Mother Goose - Gr1

[PhantomOnTour]

Can Allen Jerkens be a Giant Killer again with House Rules ?
Well...no !

I will play a heavy Untapable - America exacta

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If anybody can steal the race it is the :3:

Unbettable. Will just enjoy Untapable.

[thespaah]

Possibly one these what I like to call them a "pari-mutuel workout"

[thespaah]

Holy sheet!!!!
That is one impressive filly.
Next stop Alabama?

[TMQ]

$10 Tri
:2: / :3: :6: / :3: :6:

[PhantomOnTour]

Can Allen Jerkens be a Giant Killer again with House Rules ?
Well...no !

I will play a heavy Untapable - America exacta
Almost...don't agree with the tactics of trying to be up close early. They were trying to beat the unbeatable filly when they should have settled for trying to beat everyone else.

Untapable is awesome...Travers, maybe?

[Grits]

As Tom called her, poetry in four legged motion.

Checked so hard with Princess Violet coming over at the break, she didn't flinch, it didn't phase her a bit. She proceeded to leave PV in her wake, along with the rest of the field.

...Pleased for her connections; a pleasure to watch her races.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Almost...don't agree with the tactics of trying to be up close early. They were trying to beat the unbeatable filly when they should have settled for trying to beat everyone else.

Untapable is awesome...Travers, maybe?

Would really love to see her take a shot at the boys or to take on Beholder, Sylmar, and Hatches. She has proven that she is more than ready.

[JustRalph]

I hope they are taking care of Rosie..........

Nice horse. I did notice that once she got the lead she went to looking around. didn't lose much speed though.

I like the fractions too........ real race horse kind of stuff...........

"A Passive Partner" was nice ...........

[thespaah]

Ya know what? That exacta paid $7.60...That's not bad for a 1-20 shot on top of the second choice in a field with just 5 betting interests.
That's almost 3-1

[OTM Al]

Went to see the race live today. Physically she looks no different than the others in the race but she wasn't even trying hard. Very similar to Rachel Alexandra's Mother Goose win.

[mutualwagerer]

That race was so impressive I would say that this filly is the best 3 year old in the land and I really hope at some point they let her go against the boys because she seriously measures up to them

[thespaah]

That race was so impressive I would say that this filly is the best 3 year old in the land and I really hope at some point they let her go against the boys because she seriously measures up to them
Not a big fan of that. Filly is a champ in her own division. Perhaps a race or two against 3 and up,
I think she goes to Saratoga for the Alabama. If she wins there. On to the Beldame vs older then the BC Distaff.
That's just a guess.
I never thought for the most part that champion fillies and mares had anything to prove by going to open company against males.
Turf horses excluded.
For some reason, females do very well vs males on grass.

[Fager Fan]

Not a big fan of that. Filly is a champ in her own division. Perhaps a race or two against 3 and up,
I think she goes to Saratoga for the Alabama. If she wins there. On to the Beldame vs older then the BC Distaff.
That's just a guess.
I never thought for the most part that champion fillies and mares had anything to prove by going to open company against males.
Turf horses excluded.
For some reason, females do very well vs males on grass.

Didn't you just make an argument for why a female has a lot to prove going against males on dirt?

[classhandicapper]

Beyer gave the race a 94?

I know that wasn't a strong Mother Goose, but it's hard for me to believe she won by 9 1/4 lengths and still went backwards 13 points.

There were a few very impressive dirt performances yesterday but all the figures look a little light compared to what I thought I saw live. I'll have to take a better look at the day.

[OTM Al]

Beyer gave the race a 94?

I know that wasn't a strong Mother Goose, but it's hard for me to believe she won by 9 1/4 lengths and still went backwards 13 points.

There were a few very impressive dirt performances yesterday but all the figures look a little light compared to what I thought I saw live. I'll have to take a better look at the day.
He can put whatever figure on it he wants. It was done with such control and ease that I can't take the race as a regression in form.

[Tom]

Where does that 94 put the others in the race?
Obviously, it was not a race for her - she did not have to use anything to beat that motley crew. That 94 probably only describes what she had to do to win. It is a speed figure, nothing more. Horses do not always run as fast as they can, and when they don't their figures don't mean anything. No one is going to look at that race as anything more than a workout for her. The fig means nothing.

[the little guy]

Unless you think Big Business, the 7th winner, is going to compete with Palace Malice in the Whitney, you can't make a valid argument that Untapable ran a particularly fast race yesterday. What is it about the 2nd and 3rd finishers that makes you think they should have run Beyer figs of over 80 in yesterday's 1 1/16 race.

Relative to her other races as a three year old, Untapable's effort in the Mother Goose was pretty underwhelming. However, given how well she has run previously, she gets a bit of a pass. But, it was her first effort in NY, for a barn that has put up very weak numbers in NY in 2014. It's hard to make a case for a 3YO filly against her going forward, but I will be very interested in seeing how she runs going forward. I hope it is better than yesterday.

[classhandicapper]

I have yet to have a discussion about figures that changed anyone's mind. However, I think you can easily interpret the Mother Goose as being more likely to be around a 100 than a 94.

1. A 100 would would be a 7 point drop for Untapable. IMO that's way more in line with a performance where Untapable won with something left or was less than 100% off close to a 2 month layoff. You don't see horses of this caliber drop 13 points very often unless they had a terrible trip, there was an extreme pace, the last trip was super easy, or something was amiss. It didn't look like anything was wrong with her yesterday.

2. Princess Violet is a lightly raced improving 3YO coming off a 92. I didn't expect her to duplicate her 92 stretching out and facing graded company pressure yesterday. But she did made the lead without extreme pressure. Certainly trying to repulse Utapable took something out of her. But I don't see why an 8 point drop to an 84 would be any less likely than a 14 point drop to a 78 while holding 2nd.

3. America was coming out of a very slow paced race where she probably didn't do her best at a 77. Her prior figure was an 82. You might be able to argue that being close to that pace yesterday wasn't ideal for her, but to me it looked like she dropped out out of it just as the race started heating up. Then she finished fine. I don't see why an 83 would be any less likely than a 77.

4. House Rules was coming off a sub par race in the Acorn. I left her out, but many people expected her to run better in the smaller field. Her last 4 figures were 76, 80, 89. and 79. She received a 71 yesterday. So instead of duplicating that sub par race or improving as expected, she actually regressed another 8 points according to the Beyer. I don't see any reason to think the pace impacted her. So I think a 77 seems a bit more likely than a 71.

If there is any problem with assuming a 100, it's in lining it up with the other races on the card.

I can't write a book here analyzing each of them, but here's another. Tracks also do change speed. So that could be an issue too.

I don't think it would be outrageous to suggest that Big Business ran a 107 yesterday instead of a 101. A 107 is way above PAR for NW3 (especially an older horse that never topped a 101), but he did win by 7 1/4 lengths over horses like Capo Bastone, Sailmate, and Stephanoatsee. They have run figures in the past that would be very logical if you added 6 points points to the Beyer figure they were given yesterday.

Capo Bastone was dropping out of the Grade 1 Met and has some good back figures. A little improvement over his previous 88 seemed likely. He was given an 87.

Sailmate has run figures in the low to mid 90s several times and had a 92 in his previous start. He was given an 86.

Stephanoatsee has some back class and figures in the mid 90s. He was switching to Nick Zito who's been fairly sharp at this meet.

Pretty good horses like Israal and Pinball got killed in the race chasing the winner. That suggests he ran huge.

Running a 107 in a NW3 doesn't mean you should be taking on Grade 1 horses next time out. In a Grade 1 race, he'd likely take way more heat at some point in the race and never duplicate it. He may not duplicate a race like that under any circumstances. But a 107 is not outrageous for a 7 length winner in NW3 ALW race. The PAR is probably around 98 give or take. So a 107 would fit very nicely unless you think the rest of that field was weak (yet they were all very sharp or dropping in class).

Your guess is as good as mine, but I don't think mine is outrageous.

[thespaah]

Unless you think Big Business, the 7th winner, is going to compete with Palace Malice in the Whitney, you can't make a valid argument that Untapable ran a particularly fast race yesterday. What is it about the 2nd and 3rd finishers that makes you think they should have run Beyer figs of over 80 in yesterday's 1 1/16 race.

Relative to her other races as a three year old, Untapable's effort in the Mother Goose was pretty underwhelming. However, given how well she has run previously, she gets a bit of a pass. But, it was her first effort in NY, for a barn that has put up very weak numbers in NY in 2014. It's hard to make a case for a 3YO filly against her going forward, but I will be very interested in seeing how she runs going forward. I hope it is better than yesterday.
This was the first time I'd seen her race.
I guess your view is that this was a pretty impressive performance against a not so impressive field.
Earlier in the thread I predicted her next dance would be the Alabama.
You?

[thespaah]

Didn't you just make an argument for why a female has a lot to prove going against males on dirt?
No...
There is nothing to prove.
Unless a filly/mare is a freak, IMO there is no use in going after males.
Now, if the filly/mare has beaten everything under the sun having faced the best female horses in the land, yep, take a shot.
But as far as a campaign vs open company.....Nope.

[classhandicapper]

They are considering the Haskell.

[Fager Fan]

No...
There is nothing to prove.
Unless a filly/mare is a freak, IMO there is no use in going after males.
Now, if the filly/mare has beaten everything under the sun having faced the best female horses in the land, yep, take a shot.
But as far as a campaign vs open company.....Nope.

I don't understand your definition of "nothing to prove." There is always more to prove, even if it's just adding another G1 win over the same competition. But a filly can certainly prove something (add to her accomplishments) by beating males.

[thespaah]

They are considering the Haskell.
Really?..Ok then.

[thespaah]

I don't understand your definition of "nothing to prove." There is always more to prove, even if it's just adding another G1 win over the same competition. But a filly can certainly prove something (add to her accomplishments) by beating males.
I will clarify..
I would say at this point since she has not gotten to the level of the best female horse in North America yet, she should be set against the best 3 yo's and if she beats the best of those, go up against the best older fillies and mares.
Then take a shot vs males.
At this point her connections have( perhaps nothing to prove is an incorrect label) maybe 'nothing to gain' ( right now) is the proper term.
What I am attempting to convey is why beat up your horse vs the best older males or even best 3yo's when there are opportunities to go after the best 3 yo fillies and 3 and up F&M?
That's just me. Play it conservative. Don't duck the best ones in the division, mind you. Stick with what works. Don't burn up the horse. If she gets to the point where the connections have a legit shot at some of the best 3yo males, go for it.
I digress.

[Fager Fan]

I will clarify..
I would say at this point since she has not gotten to the level of the best female horse in North America yet, she should be set against the best 3 yo's and if she beats the best of those, go up against the best older fillies and mares.
Then take a shot vs males.
At this point her connections have( perhaps nothing to prove is an incorrect label) maybe 'nothing to gain' ( right now) is the proper term.
What I am attempting to convey is why beat up your horse vs the best older males or even best 3yo's when there are opportunities to go after the best 3 yo fillies and 3 and up F&M?
That's just me. Play it conservative. Don't duck the best ones in the division, mind you. Stick with what works. Don't burn up the horse. If she gets to the point where the connections have a legit shot at some of the best 3yo males, go for it.
I digress.

Thanks for the explanation. I understand now and do think "nothing to gain" makes more sense to me. That said, I'm not sure that going up against the trio of Sylmar, Close Hatches and Beholder doesn't look like a tougher task than perhaps a few upcoming races for 3yo males (or open). But there's time before she'd have to go up against those girls.

[Thebigguy]

Almost...don't agree with the tactics of trying to be up close early. They were trying to beat the unbeatable filly when they should have settled for trying to beat everyone else.

Untapable is awesome...Travers, maybe?


She should stick to beating the girls in this soft class. If she ran in the Travers she would not be competitive.

[aaron]

If in fact, you take the 94 Beyer at face value and say she regressed,wouldn't that set her up for a major effort in her next race ? You could argue,she wins under wraps and is sitting on a big race.
Anyone know what the numbers look like on the sheets or Thorograph ?

[dirty moose]

Don't want to take anything away from this horse, cause she's a nice horse. What is so impressive about beating a 5 horse field? Truth be told, I don't follow particular horses or stakes races. But I did watch this race, and I just don't see what was so impressive about it...

[classhandicapper]

Anyone know what the numbers look like on the sheets or Thorograph ?

I don't know, but I'm going to guess that Thorograph has her running faster than the equivalent of a 94 based my familiarity with JB's thinking.

[thespaah]

I'm gonna ask a question which some of you guys may think is incredibly stupid.
Mind you, I am not in the least familiar with Beyer Speed Figures. Quite frankly i don't understand what the number as assigned to a performance actually represent.
So, what DO these numbers represent? Is there a 'starting point"...A maximum number, if you will?
ON which criteria is the figure based? Is it objective or subjective?

[classhandicapper]

I'd have to say that America's effort in the CCA is the first evidence that the Mother Goose was actually slow. It's only 1 horse out of the race, but she didn't run especially well yesterday.

I used her hoping the Beyer figure was too slow and she wasn't actually that far off StopshoppingMaria and Unbridled Forever. She had no shot the way Maria ran, but she didn't run the way I hoped or she would have been in a battle for the place.