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Old 12-06-2011, 10:19 AM   #1
andymays
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Exchange Wagering: Betfair-TVG submission to the California Horse Racing Board

If you're interested in the proposal made by Betfair for California read the PDF.
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File Type: pdf ExchangeWageringinCA-TVG-BetfairSubmission (2).pdf (760.9 KB, 46 views)
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Old 12-06-2011, 11:03 AM   #2
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http://blog.horseplayersassociation....rate-gets.html

Horse Racing's Churn Rate Gets Annihilated
For as long as we all can remember, horse racing's publicized churn rate (the number of times you as a player, collectively, roll over your bankroll, explained in detail here) was 7. If everyone at the track had $100,000 in their pockets, chances are handle would have been somewhere around $700,000.

Two major variables that go into the churn rate, as the article alludes are:
Takeout rate - the higher the takeout, the lower the churn
Cashable bets - WPS pools, with no exotics would have high churn because we'd have many winners rebetting, a card with pick 6's and nothing else would have almost zero churn, because we have one or two winners, who probably go home to celebrate after they win.
TVG, while submitting their application for exchange wagering in California, provided us with a shocking statistic: The estimated churn rate of 2011 TVG customers is not seven, but four.

Today, at a churn rate of four, that handle in our example has plummeted to $400,000.

For the whole story click on the link! http://blog.horseplayersassociation....rate-gets.html
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Old 12-06-2011, 01:06 PM   #3
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I think this helps as well:

http://blog.horseplayersassociation....rn-anyway.html
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Old 12-06-2011, 01:17 PM   #4
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TVG is an ADW isn't it?

how do they calculate a churn rate>



if I had $500 in my account with them and placed zero bets this week on their 200+ race cards available, what would be my churn rate?
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Old 12-06-2011, 01:24 PM   #5
redshift1
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For the period you are not betting your churn rate is zero.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Churn_rate
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:05 PM   #6
satrabyk
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Does this mean exchange wagering will be offered on/for California tracks/residents only ? If so, liquidity will most likely be very low. Betfair is available to Canadians and yet hardly anyone bets there ????

The 10% commission rate is a joke. I know Canadians that have given up on Betfair and they were only paying 3->5 % - suspicious betting patterns. I quit betting there when I heard from reliable sources that some U.S. trainers are making more money on Betfair than on training!!!!!

Used to be good(more honest) years ago. Good Luck.
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:22 PM   #7
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Since you're not willing to name names satrabyk, here's a couple I've seen with unusual activity (not presuming anything, just saying usually these trainers will have horses every once in a while that trades unusually). When they had Cali racing, you always knew when a Carla Gaines horse was live, it traded very close to the tote price when it was good and at a huge discount when it wasn't. Also Jamie Ness does too, but more so in Tampa it seems (on Sat, he had a horse trading at .9-1 when it went off around 6-5, and won of course).

As for the 10%, I would still play on BF markets as it's still for the most part a better deal than the totes and the liquidity from Cali players would make good markets (assuming that they can play the same pools as us).
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:47 PM   #8
andymays
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satrabyk
Does this mean exchange wagering will be offered on/for California tracks/residents only ? If so, liquidity will most likely be very low. Betfair is available to Canadians and yet hardly anyone bets there ????

The 10% commission rate is a joke. I know Canadians that have given up on Betfair and they were only paying 3->5 % - suspicious betting patterns. I quit betting there when I heard from reliable sources that some U.S. trainers are making more money on Betfair than on training!!!!!

Used to be good(more honest) years ago. Good Luck.
It is for California Residents only.
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:56 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
http://blog.horseplayersassociation....rate-gets.html


TVG, while submitting their application for exchange wagering in California, provided us with a shocking statistic: The estimated churn rate of 2011 TVG customers is not seven, but four.

Today, at a churn rate of four, that handle in our example has plummeted to $400,000.

For the whole story click on the link! http://blog.horseplayersassociation....rate-gets.html
If I did business with TVG, I would deposit several times the amount that I normally bring to the track each day, so for me at least, that would explain the low churn.
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Old 12-06-2011, 03:22 PM   #10
satrabyk
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Thanx Andymays for reply.... do you know if it's going to be available for Cali tracks only ?


WOULDN"T IT BE BETTER IF TRACKS JUST REDUCE TAKEOUT TO 10 % - THEN THEY DON'T HAVE TO GIVE THOSE LEECHES ANYTHING ?????? Betfair and others will have to close down.... sell TVG and go back to ENGLAND !!!
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Old 12-06-2011, 03:24 PM   #11
andymays
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Originally Posted by satrabyk
Thanx Andymays for reply.... do you know if it's going to be available for Cali tracks only ?


WOULDN"T IT BE BETTER IF TRACKS JUST REDUCE TAKEOUT TO 10 % - THEN THEY DON'T HAVE TO GIVE THOSE LEECHES ANYTHING ?????? Betfair and others will have to close down.... sell TVG and go back to ENGLAND !!!
I believe so but I'm not positive. In todays environment Tracks can't lower the take to that rate. It would be hard to get them to make it 14% across the board.
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:12 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
If I did business with TVG, I would deposit several times the amount that I normally bring to the track each day, so for me at least, that would explain the low churn.
Churn rate doesn't take into account how long it takes you though, so the amount you deposit doesn't have much impact.

It's not saying, "you'll turn your bankroll over x number of times in y period of time".

It's saying, "you'll turn your bankroll over x number of times before it's gone".

For example, say you deposit $500 into your account and you bet $2,000 with a net loss of $500 leaving you with a balance of $0. Your churn rate is 4 because you bet a total of 4 times your original bankroll before it went to zero. If you deposited another $500 when your balance was down to $100 so at the end of the above period you still have $500, your churn rate would still be 4.
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:22 PM   #13
davew
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I think they must be talking about different things then

betting bank roll churn rate -> total bet before roll gone $500 roll bets $2000 volume before gone

Daily on track churn rate -> total bettors cash betting handle multiple of original cash bankroll?
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:31 PM   #14
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Betfair will agree to 10% commission??? Interesting to see reaction of racetrack officials of other tracks that have deals with Betfair (2-5%).

Also, if California markets are available to existing Betfarians who pay (2-5%) things can get interesting.
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:57 PM   #15
Judge Gallivan
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10% commission would be much more attractive to many Betfair players who pay from 2-5% but have to pay premium charges ranging from 20-60%.

I assume they won't be introducing premium charges for California Betfair.
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