Handifast and his two brains - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Handiman · 08-22-2009, 12:26 AM

I have been playing Del Mar daily mostly for fun. But at the same time I have been thinking about programming too.

But today I had a pretty bad day and other than having a blood test, spent most all day in bed. But got up this evening to eat and thought I'd check out how I would have done at DM.

To be honest and not very modest

, one half of my brain is pretty smart. I've taught myself to program in a couple of languages and math calculations come fairly easily to me. I also have taught myself to build websites. So I feel pretty good about myself as a whole.

Now for the other half of my brain, I believe it maybe dumb as dirt! That may actually be an understatement. Doug has come up with a very cool program, with which I was able to add some extra usability. But when it comes to handicapping with it, I might as well be wearing a diaper and eating pablum. I have hit some very nice paying horses as I have posted previously. But overall, I am in the special needs class.

Today, using Handifast and looking at just the FAST column in the 6th race, the top horses were 5 and 9 I believe with tied number. The 9 went off at 49-1 and won paying over $100. And in another race the top fast horse paid $10.40 I think it was. But then, using the point ranking's horses I would have missed those two winners but hit a couple others that paid much less. So what this long diatribe is really about is me crying out for help on how to best use this great program!

So please chime in and tell me if you don't mind, how you are best using this very expensive program? Because my left and right brain seem to be at war and no one is winning!

Handi

Hoofless_Wonder · 08-22-2009, 12:49 AM

Hi Handi - hope you feel better.

I've only used this "expensive" tool on a couple of cards each at Saratoga, Ellis Park, and Del Mar. The races I find it useful are the ones with lower-priced claimers with well established form, where the majority of the field has their recent efforts at or near the same distance and surface as the race today. Then, if both the Handi and Chrome portions of the tool point to similar horses, they're usually in the mix. Finally, now that it's narrowed down to 2, 3 or 4 horses in the field, I let the tote board make my final selections and play the horses with the longest odds.

When I handicap a race of claimers like this, I usually only have a couple I can toss with confidence, and then I might as well throw darts to come up with the ones to play. So the "Handi-Chrome" angle, with proper odds, can make the race playable.

I missed the 9 horse in the sixth today at Del Mar - but had a win/place bet on the runner up (#10) at 8-1. D'oh!

Thanks for your contribution to the tools! Hopefully I can come up with an angle to achieve positive ROI....

AAcoolguy · 08-22-2009, 12:53 AM

How long have we been using FAST/Handifast? I have read other threads here on PA about some programs having a learning curve of months or years! You will develope a sense of what works best over time I'm sure.
As for how I'm using it, right now I am trying to incorporate the FAST number into another method for odds line making. I have been bouncing around using both programs and won some and lost more, so I have stopped betting except for one race a day. I know the FAST numbers are good and if I can stay focused on one method for longer than a couple of days I can build a great method around them.
That being said, I have asked Doug about how many lengths per FAST point. I know he's very busy and am still waiting patiently for his reply. I know you figure things a little different, do you have any idea how many FAST points per length in your calculations? Ok so keep at it!

douglasw32 · 08-22-2009, 09:21 AM

Handi I feel your pain.

This is what works for me in just about every race... Not saying I make the correct choice at the window with my money, but if I want to look like the "Wizard" in front of all of the boys at OTB then this is golden,

I open the Summary

(whatever one I have currently tweaked, of course I play NY tracks not Cali so not sure if that might be the difference, and I am done tweaking unless I am looking to be dicorced soon, and I am not .. so that should make this part easier)

I mostly do all of this ahead of time so I need to repeat it if there is a scratch, I usually hit the hoighest purse of the day as my main race.

I am still torn as to betting Ray's exacta maker with 3 horses, dutching two to win (both of these require you to be at the post and I usually need to bet in advance) so what I usually do is bet 1 horse to Win/Place sometimes Win with an exacta as a place bet.

So anyway back to what I started to explain.

I look at the summary, start with the top 2... look at the race shape, using the running style, earlsy speed pints and the AVP (pace of the horses style)

If I have a bunch of close avp's with 6 or 7 early points and some e/p's with 5 or 6 etc, I look for the P or S horse to get the job done.

I look closely at the SP3/SP2/SP1 and make sure that a BAD turf or AW race is not throwing the total into chaos. making the 5th or 6th ranked FAST total usable.

I pop open your program, and I start sorting.

Left to Right...

Anyone that is top Ranked, that I did not consider (not one of my top 4 on the summary) I go back and take another look at.

Any that I do settle on , I really need to sort to the top 2 ro 3 (watch for ties) in the SP3/SP2 or SP1 areas, looking only at the same Surface for comparison, turf-aw, etc when possible.

Now after doing all that I will have a few horses that I know are going to be there. and probably the same 3 that LITFIN has in the DRF.

Thing is I will have a "Feel" for what I am about to see happen and can make a better wager than just looking at the consensus.

Now if the "Feel" I have, is only mentioned once in the NY post selections, or no where at all and is going off at odds way above what I would expect.

I usually back off the bet, only to watch it win and pay double digits

To the point where most of the people who I know and talk to ask me who I like, and wait for me to change my mind, then bet the original one I liked. They are all doing ery well with this angle....

As for how many points per... it is not really possible with the handi part since the ranking is based on giving weight to the figures.

but in the summary, I would hazard a guess... it is 3 pts/per if every horse is in good form, runnign on a surface they have all ran on int he last race, going a distance they have all run before and are all over 3, not for sale and have won more then 2 or 3 races... hard to say since it is based on some pretty big form angles.

douglasw32 · 08-22-2009, 10:14 AM

Fo instance...

Alabama Stakes, Saratoga, Sunday the 22nd

MILWAUKEE APPEAL <- Top Handi Rank.

CARELESS JEWEL <- Top Summary Rank.

I would take a shot that the Race Shape (As I see it) and the Pace going 10F would be more friendly to a lesser ranked contender.

WYNNING RIDE. Ranked 3rd on summary, 4th on Handi

zgplp · 08-22-2009, 02:23 PM

Handi,

I guess we all have our up and down days using this software but my down days are caused by my own lack of discipline and overbetting...I am smart enough to know that there is no Holy Grail for Handicapping... I am a an avid sheet player with good results and this program comes real close

My best days are when I follow these rules...and sit on my hands

Don'ts:

1. I do not play cheap tracks

2. I stay away from short fields

3. I do not play any race where this is no value

Do's:

1. I look for big fields

2. I compare the summary report top 4 with the Handi Top 4...if these match up it is usually on the money....but will still do a sort using Handi to see if there is a horse that may need to be included/eliminated

3. If they do not match up then I sort with Handi and look at the surface, Jockey, Trainer, etc. and see which horses I should add/eliminate from the top 4 between the two programs.

4. I then look at the Daily Racing Form for my own peace of mind...Haha

I only play exotics...again If there is no value I will pass, if there is value then I play...with my betting style the only way I can make money is have the favorite run second or off the board totally

believe it or not my favorite play is the super Hi5, Calder, DelMar, AP, Laurel to name a couple...the return for the investment is great and I have been able to hit a couple of very nice ones with this program... including yesterdays at AP

I don't think I would be willing to handicap for a living but I am still in the plus column for the year which makes this a very enjoyable hobby...Doug has done a great job with software and your sorting tool is a very valuable asset...Thank You both!

Regarding your health, take 10 minutes and Google Dr. Dean Ornish many hospitals across the country offer his program...my cardiologist turned me on to it 8 years ago and I have never felt better...Best Regards Z

dartman51 · 08-22-2009, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by douglasw32

Fo instance...

Alabama Stakes, Saratoga, Sunday the 22nd

MILWAUKEE APPEAL <- Top Handi Rank.

CARELESS JEWEL <- Top Summary Rank.

I would take a shot that the Race Shape (As I see it) and the Pace going 10F would be more friendly to a lesser ranked contender.

WYNNING RIDE. Ranked 3rd on summary, 4th on Handi

Careless Jewel has TOP SR, and has IMPROVED in each of last 3.
Funny Moon has ALSO improved in last 3, and his last was on a MUDDY track, which today's track is. At least for now. He also has the HIGHEST MY track #. These would be my TOP 2 CONTENDERS in this race.

AAcoolguy · 08-22-2009, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by douglasw32

As for how many points per... it is not really possible with the handi part since the ranking is based on giving weight to the figures.

but in the summary, I would hazard a guess... it is 3 pts/per if every horse is in good form, runnign on a surface they have all ran on int he last race, going a distance they have all run before and are all over 3, not for sale and have won more then 2 or 3 races... hard to say since it is based on some pretty big form angles.

That should be good enough to get me in the ball park, I can adjust as needed. I am really going to try to focus on the odds line and stop betting too many races, discipline, discipline!

dartman51 · 08-22-2009, 02:44 PM

I also like Milwaukee Appeal and Wynning Ride. Milwaukee Appeal has the BEST SR at the DIST, although it was @ WO, an AW track. Wynning Ride is an improving horse, and could get a piece of the action. If you're looking for a PRICE to fill in the TRI or SUPER, you might want to use the 1 Sweet And Flawless as he will be comming Late.

douglasw32 · 08-22-2009, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by douglasw32

Fo instance...

Alabama Stakes, Saratoga, Sunday the 22nd

MILWAUKEE APPEAL <- Top Handi Rank.

CARELESS JEWEL <- Top Summary Rank.

I would take a shot that the Race Shape (As I see it) and the Pace going 10F would be more friendly to a lesser ranked contender.

WYNNING RIDE. Ranked 3rd on summary, 4th on Handi

I agree with Dartmans rules, that is exactly how I see it.

Handi, this was a perfect example of me trying to out think the sheet !

It is not the program as you have said, it is the user...I know it was an ugly race, but still my whole thought on the pace was wrong, or went wrong?

Once Be fair took the lead and the top 2 layed right off it was over =)

In this case the exacta box and a $30.00 payoff was a better wager than my Win/Place.

It is "at the windows" handicapping...that kills us, not the handicapping done by the program. I bet this on the way back at a western OTB in buffalo only to have to hear about how stupid I am for the next 3 hours home =)

from the "Brain" behind the program in the passengers seat.

douglasw32 · 08-23-2009, 11:07 PM

After a bad day at sar that was completely turned around with one key wager late at del mar, I found the energy to make sure that a card of fts and a sloppy track will hopefully not burry me in the future.

An update is a comin' =)

Handiman · 08-25-2009, 01:12 AM

Update....

My programming is going to be quite slow for a while. Went to the Dr. today and the results weren't good. My heart is getting weaker.....and now it is not beating correctly. One side beats and then the other side beats. My new valve is leaking too. But that is not too bad says the dr.

I go for an angiogram in a week and a half and the doc hopes they will be able to see what is causing my heart to enlarge and not beat in sync. If they can't stop the weakening the future looks a bit dim.

I will be sleeping a lot and programming some. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Handi

AAcoolguy · 08-25-2009, 03:42 AM

My thoughts are with you Handi.

dartman51 · 08-25-2009, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by douglasw32

After a bad day at sar that was completely turned around with one key wager late at del mar, I found the energy to make sure that a card of fts and a sloppy track will hopefully not burry me in the future.

An update is a comin' =)

I hope you are talking about the 10th @ DMR. Handi's program had the 6 at 6-1 fair odds, went off at 29-1 and paid $61.60 to win. Also had the exacta and tri, with the 6 over the other 3 of it's top 4 picks. I played the exacta but unfortunately not the tri.

dartman51 · 08-25-2009, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handiman

Update....

My programming is going to be quite slow for a while. Went to the Dr. today and the results weren't good. My heart is getting weaker.....and now it is not beating correctly. One side beats and then the other side beats. My new valve is leaking too. But that is not too bad says the dr.

I go for an angiogram in a week and a half and the doc hopes they will be able to see what is causing my heart to enlarge and not beat in sync. If they can't stop the weakening the future looks a bit dim.

I will be sleeping a lot and programming some. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Handi

Hang in there Handiman, my family and I are praying for a speedy recovery for you. Thank you for the work you've done on the program. It's AWESOME.