Against the Public NCAA Football Picks

[hugh]

Same deal as the NFL. Going against the big public favorites. Always will get a few points betting ATP which over the long run makes for a profitable season. Will post my plays and results each week.

[hugh]

9/8
Kent +7
Idaho +17 $$$$$
Wake Forest +10.5
Army +6.5
UCLA +5 $$$$$$
Memphis +23
Oregon State +6.5
(Strange line move and game with Ok State/ vs.Arizona... 87% of the bets are on Oklahoma State but the line has from +13.5 to +10.5)
Let's do This.

[hugh]

9/8 Smart money plays... The Smart Money strategy is triggered whenever the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages.
Smart Money Plays:
Missouri +2
Central Mich +19.5
Oregon State +6.5
Arizona +10.5
Western Kentucky +37.5

With these and the Against the Public picks there are alot of games to choose from. I'm not going to play all of these, but if I do decide to play a game that I'm watching I'll be on the right side.

[hugh]

Originally Posted by hugh

9/8
Kent +7
Idaho +17 $$$$$ win
Wake Forest +10.5 straight up win
Army +6.5
UCLA +5 $$$$$$ straight up win
Memphis +23 win
Oregon State +6.5 straight up win
(Strange line move and game with Ok State/ vs.Arizona... 87% of the bets are on Oklahoma State but the line has from +13.5 to +10.5) straight up win
Let's do This.

WEEK TWO (one) agianst the public totals.... 6-2

Smart Money Plays NCAA Pigskin
Missouri +2
Central Mich +19.5
Oregon State +6.5 win
Arizona +10.5 straight up win
Western Kentucky +37.5 win
Smart Money Plays Results 3-2

LET'S KEEP IT GOING!!!

[hugh]

SCHOOL (plus) POINTS PUBLIC % (on opposing team)
BC +2.5 76%
Army 3 94%
SMU 13 84%
Pitt 10 87%
Stanford 7.5 83%
Cal 17 81%
Utah 4.5 80%
Miami (OH) 20.5 87%
Notre Dame 6 74%
Houston 17 83%
N. Texas 28.5 90%
W. Kentucky 7 79%

Most of the time betting on teams like this hurts. It's supposed to. These are the teams that will burn 80% of the betting public and make the papers the next day.
My early picks: Stanford, Utah, Notre Dame, Houston

[hugh]

Big time Leans. I always like doing these against the public picks on nationally televised games. Here are a couple ATP picks I really dig.
Cal +17
Miami (OH) +21 (on nbcsn)
Navy +5.5
Arkansas +21
For all you west coasters who get the PAc-12 network I see no problem taking Houston +17 against UCLA. Bruins have a freshman quarterback who may cool off a bit. Everybody and his brother will be on UCLA. The BIGGEST play of the week for me.

I would throw in Stanford +8 but I just hated the way they played against San Jose state. So a no play for me.
Also Notre Dame +6 is a no go based on the amount of late public money that always hits.
Good luck everyone.

[hugh]

9/15 official NCAA Football Picks (all dogs so we might get more points as game time draws near)
CAL +17
Stanford +9
Miami (OH) +21 (.5)
Houston +17

[hugh]

Totals thus far: 8-4
Only play this week. Auburn +20.5 at LSU. Big game on TV. Auburn covers EASY in a tight game.

[hugh]

Going to add one play this week:
Colorado +20 (vs. Washington State)

[hugh]

Two Wins in two plays. YTD Record is 10-4 against the Spread.

[hugh]

All Posted HERE for free.
Official Picks this week:
1)Got to take Wash +6.5 on the national stage. Official pick but only a 1/2 unit.
2)Baylor +12 .... Official Pick.... only 28% on them. I like the story with this bears team.. Upset watch (a small play on money line).
3)Iowa -7 ..... Official .. 23% betting public on the hawkeyes
4)Boston College +9 .... 15% of the public? Play of the Week.
5)Kentucky +20.5 ... taking only 16% of all bets.... Pound this one
6)Miss +31 (took this line a few days ago. 3/4 of all bettors on the Tide.
7)Washington State +30.5 ... only 21% on state. This is a good team. A very solid play. (I say if you're up after plays 1-6... role your money into the late game and wash state +30.5)

Bookies stay in business. Most bettors wind up broke. Be the bookie this weekend and play these. Cheers everyone.

[hugh]

I am going to lock in these plays right now/ here at the current lines.
YTD 15-6
Plays for This week:
Looks like we get to play a couple favorites this week. Followers of this thread may not be accustomed to doing so. But the opportunity has surfaced.
Navy +10
Pen State -3
Stanford -10
Texas -6.5
Georgia Tech +10
These are official plays and are all big games on the national stage.
Leans (but no official plays: utah +14 South Carolina -2 NC State +14

[hugh]

Getting rid of the favorites that I previously posted. A flood of public money has come in on Penn St. and Stanford. Texas is the only play that sort of works with my betting style, but at 36% of public money it just doesn't fit well enough.
So 2 Plays for Saturday:
Navy +10 (locked the line in earlier but still should cover with +8).... Navy doesn't score very much but I liked the way they defended San Jose State last week. With a little bit on offense they should be able to handle Air Force easily. Looking for a straight up win.
Georgia Tech +10.5 .... Playing Clemson. Should be an evenly matched up and down game. 10 points seems enough in this spot against a heavily backed Tigers team. Close to 80% are on Clemson this week.
:T hmbUp:

[hugh]

16-7 on the Season.
Early Looks and Leans for next Week:
1) Colorado +22.5 :Thursday Game on National TV. 7 out of 10 bettors are on the Sun Devils. 22.5 seems like enough for Colorado in this situation.
2) Missouri +21: Maybe a small play here. All season long the Tide has been pounded by the public but are only 2-3 ATS. Mizz might continue Alabama's futility against the spread. 86% of all spread wagers are on Alabama.
3)BYU -2.5: An obvious Trap here and maybe the play of the week. BYU brings a quality team against O-state, but the public is smitten with the other side. Only 18% are on the home team BYU.
4)Texas Tech +3.5: Smart money is all over this game. Only 9% of all money coming in is on Tech but the line just jumped from +4.5 to +3.5. Pound this game and count your money. Play of the Week potential.
5)LSU -2.5 ... Doesn't fit in with my system but I just like this game. Maybe for a 1/4 unit.

These are my early thoughts. Let's do it again!

[rastajenk]

When you say X % of the bets are on one team or the other, where does that come from?