Updating Taulbot

[grahors]

I have the Taulbot software and use it a lot with pretty good success. I think it could use an updating to modern figures(ones that are adjusted for variant and distance and track)
The figures used now are from Bris files but are raw figs not adjusted. I do however believe the Bris spd fig is used.
When calculating the Taulbot fig, 3 moves are made.....
1st fig is pace of race. (E2+lengths in back of leader)
2nd fig is final times of race (horses spd try+lengths back of horse)
3rd fig is horses spd fig. No adjustments
Taulbot fig is the sum of all 3. Each is multiplied by certain numb to get totals in the 700, 800, 900 point bracket.
My prob is this.... I need to know how much the software or old slide rule weighted each figure in th total. What percent each represents.
Hope someone can help. Randy Kovach(?) where are you
Fine tuning could really help an already great tool
Grahors

[classhandicapper]

I can't help you (though I have his book at home and can look), but Talbout was WAY ahead of his time even if his figure charts were off.

[grahors]

You are right..interesting person
I have read some non-mainstream articles on how he could predict class and condition of a horse...using his figs. Don't know how well yet. Personally haven't tried the method

[rgustafson]

Since no one has mentioned it and I'm from your neck of the woods, I"ll bite. Half a dozen posts in the last three years prior to the last week and twice that number since. What gives?:)

[Ted Craven]

Hope someone can help. Randy Kovach(?) where are you
Fine tuning could really help an already great tool
Grahors

http://paceandcap.com/forums/member.php?u=1415

Ted

[grahors]

Since no one has mentioned it and I'm from your neck of the woods, I"ll bite. Half a dozen posts in the last three years prior to the last week and twice that number since. What gives?:)
Just getting back into the swing of things after a 6yr battle with cancer. Then 3 wks ago fell and broke my hip. Recouping, lots of reading and a real need to get "caught" up and attack handicapping again
Grahors

[grahors]

My neck of the woods??? Where abouts?

[rgustafson]

My neck of the woods??? Where abouts?

I live in Ham Lake. Have been going to Canterbury since the day the track opened. Sorry to hear about your health problems and hope the worst is behind you:)

[Vinnie]

Just getting back into the swing of things after a 6yr battle with cancer. Then 3 wks ago fell and broke my hip. Recouping, lots of reading and a real need to get "caught" up and attack handicapping again
Grahors

Grahors:

Nothing but good Karma and well wishes to you and your family. Only the warmest wishes for continued health.

Vinnie :)

[grahors]

Thanks for your nice thoughts, Vinnie.
Have been cancer free for 6 yrs (that is good) then a goofy thing like falling in the kitchen breaks a hip. Moving in the right direction and in my eyes, handicapping is great "therapy"
Thanks
Cecil. (Grahors)

[shoelessjoe]

Cecil,

Sorry to hear about your fall, just hope everything goes well for you.

[grahors]

Jeff, Derby is coming. Life is good.
All I need now is to sharpen up this software
Thanks
Cecil. (Grahors)

[grahors]

Ted gave me a link to pace and cap for Randy Kovach.
Kinda of obscure and no response. Is Randy a member here and do you think he would help with weights (percentages) I need for the main factors?

Thanks, Cecil (grahors)

[Ted Craven]

Cecil,

Randy has been out of the handicapping programming business for a while now, but he does check in from time to time at P&C, which is why I gave you his UID and email address. I doubt he would do any programming re the Pace Calculator, but you could always ask ... Very pleasant person to talk with and in correspondence.

Atlasaxis (here & at P&C) appears to use the Taulbot PC to good effect - if you correspond with him, perhaps he could share any optimizations he's aware of.

Good luck, and better health (and welcome back!)

Ted

[TheProgrammer]

Thanks Ted.

Ted is correct, I do check in from time to time, and I no longer have any connection to horse racing or writing horse racing software. That said, even if I did and wanted to update Pace Computer, I couldn't, as ATM owns it and the rights to the software. Sorry.

Randy

[TRM]

Hey Cecil-

I don't know if you remember me, but we met at the 07' championship in Vegas. Glad to hear that you beat cancer. Send me a PM as I may be able to help on your programming issue.

Wes

[atlasaxis]

I have the Taulbot software and use it a lot with pretty good success.

Here's a quote from Doc Sartin on the Taulbot approach:

"....These are the kinds of horses that will make you a profit when PROPERLY using the Pace Calculator. Other vital instructions conceived by the brilliant mind of Ray Taulbot, though written years ago, are still as current as tomorrow’s racing card.

Personally, I think North American Handicappers are adjustment happy, defeating themselves by making too many subjectively oriented alterations to running lines; or buying services that produce pars, pace pars and other figures distorting lines horses truly run. It’s been said many times that most HORSE-PLAYERS don’t want to profit, they just want to win races. MOST seem to prefer non-computerized procedures. If just winning races, with no valid computerized aid, is your goal, RAY TAULBOT’S PACE CALCULATOR is far better than whatever is second best. "

The key to success with using this tool, like any other, is to find out what conditions it is most successful with. Concentrate on them and you will be ahead in this game.

[Vinnie]

Atlasaxis:

Greetings! I shot you a PM. Please check your PM's at your convenience.

Thank you sir.

All the BEST!

Vinnie :)

[Jingle]

I am downsizing much of my handicapping material and I do have Taulbots' latest version, 3.0, of his Pace Computer for sale if anyone is interested. I am the original owner and have the instruction Manual, Bill of Sale, etc. If anyone is interested please shoot me an email or PM.

I will tell you this software has payed for itself many times over.

I have Mike's permission to post this note before I go to ebay.

[Big Bill]

Jingle,

Will version 3.0 run on Windows 7?

Big Bill

[Jingle]

Bill--I'm not sure but I don't think so. The Disc, says Windows 95, NT, 2000, and XP. I have been running it on XP and it runs fine.

[dartman51]

I have the older 1.2 version running on Win 7, so the 3.0 version should. I'm curious, Jingle, if you know what the difference is between the 2 versions. :ThmbUp:

[atlasaxis]

Dart, there is only 1 modern version (outside of the dos version). For some reason the case the disc comes in says 3.0 but on the disc itself says 1.2. Go figure! :)

Tom

[atlasaxis]

Bill--I'm not sure but I don't think so. The Disc, says Windows 95, NT, 2000, and XP. I have been running it on XP and it runs fine.

Jingle,

How much you want for it??? Gotta keep as many copies as possible off the market! ;)

Tom

[Jingle]

Atlasaxix,

I think my version says 1.3.

I gave someone a price earlier today and I'm waiting to hear from him.

Send me a PM or an email.

Thanks.

[Jingle]

Dartman--I don't know the difference but my ver. says 1.3.

[Big Bill]

My question, "will version 3.0 run on Windows?, was answered below:



PACE COMPUTER 3.0 SOFTWARE

Our newly-upgraded and improved Pace Computer 3.0 software gives handicappers Pace Calculator ratings at the touch of a keystroke. The Pace Computer 3.0 software is Microsoft Windows compatible, including Windows XP and fully downloadable, so no manual data entry is required. All data can be saved to a database; generates clear, easy-to-read reports. The program also applies Taulbot's powerful Angle Percentage Values to the field to help separate contenders. Handicaps an entire card in just minutes.

Please be aware that an account with BRIS (Bloodstock Research Information Services) is needed to use the software. An entire card of races for a single track is approximately $1. (note:not available for 64bit computers).

My Windows 7 is a 64 bit computer.

Big Bill

[dartman51]

My computer is running Win 7 Ultimate 64 Bit with a Quad Core possessor, and the 1.2 version works fine. :ThmbUp:

[Jingle]

Big Bill & Dartman

Thanks for the replys--you guys cleared up any confusion.

Good handicapping.

[Ghostrider5]

In version 3.0 of pace computer software it says you can save the information to a database. How would you go about doing this?

Ghostrider5

[Capper Al]

Does the software use raw speed figues for their calculations like the old slide rule did? Does it produce pace figures if BRIS' speed figures and not available?

[grahors]

Uses raw figures(non-adjusted) to get the raw pace ability rating. However, bris speed nnumberbis used,
Could some one with the slide rule run a figure on some horses and see what %!each part is use or weighted toward the final figure
Ie. pace of race+final pace of race+speed of horse = raw figure

[Longshot]

Graphors here's a breakdown on the formula that the old sliderule uses.

For Sprints 5F to 7.5F

795 + (( Dist Furlongs-5) X 2) +
(((65 + (( Dist Furlongs -5) x 12) - Race Final Time) + (49- 4F Time)) X 5) +
(Speedfig - 65)

Routes 8F to 10F

788 + (( Dist Furlongs -8) X 2) +
(((106 + (( Dist Furlongs - 8) X 14) -Race Final Time) +
(73.4 - 6F Time)) X 5) +
(Speed Fig -65)

For my personal use I use 95 and 88 as the first numbers instead of 795 and 788. This put the final number in the 100's. I have it programmed into an EquiSim FV and use it in cheaper claiming races.

[grahors]

WOW...thanks longshot.
question....do you adjust final and 4f times for track run on and for track variant.
Thanks again, Cecil

would this work for percent of each factor....
1. find total raw fig for a horse
2. find highlighted pace #3. find final pace (time) #
4. use bris spd fig (adjust 2 and 3 to pace of race not horse)

divide #2 by #1 gives percentage, weight per se
divide #3 by #1 ditto
divide #4 by #1 ditto

now to use bris adjusted figs.....
E2 fig times percent from A.
final bris pace times percent from B
bris spd fig times percent from C

add all 3 to get total Taulbot fig
Im looking for % easier on my old brain. or maybe more confusing

[Longshot]

Back when I first started use the sliderule in the 80's I tried using the DRF
race variant. A DRF variant of 17 or 18 was normal and I subtracted a 1/2
point for each variant number lower and added a 1/2 point for each variant number higher. This did make some difference. I currently don't have a variant programmed into my formula but It's something I could look at.

I don't make track to track adjustments. I play only a few tracks and have
developed a feel for which pace lines to use. Probably 1 turn mile horses going in a 2 turn mile today is my biggest problem as far as trying to make any adjustment.

As far as using Bris E2 and Speed numbers to get a Taulbot like number.

For Sprints try E2 * 0.6 + Speed Fig * 0.4
For Routes try E2 * 0.675 + Speed Fig * 0.325

[grahors]

Bingo! That's what I'm lookin for
Is the spd you refer to the speed of race?
After you add E2+final spd off race you should add horse spd , but at what proportion (times what number. 0.2?)
You and I must be about same age. I started playing in 1980
I'm 62 and play Canterbury live and everything else when it's not open
From outside of mpls.
Thanks again
Cecil

[Big Bill]

Longshot,

Have you tried using American Turf Monthly's Track Equalization Chart to make track-to-track adjustments?

http://www.americanturf.com/equalization/index.cfm?showchart=1

How to use the adjustments is described here:

http://www.americanturf.com/equalization/

Big Bill

[grahors]

Bill, I have. an with good results. One of the most memorable, Taulbot had Funnycide 2-3 in the rankings. Did track to track from ATM and it moved Funny into. A distinct #1. The chart really helps( atleast me)

[Big Bill]

Longshot,

In your posted algorithm (below) for routes can you tell me what values you enter in your program when the race distances are 1 mile and 40 yards, and 1 mile and 70 yards assuming that 1 mile = 8.0 and 1 and 1/16 miles = 8.5?

Big Bill

Routes 8F to 10F

788 + (( Dist Furlongs -8) X 2) +
(((106 + (( Dist Furlongs - 8) X 14) -Race Final Time) +
(73.4 - 6F Time)) X 5) +
(Speed Fig -65)

[atlasaxis]

Bill, I have. an with good results. One of the most memorable, Taulbot had Funnycide 2-3 in the rankings. Did track to track from ATM and it moved Funny into. A distinct #1. The chart really helps( atleast me)

Grahors, what track, date and race were you looking at for Funny Cide. If I have the file I want to see what the software did on that race. Thanks.

Tom

[Longshot]

Bill

1 mile 40 yds is 8.18
1 mile 70 yds is 8.318


I have it written to an EquiSim FV that runs in both v5 and v6.
If you can use it let me know and I'll pass it on.

[Big Bill]

Longshot,

Thanks for the quick reply.

Bill

[grahors]

It was the Kentucky Derby. I donr have then file anymore. I really cant remember which paceline I used and adjusted the track to CD.
sorry

[BIG49010]

How well does this work for Turf races?

Thanks

[Big Bill]

longshot,

In your earlier post you stated that you use 95 and 88 as the first numbers in the two algorithims instead of 795 and 788 in order to put your final numbers (ratings) in the 100's.

I thought I would try that and changed the 795 to 95 to get a smaller sprint rating. But instead of getting one in the 100's it returned a negative number. Is there something else that needs to be changed in the formula?

Could you use the following numbers and advise me what rating you get?:

Dist. - 6f, race final time = 111.1, 4f time = 44.2, and Speed Fig = 80

Using those numbers I get a 665.5 rating. Using 95 in lieu of 795 in the formula I get a -34.5 rating. What am I missing or what am I doing wrong?

Big Bill

[Longshot]

Bill given the following: 6F race, 111.1 Final Time, 42.4 Half , 80 Speed Fig

795 + (( 6-5) * 2) = 797

((( 65 + (( 6-5) * 12) = 77 - 71.1 = 5.9

( 49-44.2)) * 5) = 24

(80 - 65) = 15

795 + 5.9 + 24 + 15 = 841.9 rounded to 842

For my use I get 700 less or 142

I wasn't sure if on your Final Time you listed 71.1. If you meant 71 1/5 it
would have been 71.2. Also if the half time you listed 42.4 was 44 4/5 it would have been 44.8. The pace rating would be 838.8 or 839 using these 1/5 times.

[iwearpurple]

longshot,

In your earlier post you stated that you use 95 and 88 as the first numbers in the two algorithims instead of 795 and 788 in order to put your final numbers (ratings) in the 100's.

I thought I would try that and changed the 795 to 95 to get a smaller sprint rating. But instead of getting one in the 100's it returned a negative number. Is there something else that needs to be changed in the formula?

Could you use the following numbers and advise me what rating you get?:

Dist. - 6f, race final time = 111.1, 4f time = 44.2, and Speed Fig = 80

Using those numbers I get a 665.5 rating. Using 95 in lieu of 795 in the formula I get a -34.5 rating. What am I missing or what am I doing wrong?

Big Bill

Bill

You need to use 71.2 for 1:11.1.

1:11.1 = 71.2 seconds

[Big Bill]

Longshot and iwearpurple,

Thanks to you both for responding to my request so quickly. I will make changes to my program (in GBasic) and see if that gives me the ratings you provided.

Thanks so very, very much.

Big Bill

[traynor]

Bill

You need to use 71.2 for 1:11.1.

1:11.1 = 71.2 seconds


Convert fifths to tenths:
TimeFirstCall(x) = INT(TimeFirstCall(x)) + ((TimeFirstCall(x) - INT(TimeFirstCall(x))) * 2)
TimeSecondCall(x) = INT(TimeSecondCall(x)) + ((TimeSecondCall(x) - INT(TimeSecondCall(x))) * 2)
TimeThirdCall(x) = INT(TimeThirdCall(x)) + ((TimeThirdCall(x) - INT(TimeThirdCall(x))) * 2)
TimeAtFinish(x) = INT(TimeAtFinish(x)) + ((TimeAtFinish(x) - INT(TimeAtFinish(x))) * 2)

Convert minutes to seconds:
IF TimeSecondCall(x) > 100 THEN
TimeSecondCall(x) = TimeSecondCall(x) - 40
END IF
IF TimeThirdCall(x) > 100 THEN
TimeThirdCall(x) = TimeThirdCall(x) - 40
END IF
IF TimeAtFinish(x) > 200 THEN
TimeAtFinish(x) = TimeAtFinish(x) - 40
END IF
IF TimeAtFinish(x) > 100 THEN
TimeAtFinish(x) = TimeAtFinish(x) - 40
END IF

Works for both thoroughbred and harness. Enter (example) minute and seconds as 111.1