Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion
User Name
Password

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 06-23-2012, 12:02 PM   #46
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 6,765
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve R
Or possibly none of those. Moonlight Cloud is a Group 1 winner in France and in top form coming off a facile Group 3 win three weeks ago giving weight to the field. She is rated 10 pounds below Black Caviar in 2012. That translates to three to four lengths at 6f. Maybe Black Caviar wasn't going to win by that far but she was clear near the end never having been touched by the whip when Nolan eased her. In a drive I believe she could have easily won by a couple of lengths. Tom Kerr of the Racing Post wrote "...she was heading for an easy victory after powering a length clear of front-runner Soul." The soft going may have played a role as she had never run on anything other than good or good to soft, but I don't think the travel, losing a step or what she defeated in Australia had anything to do with it. This was nearly a Shoemaker/Gallant Man Kentucky Derby moment but fortunately Nolan woke up at the last instant.


I think the rider made the finish unnecessarily close, but I don't think she was going to win by open lengths no matter what he did.

I don't have the handicapping sophistication to judge horses from England/Australia to know whether she ran sub par (for whatever reason) or whether that was the best she's got. But I sense this was not at her best because I assume Timeform has at least a decent line on cross border racing and her initial Timeform rating for today has already been estimated at way below her Aussie form.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper : 06-23-2012 at 12:04 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 12:04 PM   #47
forced89
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 264
vCash: 400
I had Moonlight Cloud $20 win; $40 place. I made a few bucks but it is better for racing that I lost. I would almost have felt guilty winning!!
forced89 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 12:14 PM   #48
Steve R
Registered User
 
Steve R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Costa Rica
Posts: 1,064
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
Nonsense. Nolan's error cost her a neck to half-length, nowhere near a couple of lengths.

Blah, blah, blah.
Steve R is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 12:23 PM   #49
Steve R
Registered User
 
Steve R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Costa Rica
Posts: 1,064
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I think the rider made the finish unnecessarily close, but I don't think she was going to win by open lengths no matter what he did.

I don't have the handicapping sophistication to judge horses from England/Australia to know whether she ran sub par (for whatever reason) or whether that was the best she's got. But I sense this was not at her best because I assume Timeform has at least a decent line on cross border racing and her initial Timeform rating for today has already been estimated at way below her Aussie form.

Who estimated that? This is from the Sydney Morning Herald, although it seems a stretch to me.

"Black Caviar scored the narrowest but sweetest win in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last night.

Luke Nolen gave the nation a heart attack when he tried to give her an easier time in the last 100 metres. As his rivals rode out with the whip, Nolen appeared to sit up with 75 metres.

It was only in the last couple of strides he realised the unbeaten mare could get beaten and pushed hard to hold off French second favourite Moonlight Cloud and Restiadargent...

Timeform is expected to lift Black Caviar to 137 or 138 making her the highest rated mare in history after the win surpassing Allez France, the French champion of the 1970s, and England's great sprinter of the 1980s, Habibti..."
Steve R is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 12:25 PM   #50
turninforhome10
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 2,517
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Not many horses are still 100% at age 6 after 20+ starts. Most tend to wear down as they age and accumulate tough races.

She had a great career and went out demonstrating her class.

If this is her last race, it reminds me a bit of how Personal Ensign went out. On a track that was not prefered and all game to the wire.
Nolen would probably have to seek asylum in GB if she loses by a nose. She goes back to AUS a national treasure. Thanks for the memories, your a grand girl.
turninforhome10 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 12:32 PM   #51
Shelby
Registered User
 
Shelby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Kansas
Posts: 1,678
vCash: 400
Ray Paulick ‏@raypaulick Did #BlackCaviar rider Luke Nolen misjudge finish? Tells @TVG "I knew where it was .....I tried to let her coast and she did stop."
Shelby is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 12:37 PM   #52
OntheRail
Registered User
 
OntheRail's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,013
vCash: 400
Damnit I missed the race cause internet drop and connection could not be found . I'm happy she won and hope she's fine. Anyone have the replay or will I have to wait till tomorrow to see her run?
OntheRail is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 01:06 PM   #53
affirmedny
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 592
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by OntheRail
Damnit I missed the race cause internet drop and connection could not be found . I'm happy she won and hope she's fine. Anyone have the replay or will I have to wait till tomorrow to see her run?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjSOqlEs6qo
affirmedny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 01:18 PM   #54
OntheRail
Registered User
 
OntheRail's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,013
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by affirmedny

...


Thanks
OntheRail is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 01:28 PM   #55
Steve R
Registered User
 
Steve R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Costa Rica
Posts: 1,064
vCash: 400
When considering Black Caviar's performance, recall that Gallant Man was many pounds superior to Iron Liege.
Steve R is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 01:43 PM   #56
RXB
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 2,771
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve R
Who estimated that?


Timeform. The race is rated 123.

http://www.timeform.com/godolphin/g...23&racenumber=3
__________________
twitter.com/RoutesOnTurf
RXB is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 02:20 PM   #57
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 6,765
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve R
Who estimated that? This is from the Sydney Morning Herald, although it seems a stretch to me.

"Black Caviar scored the narrowest but sweetest win in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last night.

Luke Nolen gave the nation a heart attack when he tried to give her an easier time in the last 100 metres. As his rivals rode out with the whip, Nolen appeared to sit up with 75 metres.

It was only in the last couple of strides he realised the unbeaten mare could get beaten and pushed hard to hold off French second favourite Moonlight Cloud and Restiadargent...

Timeform is expected to lift Black Caviar to 137 or 138 making her the highest rated mare in history after the win surpassing Allez France, the French champion of the 1970s, and England's great sprinter of the 1980s, Habibti..."



I either saw a tweet or a small article somewhere that said the initial estimate was in the mid 120s and below her Aussie form.

Edit: I see it was rated 123 from the post prior to mine
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper : 06-23-2012 at 02:22 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 03:01 PM   #58
gm10
Registered User
 
gm10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ringkoebing
Posts: 4,282
vCash: 400
Black Caviar became the most traded horse in Betfair's 12 years after 12,605,730 was matched on her out of a race total of 13,202,092. She was sent off at 1.27 but hit a high of 1.98 in-running. (53 mins ago)
(racingpost)
gm10 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 03:08 PM   #59
gm10
Registered User
 
gm10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Ringkoebing
Posts: 4,282
vCash: 400
Sectional times for the Diamond Jubilee reveal Black Caviar ran a final furlong of 13.70s - the third slowest of any horse in the race and almost a full second slower than the furlong before (10.84s) ( 1 hour ago)
(racingpost.com)
gm10 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-23-2012, 03:45 PM   #60
Steve R
Registered User
 
Steve R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Costa Rica
Posts: 1,064
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by gm10
Sectional times for the Diamond Jubilee reveal Black Caviar ran a final furlong of 13.70s - the third slowest of any horse in the race and almost a full second slower than the furlong before (10.84s) ( 1 hour ago)
(racingpost.com)

Interesting. She was traveling at over 61 ft/sec in the next to the last furlong and just over 48 ft/sec in the final furlong. One newspaper reported that Nolen sat up and loosened his grip about 75 meters from the wire (~250 ft) at which point she began decelerating until he responded in the last three or four strides. At her previous rate of speed she would have covered those last 75 meters in a bit over four seconds. At her later rate of speed she would have covered them in just over 5 seconds. It's hard to believe that under normal circumstances in which she was ridden to the wire and not put in deceleration mode she couldn't have run two or three ticks faster than 5+ seconds in the last 75 meters. In addition, the force required to overcome the inertia of a 1250-pound horse being eased down in the last 250 feet is enormous . That 3-second differential between the final two furlongs is surely due to Nolen's miscue and it wouldn't be a stretch to think she could have won by at least a couple of lengths which wouldn't have been far off the difference between her rating and that of Moonlight Cloud.
Steve R is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:58 AM.



Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1999 - 2013 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed @ 1024x768 Resolution Or Higher