Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion
User Name

Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread
Old 11-16-2009, 12:03 AM   #1
Never say die
Registered User
Never say die's Avatar
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Hervey Bay,Queensland,Australia.
Posts: 1
vCash: 400
Harville, Henery and Exacta Pool Models.

Hi Guys, my first post.
I came upon this great site whilst looking for a formula to determine the probable odds of a horse finishing in third position. I am currently setting up an Excel program for a possible foray into the exotic wagering.
I was astounded at the remarkable intelligence that there existed in the forum by quite a number of members.!! I found a lot of discussion about the Harville and Henery formulas and I think that the consensus of opinion has fallen well and truly on the side of Henery. Having been convinced I have since stumbled upon a 2005 paper that has concluded in the results summary... 'Furthermore, we can compare the Henery and Harville models in isolation. The likelihood ratio Lhe/Lh reveals that the Harville model is statistically better than the Henery model (significance level α = 0.05). In summary, Henery produced results that were largely inferior compared to Harville and the exacta pool, while Harville was slightly more competitive.'
I will attach the paper for your comments and discussion. I will also seek some help with the setup of the program if people are willing.
Thank you.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf EXACTA.pdf (622.6 KB, 105 views)
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity" - Seneca
Never say die is offline   Reply With Quote Reply

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:05 AM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1999 - 2016 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed @ 1024x768 Resolution Or Higher