 |
PA 2000 IE -- Preakness Stakes Analysis |
| Data for Saturday, May 20, 2000 | |
|
PA 2000 IE -- Preakness Stakes Analysis |
| Data for Saturday, May 20, 2000 | |
Preakness 2000 (Fast Track)
RAC00520.PIM DIST= 9.5 f CLASS=GST PROGR NUM/NAME RS Q ODDS BL1 BL2 BL3 T1 T2 T3 TT LF DSL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (5)HIGH YIELD E 6 3.7 0.71 0.01 0.00 47.1 70.5 116.6 56.57 50.65 14 (4)RED BULLET E/P5 4.5 7.13 7.88 0.35 48.4 72.0 116.6 55.88 52.97 35 (7)FUSAICHI PEG E/P5 5.9 4.50 7.69 1.10 47.9 72.0 116.8 54.75 52.03 14 (2)SNUCK IN E/P5 8.2 10.07 7.86 2.53 49.0 72.0 117.1 57.31 52.44 35 (6)CAPTAIN STEV P 2 26.0 12.07 13.88 6.08 49.4 73.2 117.8 55.38 52.44 14 (8)HAL'S HOPE E 8 37.2 0.71 0.00 7.67 47.1 70.5 118.1 56.58 49.00 14 (3)IMPEACHMENT S 0 297.6 24.68 22.32 15.26 51.9 74.9 119.6 57.39 52.26 14 (1)HUGH HEFNER E 5 297.6 0.00 5.07 16.01 47.0 71.5 119.8 53.91 48.53 20
Preakness 2000 (Wet Track)
RAC00520.PIM DIST= 9.5 f CLASS=GST PROGR NUM/NAME RS Q ODDS BL1 BL2 BL3 T1 T2 T3 TT LF DSL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (7)FUSAICHI PEG E/P5 2.1 4.93 5.07 0.00 48.0 71.9 115.9 55.06 53.02 14 (5)HIGH YIELD E 6 5.3 1.17 0.00 2.85 47.2 70.9 116.5 55.67 51.28 14 (2)SNUCK IN E/P5 6.8 13.07 5.02 3.54 49.6 71.9 116.6 59.09 52.88 35 (4)RED BULLET E/P5 16.7 4.93 3.38 7.18 48.0 71.6 117.3 55.85 51.63 35 (3)IMPEACHMENT S 0 16.7 18.36 11.76 7.19 50.7 73.3 117.3 58.34 53.02 14 (6)CAPTAIN STEV P 2 113.7 3.94 4.26 12.09 47.8 71.8 118.3 54.97 50.17 14 (8)HAL'S HOPE E 8 303.2 1.29 0.45 18.39 47.2 71.0 119.6 55.51 48.06 14 (1)HUGH HEFNER E 5 303.2 0.00 2.70 19.30 47.0 71.5 119.8 53.91 48.53 20
(For An Explanation Of The Rankings Used Here, Consult The PA 2000 User's
Guide)
Nice cop-out, right? List Fusaichi Pegasus on top if it's wet, High Yield if it's
dry.
In any event, in all honesty, putting all numbers aside, I can't see Fusaichi Pegasus
losing this race unless
he either regresses terribly off the Derby effort, or he God-forbid injures himself.
The winged-one looked
like he was ready to race again while he was walking back to the winner's circle last time
out, so I can't imagine
the effort took more out of him then anyone else he's facing here who also raced in the
Derby. So, that leaves
us with fresh newcomers in Snuck In, Red Bullet, and Hugh Hefner. I won't even
bother commenting on
Hugh Hefner except to say that if he wins tomorrow, I'll..........
Anyway. From an early pace perspective, it seems obvious that Hal's Hope will get
the early lead. Not only
do his figures point this out, but his trainer has said all along their plan is to gun him
to the front and see how
long he can last. Again, I don't see Pat Day allowing High Yield to stick close to
Hal's Hope early, even though
he's quite capable of matching strides with that one, as is Hugh Hefner, who will most
likely also be a major
player early on. But, while Hal's Hope should last until they turn for home, Hugh
Hefner should be fading away
somewhere on the final turn.
Catching the embattled leaders (Hal's Hope and Hugh Hefner) first should be either Snuck
In or High Yield. I
think Snuck In is the more talented of the two, but High Yield could benefit greatly from
a masterful ride from Pat
Day. I think High Yield's chances rest entirely in the hands of Day, which isn't
always great cause for confidence.
Up to this point, I haven't mentioned Fusaichi Pegasus. FuPeg has always been sort
of an enigma to me numbers-wise.
He never has gotten dominant figures on my ratings. I think if he's going to lose
any leg of the Triple Crown, it should
be this race, because this race, more than the other two, is more akin to your average
every day race at any racetrack
in the country. Plus, as you notice by my figures, really any one of four
(High Yield, Fusaichi Pegasus, Snuck In, and
Red Bullet) could easily win this race. The fast track ratings have these four
separated by merely 2.5 lengths at the wire.
That's by the figures. Reality may be a totality different story.
If I sound confused up until this point, it's because I am. It's late, and I have a
conflict in my head. The horse
that won the Kentucky Derby LOOKED like a world beater. The figures tell another
story. Can Fusaichi
Pegasus win the Preakness? Of course he can....easily. Is he worth the price
of 1-5, which he currently is in
the early wagering? Of course not. That's why whether wet or dry, I'm going to
be playing against Fusaichi
Pegasus. I'll probably concentrate my play on High Yield and Snuck In, as they are
the two most likely to go
off at decent prices. Most likely, I will simply play straight win bets on both of
those horses, because half
of me is saying Fusaichi Pegasus can't lose, so don't waste your money too much trying to
beat him. The other
half is saying that 10-1 on High Yield and 12-1 on Snuck In is too good to pass up, flying
horse or no flying
horse.
If you try and beat Fusaichi Pegasus, good luck, cause we're probably going to need it.
Win or lose, betting
against him at 3-5 is the right thing to do.