Book - How to WIN the PICK 6 & Beulah Fortune 6

[Steven Kolb]

The Beulah Park 25 cent Fortune Pick 6...
-
I am updating the PICK 6 book, so - your thoughts on this wager will be appreciated.

Should I include a chapter about the Buelah Fortune Pick 6?

I'm thinking to write one, as it can't hurt. However...

Whoever came up with this idea is 90% brilliant and 10% questionable.

They hoped for a ton of carryovers. It's happened. As of today the pool is over $300K.

With the structure of the wager, my guess is that 70% of wagers are "pie in the sky" hoping that four or more super long shots win.

Most bettors are guessing; few handicapping. Lottery mentality.

Other small tracks see this and are probably thinking, "Why not?"

Now, after every carryover, it becomes less likely that anyone will hit it. I can see an $8,000,000 carryover with every longshot combo covered. Nobody can win. However, (again) the winnable carryover amount will be increasing along the way.

Eventually the pool will be feeding on itself - if that makes since - with everyone going after the secondary jackpot, knowing the big one is not winnable, yet still tossing a few bucks at super long shots, just in case.

The only hope here is that every leg has as many horses as possible. Then, maybe...

I haven't checked, but perhaps on the final day of the meet the entire jackpot will be distributed. I'll be playing

Is this wager good for the sport? It certainly is interesting.

Thanks ahead.

Steven Kolb
Author
How to WIN the PICK 6

[toetoe]

Steve,

By now they must be in gridlock, with competing syndicates buying (except for chalk) all six races every day, and/or sabotaging the bus delivering bettors to the track.

I would tersely rate this bet as equal in merit to an extended warranty on a new product, i.e. ... .

Think about it. Once it reaches critical pool size, it will only be taken seriously by fools whose only real hope is that all big bettors might abandon the bet. Now, six fields of 14 on Astrodirt --- okay, that's workable. However, six fields of 8, throwing out the first three favorites, would cost ~$15,000, a pittance to any saltworthy syndicate. Knowing it's almost mandatorily sharable, the big boys still wouldn't want to leave it to the pikers.

A standoff, and a very bad idea which is even worse in practice.


Or am I missing something ?

[Pace Cap'n]

Is the wager available online?

[nalley0710]

I live within walking distance of Beulah Park and taught myself handicapping and body language there. Its a very unique track. The management was always very innovative. It was purchased by the same people who are building a casino in close proximity. I would say that the track is soon to be extinct.

[formula_2002]

Unless I've completely blown the math, the value in the beu pick six seems to be not trying to hit the single ticket.
I have found the pick 6 payouts for mostly short priced horses to be huge
EXAMPLE 4-7-2010

race 	odds 	1/(ODDS+1)
3	0.9	0.53
4	1.2	0.45
5	1.6	0.38
6	1.1	0.48
7	26.5	0.04
8	2.5	0.29
	PROBABILITY	0.00358
	ODDS TO $1	279.58
	ODDS TO 25 CENTS	69.89
	PIC 6 25 CENT PAYOUT	2166.00

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Unless I've completely blown the math, the value in the beu pick six seems to be not trying to hit the single ticket.
I have found the pick 6 payouts for mostly short priced horses to be huge
EXAMPLE 4-7-2010

race 	odds 	1/(ODDS+1)
3	0.9	0.53
4	1.2	0.45
5	1.6	0.38
6	1.1	0.48
7	26.5	0.04
8	2.5	0.29
	PROBABILITY	0.00358
	ODDS TO $1	279.58
	ODDS TO 25 CENTS	69.89
	PIC 6 25 CENT PAYOUT	2166.00

yep, I did. I need to adjust probability to reflect track take-out, therefore;

race 	odds 	1/(ODDS+1)
3	0.9	0.43
4	1.2	0.37
5	1.6	0.31
6	1.1	0.39
7	26.5	0.03
8	2.5	0.23
	PROBABILITY	0.00103
	ODDS TO $1	968.13
	ODDS TO 25 CENTS	242.03
	PIC 6 25 CENT PAYOUT	2166.00

[trying2win]

Steven:

In the revamp of your book, I hope you rake the NYRA 'over the coals' for this despicable, shameful, obscene takeout policy on PICK 6 carryovers on their tracks... that is, they have a 16 % takeout on Pick 6 pools on non-carryover pools, but have an outrageous 26 % takeout on Pick 6 pools, in the event there is a carryover.

I wonder what some other PACE ADVANTAGE members think of this NYRA policy? Any words that seem to describe it?

Does any other racetrack have this kind of low-down form of substantially increased takeout on their Pick 6 Pool carryovers?

By the way, one can read this and other takeout information of NYRA tracks at their website at www.nyra.com ...then look at the menu on the left-hand side. It's under the title 'HANDICAPPING', then scroll down to the line 'NYRA Wagering' . Read it any weep as they say, about their rates of takeout on not just the PICK 6, but on some of the takeout rates on other gimmick bets, plus their shady policy on breakage rates.

T2W

[Rutgers]

Originally Posted by trying2win

In the revamp of your book, I hope you rake the NYRA 'over the coals' for this despicable, shameful, obscene takeout policy on PICK 6 carryovers on their tracks... that is, they have a 16 % takeout on Pick 6 pools on non-carryover pools, but have an outrageous 26 % takeout on Pick 6 pools, in the event there is a carryover.

I wonder what some other PACE ADVANTAGE members think of this NYRA policy? Any words that seem to describe it?

First, some background on the two takeouts.

Prior to 2001 the takeout was 25% on both carryover and non-carryover days. In 2001, at NYRA’s urging legislation was passed which lowered the takeout on non-carryover days to 20%. Later in 2004, at further urging by NYRA, they were given legislative approval to have the flexibility to lower the takeout to 15% on non-carryover days with the approval the NYSRWB. NYRA then lowered the takeout to 15%. As part of the NYCOTB takeover by the NY State the takeouts (against the urgings of NYRA) for carryovers and non-carryovers were each raised 1% thru legislation to the current levels.

As you can see, it not really an increased takeout on carry-over days, but a decreased takeout on non-carryover days.

Based on that every Pick 6 player should like the policy. Even if you do not play on the non-carryover, the lower takeout makes any carryover larger. And if you do play on a non-carryover day, you are paying a lower price (takeout) on a wager that offers less value as compared to a carryover day.

This ties in with what Dana Parham was talking about in his Meadowlands interview. That tracks should have lower takeout/breakage on wagers that offer less value. I do not know of any other track that does this.

And while I would love it if the takeout on carryover days was also 16%, with an average number of combination over 200K and new money in the pool usually in an amount in excess of 4.5 times the carryover, plus the carryover money, there is plenty of value in the wager at a takeout rate of 26%.

Originally Posted by trying2win

plus their shady policy on breakage rates.

I do not understand what you mean by shady. They have them clearly listed on the website. And here again, the breakage is set by NY State law, not NYRA. (It should be noted that the law was put into effect due the efforts of Steven Crist when he was with NYRA.)

If you are referring to the “sliding scale” that was done to lessen the negative impact of the breakage rates on the player.

As part of the political negotiations in order to get nickel breakage (instead of the dime breakage) on the lower payouts they had to allow for higher breakage at the higher payouts. But the dime you save on the lower payouts is a higher percentage of your profit, then 40 cents or 80 cents you lose at the higher payouts. When you factor in that most players will have a smaller payout multiple time (ie.$200 win bet) vs. usually having a $500 dollar payout for $1 or $2, the favorable effect of the "sliding scale" on the horseplayer is multiplied.

So overall, I like the NYRA policies in regards to their Pick 6 takeouts and breakage and I wish more tracks would adopt them.

[formula_2002]

Perhaps a more fitting title would be "WHY PLAY THE PIC 6?"
Most every time I calculate the fair value for the pic 6 payout, it indicates so little value (except perhaps for the BEU pic 6).

here is the value for the last 5 days at Aqu.
1 is a fair value, less than 1 is unfair

04-11-2010, .914
04-10-2010, .179
04-09-2010, .183
04-08-2010, .249
04-07-2010, .228

see attached for backup

[Robert Goren]

How does this Beulah thing end? Is there a mandatory payout the the last day of the meet? At this point it is highly unlikely that will be a combo that could be a solo winner. It make no sense to touch this thing until there is a mandatory payout. JMO

[rrbauer]

Originally Posted by Pace Cap'n

Is the wager available online?

At ADW's that carry Beulah. Youbet, PTC, etc.

[rrbauer]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

How does this Beulah thing end? Is there a mandatory payout the the last day of the meet? At this point it is highly unlikely that will be a combo that could be a solo winner. It make no sense to touch this thing until there is a mandatory payout. JMO

Daily pools are large enough now that payouts are good even if you're not the only winner. Agree that it won't be hit by a single ticket at this stage of the game. Meet ends May 1 and I'm guessing that they will pay it out then as a "regular" P6. Full-pool payout method other than to a single ticket holder must be approved by the state racing commission. 25-cent bet gets you decent coverage without emptying the bank account. However, the quality of the horses there makes for more than a few head-scratching results.

[Steven Kolb]

Beulah will empty their Fortune 6 bank account on Kentucky Derby day.

Online I use Youbet.com and Twinspires.com

Youbet does not have a contract for the $0.25 wager. They do take a $1 wager on the Beulah Pick 6. I like Youbet, but I wouldn't make a wager there for this opportunity. However, if you did... you'd win it 4X. Hmmmm... _ (Let's not be silly.)
___
Twinspires does take the 25 cent wager. I'm sure there are several other sites that accept it as well.

If you do wager online, make sure you have an account open with a company that takes the two-bit bet... ahead of time. Don't wait till 5 minutes before Leg A starts.

S. Kolb

[David-LV]

It is hard to believe that Las Vegas does not take this bet. Something to do with their computer software can't handle the 25 cent bet. I guess that what they call progress.

________
David-LV

[infrontby1]

Wow,

We have to wait until KY Derby Day until the pool is distributed.

That's one hell of interest Ohio is earning with over 15 days of close to a half a million sitting in some account, I'm sure.