Alligning Beyer's With Official Handicap

[WORKFORCE]

Hi PA,

As a European Racing Handicapper I was interested in trying to allign the Beyer speed charts with the Official Handicap in the United Kingdom and wanted to know where to start from?

As a basis to work from I have the average time over each distance for each class as standards currently so there wouldn't be too much data grabbing.

Thank you

[WORKFORCE]

I think Nick Mordin mentions how to adjust Beyer's for the British Handicap system in the appendices of Winning Without Thinking, could anyone retrieve the formula?

[Bullet Plane]

Win Without Thinking by Mordin refers to Timeform ratings, not the OR.

An OR rating of 100 = Listed Class

The Beyer equivalent is also 100 for Good allowance / low-grade stakes races ..which is the American equivalent of Listed Class... ( they would need to be adusted for 2 year olds, three year olds, fillies etc.

The link to an explanation of the Beyer Speed Figures at DRF:

http://www1.drf.com/products/beyers/beyers.html

[WORKFORCE]

Thank you for that.

I should use the Lst. benchmark of 100 to work from.

That means finding my Lst. standard over each distance at said racecourse before increasing and decreasing from that in increments of .2.

The Beyer will go up from the benchmark of 100 at 3.3 points over 5f, 2.8 points over 6f and 2.3 points over 7f etc, Essentially for each .2 increase or decrease off the benchmark will also involve a 1lb movement of the BHB.

My Lst. Standard over 5f at a racecourse in England is 60.7 and the following should be valid, BHB-BEY-SEC.

104 - 113 - 59.9
103 - 110 - 60.1
102 - 107 - 60.3
101 - 103 - 60.5
100 - 100 - 60.7
99 - 97 - 60.9
98 - 93 - 61.1
97 - 90- 61.3

[Father Guy]

I think if you intend using Beyer figures you are heading down the wrong track immediately. Hope that helps.

[cj]

I think if you intend using Beyer figures you are heading down the wrong track immediately. Hope that helps.

Nope, doesn't help at all. Why bother with a post like that?

[Father Guy]

Well, here's a good example mentioned on another thread.....

Here is a classic one, races 11-12 at Tampa from Saturday (March 9th). Both races were at 1 1/16 on firm turf, no temp rail, nothing.

Race 11: 25.72 51.41 1:15.56 1:44.20 Beyer 90
Race 12: 22.93 46.68 1:10.40 1:41.92 Beyer 79

Good luck aligning Beyer figures with official UK handicap ratings when you have nonsense like that.

[cj]

Well, here's a good example mentioned on another thread.....

Here is a classic one, races 11-12 at Tampa from Saturday (March 9th). Both races were at 1 1/16 on firm turf, no temp rail, nothing.

Race 11: 25.72 51.41 1:15.56 1:44.20 Beyer 90
Race 12: 22.93 46.68 1:10.40 1:41.92 Beyer 79

Good luck aligning Beyer figures with official UK handicap ratings when you have nonsense like that.

Are you saying the UK ratings line up perfectly with time for races run on the same day and the same track and distance?

[Father Guy]

Of course not but final time is usually only a secondary factor when assessing racehorse ratings in the UK.

Aren’t Beyer figures speed figures based on final time? Or only loosely and when they suit? Speed figures based on final time should reflect exactly that when other factors such as the abilities of the horses, weight carried, weight for age etc have been properly accounted for. Race 12 was well over 2 seconds faster than race 11.

[cj]

Of course not but final time is usually only a secondary factor when assessing racehorse ratings in the UK.

Aren’t Beyer figures speed figures based on final time? Or only loosely and when they suit? Speed figures based on final time should reflect exactly that when other factors such as the abilities of the horses, weight carried, weight for age etc have been properly accounted for. Race 12 was well over 2 seconds faster than race 11.

Based on final time, yes, but that isn't set in stone. This discussion has taken place here about 1000 times by now. I'm not defending the practice or knocking it. It is a dead horse by now. There are times I agree, and times I don't.

One thing I'll say is that can't always trust the reported times. They are often misreported, much more than people realize. I find at least one or two in North America every single day that are really bad.

Here are a few my partner has found recently:



Race 9, PRX, 4-15-2013, time entered into Equibase 1 full second slower than actual time.
Race 2, PEN, 4-11-2013, tele-timer tripped by loose horse at every call. Here is an image showing the official winner BEFORE the finish line and the final time already showing on the screen. This is the "official" time.
http://a1.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/133/2bd8dfc7ce9246e1bbe1d94c417f75a4/l.png

The loose horse was WAY in front of the field. This kind of stuff happens ALL THE TIME. So be careful taking times at face value if you haven't investigated a little. Sad, but true.

[cj]

Check out the 1st race on 4-17 at EvD. The starter actually trips the timer too soon by walking across the beam, and the faulty times find there way into the PPs.

[johnhannibalsmith]

These last two examples you cite are pathetic. Having worked at a 'D' level track, I'm honored to say that during my time the guys at EQB were stone professionals that never would have allowed that to happen, especially not blatant examples of bad times that were easily attributed to circumstance and needed to be re-timed. A friggin' loose horse and a starter crossing the start cell are just horrendous examples of bad times that are recorded as accurate. The crew that let those stand ought to be ashamed. And probably replaced.

[Tom]

Hats off the data whores at Equibase, for the truly pathetic job they do day in day out. What a bunch of total incompetents. Not not mention the idiots who run Evd. Who is in charge down there, Troy the gator hunter?

[burnsy]

Aligning Beyers with good handicapping is a better angle. If horses are switching tracks you can confidently toss the Beyer in many cases. Great way to weed out overbet horses. Another is when a horse wins by open lengths against inferior horses. This is the best one to catch live, longer priced horses. People will get on the internet and TV and rave about the "lifetime" Beyer when some horse crushes a lousy field and runs away. Like Game on Dude beating tomato cans all season until the real competition comes to town or Royal Delta trying to go to Dubai and the Equibase is trying to extrapulate numbers she ran against Tiz Miz Sue at 10 furlongs.......Tiz Miz Sue is nice but shes no Animal Kingdom or some of the gorillas they enter over there. The fact is if a horse is outclassed or does not get the race set up the way its used to getting, the Beyer is a great bet against. Especially horses that require early position, equal or better horses will negate any advantage to the so called "highest Beyer" horse has right from the gate. The two big time horses i just used as examples are beaten that way. When the gate opens and push comes to shove the Beyer speed figure while useful can be a total sham when a horse has met its physical match. If the horse is a good price and you lose, no harm no foul. But many times these horses are overbet and when you can analyze class and distance in concert with figs, then you have something that might be worth cashing on. Translating the Beyer to another number may be a waste of time unless you understand actual handicapping. I love when a weekend race goes off and everyone is asking......"What was the Beyer?". I'm sure thats how he bets EVERYTIME and he sold DRF the formula.....yeah ok....i thought so. I hope they keep printing them.....

[thaskalos]

Aligning Beyers with good handicapping is a better angle. If horses are switching tracks you can confidently toss the Beyer in many cases. Great way to weed out overbet horses. Another is when a horse wins by open lengths against inferior horses. This is the best one to catch live, longer priced horses. People will get on the internet and TV and rave about the "lifetime" Beyer when some horse crushes a lousy field and runs away. Like Game on Dude beating tomato cans all season until the real competition comes to town or Royal Delta trying to go to Dubai and the Equibase is trying to extrapulate numbers she ran against Tiz Miz Sue at 10 furlongs.......Tiz Miz Sue is nice but shes no Animal Kingdom or some of the gorillas they enter over there. The fact is if a horse is outclassed or does not get the race set up the way its used to getting, the Beyer is a great bet against. Especially horses that require early position, equal or better horses will negate any advantage to the so called "highest Beyer" horse has right from the gate. The two big time horses i just used as examples are beaten that way. When the gate opens and push comes to shove the Beyer speed figure while useful can be a total sham when a horse has met its physical match. If the horse is a good price and you lose, no harm no foul. But many times these horses are overbet and when you can analyze class and distance in concert with figs, then you have something that might be worth cashing on. Translating the Beyer to another number may be a waste of time unless you understand actual handicapping. I love when a weekend race goes off and everyone is asking......"What was the Beyer?". I'm sure thats how he bets EVERYTIME and he sold DRF the formula.....yeah ok....i thought so. I hope they keep printing them.....

IMO, these high-Beyer horses are no longer overbet to the extent that some people think they are. The Beyer figures might be the weapon of choice for many...but the more sophisticated players are well aware of the limitations of these figures -- and this is clearly reflected on the tote board.

I see high-figured horses who are often ignored in the betting...at big tracks and small.

[cj]

Why does every thread that mentions Beyer figures have to turn into a public referendum on whether they are any good or not?

[Tom]

Beyer is not a sophisticated player?

[PaceAdvantage]

Why does every thread that mentions Beyer figures have to turn into a public referendum on whether they are any good or not?Jealousy would be my knee-jerk answer...

If you think they aren't any good, why would you want to alert everyone to that fact? If you value your opinion, you'd want as many people as possible to use inferior information whilst you yourself utilize information that allows you to beat all these Beyer players...

So it makes no sense for those who truly believe Beyer numbers aren't any good to go shouting this opinion in a public forum...thus, it must be jealousy that is driving these types of responses.

[thaskalos]

Beyer is not a sophisticated player?
Beyer is not just a speed handicapper...and he himself has talked at length about the limitations of his figures.

If you don't believe me...read his book "The Winning Horseplayer".

[thaskalos]

Jealousy would be my knee-jerk answer...

If you think they aren't any good, why would you want to alert everyone to that fact? If you value your opinion, you'd want as many people as possible to use inferior information whilst you yourself utilize information that allows you to beat all these Beyer players...

So it makes no sense for those who truly believe Beyer numbers aren't any good to go shouting this opinion in a public forum...thus, it must be jealousy that is driving these types of responses.
I couldn't care less if it makes sense or not; I like to come to this public forum and share my opinions freely...without fear that I may be hurting myself in the process.

If I wanted "as many people as possible to use inferior information"...then I wouldn't have submitted a single post on this site.

As far as this "jealousy" business is concerned...I'd like to meet the man who is a bigger fan of Beyer than I am. And I've said so many times in the past.

Nowhere have I said that the Beyer numbers are "inferior". I just said that they are not the overbet factor that some people think they are.

Every day, at every track in the country, I see Beyer figure standouts that are bet in a lukewarm manner. The "sophisticated player" doesn't automatically jump on the high-figure horse...and Beyer himself has stated as much.

[RXB]

I think Nick Mordin mentions how to adjust Beyer's for the British Handicap system in the appendices of Winning Without Thinking, could anyone retrieve the formula?

Starts on page 311. But the conversion involves Timeform figures, not the BHA ratings.

http://books.google.ca/books?id=79q_peU8Kq4C&pg=PA311&lpg=PA311&dq=nick+mordin+beyer&source=bl&ots=UYHajSDhCs&sig=ufFILc_VQYn6WFuD78G4PDdzog8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=VUt0UePmJ6btiwKsjIHYBQ&ved=0CHMQ6AEwCQ#v=onepage&q=nick%20mordin%20beyer&f=false

[PaceAdvantage]

I couldn't care less if it makes sense or not; I like to come to this public forum and share my opinions freely...without fear that I may be hurting myself in the process.

If I wanted "as many people as possible to use inferior information"...then I wouldn't have submitted a single post on this site.

As far as this "jealousy" business is concerned...I'd like to meet the man who is a bigger fan of Beyer than I am. And I've said so many times in the past.

Nowhere have I said that the Beyer numbers are "inferior". I just said that they are not the overbet factor that some people think they are.

Every day, at every track in the country, I see Beyer figure standouts that are bet in a lukewarm manner. The "sophisticated player" doesn't automatically jump on the high-figure horse...and Beyer himself has stated as much.I don't think anyone had you in mind when making these most recent statements (I certainly did not).

How else to explain certain folks "coming out of the woodwork" whenever Beyer is mentioned...only to put him and his work down?

It's all based on jealousy in my opinion...and it's just that, an opinion. I don't have much to back it up with...

And like I said, I wasn't thinking of you when I wrote that, so I'm not sure why you felt the need to defend yourself.

[cj]

Back to the timing issue, our sport couldn't even time a 1.5 million dollar race properly last night. It is effing pathetic.

[cj]

I don't think anyone had you in mind when making these most recent statements (I certainly did not).


I certainly didn't either. It was the post before thask's, and another before that.

[Tom]

Baffert said that GOD probably got confused running so slow - he gallops faster than that in the mornings.

Premier race at that track - and they just feeble-mindedly post whatever comes out of a broken stop watch. CT had the world watching and only proved that they are still nothing but a minor-league hell-hole track. A joke with a lot of money to spend.

Would you buy a hot dog at CT?

[cj]

Would you buy a hot dog at CT?

Yes, they have good food in the casino!

[classhandicapper]

IMO, these high-Beyer horses are no longer overbet to the extent that some people think they are. The Beyer figures might be the weapon of choice for many...but the more sophisticated players are well aware of the limitations of these figures -- and this is clearly reflected on the tote board.

I see high-figured horses who are often ignored in the betting...at big tracks and small.

I think the Sheets and TG have a much bigger impact on the board than Beyer figures.

[cj]

I think the Sheets and TG have a much bigger impact on the board than Beyer figures.

If you mean in New York, yes, but probably not most other places.

[classhandicapper]

If you mean in New York, yes, but probably not most other places.

Right, on the major circuits that can support heavy betting volume.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Back to the timing issue, our sport couldn't even time a 1.5 million dollar race properly last night. It is effing pathetic.

They must be listening.

Following a review by track officials, the Charles Town Board of Stewards and Equibase, the official fractions and final time for this past Saturday night’s $1,500,000 Charles Town Classic, won by Game on Dude over Clubhouse Ride and Ron the Greek, have been amended.

After the fractions and final clocking for the Charles Town Classic appeared in question, the matter was reviewed by the parties on Tuesday morning. With the most likely reason for the original timing being the inadvertent tripping of one of the timing beams by an outrider’s pony, the decision was made to re-time the entire race by hand before arriving at what was believed to be the most accurate clocking.



http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/after-review-officials-change-time-of-charles-town-classic/

[cj]

Right, on the major circuits that can support heavy betting volume.

I wouldn't say that is true in California. Yes, they are available, but I don't think they get near the same action as they do in NY.

[classhandicapper]

I wouldn't say that is true in California. Yes, they are available, but I don't think they get near the same action as they do in NY.

Could be. I don't handicap or play CA nearly as often. I just find that when a horse is taking a lot of action that I don't understand, it usually has a good figure on one of those 2 sheet services.

[WORKFORCE]

Starts on page 311. But the conversion involves Timeform figures, not the BHA ratings.

http://books.google.ca/books?id=79q_peU8Kq4C&pg=PA311&lpg=PA311&dq=nick+mordin+beyer&source=bl&ots=UYHajSDhCs&sig=ufFILc_VQYn6WFuD78G4PDdzog8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=VUt0UePmJ6btiwKsjIHYBQ&ved=0CHMQ6AEwCQ#v=onepage&q=nick%20mordin%20beyer&f=false

Thank you very much.

[gm10]

I don't think the two can be compared with each other, due to a number of factors (weight-for-age, beaten lengths to pounds conversion, Beyer's hybrid system for turf races, etc). I know you can up with a workable approximation, but somehow that doesn't feel right to me - when you KNOW it has problems, it's difficult to put your faith in it.

Imo if you want to compare the two, you need to construct an "official" handicap for American horses. (I'm working on something similar that but it's not progressing very quickly ;) )

[Tom]

When your Twin Spires account tells you the conversion is working, I have all the faith I need. ;)

[WORKFORCE]

How about we prove it can be done! I've got all the British data required to work from it's just about constructing a universal function into multiple racecourses.