How do you define success?

[traynor]

What do you--as a bettor--consider "success" to be? Losing less than usual? Breaking even wagering? Covering the peripheral costs associated with wagering and breaking even wagering? Making a modest profit? If making a profit is the goal, how would you define success in a dollar amount?

Some years ago, Andrew Beyer marked his entry into professional-level wagering at $50,000 profit in a year. James Quinn used a similar baseline in defining a "professional income" as equivalent to earned by other professionals in other fields--academia, business, and so on. At the time, the general figure tossed around was similar to that specified by Beyer--about $50,000 a year profit. How do you define being successful as a bettor?

Given the amount of time and effort required for reasonably serious wagering, it seems that one should expect at least as much return from wagering as an equivalent amount of time performing whatever other work one does would return, plus covering all associated costs. Specifically, multiply the number of hours per month you spend on racing-related activities, multiplied by the hourly rate of your "regular job," plus whatever peripheral costs are involved in racing. That would include data downloads, DRFs, programs, transportation costs to and from the track if you attend races in person, and so on.

[dkithore]

What do you--as a bettor--consider "success" to be? Losing less than usual? Breaking even wagering? Covering the peripheral costs associated with wagering and breaking even wagering? Making a modest profit? If making a profit is the goal, how would you define success in a dollar amount?

Some years ago, Andrew Beyer marked his entry into professional-level wagering at $50,000 profit in a year. James Quinn used a similar baseline in defining a "professional income" as equivalent to earned by other professionals in other fields--academia, business, and so on. At the time, the general figure tossed around was similar to that specified by Beyer--about $50,000 a year profit. How do you define being successful as a bettor?

Given the amount of time and effort required for reasonably serious wagering, it seems that one should expect at least as much return from wagering as an equivalent amount of time performing whatever other work one does would return, plus covering all associated costs. Specifically, multiply the number of hours per month you spend on racing-related activities, multiplied by the hourly rate of your "regular job," plus whatever peripheral costs are involved in racing. That would include data downloads, DRFs, programs, transportation costs to and from the track if you attend races in person, and so on.

Horse racing endeavor is a mirror of who I am and want to be. As a committed horse player (not a pro) my goal is to breakeven. Days when I do that, I am satisfied not ecstatic. As a paper and pencil handicapper, I know I can not compete with sharp payers with high tech support. So, I do not delude myself with Andy Beyer dream income. When I solve the puzzle of a race and results are favorable, I feel I was successful. Handicapping is a way of life and the process of doing it right itself defines me not the outcome

[thaskalos]

At the start of every year, I put aside one year's living expenses -- apart from my gambling bankroll -- from which I draw to support my family for the upcoming year. The thought that the year's expenses are paid for in advance is a great comfort to me, during the turbulent times that my betting style puts me through. If, by year's end, my bankroll contains the excess funds to fully replenish my expense account...then I am satisfied. If I do better than that...then I am happy.

I know that this doesn't sound like "success"...but then again...I don't feel particularly "successful".

I feel like a mercenary in a never-ending war...who has survived some battles,
and has cashed some paychecks.

But the war rages on...

[Tom]

Success is meeting your goal, whatever that is.
Might be to net 50K a year, might be to pay for your racing forms.

[traynor]

At the start of every year, I put aside one year's living expenses -- apart from my gambling bankroll -- from which I draw to support my family for the upcoming year. The thought that the year's expenses are paid for in advance is a great comfort to me, during the turbulent times that my betting style puts me through. If, by year's end, my bankroll contains the excess funds to fully replenish my expense account...then I am satisfied. If I do better than that...then I am happy.

I know that this doesn't sound like "success"...but then again...I don't feel particularly "successful".

I feel like a mercenary in a never-ending war...who has survived some battles,
and has cashed some paychecks.

But the war rages on...

That is a good philosophy. It is even better that you have a source other than wagering from which to set aside the living expenses for the year. Especially given the cyclic nature of "feast or famine" in wagering.

[traynor]

Horse racing endeavor is a mirror of who I am and want to be. As a committed horse player (not a pro) my goal is to breakeven. Days when I do that, I am satisfied not ecstatic. As a paper and pencil handicapper, I know I can not compete with sharp payers with high tech support. So, I do not delude myself with Andy Beyer dream income. When I solve the puzzle of a race and results are favorable, I feel I was successful. Handicapping is a way of life and the process of doing it right itself defines me not the outcome

That is great. For you, the rewards go beyond simple profit or loss.

[therussmeister]

"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

Charles Dickens, David Copperfield

I simply wish to make more than I spend. I have an advantage there because I have neither wife nor kids, and essentially no taste for luxury goods.

[dkithore]

"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."

Charles Dickens, David Copperfield


I really like that quote.

[raybo]

The money I wager on racing is an investment. If I can make more income than what I could leaving the money in another investment vehicle, then I have been successful. My basic expectation is to create supplemental income/savings to my retirement income. I have, hopefully, a few years left on this earth, and have fought the battles of the working man all my life, I just want to do something I am really interested in, and come out well ahead at the end of the year. No, 2 or 3% net profit on my total investment is not worth all the time I invest and I would consider anything around that level a poor return.

But, that's just me, and I know I can do better than most, but that isn't what defines me, or my goals. Satisfaction and pride are better measurements in my mind.

[HUSKER55]

if I make more than what the bank pays then I am happy. I know I know,...doesn't take much. :D

[Capper Al]

At the end of the year, if my bankroll is larger than what I started with, I call this success. If it happens to be only a few bucks then I was entertained for free. Having fun without losing money is a profit. No matter how small the profit. I do set goals nowadays of doubling my bankroll.

[pondman]

It's for the money. But it's not only about making money, it's what you do with it that makes your life fulfilling. It took me at least 20 years, closer to 30, to put the data behind my gimmicky beliefs and develop my own style. It also took years, and technology, to develop the ability to scan through the DRF mid-week and develop a betting plan for the week. Battling against sheep doesn't take much, a few obscure tidbits, and the ability to stay away from the window until the fruit is right. It doesn't matter as to the type of race you bet. I'll go back on a maiden winner (my #2 play), but that's because I have the numbers at 20 tracks. If you've got the numbers, and an edge on the sheep, then play it. If you don't stay away.

[turninforhome10]

Throwing out some quotes that spell success for me
What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.
Bob Dylan
Flaming enthusiasm, backed up by horse sense and persistence, is the quality that most frequently makes for success.
Dale Carnegie
If one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he will meet with success unexpected in common hours.
Henry David Thoreau
The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.
Vince Lombardi
Success is peace of mind, which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you made the effort to become the best of which you are capable.
John Wooden

[turninforhome10]

Throwing out some quotes that spell success for me
What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.
Bob Dylan
Flaming enthusiasm, backed up by horse sense and persistence, is the quality that most frequently makes for success.
Dale Carnegie
If one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he will meet with success unexpected in common hours.
Henry David Thoreau
The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.
Vince Lombardi
Success is peace of mind, which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you made the effort to become the best of which you are capable.
John Wooden
Success is a steak dinner after eating bologna sandwiches for week.
Turninforhome10 :jump:

[raybo]

Throwing out some quotes that spell success for me
What's money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.
Bob Dylan
Flaming enthusiasm, backed up by horse sense and persistence, is the quality that most frequently makes for success.
Dale Carnegie
If one advances confidently in the direction of his dreams, and endeavors to live the life which he has imagined, he will meet with success unexpected in common hours.
Henry David Thoreau
The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.
Vince Lombardi
Success is peace of mind, which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you made the effort to become the best of which you are capable.
John Wooden

This one says it for me. :ThmbUp:

[turninforhome10]

S4aUMBGujY0 This one says it for me. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Goren]

A successful day is any day you win more than you bet plus expenses. A really successful is a day when they aren't running the way you think they should and somehow you still ended up with a profit. The ability to adjust on the run in real life as well as in horse racing wagering marks the successful person.

[LLHorses]

How do trainers, jockeys, and owners define success? :lol:



That's an easy one. When they have stolen a huge chunk of your money from the pools. :lol:



I honestly feel sorry for a lot of you guys on this board. Because you take this game so seriously and the insiders are just laughing all the way to the bank at you.

You're wasting your lives. Repeat after me. You can't handicap drugs. You can't handicap drugs.

[raybo]

How do trainers, jockeys, and owners define success? :lol:



That's an easy one. When they have stolen a huge chunk of your money from the pools. :lol:



I honestly feel sorry for a lot of you guys on this board. Because you take this game so seriously and the insiders are just laughing all the way to the bank at you.

You're wasting your lives. Repeat after me. You can't handicap drugs. You can't handicap drugs.

Ok, another one for the ignore list. :rolleyes:

[LLHorses]

Ok, another one for the ignore list. :rolleyes:



You don't have to worry about that because I'm going to be banned soon. :lol:


But if you know what's good for you, you won't ignore what I posted. It's a hard thing to give up I know when you've been doing it your whole life. Trust me I know. But you're just a sucker if you gamble on horse racing.

[Robert Fischer]

I define success by socioeconomic status. There are other ways to defined success, but SES is my personal perspective of success, and it's the same way I would define success with any occupation.

I look at things in the short term. Play the game the right way. Eat, Rest, don't abuse the body. Get good sleep. If I do that every day, I have a high probability of success. I also am healthy, disciplined, and have a sharp mind.

[thaskalos]

You don't have to worry about that because I'm going to be banned soon. :lol:



I wonder what's taking so long...:)

[raybo]

You don't have to worry about that because I'm going to be banned soon. :lol:


But if you know what's good for you, you won't ignore what I posted. It's a hard thing to give up I know when you've been doing it your whole life. Trust me I know. But you're just a sucker if you gamble on horse racing.

So, is that your definition of success, getting banned from PA? Or, do you have the ultimate goal of saving all of us "suckers"? A sucker is one that allows himself to be duped, resulting in negative results. One doesn't have to allow himself to be duped, but then some don't have that ability.

[LLHorses]

So, is that your definition of success, getting banned from PA? Or, do you have the ultimate goal of saving all of us "suckers"? A sucker is one that allows himself to be duped, resulting in negative results. One doesn't have to allow himself to be duped, but then some don't have that ability.




Read this carefully from beginning to end.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/us/at-the-track-racing-economics-collide-with-veterinarians-oath.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&

[thaskalos]

Read this carefully from beginning to end.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/us/at-the-track-racing-economics-collide-with-veterinarians-oath.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&

This is easily the most disturbing article I have ever read concerning this game...and the people who run it.

Perhaps..."If you got a good vet with ethics, you are not going to do very well"...should be the game's new advertising pitch.

[turninforhome10]

Could not the same thing be said about any endeavor involving man and large sums of money. I read the article and while it is disturbing, it is no more so than what goes on in the stock market or what happened in the housing market. At least we as gamblers have a choice. What about all those seniors that lost everything in their retirement funds when the housing bubble took everything down?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/credit-default-swaps-evolving-financial-meltdown-and-derivative-disaster-du-jour/8634?print=1
So those that worked hard and put their money aside in their 401k's got screwed by a system that was supposed to help them in their golden years.
Corruption is worse than prostitution. The latter might endanger the morals of an individual, the former invariably endangers the morals of the entire country.
Karl Kraus

Do you LLhorse have money in the stock market?

[Jeff P]

S4aUMBGujY0

Turninforhome10,

Thank you for posting that. (I really enjoyed it.)

-jp

.

[thaskalos]

Could not the same thing be said about any endeavor involving man and large sums of money. I read the article and while it is disturbing, it is no more so than what goes on in the stock market or what happened in the housing market. At least we as gamblers have a choice. What about all those seniors that lost everything in their retirement funds when the housing bubble took everything down?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/credit-default-swaps-evolving-financial-meltdown-and-derivative-disaster-du-jour/8634?print=1
So those that worked hard and put their money aside in their 401k's got screwed by a system that was supposed to help them in their golden years.
Corruption is worse than prostitution. The latter might endanger the morals of an individual, the former invariably endangers the morals of the entire country.
Karl Kraus

Do you LLhorse have money in the stock market?

Yes, my friend...I understand the point that you are making.

But I hate it when I see some of the most beautiful animals in existence, being used by some unscrupulous men as if they were just like a deck of cards.

[turninforhome10]

Yes, my friend...I understand the point that you are making.

But I hate it when I see some of the most beautiful animals in existence, being used by some unscrupulous men as if they were just a deck of cards.
So the point of the thread was about success. Many of my peers would have thought of my career in medicine as successful and many would think that the pay was very good. I will share this story of why I did not consider it a success.
I was working at a private non-denominational hospital in Lebanon Pa. One morning while going to stat labs on a 68 yo woman (I am also a top notch phlebotomist), I walked into her her room and she was scared to death that she was going to die. While in the room her priest (father since she was Catholic) was there to give her communion and she was desperate to receive the body of Christ. Just as the priest went to put the wafer on her tongue a nurse jumped in and literally slapped the wafer from the priest's hand and exclaimed " this patient is NPO( nothing by mouth). Meanwhile I am watching this whole thing transpire and thinking "this is shameful". What comes first the spiritual nature of our existence or the physical nature of our existence. When the nurse left the room, I close the door and stood lookout so this scared little lady could receive communion.
Another example was when my friends grandfather who was 93 yo and survived landing in Italy and Normandy in WWII who had never been sick a day in his life, goes in to the very same hospital for routine upper GI contracts C DIFF (a intestinal infection) from a dirty scope spends the last days of his life strapped to a bed in 4 point restraints denied any food and dies in the middle of the night with no family there.
As far as the horse business goes. early in 2010, I left that hospital and took over as a farm manager for the now defunct Star Barn Thoroughbreds. It was great when I first started. Horses were being taken care of and I was in charge of the care and welfare of 26 broodmares that had been donated to what was being a called a charity home for donated horses. Within months the purely bullsh** plan was starting to fall apart. The owners duped everyone with this idea and now the farm swelled to 130 horses all donated. When the feed started to run out, I quit with the idea that the money that they were paying me could go to the horses. I was not well off and there was many days I ate Ramen noodles and peanut butter sandwiches untill I found a job back in the hospitals. Here is a picture and link to one of the stallions I took care of for these bastards. A son of Spend a Buck who was a grade-1 winner in Brazil Warning it is graphic
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/155001_10200313563703062_397540981_n.jpg
Here is a link to the full story
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/pets/PA-man-convicted-on-14-counts-in-horse-cruelty-case.html
How could I consider this life a success when I felt spiritually ashamed of what the hospital system is responsible for everyday in effecting the lives of humans? Same goes for the time at Star Barn. Corruption and greed permeate our lives everyday. How we either succumb to or rise above this is where we achieve success. I invented this saying when I was a 19 yo looking to find a way in life.
"I wish that I was either smart enough to save my brothers and sisters in this human conditions from the loneliness and corruption or stupid enough to not realize that this was an issue". " But what do you do when you are just smart enough to realize that there is no escape"
It does not matter whether it is horseracing or medicine. A successful life IMHO is built on spirituality. While I agree what goes on in both is deplorable, my only hope is to believe in Karma. I hope trainers that do these things to horses, just as well as those that do these things to humans both rot in hell.
My success is measured in knowing that I as a MLT and horseman have done my best to make things better for both people and horses.

I will ask all of the handicappers here in this forum, when was the last time you donated to a thoroughbred charity?
Just my 2 cents from a person who has seen the deplorable side of man and when asked why I play the races, I will respond. Because this is where my soul is at peace.

[traynor]

There are two very interesting areas of research in human psychology, that demonstrate admirably how fast, and how easily, the "good guys" become the "bad guys." The first is Zimbardo's Stanford Prison Guard experiments. The second is generally called the Milgram Experiments, or Obedience to Authority. Both have been endlessly verified in many different cultures around the world with identical results.

The point is a simple one. Much like Calley at My Lai, the participants believed sincerely they were "doing the right thing."

It is all too easy to look out and think how awful those "others" are, and what awful things they do. It is much more difficult to look out and realize they are not "others." They are just like you.

[thaskalos]

There are two very interesting areas of research in human psychology, that demonstrate admirably how fast, and how easily, the "good guys" become the "bad guys." The first is Zimbardo's Stanford Prison Guard experiments. The second is generally called the Milgram Experiments, or Obedience to Authority. Both have been endlessly verified in many different cultures around the world with identical results.

The point is a simple one. Much like Calley at My Lai, the participants believed sincerely they were "doing the right thing."

It is all too easy to look out and think how awful those "others" are, and what awful things they do. It is much more difficult to look out and realize they are not "others." They are just like you.
Men come in all types. Some kill with no regret...while others lay their lives down for the sake of strangers. We are not all the same.

To harm another for our own financial benefit is one thing; to think that we are "right" in doing so is something else entirely.

[traynor]

Men come in all types. Some kill with no regret...while others lay their lives down for the sake of strangers. We are not all the same.

To harm another for our own financial benefit is one thing; to think that we are "right" in doing so is something else entirely.

It is that feeling of "doing the right thing" that underlies both the Stanford Prison Guard and the Milgram experiments.

[LLHorses]

This is easily the most disturbing article I have ever read concerning this game...and the people who run it.

Perhaps..."If you got a good vet with ethics, you are not going to do very well"...should be the game's new advertising pitch.






Make sure you read the comments underneath too. There's some trainers commenting, other people who have worked in horse racing, a guy who wrote a book on the cheating in the sport.


Now if those comments were posted on this website, they would probably be deleted because it's obvious to me the guys running this website are no different than the the insiders in this sport, they are trying to keep the very very very DARK side of this sport hidden as long as possible. This website is a business after all.

They've been censoring me heavily but every thing I said is true. And every link I posted is true.

[LLHorses]

Here's one of the comments.


AConcerts
WV



Fabulous article. Shame that is where it will end. Owners, trainers, vets and racing officials get so righteous about the horses yet they let it continue. I have been training horses for 40 years. We never had the super trainers we have today. Amazing how they come up with these new drugs as soon as a test is developed. Owners get the bills so they know what is going on, yet they pretend that they don't. I have been at a small track for many years. A couple of years ago a winning trainer in NY was going to send me a few horses. The first question he asked had nothing to do with horse training concepts. The first question was "what can you get away with out there?." This guy is one of the top trainers in the country.I answered good feed and hay, bute when needed and lasix if a bleeder and he laughed and hung up.
Stats are all that matter. You are a 30% trainer or you barely make it. In order to be a 30% or higher trainer you need to be a skilled user of illegal drugs. Period.

I am at the end of my career so it doesn't bother me as much as it used to. A young fellow who is very good with horses was just starting in the business, his very wealthy grandfather said to me.." he really is good. He knows when to give a horse needed medication , knows all the withdrawal times and what drugs to use." Horse racing has no future when the prerequisit for a career as a trainer is the knowledge of drugs.

[dkithore]

How do trainers, jockeys, and owners define success? :lol:

You're wasting your lives. Repeat after me. You can't handicap drugs. You can't handicap drugs.

Since you did not qualify your statement with IMO, I assume, this your opinion. am I correct? If not, you must have insider info. that all races produce winners that are drugged. Please enlighten us. (sarcasm not intended).

[raybo]

Make sure you read the comments underneath too. There's some trainers commenting, other people who have worked in horse racing, a guy who wrote a book on the cheating in the sport.


Now if those comments were posted on this website, they would probably be deleted because it's obvious to me the guys running this website are no different than the the insiders in this sport, they are trying to keep the very very very DARK side of this sport hidden as long as possible. This website is a business after all.

They've been censoring me heavily but every thing I said is true. And every link I posted is true.Perhaps you should start your own thread, titling it according to what your subject will be, rather than encroaching on threads that are about other racing topics. Hijacking threads is not looked upon positively here, or on any other site or forum.

So, if you're going to beat your own drum, please do it in your own thread.

[LLHorses]

Since you did not qualify your statement with IMO, I assume, this your opinion. am I correct? If not, you must have insider info. that all races produce winners that are drugged. Please enlighten us. (sarcasm not intended).





Well the article pretty much verifies that Scott Lake became the leading trainer in the country by using Clenbuterol.

Do some research about Dermorphin (frog juice) Recently they busted some trainers down in Louisiana and there was 11 horses juiced with that drug and if I remember correctly 10 of them won the race and the other horse finished second to a horse that was juiced on Dermorphin.

The article mentions a drug that is found in AFRIN, Oxymetazoline. 38 horses were given this drug, 31 of them won the race and another 5 horses finished 2nd.

[dkithore]

Well the article pretty much verifies that Scott Lake became the leading trainer in the country by using Clenbuterol.

Do some research about Dermorphin (frog juice) Recently they busted some trainers down in Louisiana and there was 11 horses juiced with that drug and if I remember correctly 10 of them won the race and the other horse finished second to a horse that was juiced on Dermorphin.

The article mentions a drug that is found in AFRIN, Oxymetazoline. 38 horses were given this drug, 31 of them won the race and another 5 horses finished 2nd.

Thank you for being specific. Now can you take a guess and say what percentage or range perhaps belongs to the drugged horses? Perhaps Raybo is correct and you should start a separate thread. I find it interesting because in Australia, one of the leading trainers for Godolphin was fined for positive testing. We, players do not know how rampant this problem is. Perhaps we can handicap trainers (rather than horses) on a scale of most astute drug pushers to the least, if possible. LOL.

[dkithore]

Well the article pretty much verifies that Scott Lake became the leading trainer in the country by using Clenbuterol.

Do some research about Dermorphin (frog juice) Recently they busted some trainers down in Louisiana and there was 11 horses juiced with that drug and if I remember correctly 10 of them won the race and the other horse finished second to a horse that was juiced on Dermorphin.

The article mentions a drug that is found in AFRIN, Oxymetazoline. 38 horses were given this drug, 31 of them won the race and another 5 horses finished 2nd.

Don't you think that the enforcement agencies should test all winners everywhere, before dispensing the prize money check? Or is this a naive statement on my part?

[Stillriledup]

Success means having a house in Aspen, one in Acapulco, a penthouse in New York, a mansion in Malibu, a 60 foot yacht, an eight-seat Windstar, a Bell Jet Ranger, a Bentley, a personal trainer, a full-time chef, a live-in masseuse, and a staff of 24.

All kidding aside, i think that success in racing is showing a long term profit either betting or owning. Its hard to say you're successful if you don't actually beat the races.

[PaceAdvantage]

Now if those comments were posted on this website, they would probably be deleted because it's obvious to me the guys running this website are no different than the the insiders in this sport, they are trying to keep the very very very DARK side of this sport hidden as long as possible. This website is a business after all.

They've been censoring me heavily but every thing I said is true. And every link I posted is true.Oh Lordy...more persecution complex. As if nobody is ever allowed to talk about the "DARK" side of this game. Jesus Christ man, give your head a shake. There is all sorts of talk about the dirty underbelly of this game on this site. You're just spouting off for effect because you have a hard-on for me...

But you're right about one thing though... :lol:

[Elliott Sidewater]

Tom. you and I are pretty close on this one. I am not a pro, so my goal is to have fun while not losing money. Racing is to me what golf is to others, a great challenge, much of which is played out inside one's thoughts. I used to have a goal of more winning days than losing days for the calendar year, but that actually proved to be counterproductive.

[ten2oneormore]

I'll consider it a success when I get every race right or keep trying to be more efficient until I do.

[pktruckdriver]

When I wake up each morning.

patrick

[barn32]

"The only bad luck for a gambler is bad health. All the rest is just temporary
aggravation."


~Jack Binion~

[traynor]

When I wake up each morning.

patrick

You sound like one of mine. If that is so, there is a reason for you to wake each morning. It is not time yet.

Those who have spent their lives wrapped in comfortable illusions, rarely stepping beyond the narrow confines to the real world outside, would never understand what it is to awaken so. A pity. They give up so much to gain so little. I am not one of those.

[HUSKER55]

good point. dad used to say that if you don't get knocked down or don't risk enough to get your heart pounding then there is no way to savor the victory when you have won.

[turninforhome10]

good point. dad used to say that if you don't get knocked down or don't risk enough to get your heart pounding then there is no way to savor the victory when you have won.
Your dad was very wise
Here is one similar
Life has a certain flavor for those who have fought and risked all that the sheltered and protected can never experience.
John Stuart Mill

[traynor]

good point. dad used to say that if you don't get knocked down or don't risk enough to get your heart pounding then there is no way to savor the victory when you have won.

It sounds like your dad would not have had much respect for the bean counters endlessly searching for certainty and a "guaranteed return with a positive ROI" while wagering trivial amounts to earn trivial amounts.

The question would be then, "Which group has a better understanding of how to wager on thoroughbred horse races?" One could argue that picking up aluminum cans alongside the highway for recycling is like getting "free money." It is, as long as one does not consider their time worth anything. (Creative "explanations" of "I would be doing this anyway" are pointless, and will be ignored.)

I started this thread after doing a careful review of expenses from last year's local meet(s). Thoroughbred races in the afternoon, harness races at night, with tracks some distance from me, and from each other. Considering transportation as a "business expense" I need a bare bones minimum of $7500 to break even for the five-month season. Anything less than that, and I am paying out-of-pocket to go to the track. That is considering I work for free--if I calculated the hours of "racing-related activity" during the season at minimum wage, the break-even figure would be about $17,500. To be meaningful, any "POI" would need to compensate for all expenses first, THEN calculate a "profit."

[traynor]

There is nothing wrong with recreational betting, and recreational handicapping. It is the point where the recreational bettors and recreational handicappers believe themselves qualified to offer advice to those intent on earning an income from wagering that raises questions.

There is a substantial difference between wagering small amounts of money according to a model derived from races in which the modeler did not wager, and wagering significant amounts of money with the intent of gaining significant return. That difference goes way beyond doing the same thing but just betting larger amounts.

It all depends on what a bettor considers "success" to be. That is not to denigrate the accomplishments of those recreational bettors who break even or make a modest return on their wagers. It is to say they might be doing themselves a favor by aiming a bit higher. Especially those who believe they have an advantage.

[eurocapper]

In my opinion someone like traynor has a fairly good prospect of profiting with thoroughbreds if he would forget about pace and cold exactas and focus on trainers. Pace is yesterdays method. The works of Taulbot seems to give some insight into betting trainer mentality, though dated.

[Tom]

Pace is yesterdays method.

Maybe it just passed you by.

[Robert Goren]

Trainers have always been the key to profits at this sport. It is lot of work keeping track of them at even one track or circuit. People trying to keep track of them on multiple circuits will go insane rather quickly. The stuff that formulator gives you is useful, but the real money is in the stuff it doesn't give you. Profiling crooks is never easy and that what you have to do in this game.
Doing the math stuff with speed and pace ratings is fun, but seldom very profitable in the long run. That said, I dabble a little in it myself. A box of index cards of trainers and the stunts they pull is far more useful, but a lot more boring and require a ton of patience to build and a ton of patience waiting for them to try the same stunt again. Remember that each trainer has his own unique bag of tricks. Just because one trainer does it, does mean another trainer will win with a similar pattern.
"Crooked" trainer stunts and strong track biases, to me, is the best way for the small bettor to make money.

[thaskalos]

There is nothing wrong with recreational betting, and recreational handicapping. It is the point where the recreational bettors and recreational handicappers believe themselves qualified to offer advice to those intent on earning an income from wagering that raises questions.

There is a substantial difference between wagering small amounts of money according to a model derived from races in which the modeler did not wager, and wagering significant amounts of money with the intent of gaining significant return. That difference goes way beyond doing the same thing but just betting larger amounts.

It all depends on what a bettor considers "success" to be. That is not to denigrate the accomplishments of those recreational bettors who break even or make a modest return on their wagers. It is to say they might be doing themselves a favor by aiming a bit higher. Especially those who believe they have an advantage.

I have come to believe that wagering significant amounts of money properly may be outside the psychological capabilities of most players. And it does not appear to be something that the player can be "trained" to do over time. All the "bigger" bettors that I know were betting serious amounts from early on in their gambling careers. If they were betting $20 a race 30 years ago...it was because that was all they could afford.

Aside from bankroll concerns, there is a psychological barrier that needs to be overcome when a small bettor looks to make the leap to betting significant sums...and the vast majority just cannot do it -- and still maintain their sanity, and their bankroll.

Serious handicapping may well be a "science"...but serious betting is an art, as far as I am concerned.

[Robert Goren]

Some people bet differently when they start make a larger than previously did. It is phenomenon that I seen happen many times. Profitable $2 bettors who have suddenly come into some money and started betting say $20, bet different horses a lot of times than they did when they were betting $2. I can't even begin to explain it, but I seen happen. The amazing thing is when they lose enough to go back to betting $2, they go back to the way they bet before they started betting $20. Human nature is a funny thing.

[Tom]

Trainers have always been one of the keys to profits at this sport.


FTFY

[Robert Goren]

FTFYThanks anyway, but I had it right the first time.

[Robert Fischer]

The whole men vs. boys thing with wager size has to be taken very carefully, and in context.

Sure, comparing recreational players to serious players kind of automatically frames the issue.

But among serious players, there need not be a large psychological response involved with wager size or even the result of a race. In fact, a large psychological response here can be a pitfall.

[Magister Ludi]

The whole men vs. boys thing with wager size has to be taken very carefully, and in context.

Sure, comparing recreational players to serious players kind of automatically frames the issue.

But among serious players, there need not be a large psychological response involved with wager size or even the result of a race. In fact, a large psychological response here can be a pitfall.

Well said, Mr. Fischer! Making optimally-sized investments with positive expected values is all that's important. Realizing a gain or a loss on an investment is immaterial.

[traynor]

In my opinion someone like traynor has a fairly good prospect of profiting with thoroughbreds if he would forget about pace and cold exactas and focus on trainers. Pace is yesterdays method. The works of Taulbot seems to give some insight into betting trainer mentality, though dated.

I did a large data mining project that included every race run in Australia and New Zealand for five years. The conclusion was exactly as you state above--any approach focused primarily on the horses, whether pace, speed, class, or whatever else--was nowhere near as productive as studying the trainers, with wagers made in conjunction with modest qualifiers for determing "live" horses. Specifically, an entry from a good trainer that showed signs of life was a far better bet than all the top pace ratings, speed ratings, and whatever else.

I consider pace as a performance indicator, but I am definitely not a "pace handicapper."

[traynor]

I have come to believe that wagering significant amounts of money properly may be outside the psychological capabilities of most players. And it does not appear to be something that the player can be "trained" to do over time. All the "bigger" bettors that I know were betting serious amounts from early on in their gambling careers. If they were betting $20 a race 30 years ago...it was because that was all they could afford.

Aside from bankroll concerns, there is a psychological barrier that needs to be overcome when a small bettor looks to make the leap to betting significant sums...and the vast majority just cannot do it -- and still maintain their sanity, and their bankroll.

Serious handicapping may well be a "science"...but serious betting is an art, as far as I am concerned.

I think it is more that the serious bettors are looking for a serious return, while the recreational bettors are looking a few winners to offset the cost of recreation. It is a fundamentally different mindset.

[Overlay]

I did a large data mining project that included every race run in Australia and New Zealand for five years. The conclusion was exactly as you state above--any approach focused primarily on the horses, whether pace, speed, class, or whatever else--was nowhere near as productive as studying the trainers, with wagers made in conjunction with modest qualifiers for determing "live" horses. Specifically, an entry from a good trainer that showed signs of life was a far better bet than all the top pace ratings, speed ratings, and whatever else.

I consider pace as a performance indicator, but I am definitely not a "pace handicapper."
You seem to be referring to the ability of the trainer from a "straight" perspective (i.e., that the better trainers will win more than their share of races). What is your take on darkened form or "hidden" trainer intent, that can be detected (according to some schools of thought) through analysis of tote patterns that are indicative of an attempt to pull off a betting coup?

[traynor]

The whole men vs. boys thing with wager size has to be taken very carefully, and in context.

Sure, comparing recreational players to serious players kind of automatically frames the issue.

But among serious players, there need not be a large psychological response involved with wager size or even the result of a race. In fact, a large psychological response here can be a pitfall.

Not if wagering is viewed--just like any other business--as a profit-generating endeavor. It is mixing it with the notion of "recreational activity" that makes it murky. Consider it like retail business--the recreational better is the equivalent of the local mom-and-pop variety store. The serious bettor is the equivalent of Wal-Mart. Guess who will end up with all the marbles?

[traynor]

You seem to be referring to the ability of the trainer from a "straight" perspective (i.e., that the better trainers will win more than their share of races). What is your take on darkened form or "hidden" trainer intent, that can be detected (according to some schools of thought) through analysis of tote patterns that are indicative of an attempt to pull off a betting coup?

The ability of trainers studied was not "straight," as in wins, places, shows, earnings, first-time starters, etc. We used data mining processes to locate "indicators." then correleated the indicators with a trainer rating developed specifically for the purpose. It could be roughly considered "trainer patterns" but not exactly what that term is generally assumed to mean.

One thing that was not included (and not considered necessary) was an analysis of tote patterns. North American racing is different, as far as tote odds are concerned. However, I have never seen anything indicating convincingly that "following the smart money on the tote board" was anything more than chasing rainbows.

Betting coups are a fact of life. Given the time and effort needed to set them up and to assure that they do not conflict with some other trainer's attempted betting coup, it doesn't seem a productive area for profit. Way too many "false positives."

[pondman]

Aside from bankroll concerns, there is a psychological barrier that needs to be overcome when a small bettor looks to make the leap to betting significant sums...and the vast majority just cannot do it -- and still maintain their sanity, and their bankroll.

Like most creative pursuits, it is usually the kook, stumbling around in his garage, that harnesses electricity. And the reason he is successful is because nobody believes him. He'd step outside more, but the committee will laugh at him. Most humans can't live in this state very long. Either they give up before achieving success, settling for a day job, or they go on to be seen as an odd duck, wearing orange sunglasses. Nobody becomes a #1 player of anything, without appearing a little different.

[traynor]

Before someone decides I am picking on recreational bettors, I want to emphasize that I am a very pragmatic person, and I have the same skepticism in regard to other fields. It is not the making of large wagers that is the determining factor--it is the ability to win a significant number of those large wagers with aplomb and equanimity that really matters.

As Robert Goren pointed out, some people seem as if they are made more uncomfortable by winning than they are by losing. My hero is the guy who can make a major score and simply smile and observe, "I'm a nice person. I deserve this." And then go back in the next race and do it again. And again. That is the person whose advice I consider meaningful and significant. Not the guy who claims an ROI of 1.234 or whatever, and is betting peanuts.

[traynor]

Like most creative pursuits, it is usually the kook, stumbling around in his garage, that harnesses electricity. And the reason he is successful is because nobody believes him. He'd step outside more, but the committee will laugh at him. Most humans can't live in this state very long. Either they give up before achieving success, settling for a day job, or they go on to be seen as an odd duck, wearing orange sunglasses. Nobody becomes a #1 player of anything, without appearing a little different.

I agree, with the use of a more psychological term to describe the kook as "having a high level of self-efficacy." It is not so much that he or she is successful because nobody believes him (or her). It is that she or he doesn't give a rat's patootie if anyone believes him or her or not. They don't need pats on the head (or wherever) from the committee.

[pondman]

It is that she or he doesn't give a rat's patootie if anyone believes him or her or not. They don't need pats on the head (or wherever) from the committee.

They don't need pats from the committee, because they know the committee is wrong. Part of the creative process is to throw out the ideas to the committee and being told they are wrong. Successful people do this over and over again. But they don't neglect or avoid the step. They love appearing nuts in front of their gambling peers. I've said this before, "When I lose with a $300 win bet, I'm told I've got a real problems. When I cash for 10k, I was just lucky." The bets were on the same group of horse. Same bet. I don't see the 2 bets as being any different. But the committee does. The committee rationalizes it, the individual doesn't. Doesn't matter what industry, people who are successful will throw out crazy stuff, and some of those crazy ideas will become home runs.

[traynor]

They don't need pats from the committee, because they know the committee is wrong. Part of the creative process is to throw out the ideas to the committee and being told they are wrong. Successful people do this over and over again. But they don't neglect or avoid the step. They love appearing nuts in front of their gambling peers. I've said this before, "When I lose with a $300 win bet, I'm told I've got a real problems. When I cash for 10k, I was just lucky." The bets were on the same group of horse. Same bet. I don't see the 2 bets as being any different. But the committee does. The committee rationalizes it, the individual doesn't. Doesn't matter what industry, people who are successful will throw out crazy stuff, and some of those crazy ideas will become home runs.

You are quite correct. In fact, the tendency is so common that it has its own label--the fundamental attribution error.

It is great that the committee is so often wrong--it helps to bulk up the mutuel pools.

[Greyfox]

Specifically, an entry from a good trainer that showed signs of life was a far better bet than all the top pace ratings, speed ratings, and whatever else.

."

That's interesting. I have a brother who loves the races and loves betting and has done so for over 50 years.
He has always bet trainers and signs of life.
He considers himself quite happy when he only loses $2000 a year.
He says: "That's a cheap price for the entertainment I get."

But the reason I'm posting this is not about my brother.

Your study was done of Australia and New Zealand races.

Do the racing forms in Australia and New Zealand have Pace and Speed Ratings as we know them in North America?

[raybo]

That's interesting. I have a brother who loves the races and loves betting and has done so for over 50 years.
He has always bet trainers and signs of life.
He considers himself quite happy when he only loses $2000 a year.
He says: "That's a cheap price for the entertainment I get."

But the reason I'm posting this is not about my brother.

Your study was done of Australia and New Zealand races.

Do the racing forms in Australia and New Zealand have Pace and Speed Ratings as we know them in North America?

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing. I guess they had people clocking all those races.

[Tom]

And making the pace figures, since that was not a very clear topic in another thread. Might explain they did so poorly.

[traynor]

That's interesting. I have a brother who loves the races and loves betting and has done so for over 50 years.
He has always bet trainers and signs of life.
He considers himself quite happy when he only loses $2000 a year.
He says: "That's a cheap price for the entertainment I get."

But the reason I'm posting this is not about my brother.

Your study was done of Australia and New Zealand races.

Do the racing forms in Australia and New Zealand have Pace and Speed Ratings as we know them in North America?

They can be purchased from very astute developers who chart the races from videos and create their own data. Not as easily accessible as the race data in North America, but some would argue the quality is better, and often much better. Anyone wagering serious amounts of money can find pace figures (points of call and lengths behind, as well as position relative to the rail and trip notes) that are quite accurate. Because there are a number of vendors, there is a high level of competition to produce "the best" data. If that data is not accurate, the vendor doesn't last long. Darwinism in action.

[Greyfox]

They can be purchased from very astute developers who chart the races from videos and create their own data. .

Interesting.

From your conclusions about Australian and New Zealand races, I presume that you purchased or were privy to that data regarding Pace and Speed from those astute observers.

Thank you.

Greyfox

[traynor]

Interesting.

From your conclusions about Australian and New Zealand races, I presume that you purchased or were privy to that data regarding Pace and Speed from those astute observers.

Thank you.

Greyfox

Yes. It was their database.

[bob60566]

They can be purchased from very astute developers who chart the races from videos and create their own data. Not as easily accessible as the race data in North America, but some would argue the quality is better, and often much better. Anyone wagering serious amounts of money can find pace figures (points of call and lengths behind, as well as position relative to the rail and trip notes) that are quite accurate. Because there are a number of vendors, there is a high level of competition to produce "the best" data. If that data is not accurate, the vendor doesn't last long. Darwinism in action.

No further comment :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

So you are saying that all speed figure services here in the USA are equal?

[DeltaLover]

So you are saying that all speed figure services here in the USA are equal?

All speed figures are not equal of course, but they are close to each other. They all are measuring the same thing thus it is reasonable to expect than a valid methodology will have a close correlation to any other.

The interesting and challenging part is not the creation of speed figures but how they will be used to derive useful handicapping opinions.

[traynor]

All speed figures are not equal of course, but they are close to each other. They all are measuring the same thing thus it is reasonable to expect than a valid methodology will have a close correlation to any other.

The interesting and challenging part is not the creation of speed figures but how they will be used to derive useful handicapping opinions.

Similarities should be expected when the basic data input to create the speed figure output is the same. If there is a data monopoly (and closed system), the manipulation of that data is likely to have a great deal of similarity from vendor to vendor. Everyone is massaging the same basic set of numbers.

[bob60566]

Similarities should be expected when the basic data input to create the speed figure output is the same. If there is a data monopoly (and closed system), the manipulation of that data is likely to have a great deal of similarity from vendor to vendor. Everyone is massaging the same basic set of numbers.
You have a way with words :) .
Excellent post :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

They are not all using the same data and they are not all massaging it the same way. You suggest that the speed figs in the $1 BIS files are comparable to the Sheets at $25 a day? And that they are calculated the same way?

Why would anyone pay $25 for sheets when they could bet BRIS for a buck?

And then there are CJ's, a cutting edge way to calculate a variant unlike anything else out there.

[DeltaLover]

Why would anyone pay $25 for sheets when they could bet BRIS for a buck?


Good marketing....

[bob60566]

They are not all using the same data and they are not all massaging it the same way. You suggest that the speed figs in the $1 BIS files are comparable to the Sheets at $25 a day? And that they are calculated the same way?

Why would anyone pay $25 for sheets when they could bet BRIS for a buck?

And then there are CJ's, a cutting edge way to calculate a variant unlike anything else out there.

Tom
On the above
They are not using the same Data :confused: ?Then they are not all massaging the same way?.

[Tom]

No, some hand time from the gate, some factor in distance out, wind, some project, some use class pars, some use pace based on final time, some use the horse's time, some use the pace of race.

[raybo]

No, some hand time from the gate, some factor in distance out, wind, some project, some use class pars, some use pace based on final time, some use the horse's time, some use the pace of race.

Agree, all speed figures are NOT the same, by any means. As I've said before, if I was a pace/speed figure user, and I could get CJ's figs, I would definitely be using his.

[thaskalos]

Even if all the speed and pace figures were basically the same -- and they are not -- does this mean that all the players would get the same results while using them?

Speed and pace figures are not like power ratings...where the horse's ability is somehow condenced into a single number. There are speed and pace figures provided for every race that a horse has run...and these figures often fluctuate wildly. Do we use the last "representitive race"...or do we average the best two of the last four? How about the best race of the last three?

One horse has an 85 speed figure in his last race -- which is the highest last race rating in the field -- but another horse in the same race has a 90 figure in his third-race back, at the same race type as today's...and may have had an excuse in its latest effort. Who is the "figure horse" now?

A horse shows outstanding early pace figures in his last race, but has not gone this fast before...and is rising in class today...to face horses who -- although they don't have the lofty last-race pace figure that he has -- are a lot more consistent than he is. Who is the "pace horse" here?

I can only shake my head when I hear people say that speed and pace figures are useless -- because everybody has them.

I use the same figures as anybody else...but I am convinced that nobody uses them like I use them. I am not saying "better", mind you...I am saying "different".

The skill is in the craftsman...not in the tools that he uses.

[raybo]

Even if all the speed and pace figures were basically the same -- and they are not -- does this mean that all the players would get the same results while using them?

Speed and pace figures are not like power ratings...where the horse's ability is somehow condenced into a single number. There are speed and pace figures provided for every race that a horse has run...and these figures often fluctuate wildly. Do we use the last "representitive race"...or do we average the best two of the last four? How about the best race of the last three?

One horse has an 85 speed figure in his last race -- which is the highest last race rating in the field -- but another horse in the same race has a 90 figure in his third-race back, at the same race type as today's...and may have had an excuse in its latest effort. Who is the "figure horse" now?

A horse shows outstanding early pace figures in his last race, but has not gone this fast before...and is rising in class today...to face horses who -- although they don't have the lofty last-race pace figure that he has -- are a lot more consistent than he is. Who is the "pace horse" here?

I can only shake my head when I hear people say that speed and pace figures are useless -- because everybody has them.

I use the same figures as anybody else...but I am convinced that nobody uses them like I use them. I am not saying "better", mind you...I am saying "different".

The skill is in the craftsman...not in the tools that he uses.

Very true. Many use them but in their own way, very few use them exactly the same way. Now, if you're using Bris Prime Power, then all will be using the same exact numbers, thus the reason best Prime Power, alone, has a high hit rate but loses ,money long term. Everybody who uses them, alone, has exactly the same numbers and gets the same "best" PP horse in the race..

[Tom]

The situation was that the figures were tested and found to be less reliable than trainer stats, so all the user interface was removed and the figure were mechanically tested, same way every time. In effect, there was no craftsman.

But more to your point if a craftsman has inferior figures, he will not use them as effectively as cold use superior figures. There is only so much you can get out a sow's ear. If you numbers are crap, you can't fix that, only make intelligent decisions with bad data.

[bob60566]

Very true. Many use them but in their own way, very few use them exactly the same way. Now, if you're using Bris Prime Power, then all will be using the same exact numbers, thus the reason best Prime Power, alone, has a high hit rate but loses ,money long term. Everybody who uses them, alone, has exactly the same numbers and gets the same "best" PP horse in the race..

Ray
If i was using Bris power numbers i agree we would all be using the same, so if i was using A company numbers they would be different from Bris.Same with B company. But does all three not use the original data to arrive at there four numbers?

[turninforhome10]

Has anyone in this forum really had long had any long term success with Bris power? It seems to me that their predictive value goes further to making favorites rather than suggesting how the horse will perform today.

[raybo]

Has anyone in this forum really had long had any long term success with Bris power? It seems to me that their predictive value goes further to making favorites rather than suggesting how the horse will perform today.

Last I heard the Bris Prime Power rating was hitting 38% winners, but the average payout sucked.

As a stand alone factor, it is unprofitable, but used with other factors it has much potential, wouldn't you think?

[turninforhome10]

Last I heard the Bris Prime Power rating was hitting 38% winners, but the average payout sucked.

As a stand alone factor, it is unprofitable, but used with other factors it has much potential, wouldn't you think?
I would think that PP would be best used when a horse is not drastically moving up or down in class or condition. I am running a test now in the DB to see how it performs in N1X and MCL and will report back.

[raybo]

Ray
If i was using Bris power numbers i agree we would all be using the same, so if i was using A company numbers they would be different from Bris.Same with B company. But does all three not use the original data to arrive at there four numbers?

Bris Prime Power is a proprietary power figure, what it uses as factors, or how they are weighted, is unknown. So, yes, if you used a power figure from another provider, they would definitely be different, because they all would not be using the same factors, or the same weighting. Same with pace and speed figures, they are not all created equally, some us different data and/or weight it differently, so they are not the same, even though some may use some of the same raw data. The weighting and exact data used would have to be exactly the same for them to be equal.

These are called "figures" or "ratings" and are not the same from one provider to another provider, for the above reasons.

[raybo]

I would think that PP would be best used when a horse is not drastically moving up or down in class or condition. I am running a test now in the DB to see how it performs in N1X and MCL and will report back.

Cool! It was reported at some time in the past, that among the top data providers, as a single factor, Bris' Prime Power had the best hit rate of all single factors. Don't know if that is still true now.

[turninforhome10]

Using Maiden claimers on the fast turf going 8.5f at GP the PP picked 39.3% winners in 103 races with an ROI of -22%
Using N1X on the fast turf going 8.5f at GP the PP picked 60.3% winners in 38 races with and ROI of -81%. Would this mean that the 39.7% would have killed any profit?
Using Graded Stakes going 9f on a fast dirt it picked winners at 50% in 20 races with and ROI of 89%. The best of any.
So IMHO Bris Power would work best for high class types that would hold form and not be moving through conditions.
Can anyone confirm this?

[Robert Goren]

Almost everybody use data that comes from equibase. How they manipulate that data varies greatly. If there is something wrong with data coming from an equibase chart, then everybody is screwed. Unfortunately, if you watch the replays, you will find equibase makes a lot of mistakes on data other than the finish. This leads to problems on pace ratings on horses that are not on the lead. The lengths back at the partial calls are all over the place. In fact, they often do even have postion right at the those calls. It is too bad that nobody else provides that data. This problem has been discussed many times here.

[traynor]

Almost everybody use data that comes from equibase. How they manipulate that data varies greatly. If there is something wrong with data coming from an equibase chart, then everybody is screwed. Unfortunately, if you watch the replays, you will find equibase makes a lot of mistakes on data other than the finish. This leads to problems on pace ratings on horses that are not on the lead. The lengths back at the partial calls are all over the place. In fact, they often do even have postion right at the those calls. It is too bad that nobody else provides that data. This problem has been discussed many times here.

That is what I was referring to as a "closed system." To be outside that closed system, speed and pace charts would need to be made that did not use, reference, or depend on Equibase data in any way. Meaning if Equibase went offline for a month and shut down completely, the maker of the speed and pace figures would continue business as usual, without ever even noticing the lack of Equibase data availability.

[raybo]

Almost everybody use data that comes from equibase. How they manipulate that data varies greatly. If there is something wrong with data coming from an equibase chart, then everybody is screwed. Unfortunately, if you watch the replays, you will find equibase makes a lot of mistakes on data other than the finish. This leads to problems on pace ratings on horses that are not on the lead. The lengths back at the partial calls are all over the place. In fact, they often do even have postion right at the those calls. It is too bad that nobody else provides that data. This problem has been discussed many times here.

Yup! We gotta use what we got though. No provider is perfect, and neither are we, so even if the data was perfect, we would still not be perfect, we would still get different horses and different results, because we use that data differently.

Heck, we can't even agree on what a pace figure, or a speed figure, really is.

[raybo]

That is what I was referring to as a "closed system." To be outside that closed system, speed and pace charts would need to be made that did not use, reference, or depend on Equibase data in any way. Meaning if Equibase went offline for a month and shut down completely, the maker of the speed and pace figures would continue business as usual, without ever even noticing the lack of Equibase data availability.

You're really getting out there Traynor. Do you think Equibase is really likely to shut down? They make way too much money to do that. I understand what you're saying but reality is reality, and what ifs are what ifs.

[Tom]

Last I heard the Bris Prime Power rating was hitting 38% winners, but the average payout sucked.

As a stand alone factor, it is unprofitable, but used with other factors it has much potential, wouldn't you think?

If it is 38%, then W-P, what, 50?
Powerful stat if you play exactas, or hard to ignore it you play pics.

[Tom]

Some use EB blindly, others have the ability to spot errors and work around them. Again, you cannot say just because use EB data they are using the same data all the time. Blanket generalities don't tell the whole story.

[raybo]

If it is 38%, then W-P, what, 50?
Powerful stat if you play exactas, or hard to ignore it you play pics.

Probably about that, at very low prices though, on average. Yeah, if I was a pics player I would pay attention to the high PrPwr in each leg, but not necessarily play them just for that reason. Other things to consider. Remember, everyone that uses Bris data files or their Ultimates has that figure.

[ubercapper]

Almost everybody use data that comes from equibase. How they manipulate that data varies greatly. If there is something wrong with data coming from an equibase chart, then everybody is screwed. Unfortunately, if you watch the replays, you will find equibase makes a lot of mistakes on data other than the finish. This leads to problems on pace ratings on horses that are not on the lead. The lengths back at the partial calls are all over the place. In fact, they often do even have postion right at the those calls. It is too bad that nobody else provides that data. This problem has been discussed many times here.

When you spot errors in charts, please report them to feedback@equibase.com as they will be investigated.

[traynor]

When you spot errors in charts, please report them to feedback@equibase.com as they will be investigated.

Can we bill them for time spent editing to detect errors they should never have allowed to take place?

[Eddie W]

Really betting at the track....And not fakeing it on the bb board
and really winning the pick6....That is sucess....TCB

[traynor]

Really betting at the track....And not fakeing it on the bb board
and really winning the pick6....That is sucess....TCB

Assuming, of course, that one likes the Pick 6. I am a big fan of the rolling Pick 3 and exactas.