 |
PA 2000 IE -- Belmont Stakes Analysis |
| Data for Saturday, June 10, 2000 | |
|
PA 2000 IE -- Belmont Stakes Analysis |
| Data for Saturday, June 10, 2000 | |
Belmont Stakes 2000
RAC90610.BEL DIST= 10 f CLASS=GST PROGR NUM/NAME RS Q ODDS BL1 BL2 BL3 T1 T2 T3 TT LF DSL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (5)APTITUDE P 2 2.8 5.46 0.00 0.00 48.3 97.3 124.1 53.82 51.27 35 (4)UNSHADED S 0 8.1 5.53 4.06 3.47 48.3 98.1 124.8 52.95 50.52 14 (2)POSTPONED P 3 8.8 11.05 14.87 3.52 49.4 100.3 124.8 51.85 55.05 14 (6)GLOBALIZE E/P6 11.7 0.00 1.56 4.46 47.2 97.6 124.9 52.32 49.20 14 (9)WHEELAWAY P 3 16.2 7.28 2.95 5.79 48.6 97.9 125.2 53.57 50.16 35 (8)IMPEACHMENT S 0 22.0 16.81 8.26 6.69 50.5 99.0 125.4 54.50 51.29 21 (11)TAHKODHA HIL P 3 25.7 6.40 6.79 6.87 48.4 98.7 125.4 52.56 50.26 14 (1)APPEARING NO S 2 110.3 10.04 12.42 10.61 49.2 99.8 126.2 52.15 51.39 27 (7)CURULE NA 5 294.2 7.00 0.34 12.79 48.6 97.4 126.6 54.08 46.75 35 (3)COMMENDABLE E/P4 294.2 0.16 0.66 15.76 47.2 97.4 127.2 52.54 45.88 35 (10)HUGH HEFNER E 8 294.2 4.23 6.58 44.43 48.0 98.6 132.9 52.15 39.26 21
(For An Explanation Of The Rankings Used Here, Consult The PA 2000 User's
Guide)
One technical note before I begin. My program can only handicap races up to 10
furlongs (1 1/4 miles),
therefore, I had to run the Belmont as if it were a 10 furlong race. Pay no
attention to the projected final
times, as they will not be accurate. The margins are accurate, but the actual times
will be off for obvious
reasons.
Big surprise having Aptitude on top. If you don't like Aptitude, it turns into a
very competitive race, as you
can plainly see by the fact that the horses I rate as my 2nd through 7th picks are all
within 3.4 lengths of each
other at the projected finish.
Not a heck of a lot of early speed here. The three most likely to strike out to the
front early are Globalize, Commendable,
and of course Hugh Hefner. Again, I'm not going to even bother talking about Hugh
Hefner at all, again for
what I hope are obvious reasons. I wouldn't look for a quick pace up front, although
you can never rule out
stupidity generating some sort of speed duel early on.
The lack of a lot of early pace may be a big disadvantage for the big time closers like
Appearing Now, Impeachment, and
Postponed. Postponed is interesting because he comes up with by far the biggest
final fraction (LF) number of any horse
in the field with 55.05. That's either an aberration, or it means he'll be motoring
down the stretch. If he's able to stay in
touch early on, he could be extremely dangerous.
But, the horse they all have to beat is Aptitude. His final time projection is 4
lengths better then the rest of this field,
and that should be an honest assessment. If you look at this field objectively, and
ignore the fact that Aptitude is still
eligible for a non-winners of one other than, there is just no way you can look past this
son of A.P. Indy out of a
Northern Dancer mare.
The biggest plus I see in Aptitude, besides his obviously superior final time projection,
is his LF rating. It's fourth best
in the field, but unlike those other 3 with superior final fraction ratings, I feel
that Aptitude will stick closest of all
to the early pace. Now, I know many of you think that's nuts, and that Aptitude is
almost as big a closer as Impeachment,
but my figures say he's not. In fact, Aptitude was running ahead of Fusaichi Pegasus
during much of the early running
of the Kentucky Derby. Who would have thought that scenario possible? I have a
feeling Bobby Frankel is going to
instruct Solis to not let Aptitude fall too far back off the early pace. The numbers
say he should be in the 2nd or 3rd
flight of horses. If this is true, he should be able to hold off the late charge of
the stone-dead closers in the stretch
The odds will probably prevent a win bet on Aptitude, and I don't have enough confidence
in any of the other
runners to recommend breaking my usual wagering rules. Plus, I doubt seriously if
you are going to get much above
8-1 on Unshaded and Postponed anyway to warrant a bet. Good luck in whatever your
play turns out to be. Me, I'm
probably just going to sit back and enjoy my 13th straight Belmont Stakes in person.