What elimination rules do you use?

[Errol]

I’m about to start wagering real money.:confused: I need to do my two week workout, but it’s set up ready to go.

Where am I? ... Elimination rules ???? Before? Or after?

In the past I’ve always used - Before -.
For each race I’d go thru and eliminate certain horse’s then handicap the race with the leftovers. I did... Well I did... Yea not so much. My biggest problem was Wait for it... Wait for it... LOSING STREAKS!!!!!!!!:lol:

If you have a 32%win average and it makes a FLAT BET profit you will have (at least) 16 straight losers in a row.:bang: I have a progressive betting plan that is detailed to getting me thru such losing streaks. But I ain’t got the Guts, Fortitude, back bone, er intestines, hell I’m a gibbering idiot after 8, 9 or 10, let alone 16.:(

So if you will share your best Before elimination rules.:)

Then there are AFTER elimination rules:
I’ll be using a software package to make my wagers. I’m playing with the idea of taking the top 3 or 4 and eliminating 2 or three. Or all for that matter. I learned long ago not to force a play but to sit it out.

I know, I’m asking you to share the backbone of your handicapping.:eek: I’m 73 and this will probably be my last strike at the apple.:rolleyes:

Any help, will be, by me, very much appreciated.:ThmbUp:

Vaya Con Dios
Errol

[taxicab]

Well Errol...
An automatic toss for me is a big drop off of a long layoff(as long as it's in a claimer).

[BlueChip@DRF]

Well Errol...
An automatic toss for me is a big drop off of a long layoff(as long as it's in a claimer).

I use that with a horse going from straight maiden into 1st time for claim and with equipment/medication changes.

[Overlay]

My handicapping improved markedly when I stopped using elimination rules altogether (because they tended to leave me with chalk horses that were obvious to too many other people), and started evaluating the winning chances of each horse in a field in comparison to its odds by quantifying both the positive and negative features of each horse's record to determine the horse's overall winning probability.

[Clocker]

My handicapping improved markedly when I stopped using elimination rules altogether

Ditto. I believe it was the esteemed Doc Sartin who said that the only absolute rule is that there are no absolute rules.

[HUSKER55]

If I had any elimination rules that worked I would be on a warm tropical island being catered to by nude women.

I am in Wisconsin. It is still cold up here.

What do you think?

[limit2]

Fear not the 16 straight losers in a row. Instead consider the average losing streak. That could be 5-6 races. With 2 selections/race and a longshot $2 average mutual of $32 I observe the average of 5-6 losing races.

[Sinner369]

Errol.....if you do a search you will find a bunch of rules (better to call them guidelines).

And like someone says..........you usually end up with the favourite.

[Capper Al]

Ditto. I believe it was the esteemed Doc Sartin who said that the only absolute rule is that there are no absolute rules.

There is one absolute rule in handicapping and only one. See Dave's Basics of Winning.

[thaskalos]

There is one absolute rule in handicapping and only one. See Dave's Basics of Winning.

I've seen this argument before somewhere...

[Tom]

Dave who?

Schwartz?

[Capper Al]

Dave who?

Schwartz?

Yes.

[Capper Al]

I've seen this argument before somewhere...

Couldn't resist. I'm about to start testing my version of BRIS rr and cr figures in the forum. So I thought I'd chime in early.

[Appy]

"I learned long ago not to force a play but to sit it out."

Errol, if you have mastered that most important little detail there is no way you should ever endure 16 consecutive losses, assuming you have accumulated some handicapping skill and have an idea of your strengths.

Test, test, test. If your top 2 picks are not winning a high percentage at acceptable odds (5/2 and up) don't spend your money.

[Actor]

If I had any elimination rules that worked I would be on a warm tropical island being catered to by nude women.

I am in Wisconsin. It is still cold up here.

What do you think?When they start to turn blue let them put some clothes on.

[zerosky]

being catered to by nude women.
It's been a while since I've been 'catered to' I must get out more.

As far as elimination goes, at the risk of sounding too semantic no horse can be completely eliminated sometimes the longest shot on the board can bring home the bacon. A reasonable division of the horses is into Probables, Possibles and Outsiders. I am sure I am not alone when occasionally exclaiming 'how the hell that that horse win' only to look back on the PP's and then exclaim 'How the hell did I miss that'

Peter Braddock a UK handicapper is a an advocate of the elimination method to quote
" Elimination is the strictly factual method of selection. It is the most comprehensive and discriminating method which, if carefully practised will produce consistently successful results. It requires always a calm studied approach that may become involved and time consuming because of the need for constant thoroughness"

[Actor]

In maiden claiming races I eliminate all horses with no wins in their last 10 starts. :ThmbUp:

[dlivery]

Eliminate any M/L Horse 30/1
Horse has not run in the past 90 days

[limit2]

I also eliminate 30/1, 7/2 and lower ML odds.........I get more restrictive by requiring 100% overlays with races 7 & 12 entries......No races with scratches.

[Tom]

Any race with a super-trainer it it.
I find once you cut those races out, you can do much better without changing much else.

[imofe]

I also eliminate 30/1, 7/2 and lower ML odds.........I get more restrictive by requiring 100% overlays with races 7 & 12 entries......No races with scratches.

How high does the ML favorite have to be for you to consider betting in a 10 horse field?

[upthecreek]

Any horse Todd Schrupp likes! LOL
Heres some from Netcapper;
http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010126.htm

[Fingal]

Any horse Todd Schrupp likes! LOL
Heres some from Netcapper;
http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010126.htm

Any horse picked by most radio touts. If that's also the one I came up with it's usually a good time to go to the food court.

[limit2]

I do not pay attention to favorites. Although I have been hurt by <5:2 ML favorites in 7-8 entry races.

[cordep17]

Well Errol...
An automatic toss for me is a big drop off of a long layoff(as long as it's in a claimer).

It's better to be betting the hot horse you can count on to deliver than the horse that may have fallen off a cliff while the trainer tries to figure out how far down till the bottom.

Do the huge droppers sometimes win? yeah. You can't be right all the time.