Odds change explanation at Hollywood

[rwwupl]

This was concerning a race at Hollywood recently that the winner had an odds change while rounding the turn from 16-1 to 9-1 and created a fuss on the west coast.

Thanks to Mike Marten and the CHRB for this explanation.

http://www.chrb.ca.gov/advisories.htm (will be posted soon)

CHRB ADVISORY ON WAGERING REVIEW


SACRAMENTO, CA – The California Horse Racing Board has completed its review of wagering on the fifth race at Hollywood Park on April 24, 2011, and determined that all wagers were placed legally before the start of the race. The evidence is substantial and reaffirms that the wagering system in California is secure.

The CHRB received complaints about a late odds change on the winner of the fifth race, #9 Ninth Infantry, a horse that broke alertly and went on to win by more than three lengths. Because the displayed odds dropped from 16-1 down to 9-1 after the start of the race, some people suspected that a wager or wagers were placed after the start, commonly known as past posting. The CHRB has investigated similar complaints about other races over the years and has determined in every instance that all wagers were placed legally before the start of each race even though the infield totalizator board did not show the updated odds until after the start of the race.

The concern most commonly expressed in these instances is that “the money always comes in on the winner, never on the loser.” Furthermore, a common concern is that the late money “always seems to come in on a horse that breaks well,” indicating a belief by critics that cheaters observe the start before making their wagers. The CHRB review of the April 24 program at Hollywood Park addresses both of these concerns.

System logs and transaction reports show there were numerous large wagers placed on Ninth Infantry, including wagers of $252, $425, $1,030, and $5000 at various locations. All of those bets were placed before the start of the race – without exception – and most of them were reflected in the posted odds before the start. The $5,000 wager – most responsible for the drop in the odds – was made just three seconds before the start of the race. No wager made anywhere just three seconds before the race could have been processed and displayed in the odds before the start of the race. The $5,000 wager was made at a walk-up window at a Nevada location, meaning the bettor was issued a printed pari-mutuel ticket rather than a purely electronic transaction through a wagering account.

It is significant that the transaction logs for the Nevada location show that two other hardcopy $5,000 win wagers were placed at the same location on the two races that preceded the Ninth Infantry race. Both of those $5,000 wagers were losers. One was placed on #3 Steve’s Blue Sky, helping make her the favorite. This wager was placed 17 seconds before the start of the third race and was not reflected on the infield tote board until after the start. Significantly, Steve’s Blue Sky broke sixth in the field of eight and quickly dropped back to last. She wound up finishing seventh. During the early running of that race, the $5,000 wager showed up in the odds displays, helping to drop Steve’s Blue Sky from 5/2 to 9/5. The other $5,000 wager placed at the same location, also 17 seconds before the start of the race, was a win bet on #4 Nonrefundable in the fourth race. Nonrefundable broke alertly and dueled for the lead before finishing second. During the race, the $5,000 wager showed up in the odds displays, helping to drop Nonrefundable from 9/2 to 4-1.

The $5,000 win wager on Ninth Infantry, which was made three seconds before the start, was processed and then displayed on the infield tote board 17 seconds after the start. This was seven seconds slower than the industry standard of posting near-final odds 10 seconds after the start but nonetheless marked a significant improvement over the time it took to display such odds prior to 2007. In an effort to deal with the problem of late odds changes, the 2020 Committee, which is the industry’s technical committee meeting under the umbrella of the TRA, recommended in 2007 the adoption of a single 10-second forced odds cycle after the win pool is closed. Adoption by United Tote- and Sportech- (then Scientific Games) supported racetracks was immediate. AmTote-supported tracks adopted this practice over the following 24 months. The 10-seconds forced cycle, or ‘almost final’ is a summation of the host and all finals from guests that have been received within 10 seconds of stop betting for the win pool, and has been audited at levels of odds representing over 98% of the win pool.

In other words, shortly after the start, virtually all wagers are reflected on the infield tote board. Additional time elapses before television, online, and streaming video displays are updated. The CHRB and other regulators and industry groups are continuously working with the racetracks, racing networks, and other wagering outlets to speed up and improve the display of odds. In fact, TVG and HRTV are providing more timely odds updates now than just a few years ago. Additional improvements for all odds displays are anticipated in the near future.



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[Arena Nut]

I really wish they would close wagering with one minute to post and update the odds before the break. The odds dropping on a horse who breaks on top is happening way to often.

[JustRalph]

the fact that it wasn't electronic, makes me more suspicious.

Logs are text files...I think? ....anybody got a copy of notepad laying around on their desktop ?

[jamey1977]

Every time it's always some horse going from 7 to 1 to 3 to 1, during the race that wins. Give us proof of odds going from 12 to 1 to 6 to 1, during the race. then losing or - 14 to 1, to 8 to 1 during the race or as they say,before the betting closes. Every damn time the horse wins, it's always 12 to 1 to 7 to 1 during the race or as they say it. 9 seconds before the gates open. All I know is I hardly ever see big drops during the race and the horse loses. I mean from middle odds out. From 7 to 1 and up. We don't believe any of their nonsense that they are sprouting out.

[rwwupl]

I thought this was noteworthy... Could it be likely that all three bets were made by the same man?... if so, he was one for three.

rw

It is significant that the transaction logs for the Nevada location show that two other hardcopy $5,000 win wagers were placed at the same location on the two races that preceded the Ninth Infantry race. Both of those $5,000 wagers were losers. One was placed on #3 Steve’s Blue Sky, helping make her the favorite. This wager was placed 17 seconds before the start of the third race and was not reflected on the infield tote board until after the start. Significantly, Steve’s Blue Sky broke sixth in the field of eight and quickly dropped back to last. She wound up finishing seventh. During the early running of that race, the $5,000 wager showed up in the odds displays, helping to drop Steve’s Blue Sky from 5/2 to 9/5. The other $5,000 wager placed at the same location, also 17 seconds before the start of the race, was a win bet on #4 Nonrefundable in the fourth race. Nonrefundable broke alertly and dueled for the lead before finishing second. During the race, the $5,000 wager showed up in the odds displays, helping to drop Nonrefundable from 9/2 to 4-1.

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by Arena Nut

I really wish they would close wagering with one minute to post and update the odds before the break. The odds dropping on a horse who breaks on top is happening way to often.

How would that help? You are still betting before you know the final odds.

[ALL CIRCUITS GO]

by closing betting when called to load, it will at least remove the suspicion of late betting on the 'first to break', if the odds are updated at 10 seconds as the CHRB states. I think anything that takes away any hint of impropriety will be helpful to the longevity of the sport.

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by ALL CIRCUITS GO

by closing betting when called to load, it will at least remove the suspicion of late betting on the 'first to break', if the odds are updated at 10 seconds as the CHRB states. I think anything that takes away any hint of impropriety will be helpful to the longevity of the sport.

You know, they did try that (at Churchill, I think) a few years ago. Everyone complained -- they wanted to see how the horses were acting loading in the gate or something -- and they changed it back. (Plus it costs them money the earlier the cut-off.)

[DJofSD]

If the proponents of closing the betting period before the gates open are so concerned about things, why don't you find an old fashion on-track bookmaker that will give you fixed odds?

The real solution to the perception of past posting is to update the entire tote system, top to bottom. Will it be cheap? No. But if you want to have your cake and eat it to, it has to be done.

Even a system update to the same thing that was in place on Wall Street, oh, let's say, 25 years ago, would still be decades more current than what is in place now.

[ALL CIRCUITS GO]

costs them money? so they get less churn on the race, but its not like I'm gonna take the money and go home with it.

there needs (IMHO) to be industry wide standards adopted. so that all bettors, tracks and horsepeople know what to expect.

maybe it can start with loading and then move to other (off topic alert) issues like medicines?

[BillW]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

The real solution to the perception of past posting is to update the entire tote system, top to bottom. Will it be cheap? No. But if you want to have your cake and eat it to, it has to be done.

Even a system update to the same thing that was in place on Wall Street, oh, let's say, 25 years ago, would still be decades more current than what is in place now.

Bingo!

[ALL CIRCUITS GO]

yes,,, update the tote system..

I agree its the perception of impropriety

thanks

[rwwupl]

From review statement:

Additional improvements for all odds displays are anticipated in the near future.

Yes that is the answer.

Even though this bet was legal...the problem of the public perception of something wrong was agravated by the slowness and uncoordinated and differences in the display between the tote board and and the T.V. broadcast,computer video.

Mike Marten(CHRB), the author of the review above is aware of what is needed and indicates he thinks we can expect positive changes in the future. Public perception...is reality...we must improve the product presented to the public.

rw

[Irish Boy]

Beyond continuous, fluid updating, I'm not sure how this helps. Odds will jump each time the tote reloads, whether you set it to 30 seconds or one minute or whatever.

I think this is a problem that can never be fully solved. I'd have no problem with ending betting right at post time, but I know lots of bettors would insist that this was a scheme to deprive them of information, and you still wouldn't be sure of the final odds. There is no perfect fix,

[Kelso]

Originally Posted by GameTheory

You know, they did try that (at Churchill, I think) a few years ago. Everyone complained -- they wanted to see how the horses were acting loading in the gate or something -- and they changed it back. (Plus it costs them money the earlier the cut-off.)

My bet is the complaints were largely from the past-posters. (Yes, it is quite clear that it happens and that it happens frequently.)

It costs tracks money when they try to assure pool integrity because the past-posters take their late cash elsewhere. Of course, to the morons in track management, integrity and perceptions of same take a seat far back from today's handle ... while they concurrently whine that annual handle has been tanking for years.