Hi Guys, my first post.
I came upon this great site whilst looking for a formula to determine the probable odds of a horse finishing in third position. I am currently setting up an Excel program for a possible foray into the exotic wagering.
I was astounded at the remarkable intelligence that there existed in the forum by quite a number of members.!! I found a lot of discussion about the Harville and Henery formulas and I think that the consensus of opinion has fallen well and truly on the side of Henery. Having been convinced I have since stumbled upon a 2005 paper that has concluded in the results summary... 'Furthermore, we can compare the Henery and Harville models in isolation. The likelihood ratio Lhe/Lh reveals that the Harville model is statistically better than the Henery model (significance level α = 0.05). In summary, Henery produced results that were largely inferior compared to Harville and the exacta pool, while Harville was slightly more competitive.'
I will attach the paper for your comments and discussion. I will also seek some help with the setup of the program if people are willing.
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity" - Seneca