TimeformUS analysis of Futurity

[zico20]

Just finished reading the article on their picks for Saturdays Los Alamitos Futurity. They pick Firing Line to win. Their reasoning is he has the best time by a wide margin. Okay, so he does. I hope that isn't the only way they try to pick winners. That will send you to the poor house. Timeform fails to comprehend that Dortmund was under wraps both races and could have easily won with a much quicker time. Also, the two turns and further distance is in Dortmunds favor over Firing Line.

Finally, they say IF the ML of 4-5 on Dortmund is proven to be accurate, they will let Dortmund beat them. Really, to me it doesn't take a genius to know that Dortmund will be 1-5 on Saturday. If you can't accurately predict ahead of time the closing odds you really should find another line of work. It sounds to me like Timeform thinks Dortmund could go off at higher odds than 4-5. Not a chance.

Since Spectacular Bid, the only three year old I have thought to have superstar potential was Risen Star. I now have another. If Dortmund stays healthy, he could rival the great ones of the 70s. Racing needs a triple crown winner who comes into the Derby with superstar appeal. Hopefully we found him.

My selection is easy for the race. :3: :5: :4: straight trifecta big with a small cover with the five and four flip flopped. Just hoping to get a 12:00 trifecta out of this.

[cj]

Of course "that isn't the only way they try to pick winners" at TimeformUS. That is just silly. Multiple selections with explanations are posted every single day for various tracks, and often top figure horses aren't even mentioned, let alone selected. The track record has been very good.

This is a five horse field with a heavy favorite. There isn't a lot of room for creativity. So you think Dortmund is a superstar. Great. Don't bet against him.

Disclaimer---I rarely ever make selections for TimeformUS, and if I do, my name is on it. But I've learned if I don't like one of the selections by one of our handicappers, I at least take another look.

[zico20]

Of course "that isn't the only way they try to pick winners" at TimeformUS. That is just silly. Multiple selections with explanations are posted every single day for various tracks, and often top figure horses aren't even mentioned, let alone selected. The track record has been very good.

This is a five horse field with a heavy favorite. There isn't a lot of room for creativity. So you think Dortmund is a superstar. Great. Don't bet against him.

Disclaimer---I rarely ever make selections for TimeformUS, and if I do, my name is on it. But I've learned if I don't like one of the selections by one of our handicappers, I at least take another look.

I think they should have wrote the article a little different. It just sounds like they think Firing Line is a faster horse than Dortmund. It would have just sounded better had Timeform said Firing Line is sitting on another big move forward which will be what he needs to spring the upset. Plus, his 3-1 odds will be right compared to Dortmunds 1-5. Maybe I just interpreted the article wrong in that they think Firing Line is the better horse.

[Some_One]

The article is fine, according to their numbers, Firing Line is the better horse at this stage.

[Stillriledup]

Firing Line biggest wiseguy horse anyone has ever seen in the history of the game bar none. Don't ever think Dortmund is going to be 1-5 and FL is going to pay 7 or 8 bucks, not happening.

You're lucky if you get 4.60 on Firing line.

[zico20]

Could someone please post the Beyer speed figures for the last two races on each horse. I use Brisnet and want to see how close the Beyers are with Brisnet.

Here are the Brisnet numbers.

horse

1) 84, 82
2) 88, 86
3) 98, 89
4) 100, 91
5) 93, 92

Brisnet clearly has Dortmund and Mr. Z with higher figures than Firing Line for their last race. Just want to see what the Beyer numbers say.

Thank you very much

[Cratos]

Just finished reading the article on their picks for Saturdays Los Alamitos Futurity. They pick Firing Line to win. Their reasoning is he has the best time by a wide margin. Okay, so he does. I hope that isn't the only way they try to pick winners. That will send you to the poor house. Timeform fails to comprehend that Dortmund was under wraps both races and could have easily won with a much quicker time. Also, the two turns and further distance is in Dortmunds favor over Firing Line.

Finally, they say IF the ML of 4-5 on Dortmund is proven to be accurate, they will let Dortmund beat them. Really, to me it doesn't take a genius to know that Dortmund will be 1-5 on Saturday. If you can't accurately predict ahead of time the closing odds you really should find another line of work. It sounds to me like Timeform thinks Dortmund could go off at higher odds than 4-5. Not a chance.

Since Spectacular Bid, the only three year old I have thought to have superstar potential was Risen Star. I now have another. If Dortmund stays healthy, he could rival the great ones of the 70s. Racing needs a triple crown winner who comes into the Derby with superstar appeal. Hopefully we found him.

My selection is easy for the race. :3: :5: :4: straight trifecta big with a small cover with the five and four flip flopped. Just hoping to get a 12:00 trifecta out of this.
congratulations, you made a strong argument and posted your picks before the race.

[ReplayRandall]

Since Spectacular Bid, the only three year old I have thought to have superstar potential was Risen Star. I now have another. If Dortmund stays healthy, he could rival the great ones of the 70s. Racing needs a triple crown winner who comes into the Derby with superstar appeal. Hopefully we found him.

First off, Dortmund is still a 2year old. Secondly, if you're talking about Superstar potential, here are some you forgot since 1979: Unbridled's Song, Eskendereya, Uncle Mo and Grand Canyon, to name a few.....BTW, American Pharaoh, Mr. Z and Firing Line could possibly be that superstar. I like your enthusiasm Zico, but don't get too far ahead of yourself with the praises of Dortmund just yet.......

[cj]

Pretty good race today figure wise, top three on TimeformUS Speed Figures:

Dortmund 105
Firing Line 106
Mr. Z 106

The pace was solid:

1/4 120
1/2 119
3/4 110
1m 107
Fin 105

[Appy]

Turned out to be a spectacular horse race.

Nice thing about a 4 horse field, you get the winner in your top 4 100% of the time!
Los Al lucked out on this one. So did Dortmund?

[cj]

Turned out to be a spectacular horse race.

Nice thing about a 4 horse field, you get the winner in your top 4 100% of the time!
Los Al lucked out on this one. So did Dortmund?

It was a five horse field :)

[Robert Fischer]

I haven't read the timeform article, however in hindsight, Firing Line was the best value in that race.

Hindsight isn't worth much at all.
However, it's tough to criticize an article that did end up on the value selection, whether or not you agree with the pre-race look.

It was a tough race to handicap for value. You had 3 stakes horses.
Dortmund = Superstar in the making, trying new things, and very low price.
Mr. Z = Seasoned stakes 2yo, best in the Delta Jackpot in spite of running 2nd in that race, in the shadow of Dortmund's hype -but still not a good price, and had a good shot at stealing the race up front.
Firing Line = best price of the 3 stakes-level juveniles, I'm worried that Mr Z has more speed, and Dortmund is a bigger talent.

really tough race to find value before the race.

It's a race you have to pass in my opinion. Betting $100 bucks on a Dortmund @ $3.20 isn't a long-term winning strategy, and betting the mortgage on a Dortmund @ $3.20 is a gambling problem.


Now that the race has been run, I doubt we will even have a unanimous opinion on the postmortem.

Good races and varied opinion are good for the sport.

[Appy]

Oh.
Well whew, good thing I passed on that one! :D

[zico20]

congratulations, you made a strong argument and posted your picks before the race.

Thank you! First of all, let me say that I finally WON a photo. Yes, I can't believe it myself. For the year I had lost 46 races by a nose or a head. I was wondering if I was ever going to win a photo again in my lifetime. Those 46 races cost my approximately 33,000. And that is a conservative estimate. I have had the worst luck of my life this year with photos.

I did chicken out a little bit and only played a 120 straight trifecta. It was going to be a 200 straight. The reason I dropped it was because Smith chose Mr. Z over Firing Line. When a jock takes one over the other the one he chooses wins way more often than not. If anyone wants me to copy and paste my winnings let me know, I will be happy to do so!

This one photo doesn't make up for all the ones I got screwed in, but it is a start. And no, I don't expect to win every photo, but 46 in a row is a bit extreme. Just think what kind of a year I would have had if EVERY photo had gone my way. I am a happy camper tonight.

[martini]

After playing Gulfstream (and a little of Tampa), the whole card at Los Al looked like a grind waiting to happen. I passed on betting their card, but I did enjoy watching the Futurity. From a sporting perspective, it was a thrilling finish. What struck me about Dortmund was how he looked a little green still--as though he has not quite developed fluidity within his big frame. He was still fast, though.

If the connections do not burn him out on the Derby trail, I think he could possibly be a monster at age 4; however, I think it will likely be full speed ahead. I hope for the best.

[zico20]

First off, Dortmund is still a 2year old. Secondly, if you're talking about Superstar potential, here are some you forgot since 1979: Unbridled's Song, Eskendereya, Uncle Mo and Grand Canyon, to name a few.....BTW, American Pharaoh, Mr. Z and Firing Line could possibly be that superstar. I like your enthusiasm Zico, but don't get too far ahead of yourself with the praises of Dortmund just yet.......

Dortmund has a birthday coming real soon!! I never considered any of those you mentioned to have the potential to rival Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, or Affirmed.

Mr Z has already lost 7 races and Firing Line I don't think could romp in the Belmont like Risen Star did. As far as Dortmund is concerned, the final time was awesome. A second faster than the Breeders Cup Juvenile which was won by a horse by six lengths. Dortmund raced way wide on a part of the track Baffert said was not the place to be. IMO, Dortmund took another giant leap forward today. Any more progression and he will be hard to beat as the distances keep getting longer. The other two today will regress as the distances get longer. Just my opinion of course. Its not like I have never been wrong before. :D

[ReplayRandall]

Dortmund has a birthday coming real soon!! I never considered any of those you mentioned to have the potential to rival Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, or Affirmed.

Mr Z has already lost 7 races and Firing Line I don't think could romp in the Belmont like Risen Star did. As far as Dortmund is concerned, the final time was awesome. A second faster than the Breeders Cup Juvenile which was won by a horse by six lengths. Dortmund raced way wide on a part of the track Baffert said was not the place to be. IMO, Dortmund took another giant leap forward today. Any more progression and he will be hard to beat as the distances keep getting longer. The other two today will regress as the distances get longer. Just my opinion of course. Its not like I have never been wrong before. :D

If you ever get the chance, look up the tragic story of Grand Canyon and what he accomplished in his 2 yr.old season that's never been equaled. He was the fastest 2 yr.old ever. Happy Holidays to you, Zico.......

[zico20]

I haven't read the timeform article, however in hindsight, Firing Line was the best value in that race.

Hindsight isn't worth much at all.
However, it's tough to criticize an article that did end up on the value selection, whether or not you agree with the pre-race look.

It was a tough race to handicap for value. You had 3 stakes horses.
Dortmund = Superstar in the making, trying new things, and very low price.
Mr. Z = Seasoned stakes 2yo, best in the Delta Jackpot in spite of running 2nd in that race, in the shadow of Dortmund's hype -but still not a good price, and had a good shot at stealing the race up front.
Firing Line = best price of the 3 stakes-level juveniles, I'm worried that Mr Z has more speed, and Dortmund is a bigger talent.

really tough race to find value before the race.

It's a race you have to pass in my opinion. Betting $100 bucks on a Dortmund @ $3.20 isn't a long-term winning strategy, and betting the mortgage on a Dortmund @ $3.20 is a gambling problem.


Now that the race has been run, I doubt we will even have a unanimous opinion on the postmortem.

Good races and varied opinion are good for the sport.

Do you ever bet trifectas or supers? That is where the value is when you love a favorite. Sure, the favorite doesn't always win, but turning a 1-5 shot into 5-1 in a 5 horse field is good value. You just have to be very selective in which races to bet in short fields and trust your handicapping on the horses you toss out completely on the tri and super. And 12 dollar tris are very rare in short fields at the big tracks. This one was the exception. Most tris pay at least 20 bucks in five horse fields.

[zico20]

If you ever get the chance, look up the tragic story of Grand Canyon and what he accomplished in his 2 yr.old season that's never been equaled. He was the fastest 2 yr.old ever. Happy Holidays to you, Zico.......

Thanks for the kind words. The same to you. As far as Grand Canyon goes, yes his win was unbelievable, going the mile in 133 flat. However, if my memory serves me correct, and it was a long time ago, I didn't think he would get the Belmont distance. I thought he would have been best up to a mile and an eighth. His breeding I thought suggested more of a miler. Lukas had high hopes for some of his other highly touted 2 yr olds, like Capote, Houston, Saratoga Six, to name a few. Those didn't pan out.

I just never thought of Grand Canyon tossing a 2:26 Belmont drawing away by 20. But that is just me.

[Robert Fischer]

Do you ever bet trifectas or supers? That is where the value is when you love a favorite. Sure, the favorite doesn't always win, but turning a 1-5 shot into 5-1 in a 5 horse field is good value. You just have to be very selective in which races to bet in short fields and trust your handicapping on the horses you toss out completely on the tri and super. And 12 dollar tris are very rare in short fields at the big tracks. This one was the exception. Most tris pay at least 20 bucks in five horse fields.
You did a nice job with it today.:ThmbUp:

[Tom]

It was an easy race for value - there was none.
NO WAY the winner was worth a bet at those odds. The only one who could have been a play was Firing Line, but not that low.

[Tom]

Wrap up of the race.....

http://www.drf.com/news/dortmund-wins-three-horse-photo-los-
alamitos-futurity

[cj]

It was an easy race for value - there was none.
NO WAY the winner was worth a bet at those odds. The only one who could have been a play was Firing Line, but not that low.

Agree 100%, Firing Line was 5 and 6 to 1 most of the prerace , but I knew it wouldn't last.

[banacek]

Agree 100%, Firing Line was 5 and 6 to 1 most of the prerace , but I knew it wouldn't last.

Yeah, there was some late money there...but not quite the wise guy money predicted earlier in this thread :)

Firing Line biggest wiseguy horse anyone has ever seen in the history of the game bar none. Don't ever think Dortmund is going to be 1-5 and FL is going to pay 7 or 8 bucks, not happening.

You're lucky if you get 4.60 on Firing line.

[Speed Figure]

Pretty good race today figure wise, top three on TimeformUS Speed Figures:

Dortmund 105
Firing Line 106
Mr. Z 106

The pace was solid:

1/4 120
1/2 119
3/4 110
1m 107
Fin 105
I've never used timeform before! what's the late pace figure for this race? looking at the pp's how do you see it? if I'm looking at one line, how you do know what the horses late pace figure is for that line? I know when I make my numbers for this race there's a 4F number, 6F number, Late Pace number, Final Time number and a Overall Performance Number.

[JustRalph]

Those were real race horse fractions. I was suspicious of the clock. But those who should know say they are legit.

I hope none of these horses were over extended. We've seen it before. A big race that they never run back to. If they can move forward off this race, lights out. Maybe the best in quite a few years

[menifee]

Those were real race horse fractions. I was suspicious of the clock. But those who should know say they are legit.

I hope none of these horses were over extended. We've seen it before. A big race that they never run back to. If they can move forward off this race, lights out. Maybe the best in quite a few years


Man, I have a totally different view of this race. I'm really suspicious of that time and this track. Don't we know who Mr. Z is at this point in his career? He can't even beat G3 competition. When I see him lose by a nose in a G1, I tend to think this field was somewhat weak. I wouldn't be too high on this field going forward. If Dortmund was a superstar, he would have blown by those two in the stretch. He got the perfect setup.

[lamboguy]

It was an easy race for value - there was none.
NO WAY the winner was worth a bet at those odds. The only one who could have been a play was Firing Line, but not that low.the 2 horses that never had a chance didn't take 10% of the money, so in that respect the race had negative value. that happens constantly in the game these days. go play Parx, Charlestown, or Turf Paradise on a regular basis and you will see the same thing.

at the beginning of the meet, the racing secretary did a great job presenting big fields that had somewhat close ability, the last week went downhill inthat respect. over all though, it was a fun meet. the last meet on synthetic for Keeneland was a lot worse,

[zico20]

Man, I have a totally different view of this race. I'm really suspicious of that time and this track. Don't we know who Mr. Z is at this point in his career? He can't even beat G3 competition. When I see him lose by a nose in a G1, I tend to think this field was somewhat weak. I wouldn't be too high on this field going forward. If Dortmund was a superstar, he would have blown by those two in the stretch. He got the perfect setup.

How do you know that Ocho Ocho Ocho isn't going to be a multiple Grade 1 winner very soon. He has talent and has only had a couple of races. You may look back and say, "Damn, Mr Z only lost to Ocho Ocho Ocho by a nose." The addition of blinkers has really helped Mr Z. His problem is his distance limitations.

Dortmund didn't exactly get the perfect trip either. He was very wide the entire race and after watching the replay looked like he was fighting Garcia some. Big horses like him should continue to get better as they fill out their frame. I see no reason why he won't improve dramatically as a three year old.

[Tom]

That's why they let us bet.

[overthehill]

I wonder if anyone ever saw the photo? i thought the finish was super close and rarely do I see a comment of got the bob coupled with won by a head.

[overthehill]

barbaro was a very good horse. this was a such a tough race. we will see if any of these horses make it to the derby.

[Tom]

Used to be seeing a good performance was a good thing.
Nowadays, you never know.

[cj]

How do you know that Ocho Ocho Ocho isn't going to be a multiple Grade 1 winner very soon. He has talent and has only had a couple of races. You may look back and say, "Damn, Mr Z only lost to Ocho Ocho Ocho by a nose." The addition of blinkers has really helped Mr Z. His problem is his distance limitations.

Dortmund didn't exactly get the perfect trip either. He was very wide the entire race and after watching the replay looked like he was fighting Garcia some. Big horses like him should continue to get better as they fill out their frame. I see no reason why he won't improve dramatically as a three year old.

Dortmund had as good a trip as a horse can possibly get, you have to be kidding.

[cj]

I've never used timeform before! what's the late pace figure for this race? looking at the pp's how do you see it? if I'm looking at one line, how you do know what the horses late pace figure is for that line? I know when I make my numbers for this race there's a 4F number, 6F number, Late Pace number, Final Time number and a Overall Performance Number.

We don't publish a late pace number, just one overall late speed number for each horse. The last fraction can be calculated though using the horse's pace figures:

It would vary by distance, here are a few examples:

6f 110 100

100 * 3 - 110 * 2 = 80 (95)

6f 100 110

110 * 3 - 100 * 2 = 130 (115)

8f 110 100

100 * 4 - 110 * 3 = 70 (90)

8f 100 110

110 * 4 - 100 * 3 = 140 (120)

Personally, for a late pace "rating", I would average the last fraction with the horse pace figure. The results of those are in ().

I've never found late pace figures for individual running lines to be very useful, they are too pace dependent in my opinion. I also think running style needs to be factored in. Late pace ratings for speed horses are pretty useless, just as early speed ratings are for closers.

[classhandicapper]

Man, I have a totally different view of this race. I'm really suspicious of that time and this track. Don't we know who Mr. Z is at this point in his career? He can't even beat G3 competition. When I see him lose by a nose in a G1, I tend to think this field was somewhat weak. I wouldn't be too high on this field going forward. If Dortmund was a superstar, he would have blown by those two in the stretch. He got the perfect setup.

IMO graded stakes races for 2yos aren't as strong as they used to be. Years ago, 2yos ran more often. The graded stakes races (especially Grade 1 races) would be made up multiple winners. Some of the races would even contain horses that were multiple graded stakes winners. This race wasn't of that quality (or to the BC Juvenile), but the horses ran very well within it. The pace was fast and all 3 horses were extremely game for the entire last 1/4 mile.

[davew]

I wonder if anyone ever saw the photo? i thought the finish was super close and rarely do I see a comment of got the bob coupled with won by a head.

here is the win - not sure about place - very exciting race
http://www.losalamitos.com/Admin/TB/Images/PhotoFinish/12.20.14r8.jpg

[Robert Fischer]

Man, I have a totally different view of this race. I'm really suspicious of that time and this track. Don't we know who Mr. Z is at this point in his career? He can't even beat G3 competition. When I see him lose by a nose in a G1, I tend to think this field was somewhat weak. I wouldn't be too high on this field going forward. If Dortmund was a superstar, he would have blown by those two in the stretch. He got the perfect setup.
I had a completely different opinion of MR. Z's form than you did.
I had him as near-best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and best in the Delta Jackpot.
Mr Z. isn't talented enough to create his own good trips, or to overcome bad trips and win, but he has now strung together 3 races that are no disgrace to grade 1 performance standards.

The race setup for the Futurity is one that will be sure to be highly debated.
The pace was numerically fast. You also had the track announcer 'pronounce' that Dortmund was getting the 'ideal setup' some two furlongs into the running...

I personally didn't see the leaders waste all their energy early, or stop in the stretch. They appeared to have good energy in mid-stretch.
I think that is somewhat inherent in the way the track was playing. You had a biased track to be somewhat faster in terms of time, and you had a track-record. Horses were getting over the track.

On that track and with the quality of race that the front runners ran, giving up a few lengths entering the first turn and racing wide was probably every bit as costly as being able to stalk the leaders was advantageous.

The stretch run was more difficult for me to read. I looked at Firing Line, and he was moving like a bat out of hell. I looked at Dortmund (nearly on even terms) and he wasn't moving as quickly.
How could this be? Almost like watching Usain Bolt sprint against a regular sized sprinter, - slower stride frequency and greater stride length.
It wasn't until about the last furlong when Dortmund's anthropometric advantage finally wore down his rivals enough to get his nose on the wire.

All that said, I do think that Dortmund flattened out just a bit. 3rd race, and this long lanky thoroughbred got pushed to the limit in an attempt to run a true grade 1 time. He still has room to improve his endurance. He still has room to improve his stride frequency.

As far as going forward? I'm not crazy about Mr. Z. He could surprise, but he seems to have peaked, and he was getting out in the latter stages.
Firing Line looks good. Tactical speed was a new dimension. He had a stressful late run. His run in mid-stretch wins most races. He's similar in talent to a California Chrome, but obviously far less accomplished than such a name.
Dortmund looks good. He'll have to reassure that he isn't prone to flatten out in the stretch, and that he's able to continue to grow into his frame and get stronger. It's scary to consider his potential in an optimistic light.

Differences in opinion are good for the game. :ThmbUp:
That's why they let us bet.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/bzm76.jpghttp://oi61.tinypic.com/2pzz02w.jpg

[classhandicapper]

I had a completely different opinion of MR. Z's form than you did.
I had him as near-best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and best in the Delta Jackpot.


IMO, he was almost certainly best in the Jackpot and also clearly ran well in the Juvenile near that fast pace.

[zico20]

Dortmund had as good a trip as a horse can possibly get, you have to be kidding.

You and I obviously have a different opinion on where a horse should be positioned. You seem to favor a very wide trip and I prefer being down on the rail, especially when the far outside was NOT the place to be, according to Baffert. The second race on the card the :6: shot to the rail down the back stretch and came up the rail to win. I know that horse would not have won had he gone five wide around the turn and then be out in the middle of the stretch.

We just will have to agree to disagree. No big deal.

[zico20]

I wonder if anyone ever saw the photo? i thought the finish was super close and rarely do I see a comment of got the bob coupled with won by a head.

Simon on TVG needs to keep his mouth shut. He said the only thing we know is that Firing Line was third. How the hell could you make that prediction considering you never saw Mr. Zs nose on the wire. Way to go Simon!

[Speed Figure]

We don't publish a late pace number, just one overall late speed number for each horse. The last fraction can be calculated though using the horse's pace figures:

It would vary by distance, here are a few examples:

6f 110 100

100 * 3 - 110 * 2 = 80 (95)

6f 100 110

110 * 3 - 100 * 2 = 130 (115)

8f 110 100

100 * 4 - 110 * 3 = 70 (90)

8f 100 110

110 * 4 - 100 * 3 = 140 (120)

Personally, for a late pace "rating", I would average the last fraction with the horse pace figure. The results of those are in ().

I've never found late pace figures for individual running lines to be very useful, they are too pace dependent in my opinion. I also think running style needs to be factored in. Late pace ratings for speed horses are pretty useless, just as early speed ratings are for closers.

I guess we disagree. I really don't see the purpose of a 2 furlong pace rating in a 9 furlong race. Only 22% of the race has been ran. A late pace rating at 9 furlongs would cover the last 3 furlongs after 67% of the race has been ran.

[cj]

I guess we disagree. I really don't see the purpose of a 2 furlong pace rating in a 9 furlong race. Only 22% of the race has been ran. A late pace rating at 9 furlongs would cover the last 3 furlongs after 67% of the race has been ran.

Any late pace rating would be base on the second call pace figure and final time figure, certainly wouldn't use 2f for a 9f race.

[cj]

You and I obviously have a different opinion on where a horse should be positioned. You seem to favor a very wide trip and I prefer being down on the rail, especially when the far outside was NOT the place to be, according to Baffert. The second race on the card the :6: shot to the rail down the back stretch and came up the rail to win. I know that horse would not have won had he gone five wide around the turn and then be out in the middle of the stretch.

We just will have to agree to disagree. No big deal.

I can't imagine a better trip than sitting a clear third behind two dueling leaders.

[menifee]

Track record equals 91 beyer

[cj]

Track record equals 91 beyer

At the current shrinkage rate, byv2020 a 70 will be a winning G1 Beyer for older horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Track record equals 91 beyer

Looks like Team Beyer agrees with your assessment or Mr. Z, and wanted to emphasize how fast the track was.