decision models

[osophy_junkie]

I am working my way through Tom Brohamer's book Modern Pace Handicapping, and am stuck on the chapter about decision models.

In the book his model has 17 ones for 12 entries. I don't get nearly that many 1's when I make models. Mine look more like this:

[8, 7, 7]
[2, 2, 3]
[7, 6, 4]
[4, 5, 3]
[1, 5, 2]
[5, 5, 2]
[7, 8, 1]
[6, 5, 9]

Also once I get an average, I am having a hard time matching up an entry. None of them seem to fit. How do more experienced players do this?

-ed

[Dave Schwartz]

1. He only ranks his contenders.
2. He only puts in races where one of his contenders won.

[Tom]

I try to make it 5 contenders all the time, and I put in losing races, so I don't get cocky.

In the example above, I would be playing the top 3 of whatever the last column is and not looking at the first two. But it is not a strong model.