Part 1

[thaskalos]

But first a disclaimer:

There are as many handicapping opinions as there are horseplayers, and these opinions often contradict one another. I don't want to keep on writing "in my opinion" everytime I address a particular handicapping topic...because it is tiresome to type, and even more tiresome to read. So I would like to clarify this here, right at the start:

What follows is strictly MY OPINION, even if I sometimes phrase it as absolute truth...for the sake of making for smooth and pleasant reading. There are no absolute truths in this game, and as soon as someone proposes one as such...another player is quick to dispute it. If you disagree with what I write here, that's perfectly fine -- it's what the game is all about -- and we can discuss these disagreements right here in this forum.

There are no "masters" in this game...there are only students...even if some don't know this yet.

It is very difficult to start writing about handicapping and betting without knowing who, and how advanced, your audience is. I have been around this site long enough to know that some brilliant handicappers call Paceadvantage their second home.

But I have also noticed an influx of new posters on our forum...along with requests for an explanation of the fundamentals that even the most advanced handicapping knowledge rests upon. What follows is my take on these "fundamentals"...

To the battle-scarred veterans of the betting wars out there, I apologize for wasting your time...but I promise you that a short review won't hurt.

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE HANDICAPPING GAME

Form

Races are won by sharp horses who are well suited to the conditions and circumstances of these races...so, in that aspect, we are ALL "form" handicappers; it's just that we can't all agree on the best way of determining this form.

To some players, "good form" means close-up finishes in one of the horse's last two races. If the horse has run lackluster efforts in its most recent starts, and it remains in the same class today...then the horse is considered to be "off-form", and a poor candidate to visit the track photographer.

It's a narrow-minded view, IMO...and one that leads to even bigger mistakes later on in the handicapping process. The circumstances of the race often conspire against certain horses, and causes them to run unimpressive-looking races through no fault of their own. How close a horse finishes to the winner at the wire often is a poor indicator of the horse's "true" form.

I readily admit that the win bettor can substantially narrow down his list of contenders in a race rather quickly...but the exotics bettor isn't so lucky. Since I am mainly a vertical exotics bettor myself, I cannot afford the luxury of eliminating horses at first glance...so I only eliminate the complete throwouts at the very beginning of the handicapping process.

A horse may look off-form at first glance, and yet, upon closer consideration, prove to be a candidate for one of the minor placings...and always at a good price.

Class

The class of a thoroughbred is a quality that is hard to define, although it's unmistakeable when seen...and yet, some of the most astute handicappers in the game refuse to accept that it even exists as a handicapping factor.

"Class has nothing to do with it!", declares the inimitable Andy Beyer...and the late Dick Mitchell was in agreement with the sentiment.

On the other side of the fence...equally prominent handicappers like James Quinn and Mark Cramer flatly disagree.

In his book "FORM CYCLES", Mark Cramer suggests that there is a hierarchy that exists within animal groups of the same type...and that the "higher" members of this hierarchy often impose their will over the rest of the group, AT A GLANCE!

As proof, he tells the story of an event that he himself witnessed when he spent time at a pig farm.

He writes that one of the pigs, had so intimidated the others in the pen, that none of the other pigs would even begin to eat their food until this "top" pig had finished eating hers (it was a female).

Cramer goes on to say that people who don't believe animals are capable of "intimidating" one another by their physical presence, "obviously haven't spent any time at a farm."

In my own handicapping -- and with apologies to Beyer and Mitchell -- I have found that class is a very important factor indeed. Horses fail to repeat their sharp efforts when they are raised in class for their subsequent start...even when the class rise appears insignificant at first sight. And it works equally well in reverse.

So aware have I become of the class factor, that I am very reluctant to rate a horse -- speed or pace-wise -- off of a "cheaper" race than the one it is asked to compete in presently.

Why do these "fast" horses fail to win so often when they go up in class...eventhough their class and pace figures say that they should be able to? Is it horse intimidation...or is it trainer intent?

Are the "dynamics" of these "classier" races so much different than their slightly cheaper counterparts?

Or could it be that the trainers don't THINK their horses are capable of winning at the higher levels, so they decide to "save" them for the next, more winnable spot?

I don't know the answer to this question...but I do know this:

Class is a very important handicapping factor...even if it only exists in the trainer's mind.


I think it's time for me to stop for today...and I promise to resume our discussion tomorrow.

As I've said before, comments of all types are welcomed...even if they are critical in nature.

As my friend DeltaLover likes to say..."only through disagreeing can real progress be made."

Ciao for now...

[turninforhome10]

This video regarding EthoGrade is very informative and addresses herd mentality.
Start with Mr Thomas' discussion video then listen to hs talks with John Sherrriefs and Baffert. Completely changed the way I grade horses before the races. Very informative for both horse people and bettors.
http://www.youtube.com/user/KerryMThomas/feed

[shouldacoulda]

Great start Thaskalos. Couldn't agree more about the class issue. Too many times I have seen a horse run at a higher level and get poor pace/speed figures because he either wasn't pushed or couldn't compete at that level. They drop him/her back down and it's an upset long shot.

Thanks for the video turninforhome10.
Thought I would post one also. It's James Quinn talking about age factors but he relates it to class. Thought it might help anyone new to the horse game.

Handicapping and the age factor

Dave Schwartz also has a great series of videos on his website.

[jdhanover]

Interesting video...thx!

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

This video regarding EthoGrade is very informative and addresses herd mentality.
Start with Mr Thomas' discussion video then listen to hs talks with John Sherrriefs and Baffert. Completely changed the way I grade horses before the races. Very informative for both horse people and bettors.
http://www.youtube.com/user/KerryMThomas/feed

Thaskalos,
One last note and I will sit down and be quiet. After watching the video regarding Mr Thomas' grading system and his discussion with Baffert, just wanted to add this neat little video of horses lining up to go to dinner. Must be thirty horses all coming through a small gate and I am amazed at they keep the order. Watch the horses as they stack up at the gate, as they file by and notice their personalities and how they space each other out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOHEb...eature=related
For those who are weak at judging horseflesh and behavior, it certainly could not hurt your game. And for those of you that have horses, mental fitness is just as important as physical fitness. Having a horse that can handle the mental aspect of the game is not just important for performance, it is also a matter of safety. I got kicked with both barrels from a shod horse right in the ribs shattering 5 and puncturing a lung all because the horse was so scared of the wind he wheeled on me and lost his mind. Ironically, the horse stood right next to me after words probably being scared to be alone in the wind.
Teaching the young horse is key. With 2yo season getting ready to get rolling, it would not hurt a player to know where the horse is coming from (training center, farm etc) and a little help with body language could be two factors that could prove very profitable.
The floor is all yours Thanks
Kirk

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by turninforhome10

Thaskalos,
One last note and I will sit down and be quiet. After watching the video regarding Mr Thomas' grading system and his discussion with Baffert, just wanted to add this neat little video of horses lining up to go to dinner. Must be thirty horses all coming through a small gate and I am amazed at they keep the order. Watch the horses as they stack up at the gate, as they file by and notice their personalities and how they space each other out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOHEb...eature=related
For those who are weak at judging horseflesh and behavior, it certainly could not hurt your game. And for those of you that have horses, mental fitness is just as important as physical fitness. Having a horse that can handle the mental aspect of the game is not important is also a matter of safety. I got kicked with both barrels from a shod horse right in the ribs shattering 5 and puncturing a lung all because the horse was so scared of the wind he wheeled on me and lost his mind. Ironically, the horse stood right next to me after words probably being scared to be alone in the wind.
Teaching the young horse is key. With 2yo season getting ready to get rolling, it would not hurt a player to know where the horse is coming from (training center, farm etc) and a little help with body language could be two factors that could prove very profitable.
The floor is all yours Thanks
Kirk

I don't want the floor to be "all mine", my friend...

The worst thing that can happen, as far as I am concerned, is for this discussion to turn into a monologue.

I started this for one reason...and one reason only.

The hope that I would be able to persuade the many intelligent minds here to join our discussion...so we could increase the handicapping and betting-related content of this site.

I encourage the exchange of ideas...even if they turn into the occasional argument.

Why should the off-topic guys have all the fun?

[duncan04]

So far so good. Looking forward to more!

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't want the floor to be "all mine", my friend...

The worst thing that can happen, as far as I am concerned, is for this discussion to turn into a monologue.

I started this for one reason...and one reason only.

The hope that I would be able to persuade the many intelligent minds here to join our discussion...so we could increase the handicapping and betting-related content of this site.

I encourage the exchange of ideas...even if they turn into the occasional argument.

Why should the off-topic guys have all the fun?

I guess my best input is with regards to pedigree, conditions, and equipment.
I am a good handicapper but a horrible bettor. Having worked on both farms foaling babies and later breaking them and working at the track as an assistant trainer, I know quality flesh and can pick it out of a herd but to find a way for to make it profitable is the hurdle. I have made 100x the amount winning purses than I feel I will ever win handicapping. Confidence is a probably the most fragile aspect of a players game. It is the hardest thing to keep in the objective. If you could help us with this, I know I would appreciate it.
Kirk

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by shouldacoulda

Great start Thaskalos. Couldn't agree more about the class issue. Too many times I have seen a horse run at a higher level and get poor pace/speed figures because he either wasn't pushed or couldn't compete at that level. They drop him/her back down and it's an upset long shot.

.

That works both ways.

First of all I believe that there is a heirachy among herd animals.

However, the inverse of what is said above about lower class horses in higher conditions also happens.
For example, a high class Graded Stakes horse is sometimes put in Allowance race where he/she is clearly the best from a class perspective.
However, the trainer may be using the Allowance race for a tune-up for a Graded race that is coming up. The jockey will win the race if the opportunity presents itself. But, often times he won't try to get maximum effort out of the horse just for the sake of winning this tune-up.
As a result, some Graded Stakes horses can be over-bet by the public in Allowance races as total commitment to the win may not be present.
Often the high class animal will be made the favorite. Yet in today's condition it may be a vulnerable or false favorite, not due to lack of ability, but due to other future considerations.
You can save a lot of money knowing when and when not to take the bait.

The handicapper always has to ask:
"What is this horse doing in this race and why is it here?"

[turninforhome10]

"As a result, some Graded Stakes horses can be over-bet by the public in Allowance races as total commitment to the win may not be present.
Often the high class animal will be made the favorite. Yet in today's condition it may be a vulnerable or false favorite, not due to lack of ability, but due to other future considerations".

Followed QH futurity races and this is a nice angle. As Harness taught me pace handicapping, QH Futurity trials taught me trainers intent.
I was working in the test barn at Prairie Meadows (and really scared to death as I bluffed my horse experience because my lab skills were so good) when I was first exposed to the American running Quarter Horse. Man what a cool animal, I digress.
I met a stud colt by a son of Dash for Cash out of Three Bars mare. I heard from an old cutting horse guy that Three Bars mares were the deal and always threw a very smart baby and a horse that could be used for a bunch of different disciplines, fast and sound.
I was not supposed to be betting, but for the sake of the story I confess. I saw the horse name and pedigree on the racing form for the trials and had thought I had seen him on track and made a mental note. I instructed my buddy in the track kitchen to layoff $30 win bets in small increments every 3 mins from the open as long as the odds were better than 8\5 I was working in the test barn so I set it up that I would be able to take his sample after the race. All I could do was watch him on the TV in the test barn and watched with much anticipation.
He breaks like a shot and goes out and easy from the 6 hole in a 10 horse field
He ding dongs for the lead and gets beat a neck. I was sick. And now I get to spend the next 20 mins trying to put a stick with a bag by his manhood and talk him into peeing all while trying to figure out how I was going to absorb this hit.I was a starving college student and my first real big drop over 100 dollars.

The horse arrived at the test barn barely blowing, a little kidney sweat and just as cool a customer as I have enjoyed spending time with.. I was scratching my head. Where did that equation go so horribly wrong . The horse cooled out in 10 mins after taking 3 or 4 small sips of water all the while dragging me around the walking ring. After all the testing was done the trainer thanked me for doing such a good job of cooling out the horse. I had to ask.

"What happened today, that horse should have crushed that other horse" naively I asked

"5th fastest qualifier and imagine what he'll do when we let him run"

Smiling and walking confidently the shaggy bearded ZZ top wannabe trainer walks with his horse out of the test barn

When the horse (I can't for the life of me remember the horse but do remember the crazy Johnston guy that trained him) won the Futurity by 1 1/2 lengths and paid 5\2, I was more than happy as the trainer requested me to take care of the horse in the test barn. All I could do was smile walking him around the ring to cool him out, again barely blowing.
I had instructed my kitchen guy to lay off 40 win bets every 3 mins from open to 2 mins as long as the odds were 8\5 or better and I had cut up the exacta, the tri, the double and gave the numbers to my brother to bet. All in.

"How much you make on my horse today" Johnston asks me
I really did not know what to say, I had cleaned up scoring the biggest hit of my fledgling handicapping career $892.50.
"Anything helps a poor college student" "Thanks a lot"

I was in all actuality getting ready to finish college and the winnings that day went a long way.

Does the horse need to win TODAY?

[Robert Goren]

Trainer intent is generally only a problem in higher class races. In bottom claimers (with possible exception a first start after a layoff) the trainer is always trying to win because they are sure the horse will even be able to run another race. They can't let any opportunity pass them by. At least that's the way I look at.

[shouldacoulda]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

That works both ways.

First of all I believe that there is a heirachy among herd animals.

However, the inverse of what is said above about lower class horses in higher conditions also happens.
For example, a high class Graded Stakes horse is sometimes put in Allowance race where he/she is clearly the best from a class perspective.
However, the trainer may be using the Allowance race for a tune-up for a Graded race that is coming up. The jockey will win the race if the opportunity presents itself. But, often times he won't try to get maximum effort out of the horse just for the sake of winning this tune-up.
As a result, some Graded Stakes horses can be over-bet by the public in Allowance races as total commitment to the win may not be present.
Often the high class animal will be made the favorite. Yet in today's condition it may be a vulnerable or false favorite, not due to lack of ability, but due to other future considerations.
You can save a lot of money knowing when and when not to take the bait.

The handicapper always has to ask:
"What is this horse doing in this race and why is it here?"

Great point. I tend to avoid those types of races. Last time I bet against a horse from graded stakes after a long layoff (around a year) he won by 15-20 lengths at 3-5. I don't think he felt the whip once. I find the problem with that type of play is as you said, they tend to be over bet but the unpredictability factor makes me shy away.

In regards to your question above, I want to relay a nice hit I made a couple of years ago. It was the spring of 2010. The track was Hollywood. The horse was the A Day with Desi or Sunshine Desi (if I remember correctly). The horse had run a bunch of low level claimers at I believe Evangeline and Remington. He had one race at around 12K claimer at Turf Paradise where he did nothing like all his previous races. Two weeks later he is at Hollywood running in a 40K allowance. My first reaction was "what is this horse doing in this race"? Jockey win % zero. Trainer win % zero. The two co-favorites both 3rd off a layoff with back to back wins by a diminishing margin. Doubtful they would repeat again. I put 2$ to win on him and nothing more. He went off at 71-1 and wired the field. Paid $144.00 to win. The horse, trainer, and jockey showed NOTHING to imply they had a chance. It was a perfect set up. Better to be lucky than good, it was little more than a stab. I just wish my $2.00 was $20.00.

[IMG]Hollywood 5 6 2010 R4[/IMG]
(I don't redboard)

[lamboguy]

every level of racing is treated the exact same way. when you start training horses as babies they go out in sets. if they can't keep up with "the faster horses" they start going with the slower ones. it makes no sense in the world to have a horse train with horses that he is going to be further away than 3 lengths. if you keep doing that the horse will lose all confidence and never want to run fast. so when you eventually bring him down to his proper level, he will often be chicken.

when a horse finally runs in a race, he has to run at the level where he can be competitive, if you run him to many times at the wrong level you will shatter his confidence. owners and trainers are sometimes afraid that if they run their horse in the right spot the horse will get claimed. if you run in claiming races and don't think that someone might claim your horse, you are running in the wrong spot.

to bring this perspective to handicapping, if you are going to play a maiden race that has first time starters in it, you might want to try to figure out which horses trained with the horses in the morning. in today's world that is not to tough to figure out because of the large training operations. those trainers will for example have 5 horses go out at once. sometimes one or more of the horses will have already run in a race, you can now see how that horse ran in the race. if he ran good you might want to pay attention to the horse that's in today's race, if he ran bad, you might not want to consider him.

as far as horses with form goes, although its nice to look at the history of the horse for 5 race lines, the most important line is usually his last line. you should play close attention the horses in that last race line to figure out if they were above or below par for that particular race. horses that come out of above par races tend to run better than the ones that come out of below par races. from there you must always consider the price of the horse to evaluate the proper risk reward factor's. you might want to pay attention to the running styles of all the horses in the race to try to figure out how many are going to try for the lead. if there are 4 horses that look to be battling each other for the top spot, odds of 2-1 might not be worth the wager, if there are only 2, your horse might warrant the wager.

good luck

[raybo]

Class

I, I, I ..... I have been criticized by my frequent use of "I" in some of my posts, but "I" just means my own experience, or, how I see something, or, what I do. So, I'm not meaning to reflect that my way is the only way.

That said, forgive the "I"s.

I have in the past stated that I believe there is a definite "herd mentality" that can determine which horse wins, or contests a winner. I still firmly believe this to be true.

On the other hand, I have also stated that pace, and the way horses "handle" that pace, determines the class of a horse, not "man made class levels". The 2 statements are really saying the same thing.

My take on class, is that a high "class" horse doesn't care what the pace is, because he/she is so confident in it's rank in the "herd" that they know, in the end, all others in the herd will succumb to their leaderhip. That's why a horse like Mine That Bird can run from behind, in a 20 horse field, without feeling that things are getting out of control up front, regarding his distance from the leaders, and think that he must close that gap prematurely. It doesn't matter that the jockey is forcing the horse to run so far back or not, the horse still retains it's confidence that it can overcome anything facing it.

When a horse like this decides, or it's jockey decides, it's time to assert it's dominance and joins the herd, all it takes is to "look a horse in the eye" and that particular "battle" is won, mentally.

I often relate this to a joke we truck drivers had (I drove a semi over the road for a few years after losing a high paying job to corporate downsizing):

Question: What's the difference between a "big truck" (a semi) and a "large car" (a semi with a large engine)?

Answer: A "big truck" does what it can, a "large car" does what it wants.

[Blenheim]

A good and fine beginning.
~
I think we may have missed a step. Before I get to class and condition (form) I try to find a race I can beat, finding the beatable race. IMO, finding the beatable race is the crux of the handicapping process. Some races offer a better chance to win and once I find that race, I then proceed to the conditions of eligibility. In most races the conditions of eligibility point to the best horse. And "In a truly run race a decided class advantage tells the tale. A genuinely superior horse wins if in shape to do so, regardless of running style." (Ainslie)

Often a class horse is entered in a race against inferior types coming off a long layoff, only showing works. Here is an extreme example. On March 18, just a few days ago, Believe in A.P., a G2 type was entered in an OC 25k/N1X. She hadn't raced for eight months and was coming into that race off six works. The horse won in a hand ride not because she was at peak form, rather her condition was sufficient to beat the competition and she was the class of the race. No doubt the outcome would have been different were she entered in against dead fit G2 types. Once again, it was a beatable race and the conditions pointed to the best horse.

As far as horses with form goes, although its nice to look at the history of the horse for 5 race lines, the most important line is usually his last line. you should play close attention the horses in that last race line to figure out if they were above or below par for that particular race. horses that come out of above par races tend to run better than the ones that come out of below par races. from there you must always consider the price of the horse to evaluate the proper risk reward factor's.

I would respectfully disagree with what Mr. Lamboguy has written. The last race can be misleading. If horse A in his last race runs a speed figure of 101 and in his previous four races show figures of 87,83, 84, 84, I discount the last race and rely on the sequence of best performances. The last race can be misleading . . . maybe the horse got an easy lead on a speed bias, maybe ran against inferior stock, maybe lasix w/blinkers for the first time or any number of reasons. Gotta be careful judging a horse on any single performance. However, I do agree with Mr. Lamboguy when he writes, "horses that come out of above par races tend to run better than the ones that come out of below par races."