The Dwyer

RAC80709.BEL  DIST= 8.5 f  CLASS=GST
PROGR NUM/NAME   RS Q ODDS  BL1   BL2    BL3    T1   T2    T3    TT    LF    DSL  AP    %E
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(3)MORE THAN RE  E/P7   1.4  0.18  0.00   0.00  45.9  70.1 103.1 54.64 50.56 64   55.02 52.71
(4)ALBERT THE G  E  8   3.6  0.00  2.34   2.71  45.9  70.5 103.6 53.52 50.91 30   54.84 52.37
(1)RED BULLET    E/P4   7.2  5.84  6.67   5.30  47.0  71.4 104.2 54.19 50.36 50   54.17 51.80
(2)COMMENDABLE   E  4 108.6  0.46  5.35  13.14  46.0  71.1 105.7 52.44 47.29 29   53.57 54.37

Too bad this race only came up with four entries, as it could have been bettable.  Everyone is talking about Red Bullet and Commendable.  I haven't heard much talk about More Than Ready, a serious racehorse in his own right, and one who will thrive at this distance.  This is a year when the 3yo division has no clear leader at this point.  Why should they stop beating up on each other now?  I say it's time for More Than Ready's 15 minutes of fame, so to speak!

When I first saw that PA2000 had More Than Ready on top, I thought to myself, "Oh great, another odd pick."  But then I realized that he may be the perfect selection for this race.  He has early speed, the second best turn time number in the race, and the second best final fraction in the race.   The early pace scenario could be tricky.  In a short field like this, it will probably turn into more of a jockey's race, and you want to stick fairly close to the front end, especially at a mile and a sixteenth.  Since nobody in this race has a dominant final fraction rating (LF), I am thinking either a solid pressing trip or wire to wire job is in the offing.

Don't even think about leaving Albert The Great out of the picture.  This Nick Zito trainee has been on a tear ever since they added blinkers three races back, and even though he is making his stakes debut today, his presence will definitely be felt.  Not only does he have excellent early speed, but according to my figures, he has the best closing number (LF).  Watch out for him.

A note about Commendable.  I was unable to use Commendable's Belmont race because my software doesn't process races over 10 furlongs.   I could be at a disadvantage here because of that, but even if you give Commendable 5 lengths, it won't even put him near Red Bullet, according to my figures.

THE BET:  Since Belmont is an ME² SpotLight track only, and I rate More Than Ready at 1.4-1, there is no bet in this race, as More Than Ready can not possibly qualify for an ME² bet since 1.4-1+3=4.4-1 and I need at least 9/2 to make a wager according to the ME² wagering rules.

Hollywood Gold Cup

RAC50709.HOL  DIST= 9 f  CLASS=GST
PROGR NUM/NAME   RS Q ODDS  BL1   BL2    BL3    T1   T2    T3    TT    LF    DSL  AP    %E
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(2)DAVID         E  8   2.3  0.00  0.00   0.00  45.4  69.7 108.9 54.21 51.84 36   55.57 53.08
(4)EARLY PIONEE  E/P7   9.2  8.96  8.70   4.69  47.2  71.4 109.8 54.33 52.53 28   54.70 51.27
(6)BIG TEN       E  5  10.7  9.37  8.36   5.07  47.2  71.4 109.9 54.66 52.33 28   54.69 51.46
(3)PLEASANT BRE  E/P6  10.7  4.03  5.43   5.21  46.2  70.8 109.9 53.59 51.90 36   54.93 52.16
(9)OUT OF MIND   S  0  12.2 16.52 13.90   5.32  48.7  72.5 110.0 55.40 54.28 36   54.56 50.43
(7)GENERAL CHAL  P  0  22.9 20.66 17.36   7.50  49.5  73.2 110.4 55.72 54.66 91   54.27 49.89
(5)CHESTER HOUS  E/P2  38.2 15.26 10.03   9.58  48.4  71.7 110.8 56.64 51.56 22   54.31 51.63
(1)CAT THIEF     E  7 114.6  5.75  6.20  11.43  46.5  71.0 111.2 54.01 49.70 22   54.29 52.44

It's like deja-vu all over again!  I picked David last time he faced General Challenge, and he almost won the whole thing if it weren't for Early Pioneer!  PA2000 sees a rematch of that race in the Hollywood Gold Cup, with David turning the tables on Early Pioneer big time!

I rated David off his MassCap race, and I'm wondering just how strong a race that was.  According to these figs, it was very strong, but I have my doubts.  In any event, look for David to go to the front early on and try and wire them here, as he usually does.  He's going to probably need some help from the Hollywood Park main track, as I seriously doubt David's ability to go the distance in the Gold Cup.  He has one of the worst final fractions (LF) in the field, and he's shown a propensity to fade at any distance over 1 1/16 miles everywhere except for the notoriously speed favoring (at times) Aqueduct Inner Dirt winter surface.  So, I am contradicting myself here.  On the one hand, the numbers say David is going to roll.   Upon further inspection, it appears he may have trouble with the added ground.

If I throw David out, I'm left with Early Pioneer, who should be a nice price, and with third best LF, should be around near the end.  I'm also intrigued by Big Ten, who is trained by Dick Mandella.  He's ranked third overall, should be a very generous price, and has 4th best LF in the field.  As you can see, there are a number of ways one can go in this race, especially if you don't like the probable favorite, General Challenge (which I do not).

THE BET:  Since Hollywood Park qualifies as a SpotLight track under both ME² and V2HM, there are a number of ways I can go here.  David is a ME² wager at odds of between 9/2 and 5/1 inclusive.  David and Early Pioneer are BOTH bets (V2HM) if David is at least 4-1 and Early Pioneer is at least 9-1 with no limits on how high the odds can go.

Please Note:  I was unable to rate the Gold Cup at 10 furlongs because of a program limitation as it concerns Hollywood, so I rated it at 9f.

(For An Explanation Of The Rankings Used Here, Consult The PA 2000 User's Guide)