Horses weight as handicapping factor

[luisbe]

Is there publication depicting horses weight before a race?
The reason I asked is the fact that any athlete with either under or over weight will not perform at its best.
I know this is only for 5yo and up.
I.e.: just suppose trainer JohnDoe starts a horse weighing 80 pounds lighter (or heavier) than the weight showed during its peak performances, would you still consider it a contender?

I'm sure all horses are weighed before a race, how long before?

[Tom]

Not listed in any PPS and widespread weighing probably not done.

[lamboguy]

Greyhounds get weighed not race horses

[Frost king]

All good trainers have scales to weigh there horses. It is an important factor in knowing what is going on in a horse. Trainer A claims a horse, lays him off one month, and the horse comes back, 50 lbs heavier. Is it fat or muscle? Same thing with a two year old? If they come back in the spring 150-200 lbs heavier, they have grown over the winter. If the same or a marginal weight gain, the horse has remained static, and very little improvement is expected. More important than people think.

[turninforhome10]

Try playing Hong Kong races. I have made the switch and am finding it challenging, it is nice to have all the info the HKJC provides. http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meeting/RaceCard/english/
You can look at the declared weight and using the pp's see if they have gained or lost since last race. After playing Hong Kong, I really like the fact that they disclose everything. US racing could learn alot about how to conduct races by mirroring the HKJC model.
And as far as weighing horses go, high dollar trainers may have scales, but coming from a smaller operation, we used a tape measure that measures the girth and a conversion is made to give us the approx. weight.

[whodoyoulike]

Greyhounds get weighed not race horses

Why do you think tracks don't provide the weights? Is it costs? I've seen a number of warehouses scales which can provide the info.

I've been wanting this info for years. It appears the other responses concur.

[davew]

I remember seeing horse weights somewhere before, not sure if it was a different country or chariot races (pacers/trotters).

[Dave Schwartz]

As I recall, TP had weights in their local program a decade or so ago. People told me that it was a very interesting stat.

Unfortunately, it never caught on.

[Cratos]

Why do you think tracks don't provide the weights? Is it costs? I've seen a number of warehouses scales which can provide the info.

I've been wanting this info for years. It appears the other responses concur.

It might be cost, but that is the cost of during business; providing quality service to your customers.

[luisbe]

The cost of a scale? I don't think so.
I believe trainers have that info periodically.
I've checked the Hong Kong link above and the trainers have to supply that info in the entry form, mandatory.

[davew]

The cost of a scale? I don't think so.
I believe trainers have that info periodically.
I've checked the Hong Kong link above and the trainers have to supply that info in the entry form, mandatory.


I think the problem would be getting the info in time to publish in ?program, pp, whatever? and then checking it at race time, and then deciding what to do if the weight is off by some increment. What would happen if the horse ran 30 pounds heavier or lighter than what was posted?

[whodoyoulike]

I think the problem would be getting the info in time to publish in ?program, pp, whatever? and then checking it at race time, and then deciding what to do if the weight is off by some increment. What would happen if the horse ran 30 pounds heavier or lighter than what was posted?

I see your point. Maybe they'll have the announcer broadcast and the tracks post similar to over weights.

Something like Horse A - 150 lbs. over/under etc. It's not insurmountable.

[Tom]

I see your point. Maybe they'll have the announcer broadcast and the tracks post similar to over weights.

Something like Horse A - 150 lbs. over/under etc. It's not insurmountable.

It's all insurmountable. Racing can do very little right.
Over-lapping post times, incorrect timing.....and no significant action to ever fix it. Forget it, racing is not a real sport or game and never will be. It is a fringe event where customers do not count. If you wnat modern technology, go to a high school track meet.

[Frost king]

If they can weigh dogs before races, they can surely do horses. The old adage still exists on the race track, when it comes to be people from outside the flock. "Just shovel the shit on them like mushrooms, and keep them in the dark."

[cj]

If they can weigh dogs before races, they can surely do horses. The old adage still exists on the race track, when it comes to be people from outside the flock. "Just shovel the shit on them like mushrooms, and keep them in the dark."

They used to do it at Freehold and published the weights in the PPs. They would announce "day of race" weights prior to the race, and I remember people frantically scribbling the weight into the program. I never found it particularly useful, weights were all over the place and didn't seem to have much if any correlation to performance.

[Cratos]

The horse's weight is the single most important variable in determining its fitness for a peak performance.

There are very good formulas which have been used for calculating a horse's energy use with respect to its performance.

The weight of a horse should be taken at time of the horse's race entry submission and verified again when the horse is brought to the paddock for saddling.

A major benefit to the bettors is the recognition of possible ill health or poor fitness of the horse.

No, revealing the weight of the horse to the betting public is not an assurance that the horse is fit for the race, but by doing so the bettors will have some measurement of the horse's health given publicly by the horse's connections.

[Tom]

The weight of a horse should be taken at time of the horse's race entry submission and verified again when the horse is brought to the paddock for saddling.

You're looking to put a scale in the paddock?

[BIG49010]

Remington Park did it back about the time of their plastic track, I remember them talking about it on a TV broadcast. Equitrack was that what their poly was called?

[whodoyoulike]

The horse's weight is the single most important variable in determining its fitness for a peak performance...

A major benefit to the bettors is the recognition of possible ill health or poor fitness of the horse...

This is what I was also thinking but, I'm uncertain whether it's the most important variable. I think Ainslie even mentioned something like this in the first handicapping book I ever read. I recall authors noting that if you were aware whether horses were "off their feed" that would be very good info.

Any trainers or other connections want to comment?

Thanks,

[Cratos]

This is what I was also thinking but, I'm uncertain whether it's the most important variable. I think Ainslie even mentioned something like this in the first handicapping book I ever read. I recall authors noting that if you were aware whether horses were "off their feed" that would be very good info.

Any trainers or other connections want to comment?

Thanks,

I wasn't attempting to be dramatic with my assertion and I don't believe that was your assertion.

However I do believe whether it is an animal-being or human-being, weight fluctuation is a significant variable in determining physical performance.

[turninforhome10]

I wasn't attempting to be dramatic with my assertion and I don't believe that was your assertion.

However I do believe whether it is an animal-being or human-being, weight fluctuation is a significant variable in determining physical performance.

Coming from both the people and animal side on this, I could not agree more.
Weight stability and the ability to retain and even gain weight during training is a strong indicator of a healthy animal.
One of the first indication of disease in humans in weight instability.
From the training side, a horse goes through 3 phases
Early training- trading fat stores for muscle stores. Hope to keep the horse on their feed and even gain weight as they are "legging up".
Race training- As the foundation is being completed, putting "air" into the horse is a pivotal time. If horse lacks appetite at this stage, training might be taking a toll. Weight should be stable.
Maintenance-Once a horse "tucks up", keeping their appetite is critical as high calorie demand of both repairing and maintaining their weight is critical.

Not all horses maintain weight the same. I will use 3 quick examples based on 3 horses I actually trained.
Filly A- Was a bit hyperthyroid and metabolism was really high. She ate like a bird. Little bits of food all morning and would never dive into her tub. She would carry about 980-1010 and was taller and lanky. During training you had to work really hard and monitor her weight daily. If she started to loose weight you had to back off. If she kept her weight on through the first 3 weeks, she was golden. We could get 2 or 3 races over 6-8 weeks and she would loose weight after each race. We knew it was time to take her for R&R when she dropped 150 or more and after 5-7 days would not put it back on. She was measured daily with a weight tape.
Gelding B-Watched this one from a baby and he was a quiet unassuming type, but he loved his feed. When coming in as a 2 and 3 yr old, he would train so well and easily, plus that with a high calorie diet he get fat as a rat. It would take 2 or 3 races for him to tuck up and would gain up to 150 pounds in the process. As a 4 yo his metabolism matured and he came in and won first out paying 98 dollars to win.
Filly C- Very small 900 lb soaking wet type router, older mare that ate like a champ when she was going to run well and the first sign of her weight changing either told you to enter her or shelf her for 2 weeks. Her weight would have to stay either higher or static or this was the first sign that her old ankle was starting to flare up, usually before any inflammation was carried.
So while every horse is different, I feel there are 3 stages of weight.
Transformation of sedentary weight to fitness weight. Looking for the target.
Once fitness weight is obtained, muscle weight is obtained and this is the pivotal weight to see if the horse is really taking to the training.
The combination of muscle weight and fitness weight together make the horse the complete athlete. Once the horse is legged up, has air, and is race fit with a good tuck and a tight gaskin, this is IMHO the ideal weight.

To be able to put that pattern together with data reported by the tracks would be a big help for me as I have already been using it to determine form at Sha Tin.
The closest that I can come in the US is to take careful paddock notes, pay attention to workouts, and see how trainers are entering with regard to the condition book.
The more I play Hong Kong, the more I realize how much the U.S. is still very much like the "wild west".

[Tom]

Serious question - if weights were reported, would you believe them?

[Frost king]

The same way you believe workouts in the morning.

[turninforhome10]

Serious question - if weights were reported, would you believe them?
If the penalty for misreporting a weight was strict and uniformly enforced with a precedent for being penalized, Yes I would.

[Tom]

If the penalty for misreporting a weight was strict and uniformly enforced with a precedent for being penalized, Yes I would.

Like DRUGS are today? :rolleyes:

[turninforhome10]

Like DRUGS are today? :rolleyes:
In every jurisdiction for the most part with exception to U.S. racing.



Since working nights and playing a lot more foreign tracks, for what I have given up with regards to canned data for U.S. tracks, the data that is available for free that is way more in depth and actually reported is phenomenal.
The fact that you joke about it Tom, does not really bother me as much as the apathy for an industry that does not really believe that it actually can change.
In my mind the solution is to treat the player as a potential owner just like the stock market and provide all the data for free. How the data is parceled out after that is everybody else's problem. Compare it to the stock market.
Could you find enough data for free to make an informed buying decision?
Is the data you find going to be correct? How does this level of information that is available for the stock market compare to what we accept in horse racing.
I could buy a stock with the info, but no way would I claim a horse based on the info. I could claim a horse in Hong Kong, no problem as the entire history of the horse is public property.
And what I find kind of funny about it, is that our industry is just responding to a dying fan base by increasing the amount of wagers available, and creating more and more casino fueled courses to keep our mind furthered scrambled.

I would venture to guess there are more than of us that would pay 4 times what we are paying for data, for taped morning works, a barn to paddock cam including cool out, and access to all vet records, including the aforementioned weight.

[cj]

I'd like to hear from those that actually use the horse's weight as a betting angle. Because like I said, at Freehold, the theory didn't match the reality. Weights were all over the place and didn't match up to performance most of the time. They had a scale and it wasn't like the trainer was reporting the weight and fudging, they were accurate race day weights.

[Cratos]

[QUOTE=turninforhome10]In every jurisdiction for the most part with exception to U.S. racing.



Since working nights and playing a lot more foreign tracks, for what I have given up with regards to canned data for U.S. tracks, the data that is available for free that is way more in depth and actually reported is phenomenal.
The fact that you joke about it Tom, does not really bother me as much as the apathy for an industry that does not really believe that it actually can change.
In my mind the solution is to treat the player as a potential owner just like the stock market and provide all the data for free. How the data is parceled out after that is everybody else's problem. Compare it to the stock market.
Could you find enough data for free to make an informed buying decision?
Is the data you find going to be correct? How does this level of information that is available for the stock market compare to what we accept in horse racing.
I could buy a stock with the info, but no way would I claim a horse based on the info. I could claim a horse in Hong Kong, no problem as the entire history of the horse is public property.
And what I find kind of funny about it, is that our industry is just responding to a dying fan base by increasing the amount of wagers available, and creating more and more casino fueled courses to keep our mind furthered scrambled.

I would venture to guess there are more than of us that would pay 4 times what we are paying for data, for taped morning works, a barn to paddock cam including cool out, and access to all vet records, including the aforementioned weight.[/QUOTE ]
Another great well expressed post!!!!

[Greyfox]

Over the Christmas period my weight went up. I'm definitely slower in January.

(Intuitively, I'm inclined to think that knowing a horse's weight is next to useless, unless you know the weight that it was when it turned in an optimal performance.)

[Cratos]

I'd like to hear from those that actually use the horse's weight as a betting angle. Because like I said, at Freehold, the theory didn't match the reality. Weights were all over the place and didn't match up to performance most of the time. They had a scale and it wasn't like the trainer was reporting the weight and fudging, they were accurate race day weights.

I don't doubt your experience at Freehold, but the science and the practice supports the evidence that the weight of the animal is essential in determining its fitness for a good performance.

Therefore the real question should not be why "weight" matter, but why the racetracks are not collecting or urging the data providers to collect it and provide it to the bettors with the rest of the data they currently provide to the bettors.

[cj]

I don't doubt your experience at Freehold, but the science and the practice supports the evidence that the weight of the animal is essential in determining its fitness for a good performance.

Therefore the real question should not be why "weight" matter, but why the racetracks are not collecting or urging the data providers to collect it and provide it to the bettors with the rest of the data they currently provide to the bettors.

I'm all for giving the information, as much as possible. Maybe it would be beneficial, maybe not, but we won't know until we have it.

[Cratos]

Over the Christmas period my weight went up. I'm definitely slower in January.

(Intuitively, I'm inclined to think that knowing a horse's weight is next to useless, unless you know the weight that it was when it turned in an optimal performance.)

You are correct, but if the data providers were collecting the horse's weight data historically you would get the "pattern" you are seeking.

Incidentally, single points of any data are never good predictors.

[cj]

Over the Christmas period my weight went up. I'm definitely slower in January.

(Intuitively, I'm inclined to think that knowing a horse's weight is next to useless, unless you know the weight that it was when it turned in an optimal performance.)


That was the thing at Freehold, they gave you the weight today and for past races, so you could compare. The horses raced every week and you'd still see big fluctuations from week to week, both up and down, and didn't seem to matter in regards to performance. Maybe thoroughbreds are different.

That is why I asked if anyone here has actually studied the weights on horses in Hong Kong or elsewhere. That data is out there. Telling me what it should mean doesn't help me much if it doesn't play out in real life.

[Cratos]

That was the thing at Freehold, they gave you the weight today and for past races, so you could compare. The horses raced every week and you'd still see big fluctuations from week to week, both up and down, and didn't seem to matter in regards to performance. Maybe thoroughbreds are different.

That is why I asked if anyone here has actually studied the weights on horses in Hong Kong or elsewhere. That data is out there. Telling me what it should mean doesn't help me much if it doesn't play out in real life.
What the weight will tell you immediately if the calculations are done correctly is the energy expenditure by the horse during the race with respect to time and distance.

Somewhere on this forum I have posted an Excel spreadsheet that would make such calculations

[Tom]

The fact that you joke about it Tom, does not really bother me as much as the apathy for an industry that does not really believe that it actually can change.

What can you do but joke about it.
Surely t-bred racing deserves no respect from its customers?
How many years has it been since Beyer wrote about bad timing at Gulfstream and yet they STILL haven't figured it out. And on Tuesdays, with three tacks running, they overlay post times.

Come on, there is a reason the game is treated like a minor league sport - it is. And it will never be anything more.

The people in charge are minor league -this is as good as it will ever be.

[turninforhome10]

You are correct, but if the data providers were collecting the horse's weight data historically you would get the "pattern" you are seeking.

Incidentally, single points of any data are never good predictors.
And from a trainers perspective, the pattern is the target. When the horse "is dead right". This is when you sigh a little relief and want to find a race suitable for optimum effort. When you " have them right where you want them".

[turninforhome10]

What can you do but joke about it.
Surely t-bred racing deserves no respect from its customers?
How many years has it been since Beyer wrote about bad timing at Gulfstream and yet they STILL haven't figured it out. And on Tuesdays, with three tacks running, they overlay post times.

Come on, there is a reason the game is treated like a minor league sport - it is. And it will never be anything more.

The people in charge are minor league -this is as good as it will ever be.
If U.S. racing could ever, truly present a product totally aboveboard with a focus on presenting each animal with full disclosure of all relevant data that would be required for purchasing the animal as a claim, the money generated in sales tax alone would begin to help the players present a better argument for reduced takeout and more thorough data.

[whodoyoulike]

You're looking to put a scale in the paddock?

The ones I've seen don't take up very much space and could handle weights I believe were in the 5k or 10k range.

As turninforhome10 mentioned, you'd need a historical trend to determine an acceptable weight range. I briefly reviewed the HK PP's but they showed the weights by horse on separate individual pages. I found it difficult going back and forth between horses. I'd have preferred it presented as PP's which I was more familiar.

As for CJ's comment, the weights were all over the place that really surprises me because I agree with Cratos' and some of the others comments.

Right now, the only ones with info on whether a horse is "off their feed" is the barn connections. Now, if they would come out before a race and say "I'm not betting XX because he's not eating" it might help me.

[Cratos]

HThe ones I've seen don't take up very much space and could handle weights I believe were in the 5k or 10k range.

As turninforhome10 mentioned, you'd need a historical trend to determine an acceptable weight range. I briefly reviewed the HK PP's but they showed the weights by horse on separate individual pages. I found it difficult going back and forth between horses. I'd have preferred it presented as PP's which I was more familiar.

As for CJ's comment, the weights were all over the place that really surprises me because I agree with Cratos' and some of the others comments.

Right now, the only ones with info on whether a horse is "off their feed" is the barn connections. Now, if they would come out before a race and say "I'm not betting XX because he's not eating" it might help me.
A very insightful post and each bettor who is wagering his/her money deserves to have the best info available or info that could be made available about the horse's fitness before the race.

[Tom]

We deserve a lot more than we get today.
I do not see it getting any better ever.
Racing is not a game with a great future.

[traynor]

H
A very insightful post and each bettor who is wagering his/her money deserves to have the best info available or info that could be made available about the horse's fitness before the race.

I don't there is much place for "deserves" in a market-driven economy. People tend to get what they are willing to pay for. If they are willing to pay for inaccurate, incomplete information, there is little motivation for anyone to provide anything else.

If everyone stopped betting (and stopped buying the incomplete and inaccurate information currently available) because they believe they deserve better information, the situation would change rapidly. Until then, comments about what bettors "deserve" have little or no relevance.

If one does not like the product(s) as offered, one can always choose not to buy. It is really as simple as that.

[Cratos]

I don't there is much place for "deserves" in a market-driven economy. People tend to get what they are willing to pay for. If they are willing to pay for inaccurate, incomplete information, there is little motivation for anyone to provide anything else.

If everyone stopped betting (and stopped buying the incomplete and inaccurate information currently available) because they believe they deserve better information, the situation would change rapidly. Until then, comments about what bettors "deserve" have little or no relevance.

If one does not like the product(s) as offered, one can always choose not to buy. It is really as simple as that.
I enjoy reading your posts ( and I am not patronizing you),because you are a good writer and typically writes with cogitation about the subject matter.

However on this one, your criticism of my usage of the word "deserves" departed from your normal wit and intellect.

[Tom]

The game would never draw enough to people support it at higher prices.

[thaskalos]

I enjoy reading your posts ( and I am not patronizing you),because you are a good writer and typically writes with cogitation about the subject matter.

However on this one, your criticism of my usage of the word "deserves" departed from your normal wit and intellect.
Traynor is an excellent writer...and -- as excellent writers do -- he chooses his words very carefully. He didn't criticize your "usage" of the word deserves; he questioned whether what a horseplayer thinks he "deserves" has anything to do with what he ultimately GETS. If we horseplayers REALLY "deserve" to have better handicapping information available to us, then we should take active steps in demanding that such information become available. Otherwise...we don't really "deserve" ANYTHING.

[whodoyoulike]

I don't there is much place for "deserves" in a market-driven economy. People tend to get what they are willing to pay for. If they are willing to pay for inaccurate, incomplete information, there is little motivation for anyone to provide anything else.

If everyone stopped betting (and stopped buying the incomplete and inaccurate information currently available) because they believe they deserve better information, the situation would change rapidly. Until then, comments about what bettors "deserve" have little or no relevance.

If one does not like the product(s) as offered, one can always choose not to buy. It is really as simple as that.

I think you've taken Cratos' use of the word out of context.

And, "cogitation" is not exactly the word I would've used.

[Cratos]

I think you've taken Cratos' use of the word out of context.

And, "cogitation" is not exactly the word I would've used.
I understood Traynor's reply and from reading many of his posts he appears to be adept in the study of psychology.

However his mixing it with an economics concept. of demand is confusing to me

"Cogitation" was used because Traynor writes typically very thoughtful

[whodoyoulike]

I understood Traynor's reply and from reading many of his posts he appears to be adept in the study of psychology.

However his mixing it with an economics concept. of demand is confusing to me

"Cogitation" was used because Traynor writes typically very thoughtful


I also understood his reply. And, I agree he must have studied psychology not realizing that this field of study utilizes extensive use of sampling techniques. I state this because of his repeated criticism of sampling.

Also, I understood why you used the word "cogitation" but, I've seen a number of his posts and I recognize it as a dialect of horse which I'm unfamiliar. But, I usually recognize horse when I see it.

[Cratos]

I also understood his reply. And, I agree he must have studied psychology not realizing that this field of study utilizes extensive use of sampling techniques. I state this because of his repeated criticism of sampling.

Also, I understood why you used the word "cogitation" but, I've seen a number of his posts and I recognize it as a dialect of horse which I'm unfamiliar. But, I usually recognize horse when I see it.

Thanks, you are very insightful.

[Magister Ludi]

I know this is only for 5yo and up. Not true.
I.e.: just suppose trainer JohnDoe starts a horse weighing 80 pounds lighter (or heavier) than the weight showed during its peak performances, would you still consider it a contender?

In a whole-body bioenergetic model of thoroughbred racehorses, there are three terms which account for total energy expenditure: kinetic energy, cost of transport, and aerodynamic drag. Of the three terms, only two are affected by the horse’s body weight: kinetic energy and cost of transport. Kinetic energy = 2(1/T) * (1 + (w/W)) * (D/T)^2 and cost of transport = C_R * (1 + (w/W)) * (D/T), where

w = total weight carried by horse = impost + jockey weight
W = weight of horse
C_R = cost of running =~ 3.7 J/kg/m

When w increases and/or W decreases, total equine energy expenditure increases because both kinetic energy and cost of transport energy expenditure increase. Conversely, a decrease in w and/or an increase in W result in a decrease of total energy expenditure.

tldr: An 80-pound decrease in a horse’s weight is a negative factor.

[ReplayRandall]

tldr: An 80-pound decrease in a horse’s weight is a negative factor.

When dealing with older horses, if weight loss can be proven is majority of fat, a decrease of 80 pounds could be seen as a positive fitness factor......

[Cratos]

In a whole-body bioenergetic model of thoroughbred racehorses, there are three terms which account for total energy expenditure: kinetic energy, cost of transport, and aerodynamic drag. Of the three terms, only two are affected by the horse’s body weight: kinetic energy and cost of transport. Kinetic energy = 2(1/T) * (1 + (w/W)) * (D/T)^2 and cost of transport = C_R * (1 + (w/W)) * (D/T), where

w = total weight carried by horse = impost + jockey weight
W = weight of horse
C_R = cost of running =~ 3.7 J/kg/m

When w increases and/or W decreases, total equine energy expenditure increases because both kinetic energy and cost of transport energy expenditure increase. Conversely, a decrease in w and/or an increase in W result in a decrease of total energy expenditure.

tldr: An 80-pound decrease in a horse’s weight is a negative factor.

Magistri Ludi,
As always you give very straightforward quantitative replies and this forum should be appreciative of your contributions.

[luisbe]

In a whole-body bioenergetic model of thoroughbred racehorses, there are three terms which account for total energy expenditure: kinetic energy, cost of transport, and aerodynamic drag. Of the three terms, only two are affected by the horse’s body weight: kinetic energy and cost of transport. Kinetic energy = 2(1/T) * (1 + (w/W)) * (D/T)^2 and cost of transport = C_R * (1 + (w/W)) * (D/T), where

w = total weight carried by horse = impost + jockey weight
W = weight of horse
C_R = cost of running =~ 3.7 J/kg/m

When w increases and/or W decreases, total equine energy expenditure increases because both kinetic energy and cost of transport energy expenditure increase. Conversely, a decrease in w and/or an increase in W result in a decrease of total energy expenditure.

tldr: An 80-pound decrease in a horse’s weight is a negative factor.

You can't consider weight gain in a developing horse, that's why it'd be not relevant although weight loss wouldn't be good in such as case.
On the other hand I wasn't thinking of energy expenditure, I believe is more important in the majority of races all over the country, claimers. I consider it a great handicapping factor to know whether a trainer is presenting a horse ready to give the best effort just by comparing its past and present weight; other handicapping tools may be irrelevant if a horse is either under or over its
weight compared to a peak performance.

[Cratos]

You can't consider weight gain in a developing horse, that's why it'd be not relevant although weight loss wouldn't be good in such as case.
On the other hand I wasn't thinking of energy expenditure, I believe is more important in the majority of races all over the country, claimers. I consider it a great handicapping factor to know whether a trainer is presenting a horse ready to give the best effort just by comparing its past and present weight; other handicapping tools may be irrelevant if a horse is either under or over its
weight compared to a peak performance.
Explain why you cannot consider weight gain in a developing horse; each race is just a trial.

Energy expenditure is fundamental to this calculation.

[luisbe]

Explain why you cannot consider weight gain in a developing horse; each race is just a trial.

Energy expenditure is fundamental to this calculation.

Developing horses gain muscular weight not fat, but this is possible in a 5yo coming back from a lay off of, let's say, 60-90 days or being underweight after several efforts without resting as we can see in uncountable claimer races.
For energy expenditure it'd be interesting knowing the weight before and after a race, info that trainers have available for sure.

[Frost king]

So young horses not gaining any weight is not important? To me, especially after a layoff, would tend to show me, there was no development and maturity going on. The horse has remained static. Also after a claim, if the horse all of a sudden puts on 50lbs and wins, is that not significant? How do you know, that horses don't improve, from moving barns, because of better husbandry? It could be nothing more, worming a horse more often, thereby increasing feed conversion ratio, and you have a better performing animal in the short term. If all the horses showed this pattern after moving to the new barn, you would know what is going on. They don't all feed the same grain and vitamins. If you have never raised animals, then you have no clue how important diet and maintaining the proper weight has to do with performance. Horses receive different diets, when they, are on the farm, vrs just training, and then for racing. It makes a huge difference in the performance of animals.

[Tom]

Top class young, developing horse make big speed figure moves as they mature. Improving a Beyer by 15-30 points is not at all uncommon. some come back and pair up, others contnne to forge ahead, while others are now done forever. I would love to see how the animal's weight varied during those important cycles.

[cato]

When Remington Park first opened it did it for a couple of years (?) one year? and (a) no one was able to retire as a result of the the profits they were able to pocket playing the "weights" and (b) they discontinued it because it was a pain and no one seemed interested.

Neither of these tidbits is controlling on the issue but I thought they were relevant.

At best, it might allow one to eliminate a horse that has lost a lot of weight but if it has lost a decent % of that weight it is unlikely to be running and/or those people who care about this sort of thing would most likely be able to spot it by just looking at that poor, sick animal.

Lots of other issues that need to be corrected and improved in the horse racing biz before we get around to dealing with race day (o close to race day) weights.

Cheers, Cato

[thaskalos]

When Remington Park first opened it did it for a couple of years (?) one year? and (a) no one was able to retire as a result of the the profits they were able to pocket playing the "weights" and (b) they discontinued it because it was a pain and no one seemed interested.

Neither of these tidbits is controlling on the issue but I thought they were relevant.

At best, it might allow one to eliminate a horse that has lost a lot of weight but if it has lost a decent % of that weight it is unlikely to be running and/or those people who care about this sort of thing would most likely be able to spot it by just looking at that poor, sick animal.

Lots of other issues that need to be corrected and improved in the horse racing biz before we get around to dealing with race day (o close to race day) weights.

Cheers, Cato

Even if the tracks provided the weight measurements of these horses on a daily basis...I wouldn't be convinced of their accuracy. In a game where the track can't even be counted upon to accurately time the handful of races that it cards daily...how are we supposed to expect it to accurately weigh all these horses?

From a betting standpoint...misinformation is worse than no information at all.

[DeltaLover]

If the weight of the horse becomes part of the past performances, any handicapping edge that might be associated with it, will eventually disappear.

[Cratos]

If the weight of the horse becomes part of the past performances, any handicapping edge that might be associated with it, will eventually disappear.
Why should giving the bettor additional information be perceived as an "edge"?

Within this thread a poster who appear from the. content of. his posts to know a lot about the health and welfare of a racehorse as it relates to weight; and. that person think giving the bettor weight data is good.

What baffles me is the critics of change and they are the first ones cry and moan about losing.

[traynor]

If the weight of the horse becomes part of the past performances, any handicapping edge that might be associated with it, will eventually disappear.

The same could be said for any other data in the past performances. As Katherine Jung has pointed out on a number of occasions, the value of information varies inversely with the number of people who have that information. If that information is readily available to all (or a large number) its value will rapidly diminish. Any edge associated with that information will disappear much faster than the term "eventually" suggests.

None of which is comment on the possible value associated with knowing the weight of race horses--only that the ready availability of information tends to diminish its value in gaining an edge in wagering.

[green80]

Is there publication depicting horses weight before a race?
The reason I asked is the fact that any athlete with either under or over weight will not perform at its best.
I know this is only for 5yo and up.
I.e.: just suppose trainer JohnDoe starts a horse weighing 80 pounds lighter (or heavier) than the weight showed during its peak performances, would you still consider it a contender?

I'm sure all horses are weighed before a race, how long before?


I have been racing horses for over 30 years and have never seen a horse weighed before or after a race. Never saw one weighed at the track even.
Although the info may be helpful, I have not seen it disclosed anywhere.

[whodoyoulike]

I have been racing horses for over 30 years and have never seen a horse weighed before or after a race. Never saw one weighed at the track even.
Although the info may be helpful, I have not seen it disclosed anywhere.

Did you consider a horse's weight significant?

If so, how did you weigh them or did you use an alternative method?

[green80]

Did you consider a horse's weight significant?

If so, how did you weigh them or did you use an alternative method?


Their weight is not significant. A change in weight most times is. Any trainer worth his salt should be able to look at his horses and tell which ones are gaining or losing weight. Losing weight is not a good sign, usually the horse is hurting or sick. There is never a standard in racing. I once knew a trainer that fed his horses lightly, they all looked underweight but he held his own in the standings and his horses won at an average rate.

[whodoyoulike]

... A change in weight most times is...Losing weight is not a good sign, usually the horse is hurting or sick...

This is why I consider weight important but, given the lack of available info I'm unable to incorporate it in my handicapping.

It may be one of my missing links.

[sammy the sage]

Their weight is not significant. A change in weight most times is. Any trainer worth his salt should be able to look at his horses and tell which ones are gaining or losing weight. Losing weight is not a good sign, usually the horse is hurting or sick. There is never a standard in racing. I once knew a trainer that fed his horses lightly, they all looked underweight but he held his own in the standings and his horses won at an average rate.

total BS...it F'g a does MATTER....esp in BIG races...take the Triple crown for instance...everybody KNOWS after THE fact of course that Super Savor lost 100lbs...

I then posted a thread here later...http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=103451&highlight=weight

and DESPITE the fact that I pm'd him THE proof...was never unlocked or no apology offered...oh well :rolleyes:

it was later CONFIRMED by news sources that 2 of the 3 mentioned DID in fact lose considerable weight....

but if you don't think weight matters...damn GLAD you're IN THE pools!

[Tom]

Sammy, read his post.
That is exactly what he said.

Where's his apology? :D

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The paddock analyst from the Hong Kong crew, Jenny Chapman, mentions the weight changes all the time when discussing the fitness and appearance of the horses in the walking ring. There's no doubt in my mind it's a serious handicapping factor. From what I can tell so far, significant weight changes (+ or - 25 lbs) usually means a poorer performance.

I'd be so bold as to speculate that the main reason we don't see weights for horses in North America is the patterns would correlate with performance, and would be more drastic than what you see overseas - because of drugs.

[luisbe]

I'd be so bold as to speculate that the main reason we don't see weights for horses in North America is the patterns would correlate with performance, ...

Thank you! That's why I started this thread. Days between races would be fine, a drill once a week, etc. but what if I was 10% trainer that want to make my income larger? the weight of my horse can make it happen.

[davew]

It would be interesting to watch weight gain during 2 year-old and early 3 year-old campaigns. I am not sure how it would help pick the winner in the Kentucky Derby.

[Cratos]

It would be interesting to watch weight gain during 2 year-old and early 3 year-old campaigns. I am not sure how it would help pick the winner in the Kentucky Derby.
To me the weight factor has multiple dimensions.

The probable most important of which is fitness. Is the horse's at the correct body weight for its fitness to perform at its optimal level?

The second dimension is twofold. Is the horse's over weight or under weight?

The last dimension is what is the weight of horse and can it generated enougjh force from its energy to overcome the inevitable external speed retardants and win?

Therefore it becomes. clear that weight plays an intergal and important part in both assessing and predicting the horse's race performance.