Trading Thread

[barn32]

I thought I'd start a trading thread where you can post trades, ideas about trades, questions about stocks, options, trades etc. Anything to do with trading.

I'll start it off. I bought 1 Apr 17th 100 Call Option as a proxy for 100 shares of AAPL. It was 23 points in the money. My cost basis this way is ~$2300 vs $12,300 for 100 shares of stock. (1/2 of that if you're on margin.)

You give up a little bit in premium, but not too much.

I think this is as decent a long term entry point as any, and I was waiting for AAPL to pull back to 123, so I'm in.

I paid $23.25 for the call.

[Ocala Mike]

OK, I'll play. I'm not currently in the market, but I used to have pretty good success SELLING calls on stock that I owned. I don't know if this is a viable trading technique with a volatile stock like AAPL, but I will make a contrarian (to you) play of a purchase of 100 shares of AAPL at the market, close of business today, and a corresponding SALE of a June 125 call, again price at close of business today.

Good luck, as this is only a "mind" bet just to have a little fun.

[barn32]

OK, I'll play. I'm not currently in the market, but I used to have pretty good success SELLING calls on stock that I owned. I don't know if this is a viable trading technique with a volatile stock like AAPL, but I will make a contrarian (to you) play of a purchase of 100 shares of AAPL at the market, close of business today, and a corresponding SALE of a June 125 call, again price at close of business today.

Good luck, as this is only a "mind" bet just to have a little fun.I like it.

[Tape Reader]

I’m buying ES on a new low for a quick bounce.

[barn32]

The David Sklansky Stock Tip

Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (OREX) ($6.93)

This is a drug company with one drug--Conclave. It's a weight loss drug. Apparently it's well known that most if not all weight loss drugs increase the risk of stroke and heart attack. This drug, Conclave, was studied against a placebo and found to reduce the risk of stroke and heart attack by a significant amount.

However, the company released the findings prematurely much to the consternation of the FDA. There are potential violations pending.

After the release the stock shot up from around $5 to around $9. It was the highest volume stock traded that day-around 19 million shares. After the FDA, and possible violations backlash, it fell back down to around $7.

David's analysis is that if the studies are true then the stock could easily quadrupple to around $28. If it isn't true, or the backlash becomes serious, then the stock could easily cut in half.

The risk reward is there, you make the call. (I'll probably buy 100 shares just on spec.)

Orexigen: What Happened And What's Next (http://seekingalpha.com/article/2993046-orexigen-what-happened-and-whats-next)


http://oi60.tinypic.com/ke9bfn.jpg

[Tape Reader]

I’m buying ES on a new low for a quick bounce.

Order cancelled. Missed new low by 2 pts.

[barn32]

OREX was up around 60¢ yesterday on high relative volume.

"Trade-Ideas LLC identified Orexigen Therapeutics (http://www.thestreet.com/quote/orex.html?cm_ven_int=tstwire) ( OREX (http://www.thestreet.com/quote/orex.html?cm_ven_int=tstwire)) as a strong on high relative volume candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Orexigen Therapeutics as such a stock due to the following factors:




OREX has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $149.1 million.


OREX has traded 880,682 shares today.


OREX is trading at 3.36 times the normal volume for the stock at this time of day.


OREX is trading at a new high 8.02% above yesterday's close.
'Strong on High Relative Volume' stocks are worth watching because major volume moves tend to indicate underlying activity such as M&A events, material stock news, analyst upgrades, insider buying, buying from 'superinvestors,' or that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. Regardless of the impetus behind the price and volume action, when a stock moves with strength and volume it can indicate the start of a new trend on which early investors can capitalize. In the event of a well-timed trading opportunity, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends and a disciplined trading methodology should help you take the first steps towards investment success..."


Full Article (http://www.thestreet.com/story/13081619/1/orexigen-therapeutics-orex-is-strong-on-high-volume-today.html) (Jim Cramer rates it a sell so that is good news)

[barn32]

Sold my 300 shares of OREX for a $31 profit this morning. Why? The stock was slowly drifting up the past week or so and then this morning when I checked it was up 24¢...and then the next time I looked, about fifteen minutes later, it was down 25¢. Not the kind of price action I like to see on such a cheap, speculative stock.

I'm just going to observe it on the sidelines for a while. If it ends up making a big move without me so be it.

[PICSIX]

Sold my 300 shares of OREX for a $31 profit this morning. Why? The stock was slowly drifting up the past week or so and then this morning when I checked it was up 24¢...and then the next time I looked, about fifteen minutes later, it was down 25¢. Not the kind of price action I like to see on such a cheap, speculative stock.

I'm just going to observe it on the sidelines for a while. If it ends up making a big move without me so be it.

Trading Rules:
1. Protect your capital.
2. Protect your capital.
3. Protect your capital.

[badcompany]

Went short OIL@10.60. It was looking like a big winner until Yellen opened her mouth. I added to the position @10 on the pullback. If it goes back to 10.5, I'll take the small loss.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/07ec8b1746ee7e174361cecee08a3882_zpsyt3ryqwd.jpg

[ReplayRandall]

Went short OIL@10.60. It was looking like a big winner until Yellen opened her mouth. I added to the position @10 on the pullback. If it goes back to 10.5, I'll take the small loss.


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/07ec8b1746ee7e174361cecee08a3882_zpsyt3ryqwd.jpg
Welcome to the club of Ol' Yellen despisers......

[badcompany]

Welcome to the club of Ol' Yellen despisers......

It was like getting taken down by the Stewards at the Fed :mad:

[reckless]

This is what's wrong with the markets these past years.

The markets now trade on every stupid statement made by Yellen and by her last 3-4 predecessors. Then we now have these hucksters that go on CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg and comment of her remarks by belching out what they think Yellen really meant to say, for crissakes.

This isn't investing; this is worse than going to the track or a casino. Why? Because those institutions are playing with our money -- pensions, IRAs, etc.

And, in every previous generation, if there was any Quanitative Easing done by central banks as we have now, the markets would tank, not race higher. And, if there were multiple QEs world-wide as we're seeing now, some real market sage such as B. M. Baruch or John Templeton would say: this isn't working and it must be stopped now. And don't get me started by negative interest rates and flat yield curves.... signals of a depression and market crash. But no, we get record highs on a regular basis.

Everything is upside-down and inside-out. Very little makes sense to me.

[PaceAdvantage]

I thought it was very interesting that at the 2:00pm FED announcement last week, there was no initial head fake, like there usually is...it just went straight up after 2:00pm...that almost never happens...there is usually at least one head fake, and usually more than one before the market takes off in one direction after a FED meeting announcement....

Is anyone but me reading into that at all?

[reckless]

I thought it was very interesting that at the 2:00pm FED announcement last week, there was no initial head fake, like there usually is...it just went straight up after 2:00pm...that almost never happens...there is usually at least one head fake, and usually more than one before the market takes off in one direction after a FED meeting announcement....

Is anyone but me reading into that at all?

I noticed that as well, Mike... it was pretty obvious to me too and I don't have your discerning eyes and ears. :)

I am not a doom and gloomer by any means and actually have aligned myself in the perma bull camp for ages, but, when 'that time comes', so to speak, it will get very nasty very quickly.

But, sadly, when bankers named Goldman or Citi take a real hit, ol' Yeller, err ol' Yellen will come to the rescue. You can bet on that!

[badcompany]

I thought it was very interesting that at the 2:00pm FED announcement last week, there was no initial head fake, like there usually is...it just went straight up after 2:00pm...that almost never happens...there is usually at least one head fake, and usually more than one before the market takes off in one direction after a FED meeting announcement....

Is anyone but me reading into that at all?

The head fake took place earlier in the day. If you look at the chart I posted you'll notice Oil was down about 3% for the day just before the move.

That said, you're right. The initial move after a Fed announcement usually reverses itself. Maybe too many traders were expecting it to happen. What everybody wants, nobody gets.

[PaceAdvantage]

NQ having trouble getting past 4453.50 which is a resistance level from yesterday

Price when posted: 4450.50

[PaceAdvantage]

And just like that, it has closed above resistance for the first time all morning on the 3200 tick chart... :lol:

Price @ 4455

Never mind.

[barn32]

Do you think Apple is going to have a good earnings announcements or what? :lol:

[highnote]

Had to laugh... today is the hottest day so far this year where I live in Connecticut and only one stock in my portfolio is up today -- SKIS -- a ski resort stock. :D

[_______]

Bought KMI/WS at 2.80 on sell off. Small position. Bear article on Barron's that completely misses the point that they are still a pipeline company with fee based income and incur debt only after signing up customers.

Huge debt scare that doesn't exist in the real world.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Redboard whine. I mostly trade futures. Put in a limit order to sell at 2101.50 on the /ES last night - which was exactly at the top of the range around 6:00 AM EDT.

Didn't fill. Argh. A cool $825 slipped through my fingers....

[Ocala Mike]

OK, I'll play. I'm not currently in the market, but I used to have pretty good success SELLING calls on stock that I owned. I don't know if this is a viable trading technique with a volatile stock like AAPL, but I will make a contrarian (to you) play of a purchase of 100 shares of AAPL at the market, close of business today, and a corresponding SALE of a June 125 call, again price at close of business today.

Good luck, as this is only a "mind" bet just to have a little fun.



Options expiration today, I think, so my position unwinds. If my math is right, I invested $12,224 on 3/11, and collected $12500 at close of business today (AAPL closed in the money). Profit of $876 with the sale of the June call vs. a profit of $276 if I just bought and held (less commissions, of course).

I sold the June call at $6.00 even back in March.

[Ocala Mike]

Glad I got out of my "mind bet" on AAPL last month. Stock is barely ahead of where it was 4 months ago, despite everyone in the world touting it as a "buy."

[_______]

Have built a significant position in KMI warrants (KMI/WS) with the intent to roll them over in a non-cash exchange near expiration (5/17).

Paid an average of $2.58 and a fraction so they are underwater right now. But this is a pipeline company with minimal exposure to commodity pricing. They do have a CO2 pipeline business where earnings are tied to WTI. This accounts for less than 20% of top line revenues. The rest is fee based where the higher the volume, the more they earn.

They recently rolled up into a c corporation from an MLP structure and there has been some negative articles published suggesting GAAP P/E ratios (currently north of 40) are now appropriate metrics. It would take several paragraphs to explain why but unless someone is really interested, I'll just note that I think that analysis is flawed.

The stock and warrants are being sold off on this and general energy sector negativity. Since, for the most part, this company's earnings are unrelated to commodity prices, I like this as an entry point.

Warrants are executable at $40/share. The non-cash option lets you exchange the option for market price on a fractional share.

Like Gilead at the end of December, this does seem like a serious mispricing of the underlying security with a long time period for rationality to prevail.

[barn32]

I wanted to hort the ES on the open here in about an hour but I didn't get a chance to do it I guess we'll get to see if I was right or wrong

[barn32]

I wanted to hort the ES on the open here in about an hour but I didn't get a chance to do it I guess we'll get to see if I was right or wrongES down a little, but now that I think about it, going long is probably the better decision for the simple reason that AAPL has been drifting higher, which usually means they are going to have a good earnings announcement. This will push the NQ higher and the whole market will probably follow.

The time to go short for a play will be a few days after the earnings announcement when things have settled down. All of the tech stocks are due for a small retracement.

[barn32]

Went long one ES at 2118.25. Stop Loss-2116.75. Profit stop 2123.25.

I'm only going long one contract overnight. I've been burned too many times trading larger size overnight.

Will post my platform P/L upon closing out.

[barn32]

Went long one ES at 2118.25. Stop Loss-2116.75. Profit stop 2123.25.

I'm only going long one contract overnight. I've been burned too many times trading larger size overnight.

Will post my platform P/L upon closing out.ES went up to within 3 ticks of profit target-raised the stop-got stopped out for $71profit. One minute later went long 2 lots and made a couple of hundred.

Total scalps for the day.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/qznlky.jpg

[parlay]

Hi, hope you dont mind me in your thread. i was hoping someone could explain why the huge divergence in the indexes today. Do they not typically move with a tighter relationship?

[barn32]

Hi, hope you dont mind me in your thread. i was hoping someone could explain why the huge divergence in the indexes today. Do they not typically move with a tighter relationship?Welcome. I've been eying the divergences very carefully today hoping the ES would head to somewhere around -20. But it's not happening.

After thinking about it, I think the DOW is down so much because of IBM, which is somewhat distorting that average.

Other than that it's kind of of a mystery to me too.

[barn32]

Actually, with the DOW down 225, the S&P should be down somewhere around -28, and right now it's down 12.

[parlay]

i just started playing options recently. i am holding some 2100 puts. i am anxious to see the relationship resumed :)

[barn32]

I'm long 200 AAPL at 130.94 going into the close and the earnings announcement. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. I'll just have to sell calls against it for a while.

But if it spikes up 3 or so points I'm going to get out.

[barn32]

I'm short 4 of the 126 AAPL 126 puts, avg. pr. $1.47

I also sold 2 short AAPL strangles 137/125 for $1.91.

Both plays expire on Friday.

[barn32]

I also sold 2 short AAPL strangles 137/125 for $1.91.
I mistakenly sold this strangle instead of buying it, but I was able to get out and do it right with one minute to go.

Cost me about $80.

[barn32]

I just got crushed and this is very painful.

[barn32]

I'm going to have to trade my ass off to get out of this debacle. I'm now long 600 AAPL at 125.09, but it's the puts that have me the most worried. I badly need AAPL to hit 125-126 by Friday to mitigate the damage.

Either way this could take months to recover.

[ReplayRandall]

Welcome. I've been eying the divergences very carefully today hoping the ES would head to somewhere around -20. But it's not happening.

After thinking about it, I think the DOW is down so much because of IBM, which is somewhat distorting that average.

Other than that it's kind of of a mystery to me too.

Here's the real reason:

UTX United Technologies Corporation 102.71 4:04PM EDT Down 7.77 (7.03%) 19,539,510

[Tape Reader]

IMO, opening ES will be the low for the day.

[parlay]

why?looks like they break 2100 and next stop is 2076

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm going to have to trade my ass off to get out of this debacle. I'm now long 600 AAPL at 125.09, but it's the puts that have me the most worried. I badly need AAPL to hit 125-126 by Friday to mitigate the damage.

Either way this could take months to recover.Sorry to hear, but hoping a lesson is learned here.

What you did was nothing more than gambling, and now you are paying the price.

It took me years to stop gambling in the financial markets, and I too paid a price. You are going up against the smartest and most heavily financed groups in the world in one of the most watched stocks in the world and you go in with the attitude "If I'm wrong, I'm wrong?" Sorry to beat up on you when you're down, but really, you and I have no business going to the plate against major league pitching wielding nothing more than a toothpick, which is basically what you did...

[barn32]

Sorry to hear, but hoping a lesson is learned here.

What you did was nothing more than gambling, and now you are paying the price.

It took me years to stop gambling in the financial markets, and I too paid a price. You are going up against the smartest and most heavily financed groups in the world in one of the most watched stocks in the world and you go in with the attitude "If I'm wrong, I'm wrong?" Sorry to beat up on you when you're down, but really, you and I have no business going to the plate against major league pitching wielding nothing more than a toothpick, which is basically what you did...Everything you say is true. I didn't think things through. Had I done so I could have made a winning trade.

That being said, the Market Gods smiled on me today and allowed me to escape with a $350 loss. (It could have been $3-5000.) All trades together I actually ended the day +$100.

Enough is enough. I'm taking a two-week vacation. The only trades I have on are existing spreads.

I need to get away from this for a while.

[badcompany]

The media was acting as though Apple stock fell off a cliff when all it did did was come back to a trading range where it had been for several months.

Meanwhile, anyone who shorted Apple at the open got worked.

[Ocala Mike]

"Trading range" - music to the ears of the conservative investor who's into SELLING covered calls on "hot" stocks that everyone's knocking themselves out BUYING calls on.

[badcompany]

Avago, a supplier of Apple, had a pretty interesting day:

[badcompany]

"Trading range" - music to the ears of the conservative investor who's into SELLING covered calls on "hot" stocks that everyone's knocking themselves out BUYING calls on.

When a huge company starts going sideways, it can get stuck in that range for a long time. I recently went through that with Gilead which went sideways for 9 months before finally breaking out.

[badcompany]

Apple

[barn32]

I missed out on the AAPL short this morning, which kind of "ticks" me off. So I do what I usually do when that happens...find another way to make money on the same underlying.

So I sold 5 of the AUG 7 109 puts for .39¢. If AAPL stays at 109 or higher by Friday close I'll make $200 (which kind of makes up for some of what I missed out on today) or I'll own 500 shares of AAPL at 109, which I don't see as a bad thing.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I missed out on the AAPL short this morning, which kind of "ticks" me off. So I do what I usually do when that happens...find another way to make money on the same underlying.

So I sold 5 of the AUG 7 109 puts for .39¢. If AAPL stays at 109 or higher by Friday close I'll make $200 (which kind of makes up for some of what I missed out on today) or I'll own 500 shares of AAPL at 109, which I don't see as a bad thing.

Looks like $109 is the low end of this prediction.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-a-deeper-dive-by-apple-could-crush-this-market-2015-08-04

I don't follow Apple much, 'cause I have no vested interest in any of their products, but as a stock goes they have been incredible. Since joining the DOW though, they've declined 7% - apparently it's a jinx of some sort.....