bigger margin than at Pimlico. At least a bigger field would have made it more interesting....