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Old 06-09-2012, 05:21 AM   #1
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Official PaceAdvantage.com Belmont Stakes Analysis

Paynter (5-2)
Dullahan (5-2)
Union Rags (9-1)
My Adonis (22-1)

Hey, what a difference a horse makes! With I'll Have Another out of the picture, this race suddenly becomes a lot more interesting in that two or three horses have very viable chances at winning.

First, I'll address the pace picture. I believe this race won't have a very quick pace, despite some of the analyses I've seen bandied about here on the board. I think the jockeys in this race are going to all try and use a wait and see approach, since there really aren't any confirmed front runners in this race with the exception of Unstoppable U, who has absolutely no shot at hitting the board (go to the windows now folks...lol).

With that in mind, deep closers should be at a disadvantage (Street Life, this means you). Your winner should come from mid-pack, and that's exactly where my co-top picks Dullahan and Paynter like to run from. Don't be fooled by some of Dullahan's PPs. The instances where he's come from way out of it have often been where he's gotten into a bit of trouble early (and that tends to happen a lot with this horse, unfortunately). But with this being a 12 furlong race on the large Belmont Park oval, perhaps he'll be more adept at avoiding problems this time around.

The value will most likely come in the form of Paynter of course, with Dullahan being the newly installed 9-5 morning line favorite. So that's where most of my play will be concentrated. Paynter is lightly raced and improving and will be ridden by a jockey that knows this track and this race. He doesn't need the lead and has actually shown the ability to run well from various pace positions.

Union Rags is poised to run the best race of his career in the Belmont Stakes. This horse returned to the races in good order in the Fountain of Youth and had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby. Some say he isn't as good as he was last year, but I think he's sitting on a big effort. Rags is getting a jock switch to John Velazquez and should be in perfect position when the real running begins.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 06-09-2012 at 05:23 AM.
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