Hollywood Park 8th race, 5/9/10 was it a set up?

[Igeteven]

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind.

[toussaud]

yes it was freaking set up.

are you happy?


BTW I had to chose between the 1 and the 5 and I chose the 5, but I gave the 1 a legit chance

start handicapping and stop whining.

[Igeteven]

Originally Posted by toussaud

yes it was freaking set up.

are you happy?


BTW I had to chose between the 1 and the 5 and I chose the 5, but I gave the 1 a legit chance

start handicapping and stop whining.

How, can you explain it, I did handicap the race, you tell me since you are the best handicapper around.

[Rise Over Run]

joemc44 had it!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=70070

[Igeteven]

Originally Posted by Rise Over Run

joemc44 had it!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=70070

I admit it, there are better people out there then me.

wow , that guy is good.

[ronsmac]

It's called steam. Insiders knew the horse was ready to roll. This has happened since the 30's. There are times conventional handicapping is lost.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

It's called steam. Insiders knew the horse was ready to roll. This has happened since the 30's. There are times conventional handicapping is lost.

I never wager on hollywod races but happened to see this one on tvg.Even the announcers were a bit flabbergasted and suggested he was an underlay at 8/1.Maiden specials are about the only races where i pay attention to tote action and morning line betdowns!I also pay attention if i make a maiden 20/1 and the public has him much lower,especially with firsters or second out or horses coming back after layoffs.

[menifee]

I don't understand why conventional handicapping couldn't pick this horse.

1. The horse had been running in maiden claimers on the fake stuff. In his last race he had run in a MSW downhill on the turf and had made the lead in that race through some pretty stiff fractions. He figured to make the lead or be pretty close to it.

2. The horse was part of an entry. It's entry mate had some of the strongest beyers. In fact its beyers were the second strongest in the race.

3. Weak rest of the field. Sometimes in those Hollywood turf races, you just need to make the lead. A lot of those horses, especially in maiden races can't pass each other in the stretch.

I don't think the race was set up.

[George Sands]

Originally Posted by menifee

I don't understand why conventional handicapping couldn't pick this horse.

1. The horse had been running in maiden claimers on the fake stuff. In his last race he had run in a MSW downhill on the turf and had made the lead in that race through some pretty stiff fractions. He figured to make the lead or be pretty close to it.

2. The horse was part of an entry. It's entry mate had some of the strongest beyers. In fact its beyers were the second strongest in the race.

Right. The winner had run on grass once--in his most recent race. He ran a Thoro-Graph figure of 10.5, a faster number than any other horse in the race had ever run in its career. His entrymate was also competitive with any other horse in the race. This string is completely insane. In fact, it reminds me of the insane strings I used to read on the Del Mar Fan Forum before I stopped reading that thing.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Igeteven

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind.

Yes. What's your problem?
1. # 1 Image and Likeness went down Santa Anita's hill last time out at clip of 44 seconds and stopped. Did he stop? Or was that just a work out??
2. Translating that into a flat race that would be 45 seconds.
3. In the last race he was given a Beyer of 66.
4. If he had kept going and won that Beyer would have been 76, assuming that you know how to translate races into hidden possibilities.
5. With the highest Beyer in the race as 75, why couldn't this player win??

I had the late Pick 3 and didn't think twice about that anyone would even question this winner. In fact, I even happened to tell a patron who asked me if # 1 was a play and I said : Why not? You're getting two for the price of one as it was part of an entry.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by menifee

I don't think the race was set up.

Agreed.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

It's called steam. Insiders knew the horse was ready to roll. This has happened since the 30's. There are times conventional handicapping is lost.

This is especially true in California.

I didn't play the HOL card but just ran the card and the first thing that comes across is the "HUGE" workout rating the horse gets and the equally large form number the horse gets in my software.

The way workouts are followed in California, I am thinking tons of people were all over this horse for that reason alone. You can buy several different workout tip sheets in California, not to mention the radio shows etc that talk about the races every day.

In California, this is an every day occurrence.

[David-LV]

Originally Posted by Igeteven

The horse # 1, that won should have gone at 30 to 1 odds, morning line was 15, drop to 8

A claimer going up in class to maidens special weight, the tote board showed something was wrong.

The horse won by day light.

Can anyone handicap the race and explain why he ran like the wind.

1-Cutback in distance from 6.5 to 6 after dueling for the lead in a 44.2 half his first start on turf in MSW $44.

2-Slight drop in class to MSW $41.

3-Big workout 7 days ago at HOL 5.0 in 59 flat.

4-A jockey that knows the horse, this was his 5th ride on the horse.

5-A horse that showed speed in 3 out of his last 4 starts.

6-A lack luster field of maidens.

__________
David-LV

[MaTH716]

No set up, just maybe the morning line was a tad high.


He went off as the 5th choice.
5 (favorite)-he was running back in Madien Specials while going to the turf for the first time.
3 (2nd choice)-4 out of his 5 last works were bullets, but he never hit the board before and was trying the weeds also for the first time.
8 (3rd choice)-Another first time turf horse, coming off a layoff. He seemed to be the lone closer in a race that looked like it had enough speed in it that it could melt down late.
6 (4th choice) Very well bred horse that should like the turf, but most likely going long.

The horse definitely fit. I just wish I was smarter to include him on my pick 4. It seemed to be a very wide open field and cases could be made for almost every horse. I do have to admit that I thought there was going to be a little more pressure early on. But he was the speed of the speed and anything close to his last race should have and did result in a win.

[cj]

This is how I had the race rated on my figures:

HOL 05/09/2010  R8   4:42   6.0f Turf 126  6/0 Md Sp Wt 41k   3+ 

2  Fionnaur               8-1  X1  56/ 60  |  44    70    55 |  58    83    77    34    67
1  Image and Likeness    15-1  X6  87/ 42     79    55    36    53    44 :  27
1A Wisest Cat            15-1  X0  61/ 79  :  73    74    47
3  Cragmont               7-2  X3  78/ 61     66 :  73    76
4  Take a Yard            8-1 1st   x/  x 
5  The Full Lavino        3-1  E3  66/ 73     69    70    59
6  Causeithertz           5-1 1st   x/  x 
7  Stormy Ambition       20-1  X4  71/ 15     35 |  37
8  Blazing                5-2  S2  80/ 69  :  72    83