ultracapper
01-29-2015, 05:26 AM
We have gone around and around about Jon White's ML at Santa Anita for months now, but it needs to be viewed from an advantageous standpoint.
I handicapped the hell out of the last 2 races of 1/29/2015 card at SA before I viewed the ML. In particular I thought the 8th looked way under-layed when I first saw the odds, and man, is it ever.
SA has a 15.43% take from the win pool, meaning if you add the points assigned for all the odds of each horse, you should come up with 116-122. I added all the final odds for the races run last Saturday, and 1 race came up 117, another 118, 3 = 119, 4=120, and the 5 horse field came in at 125. Small fields will do that.
Mr. White has the 8th race this Thursday at 139. Yes, one-thirty-nine.
This means we will see a couple of those 4/1 and 8/1 ML entries float to 5 and 6, and 10 to 12. It's pure math, there's nothing else to it. Some of those odds must float up. You can't make 2 and 2 equal 5. Considering he does this all the time, it is imperative that you never walk away from a horse you like at SA because of the morning line odds until you see the betting get started. It may be your horse that floats up to an acceptable price. And this 8th isn't an anomaly. He makes these impossible MLs every race. Yes, every race. We've all noticed it.
BTW, the 7th came in at 133. Something will have to float up there also, but the final odds for the 8th isn't going to look anything like the ML. Geez, one of the 3 or 4 shortest price horses in the race could win, and pay 4 to 6 bucks more on a $2 win ticket than the ML suggested, and still be right in line in relation to the other favorites in the race. The 4/1 co2nd favorites on his ML could float to 6 or 7 to 1 and still be the 3rd or 4th favorite in the race, just as the ML suggests.
I'm kind of thinking about not ragging on this guy anymore. He could become my best friend. I love when my ML 4/1 wins at 6/1, like it should have been in the first place.
I handicapped the hell out of the last 2 races of 1/29/2015 card at SA before I viewed the ML. In particular I thought the 8th looked way under-layed when I first saw the odds, and man, is it ever.
SA has a 15.43% take from the win pool, meaning if you add the points assigned for all the odds of each horse, you should come up with 116-122. I added all the final odds for the races run last Saturday, and 1 race came up 117, another 118, 3 = 119, 4=120, and the 5 horse field came in at 125. Small fields will do that.
Mr. White has the 8th race this Thursday at 139. Yes, one-thirty-nine.
This means we will see a couple of those 4/1 and 8/1 ML entries float to 5 and 6, and 10 to 12. It's pure math, there's nothing else to it. Some of those odds must float up. You can't make 2 and 2 equal 5. Considering he does this all the time, it is imperative that you never walk away from a horse you like at SA because of the morning line odds until you see the betting get started. It may be your horse that floats up to an acceptable price. And this 8th isn't an anomaly. He makes these impossible MLs every race. Yes, every race. We've all noticed it.
BTW, the 7th came in at 133. Something will have to float up there also, but the final odds for the 8th isn't going to look anything like the ML. Geez, one of the 3 or 4 shortest price horses in the race could win, and pay 4 to 6 bucks more on a $2 win ticket than the ML suggested, and still be right in line in relation to the other favorites in the race. The 4/1 co2nd favorites on his ML could float to 6 or 7 to 1 and still be the 3rd or 4th favorite in the race, just as the ML suggests.
I'm kind of thinking about not ragging on this guy anymore. He could become my best friend. I love when my ML 4/1 wins at 6/1, like it should have been in the first place.