Dortmund

[OCF]

What's to say the big fella doesn't just wire this thing?

Yeah I know it's not the preferred Derby running style, but it has been done - War Emblem in 2002 and Go for Gin in 1994. Maybe it's due.

[Augenj]

What's to say the big fella doesn't just wire this thing?

Yeah I know it's not the preferred Derby running style, but it has been done - War Emblem in 2002 and Go for Gin in 1994. Maybe it's due.
Don't forget Winning Colors in 1988. I had $20 on her at 60/1 in the future book at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas. That wire couldn't come up soon enough. :D

[SecretAgentMan]

Once in the 80's, once in the 90's, & once in 2002, so I'm assuming we will get another one between 2010 to 2020......but I doubt its this year.

[minethatbird08]

Once in the 80's, once in the 90's, & once in 2002, so I'm assuming we will get another one between 2010 to 2020......but I doubt its this year.

This was before I followed the sport but believe Spend A Buck wired the field, fastest fractions for a wire winner if memory serves me.

[DeltaLover]

What's to say the big fella doesn't just wire this thing?

Yeah I know it's not the preferred Derby running style, but it has been done - War Emblem in 2002 and Go for Gin in 1994. Maybe it's due.

Among the obvious choices, I believe that D has the best shot to win it.

[Tall One]

This was before I followed the sport but believe Spend A Buck wired the field, fastest fractions for a wire winner if memory serves me.



Serves you correctly. Cordero being Cordero.

[paulbenny]

I believe he did it too by about 5 in 1985. It was speed all the way.

[SecretAgentMan]

This was before I followed the sport but believe Spend A Buck wired the field, fastest fractions for a wire winner if memory serves me.



Oh, I didn't know he wired it. I started betting horses in 1991, but knew Winning Colors did cause of Lukas & Gary Stevens.

[minethatbird08]

Oh, I didn't know he wired it. I started betting horses in 1991, but knew Winning Colors did cause of Lukas & Gary Stevens.

NP, once I get into something I read everything I can on the subject. I think why I remember it is because when Bodie lost some people said his fractions were too fast and others mentioned Spend a Buck.

Fwiw, I didn't know about Winning Colors wiring the field. So we both learned something. :)

[classhandicapper]

I like Dortmund's chances.

Once Calculator and Texas Red went down and then American Pharoah left CA, what looked like a killer CA group weakened. However, I think Dortmund is better than he looks on paper despite the questionable competition. I would argue that in each of his last 3 victories he was not racing on the best part of the surface, but was able to win anyway. That's impressive. So if he generally looks good (imo he does), and he's better than he looks (imo he is) he's going to be tough.

The female side is a little sprinty and I don't like the fact that he's been pulling to the lead. I'd prefer he relax off the pace like he did in his earlier starts because the Derby pace is usually fast. But if he can relax IMO he's got a huge shot.

[Thunder Gulch]

I believe he did it too by about 5 in 1985. It was speed all the way.

Can't remember clearly, but wasn't there another speedy horse that was supposed to go with SAB but stumbled at the start, opening the door for an unpressured, though fast pace.

When Bodemeister rebroke of the turn a couple of years ago after quick fractions, my jaw dropped. I thought I was on the verge of seeing something great, but alas, that last furlong did him in.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Can't remember clearly, but wasn't there another speedy horse that was supposed to go with SAB but stumbled at the start, opening the door for an unpressured, though fast pace.

When Bodemeister rebroke of the turn a couple of years ago after quick fractions, my jaw dropped. I thought I was on the verge of seeing something great, but alas, that last furlong did him in.

In 2002, MdO (the only other speed) was supposed to go with WE, but MdO stumbled at the break and was then swallowed up and pressed against the rail by the weight of the field, leaving WE to coast at an honest but comfortable pace.

[Thunder Gulch]

I have my doubts as to whether he will sit off the pace, so being involved in a .46/1:10 has me cautious. He's a heck of a horse, but at the same time the rumblings around the Baffert barn have been that AP is lengths the better horse.

[SecretAgentMan]

I like Dortmund's chances.

Once Calculator and Texas Red went down and then American Pharoah left CA, what looked like a killer CA group weakened. However, I think Dortmund is better than he looks on paper despite the questionable competition. I would argue that in each of his last 3 victories he was not racing on the best part of the surface, but was able to win anyway. That's impressive. So if he generally looks good (imo he does), and he's better than he looks (imo he is) he's going to be tough.

The female side is a little sprinty and I don't like the fact that he's been pulling to the lead. I'd prefer he relax off the pace like he did in his earlier starts because the Derby pace is usually fast. But if he can relax IMO he's got a huge shot.



Problem with Dortmund relaxing is he's so big, that if he does relax going around the 1st turn, he will get killed amongst other horses.

This years race isn't like last year, last year you could clearly see there was only one horse that had the speed & stamina to blast out fast & get ahead of the field but behind 1 or 2 horses that were the pace going into the first turn.........

Chrome easily looked like the dinner after you seen him go around that 1st turn because there were no other horses as fast as him in the race.

This year we have like 4 or 5 horses that have that speed & also some cheap speed that will destroy any chances of the good horses up front, IMO, its gonna be brutal up front & the horses sitting behind the pace will get burnt as well........there's no doubt in my mind the winner will come from way behind to win this years derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

I have my doubts as to whether he will sit off the pace, so being involved in a .46/1:10 has me cautious. He's a heck of a horse, but at the same time the rumblings around the Baffert barn have been that AP is lengths the better horse.



No doubt in my mind at all that AP is better than Dortmund right now........later in the fall will be interesting because Dortmund is still filling out.......he's like Shaq at LSU in college, haha!

[Wiley]

Can't remember clearly, but wasn't there another speedy horse that was supposed to go with SAB but stumbled at the start, opening the door for an unpressured, though fast pace.
.
Eternal Prince was the other speed in the 85 race. Yes he was slow out of the gate that day, but I don't think he could have ran with SAB early anyway.

This year's edition has quite a few that want to run close, think Dortmund might be the fastest if he wants the lead. Post draws might be a factor on who is sent. Baffert tends to like his trainees up front so a good chance Dortmund and AP are running one two early, both are definitely fast enough to be there.

[RoyalHeroine]

This was before I followed the sport but believe Spend A Buck wired the field, fastest fractions for a wire winner if memory serves me.

Yes indeed he did.

After the time, the CD connections said the track was too fast and put more sand or whatever in it IIRC.

He could have won the TC but if you'll remember that year he went to Garden State Park for the Jersey Derby bonus and won that one for a huge payout.

I remember him at the inaugural BC @ Hollywood park in the Juvenile. He almost stole that one and I reminded myself to remember him!

[classhandicapper]

I have my doubts as to whether he will sit off the pace, so being involved in a .46/1:10 has me cautious. He's a heck of a horse, but at the same time the rumblings around the Baffert barn have been that AP is lengths the better horse.

Does anyone know if they ever worked against each other?

The problem I have with AP (aside from the fact that he's going to be the favorite) is that he's kind of untested in battle. Even in his last race, he sat off the pace, but he was chasing a hopeless longshot. In the derby, there's going to be other quality speeds and pressers that he'll be mixing it up with. It's not going to be easy for any horse to put away those other horses and still get the 10F, especially an untested horse. I'm not sure I would want those kinds of questions on the favorite even if he turns out to be the most talented horse.

[Secondbest]

Dortmunds sire awd is 7.3 dam is 6.7 .Isn' t that supposed to be the wrong way around?

[minethatbird08]

Dortmunds sire awd is 7.3 dam is 6.7 .Isn' t that supposed to be the wrong way around?

Seems to be the trend with dam sire having a higher awd. Barbaro was the most recent winner to buck the trend.

[Tall One]

Yes indeed he did.

After the time, the CD connections said the track was too fast and put more sand or whatever in it IIRC.

He could have won the TC but if you'll remember that year he went to Garden State Park for the Jersey Derby bonus and won that one for a huge payout.

I remember him at the inaugural BC @ Hollywood park in the Juvenile. He almost stole that one and I reminded myself to remember him!



Good memory. I believe it was a million dollar bonus that GS offered up to complete the KY/Jersey Derby sweep.

[cj]

Good memory. I believe it was a million dollar bonus that GS offered up to complete the KY/Jersey Derby sweep.

It was two million...I watched him win the Garden State Stakes and Cherry Hill Mile in person, both over Maryland based I Am The Game, and both by big margins if memory serves. He could flat out fly.

I Am The Game was trained by recent Hall of Fame selection King Leatherbury.

[Wiley]

It was two million...I watched him win the Garden State Stakes and Cherry Hill Mile in person, both over Maryland based I Am The Game, and both by big margins if memory serves. He could flat out fly.

Cool you were at those races. I think the margins were 10 to 15 length wins in both races.

I think you are right on the two million bonus for the 4 race sweep finishing with the Jersey Derby but I also think it was even sweeter than that. I think when SAB won the Ky Derby they also got a one million bonus for winning the GS stakes and the Cherry Hill mile earlier so in effect they got 3 million in bonus monies total.

I am sure this was a big reason they went that route. I think the owner Dennis Diaz was also a newbie to the game at that time kind of like the California Chrome connections last year.

With this the thirty year anniversary of SAB, American Pharaoh might be a SAB type, his on track appearance at Churchill is impressive, unfortunately he also will vie for favoritism with Dortmund.

[boys at tosconova]

the dortmund to seattle slew comparision is lol

dorts has not run anywhere near that standard right now and it's pretty easy to sniff out the bs factor spewing out of kaleem shaw's mouth.

really surprised to see people accepting and eating this up

[classhandicapper]

the dortmund to seattle slew comparision is lol

dorts has not run anywhere near that standard right now and it's pretty easy to sniff out the bs factor spewing out of kaleem shaw's mouth.

really surprised to see people accepting and eating this up

I'm a huge Dortmund fan, but Seattle Slew had potential greatness written all over him after his first 2 starts where he got left and got rushed up, got left and ran against a bias etc... and was still pissing on his competition. At 3 he was showing incredible brilliance and reserves before the Derby.

Slew was a freak, but back in those days some people were less sensitive to the impact of pace and trip on figures. People were more literal. So he didn't get full credit until he was 4, and even then, not until the JCGC for some of the biggest doubters.

Dortmund looks like a really good horse. He's already done a couple of things that made me shake my head. He's not in Slew's league at the same stage.

[RoyalHeroine]

I'm a huge Dortmund fan, but Seattle Slew had potential greatness written all over him after his first 2 starts where he got left and got rushed up, got left and ran against a bias etc... and was still pissing on his competition. At 3 he was showing incredible brilliance and reserves before the Derby.

Slew was a freak, but back in those days some people were less sensitive to the impact of pace and trip on figures. People were more literal. So he didn't get full credit until he was 4, and even then, not until the JCGC for some of the biggest doubters.

Dortmund looks like a really good horse. He's already done a couple of things that made me shake my head. He's not in Slew's league at the same stage.

Yes indeediedo!!

Don't forget he totally missed the break in the derby and bulled through two horses around the finish line b4 the first turn to get the lead.

Slew was just a monster. Ran Affirmed's eyeballs out in that Gold Cup, and kept going as if to say, "I'm the man". That JCGC was crazy ability. After running through a 3/4 split which caused Chick Anderson to stutter, "three quarters of a mile in a very...ah...unbelievable 1:09 and two." he still came back on Exceller to and would have gone past if the wire was 10' farther.

Just remember Cordero on Cordero said he was the best horse he ever sat on!

Ain't not way Dort is anywhere near SS at this time of year. Ridiculous to even utter them in the same sentence.

Just my $0.02 worth.

[Speed Figure]

I really like Dortmund a lot!

[WP1981]

No doubt in my mind at all that AP is better than Dortmund right now........later in the fall will be interesting because Dortmund is still filling out.......he's like Shaq at LSU in college, haha!

Would that make AP Laetner?

[upthecreek]

It was two million...I watched him win the Garden State Stakes and Cherry Hill Mile in person, both over Maryland based I Am The Game, and both by big margins if memory serves. He could flat out fly.

I Am The Game was trained by recent Hall of Fame selection King Leatherbury.
I think El basco was 2nd in one those races,remember having the exacta that paid like $6

[classhandicapper]

he still came back on Exceller to and would have gone past if the wire was 10' farther.

I was at Belmont standing just before the finish line that day. When he started coming again, I thought I was in an episode of the Twilight Zone. When he just missed, my heart sunk. He just needed a couple more jumps. What a heart!

On the flip side, on the day he wired Affirmed, at the end of the race I was jumping into the arms of strangers.

Those crowds and those races were really eipc. It's the kind of stuff that makes getting older seem not so bad because you were around to witness it .

We should all be so lucky if this crop of 3yos (which IMO is excellent) gives us any thrills like that down the line.

[upthecreek]

I think El basco was 2nd in one those races,remember having the exacta that paid like $6
Sorry my memory failed me-3rd in Jersey Derby

[cj]

I think El basco was 2nd in one those races,remember having the exacta that paid like $6

I could still be wrong because this isn't an official record, but I looked up his stakes races on Pedigree Query and it shows I Am The Game second in both. I do see El Basco's name a few times:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?h=spend+a+buck&query_type=stakes&search_bar=stakes&field=all

[RoyalHeroine]

I was at Belmont standing just before the finish line that day. When he started coming again, I thought I was in an episode of the Twilight Zone. When he just missed, my heart sunk. He just needed a couple more jumps. What a heart!

On the flip side, on the day he wired Affirmed, at the end of the race I was jumping into the arms of strangers.

Those crowds and those races were really eipc. It's the kind of stuff that makes getting older seem not so bad because you were around to witness it .

We should all be so lucky if this crop of 3yos (which IMO is excellent) gives us any thrills like that down the line.

Lucky guy to have been there!

That was a somewhat cold and drizzly day wasn't it? Do you remeber what the gate count was?

Great post up!

Who do you like, or perhaps, who are your top 3, this year?!?

My crystal ball says it has the potential to be epic!

Good luck and safe trips to all!

[classhandicapper]

Who do you like, or perhaps, who are your top 3, this year?!?


It really depends on the prices, but right now I am leaning towards Dortmund. I think the CA group he beat wasn't anything special. I also don't like the way he's been running on the lead lately. I'd rather have seen him relax off it. But he's battled tested and I also think he's better than he looks on paper. In a few of his races he spent a lot of time on the rail on days I didn't think that was the best path. It takes a very good horse to do that.

American Pharoah may be the most talented and has been the most impressive visually, but as a clear favorite I'm willing to take a shot against him. I'm hoping he gets sucked into a fast pace or doesn't want 10F after pressure at this stage in his career. If he winds of being a great horse and kicks butt, so be it. That won't shock me.

I'm not sure what to do with Materiality. I think the racing in Florida was solid and I thought he ran a big race last out. But he's very inexperienced and his development so rapid, I have no idea what to expect out of him next, especially being a Pletcher horse coming out of Florida. If he gets ignored, I may use him defensively, but I don't think I could make him a key.

I have no special opinions on the rest of the "name" horses. Several clearly have a shot. I just don't have a hidden value oriented positive or negative insight.

The only totally under the radar horse I have an interest in is Frammento (if he gets in). I'm close to certain he wants 10F. I'm close to certain he's improving. I'm close to certain his last is better than it looks on paper. A lot of that is hidden. Despite all that, it's highly unlikely he's good enough to win. But I do think he could be good enough to maybe fill out a triple or super with a little help from the pace, a decent trip, and another step forward. If the race melts down, you never know. :eek:

[Tom]

American Pharoah may be the most talented

Still waiting for him to show it.
His last race was mildly interesting, but considering what he beat......

The horse has never shown me a hint of class.
He will not be on any of my tickets.

[boys at tosconova]

Still waiting for him to show it.
His last race was mildly interesting, but considering what he beat......

The horse has never shown me a hint of class.
He will not be on any of my tickets.

http://media.tumblr.com/784785cf391a578bfa8b6333c9e0a9e0/tumblr_inline_mhx5jrM97E1qz4rgp.gif

[QTwithTQ]

Not that this is going to impact how I view Dortmund in this upcoming race, just thought I'd share a nice article detailing the backstory of him and his breeder

Undefeated Dortmund carries heavy memories of breeder's Ky Derby dream (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/undefeated-dortmund-carries-heavy-memories-breeders-ky-derby-dream)

[Parson]

He is impressive when you are close up

[Thunder Gulch]

Thanks for the photos Parson.
Every shot I've seen of Dortmund is amazing. He just looks like a monster. Of course other oversized beauties include Rock Hard Ten and Point Given, and they weren't able to get there.

[Parson]

He is by far the largest Derby horse I have ever seen. I thought Point Given was big, but he is bigger.

[Appy]

AP has terrific propulsion, while Dortmund is the easiest strider in this field. Makes everything look so fluid and easy.
Gawd I love to watch horses run.

[jettroofer]

Steve Byck commented this morning that while watchin Dotrmund work around the track, Danzig Moon came inside of him at a good clip. He was concerned that D would bite down and chase. He said he didn't even flinch, kept his cool and continued on with his business. That should be good to hear for those worried about him taking off after the burners. I don't think he had to have the lead and if AP runs a Bode and can't clear, he'll be there to pounce if they both are clean. I just can't see him hitting a wall.

[boys at tosconova]

what i find interesting is that dorts only beat fire line 2x by a head and followed that up w/ beating prospect prk and bolo by <2L

his latest win was given to him as well on an uncontested soft lead

seattle slew...lol

[jettroofer]

All three of those horses Dortmund beat are better than anything AP has beaten this year. I think Dort is still finding his and working himself into those big feet. With that said, if he is still improving.....look out on Saturday. If I had only one tri key to play, it would be him. One can obviously not knock anything AP has done. He is the deserving fav. I really like watching the big guy run.

[boys at tosconova]

All three of those horses Dortmund beat are better than anything AP has beaten this year. I think Dort is still finding his and working himself into those big feet. With that said, if he is still improving.....look out on Saturday. If I had only one tri key to play, it would be him. One can obviously not knock anything AP has done. He is the deserving fav. I really like watching the big guy run.

for the most part it doesn't matter who the winner of these prep races beats. it's how they beat them

[jettroofer]

I would argue Dort got more out of his preps than AP. If AP proves to be Michael Jordan with a tail, none of it really mattered anyway.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, AP is one of those horses that is hard to quantify.

When a horse with 20 starts crushes a soft field or has an easy trip, you can usually look at his back races and make a reasonable judgment about his ability in tougher circumstances.

With a lightly raced horse, it's different. When horses like that get thrown into tougher circumstances, some will reveal they are even better than they looked and some will reveal they are mediocre horses who simply benefitted from the recent soft competition or trips. You can make an educated guess off things like trainer, pedigree, breeder, owner (which would argue for AP being very very good) etc... but you can't really know from the PPs.

In the former case, I love betting against horses that are going to be overbet off soft trips or wins against very easy fields.

In the latter case, I'm not as anxious to bet against AP. He may be a killer. I'm going to do it anyway because it's a big field, the pace could be tough, the 10F could be tough for him, and he'll be the favorite. I could see him losing even if he turns out to be the best horse. IMO, that makes it worthwhile. But I'm not anxious to do it.

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, AP is one of those horses that is hard to quantify.

When a horse with 20 starts crushes a soft field or has an easy trip, you can usually look at his back races and make a reasonable judgment about his ability in tougher circumstances.

With a lightly raced horse, it's different. When horses like that get thrown into tougher circumstances, some will reveal they are even better than they looked and some will reveal they are mediocre horses who simply benefitted from the recent soft competition or trips. You can make an educated guess off things like trainer, pedigree, breeder, owner (which would argue for AP being very very good) etc... but you can't really know from the PPs.

In the former case, I love betting against horses that are going to be overbet off soft trips or wins against very easy fields.

In the latter case, I'm not as anxious to bet against AP. He may be a killer. I'm going to do it anyway because it's a big field, the pace could be tough, the 10F could be tough for him, and he'll be the favorite. I could see him losing even if he turns out to be the best horse. IMO, that makes it worthwhile. But I'm not anxious to do it.



Very well written! My sentiments are the same........

[boys at tosconova]

nobody should be anxious to bet against AP. you can obv bet against him...but it stops there

[boys at tosconova]

IMO, AP is one of those horses that is hard to quantify.

When a horse with 20 starts crushes a soft field or has an easy trip, you can usually look at his back races and make a reasonable judgment about his ability in tougher circumstances.

With a lightly raced horse, it's different. When horses like that get thrown into tougher circumstances, some will reveal they are even better than they looked and some will reveal they are mediocre horses who simply benefitted from the recent soft competition or trips. You can make an educated guess off things like trainer, pedigree, breeder, owner (which would argue for AP being very very good) etc... but you can't really know from the PPs.

In the former case, I love betting against horses that are going to be overbet off soft trips or wins against very easy fields.

In the latter case, I'm not as anxious to bet against AP. He may be a killer. I'm going to do it anyway because it's a big field, the pace could be tough, the 10F could be tough for him, and he'll be the favorite. I could see him losing even if he turns out to be the best horse. IMO, that makes it worthwhile. But I'm not anxious to do it.

"AP is hard to quantify and you don't know if he's any good from his past performances"

really....

[SecretAgentMan]

nobody should be anxious to bet against AP. you can obv bet against him...but it stops there



What makes me anxious is the trainer Baffert......he's a 3 time derby winner & has the supposed best horse in 35 years from what one of the blockers at Churchill has seen.......tgwn again, I was a bit nervous when I bet Monarchos against Point Given.

You can't walk up to the window & be nervous about betting a horse you like, because you will never make money that way.

My cousin lived Chrome after he seen him run in the Santa Anita derby.......then like most people on here, he talked himself off of the horse & playing like 3 or 4 horses on top & not winning jack.

He does it every year........can't make money that way.

[classhandicapper]

"AP is hard to quantify and you don't know if he's any good from his past performances"

really....

We know he's good.

We don't know what's going to happen in a legitimate Grade 1 field with quality pressure because he hasn't been in a tough race either early or late yet. He'll either demonstrate he's got a gear that he hasn't had to use yet or he'll demonstrate that his soft trips against weaker made him look better than he actually is.

I think his range of possibilities is greater than for a horse like Dortmund who has already been tested and shown us more about himself.

[boys at tosconova]

We know he's good.

We don't know what's going to happen in a legitimate Grade 1 field with quality pressure because he hasn't been in a tough race either early or late yet. He'll either demonstrate he's got a gear that he hasn't had to use yet or he'll demonstrate that his soft trips against weaker made him look better than he actually is.

I think his range of possibilities is greater than for a horse like Dortmund who has already been tested and shown us more about himself.

you're giving way to much credit to dortmouth.,,. he has just as many "who have you faced" questions surrounding him as does most every quality divisional winner does. dort's last race was business as usual and nothing that special. usually other horses try

as for AP finding another gear. do you mean secretariat's gear, because he already demonstrated a 450 hemi last race only in only 4th gear...

[Cratos]

My favorite in this year’s Derby is Dortmund followed by Mubtaahij and American Pharoah.

American Pharoah reminds me of Honest Pleasure; a very fast horse, but not a 1-1/4m horse.

Dortmund on the other hand is a “freak,” but Churchill Downs is not kind to big horses given that Bellamy Road, Point Given, Forego, Rock Hard Ten, and Zenyatta all big horses couldn’t get it done there.

Mubtaahij is a mystery to me, but I like his breeding and I think he will rate

[jettroofer]

you're giving way to much credit to dortmouth.,,. he has just as many "who have you faced" questions surrounding him as does most every quality divisional winner does. dort's last race was business as usual and nothing that special. usually other horses try

as for AP finding another gear. do you mean secretariat's gear, because he already demonstrated a 450 hemi last race only in only 4th gear...

I don't get when those on this thread tout a horse to the point that they argue against and trash (Dortmouth) other horses. It doesn't take ANY handicapping skill to spout out that either of the two favorites are good or have a shot to win. For crying out loud, they are placed at 5/2 and 3-1 on the ML. Neither of these horses has done anything that would take away from them being the deserved essentially co-favorites in this race. Does that mean either of them will win or hit the board? Not necessarily.

[classhandicapper]

you're giving way to much credit to dortmouth.,,. he has just as many "who have you faced" questions surrounding him as does most every quality divisional winner does. dort's last race was business as usual and nothing that special. usually other horses try



They all have questions.

There's just no doubt about Dortmund's quality under fire.

It's not very common for a horse to get passed by a length in the stretch against a quality opponent and then show the determination to come again and get up. I can't recall a single time I've seen that in 40 years when the rail was not the place to be (as it was for Dortmund in that race). He may or may not be good enough, but there's no doubting his quality.