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Old 12-19-2014, 06:09 PM   #1
zico20
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TimeformUS analysis of Futurity

Just finished reading the article on their picks for Saturdays Los Alamitos Futurity. They pick Firing Line to win. Their reasoning is he has the best time by a wide margin. Okay, so he does. I hope that isn't the only way they try to pick winners. That will send you to the poor house. Timeform fails to comprehend that Dortmund was under wraps both races and could have easily won with a much quicker time. Also, the two turns and further distance is in Dortmunds favor over Firing Line.

Finally, they say IF the ML of 4-5 on Dortmund is proven to be accurate, they will let Dortmund beat them. Really, to me it doesn't take a genius to know that Dortmund will be 1-5 on Saturday. If you can't accurately predict ahead of time the closing odds you really should find another line of work. It sounds to me like Timeform thinks Dortmund could go off at higher odds than 4-5. Not a chance.

Since Spectacular Bid, the only three year old I have thought to have superstar potential was Risen Star. I now have another. If Dortmund stays healthy, he could rival the great ones of the 70s. Racing needs a triple crown winner who comes into the Derby with superstar appeal. Hopefully we found him.

My selection is easy for the race. straight trifecta big with a small cover with the five and four flip flopped. Just hoping to get a 12:00 trifecta out of this.

Last edited by cj; 12-19-2014 at 06:12 PM. Reason: Fix title
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Old 12-19-2014, 06:15 PM   #2
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Of course "that isn't the only way they try to pick winners" at TimeformUS. That is just silly. Multiple selections with explanations are posted every single day for various tracks, and often top figure horses aren't even mentioned, let alone selected. The track record has been very good.

This is a five horse field with a heavy favorite. There isn't a lot of room for creativity. So you think Dortmund is a superstar. Great. Don't bet against him.

Disclaimer---I rarely ever make selections for TimeformUS, and if I do, my name is on it. But I've learned if I don't like one of the selections by one of our handicappers, I at least take another look.
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Old 12-19-2014, 06:48 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Of course "that isn't the only way they try to pick winners" at TimeformUS. That is just silly. Multiple selections with explanations are posted every single day for various tracks, and often top figure horses aren't even mentioned, let alone selected. The track record has been very good.

This is a five horse field with a heavy favorite. There isn't a lot of room for creativity. So you think Dortmund is a superstar. Great. Don't bet against him.

Disclaimer---I rarely ever make selections for TimeformUS, and if I do, my name is on it. But I've learned if I don't like one of the selections by one of our handicappers, I at least take another look.
I think they should have wrote the article a little different. It just sounds like they think Firing Line is a faster horse than Dortmund. It would have just sounded better had Timeform said Firing Line is sitting on another big move forward which will be what he needs to spring the upset. Plus, his 3-1 odds will be right compared to Dortmunds 1-5. Maybe I just interpreted the article wrong in that they think Firing Line is the better horse.
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Old 12-19-2014, 09:52 PM   #4
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The article is fine, according to their numbers, Firing Line is the better horse at this stage.
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Old 12-19-2014, 10:25 PM   #5
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Firing Line biggest wiseguy horse anyone has ever seen in the history of the game bar none. Don't ever think Dortmund is going to be 1-5 and FL is going to pay 7 or 8 bucks, not happening.

You're lucky if you get 4.60 on Firing line.
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Old 12-20-2014, 10:41 AM   #6
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Could someone please post the Beyer speed figures for the last two races on each horse. I use Brisnet and want to see how close the Beyers are with Brisnet.

Here are the Brisnet numbers.

horse

1) 84, 82
2) 88, 86
3) 98, 89
4) 100, 91
5) 93, 92

Brisnet clearly has Dortmund and Mr. Z with higher figures than Firing Line for their last race. Just want to see what the Beyer numbers say.

Thank you very much
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Old 12-20-2014, 07:55 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Just finished reading the article on their picks for Saturdays Los Alamitos Futurity. They pick Firing Line to win. Their reasoning is he has the best time by a wide margin. Okay, so he does. I hope that isn't the only way they try to pick winners. That will send you to the poor house. Timeform fails to comprehend that Dortmund was under wraps both races and could have easily won with a much quicker time. Also, the two turns and further distance is in Dortmunds favor over Firing Line.

Finally, they say IF the ML of 4-5 on Dortmund is proven to be accurate, they will let Dortmund beat them. Really, to me it doesn't take a genius to know that Dortmund will be 1-5 on Saturday. If you can't accurately predict ahead of time the closing odds you really should find another line of work. It sounds to me like Timeform thinks Dortmund could go off at higher odds than 4-5. Not a chance.

Since Spectacular Bid, the only three year old I have thought to have superstar potential was Risen Star. I now have another. If Dortmund stays healthy, he could rival the great ones of the 70s. Racing needs a triple crown winner who comes into the Derby with superstar appeal. Hopefully we found him.

My selection is easy for the race. straight trifecta big with a small cover with the five and four flip flopped. Just hoping to get a 12:00 trifecta out of this.
congratulations, you made a strong argument and posted your picks before the race.
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Old 12-20-2014, 08:23 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Since Spectacular Bid, the only three year old I have thought to have superstar potential was Risen Star. I now have another. If Dortmund stays healthy, he could rival the great ones of the 70s. Racing needs a triple crown winner who comes into the Derby with superstar appeal. Hopefully we found him.
First off, Dortmund is still a 2year old. Secondly, if you're talking about Superstar potential, here are some you forgot since 1979: Unbridled's Song, Eskendereya, Uncle Mo and Grand Canyon, to name a few.....BTW, American Pharaoh, Mr. Z and Firing Line could possibly be that superstar. I like your enthusiasm Zico, but don't get too far ahead of yourself with the praises of Dortmund just yet.......
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Old 12-20-2014, 08:42 PM   #9
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Pretty good race today figure wise, top three on TimeformUS Speed Figures:

Dortmund 105
Firing Line 106
Mr. Z 106

The pace was solid:

1/4 120
1/2 119
3/4 110
1m 107
Fin 105
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Old 12-20-2014, 08:45 PM   #10
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Turned out to be a spectacular horse race.

Nice thing about a 4 horse field, you get the winner in your top 4 100% of the time!
Los Al lucked out on this one. So did Dortmund?
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Old 12-20-2014, 08:47 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appy
Turned out to be a spectacular horse race.

Nice thing about a 4 horse field, you get the winner in your top 4 100% of the time!
Los Al lucked out on this one. So did Dortmund?
It was a five horse field
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Old 12-20-2014, 08:51 PM   #12
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I haven't read the timeform article, however in hindsight, Firing Line was the best value in that race.

Hindsight isn't worth much at all.
However, it's tough to criticize an article that did end up on the value selection, whether or not you agree with the pre-race look.

It was a tough race to handicap for value. You had 3 stakes horses.
Dortmund = Superstar in the making, trying new things, and very low price.
Mr. Z = Seasoned stakes 2yo, best in the Delta Jackpot in spite of running 2nd in that race, in the shadow of Dortmund's hype -but still not a good price, and had a good shot at stealing the race up front.
Firing Line = best price of the 3 stakes-level juveniles, I'm worried that Mr Z has more speed, and Dortmund is a bigger talent.

really tough race to find value before the race.

It's a race you have to pass in my opinion. Betting $100 bucks on a Dortmund @ $3.20 isn't a long-term winning strategy, and betting the mortgage on a Dortmund @ $3.20 is a gambling problem.


Now that the race has been run, I doubt we will even have a unanimous opinion on the postmortem.

Good races and varied opinion are good for the sport.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 12-20-2014 at 08:55 PM.
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Old 12-20-2014, 08:54 PM   #13
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Oh.
Well whew, good thing I passed on that one!
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Old 12-20-2014, 10:03 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
congratulations, you made a strong argument and posted your picks before the race.
Thank you! First of all, let me say that I finally WON a photo. Yes, I can't believe it myself. For the year I had lost 46 races by a nose or a head. I was wondering if I was ever going to win a photo again in my lifetime. Those 46 races cost my approximately 33,000. And that is a conservative estimate. I have had the worst luck of my life this year with photos.

I did chicken out a little bit and only played a 120 straight trifecta. It was going to be a 200 straight. The reason I dropped it was because Smith chose Mr. Z over Firing Line. When a jock takes one over the other the one he chooses wins way more often than not. If anyone wants me to copy and paste my winnings let me know, I will be happy to do so!

This one photo doesn't make up for all the ones I got screwed in, but it is a start. And no, I don't expect to win every photo, but 46 in a row is a bit extreme. Just think what kind of a year I would have had if EVERY photo had gone my way. I am a happy camper tonight.
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Old 12-20-2014, 10:13 PM   #15
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After playing Gulfstream (and a little of Tampa), the whole card at Los Al looked like a grind waiting to happen. I passed on betting their card, but I did enjoy watching the Futurity. From a sporting perspective, it was a thrilling finish. What struck me about Dortmund was how he looked a little green still--as though he has not quite developed fluidity within his big frame. He was still fast, though.

If the connections do not burn him out on the Derby trail, I think he could possibly be a monster at age 4; however, I think it will likely be full speed ahead. I hope for the best.
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