West Virginia Derby

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Race 8 - 5:45 PM
West Virginia Derby (Grade II)
One And One Eighth Miles
1 Soul Warrior (KY) 3/C LA* M Mena 111 S M Asmussen
2 Mine That Bird (KY) 3/G L M E Smith 122 B L Woolley, Jr.
3 Awesome Rhythm (KY) 3/C L J McAleney 113 J A Ross
4 Sunday Sunrise (KY) 3/C LA* C J Lanerie 111 S M Asmussen
5 Big Drama (FL) 3/C L E Coa 111 D Fawkes
6 Monty's Best (FL) 3/C LA* E R Da Silva 113 R Baker

A - Coupled Entries - Soul Warrior, Sunday Sunrise


I find it hilarious that just because Big Drama has not won a race of 1 mile or over this year, he gets to carry 111 lbs. Mine That Bird gets to carry 122lbs. Not much speed in here either. Seems like people will be throwing away some money on Mine That Bird. Big Drama's best distance may not be 1-1/8 Miles but this kind of race seems similar to the Hard Spun / Street Sense matchup when Hard Spun got a slow pace and got the best of him. Although Big Drama will also be bet hard, he'll still be good enough to bet considering that derby winners are always overbet.

[RockHardTen1985]

Big Drama has to win this. He's getting 11 pounds and clearly has the tactical edge. I dont see how you could make any case for MTB considering the circumstances.

[Onion Monster]

I can think of two reasons: Eibar Coa.

I envision Coa reigning in Big Drama and trying to moderate the pace. This will bunch up the field by the top of the stretch and Mine that Bird will be much closer to the pace.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

I can think of two reasons: Eibar Coa.

I envision Coa reigning in Big Drama and trying to moderate the pace.

I can't recall anyone ever making the argument that a slow pace is going to help the deep closer...

[Robert Goren]

MTB may or may not win this race. But it will be about how well he fires, not about weight or how slow the pace is or isn't. A slow pace will make a winner out a horse who is 30 lenghts poorer than another. One thing is for sure the time will be fast since MTR always packs the track for this race.

[Onion Monster]

That's because most people assume a slow pace, on dirt, hurts the closers. More often than not, I've found, a slow pace can hurt the early runner if they have to deal with horses near them. To me, pressure is more important than time.

Some jocks never get this: Coa and Rajiv Maragh come to mind. They try to rate and moderate the pace on early runners. This can work on turf, where horses have to deal with tightly packed fields and traffic regularly, and on dirt when the early runner maintains a length plus advantage into the stretch. But at MNR, I would much rather have a local jock who knows that the best way to win on dirt with a speed horse is to grind the field into submission and not try to save your mount for a stretch kick.

[Bison]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

One thing is for sure the time will be fast since MTR always packs the track for this race.

If you watched MNR this week, you will have seen many more closers than usual winning. Looks like they are trying to set the track up for MTB.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

That's because most people assume a slow pace, on dirt, hurts the closers. More often than not, I've found, a slow pace can hurt the early runner if they have to deal with horses near them. To me, pressure is more important than time.

Even if correct, this sets up the race for a close presser, not a deep closer.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

That's because most people assume a slow pace, on dirt, hurts the closers. More often than not, I've found, a slow pace can hurt the early runner if they have to deal with horses near them. To me, pressure is more important than time.

Some jocks never get this: Coa and Rajiv Maragh come to mind. They try to rate and moderate the pace on early runners. This can work on turf, where horses have to deal with tightly packed fields and traffic regularly, and on dirt when the early runner maintains a length plus advantage into the stretch. But at MNR, I would much rather have a local jock who knows that the best way to win on dirt with a speed horse is to grind the field into submission and not try to save your mount for a stretch kick.

that's the way i have alway's viewed things. if you got a speed horse use him, run the other's off their feet. if they catch you more power to them.

as far as riders knowing the track, that is alway's a big plus. i have seen some awful rides lately, one of them calvin borel on rachel in the preakness, she won despite the ride.

go rachel go this sunday in new jersey!!

[ghostyapper]

Originally Posted by ryesteve

Even if correct, this sets up the race for a close presser, not a deep closer.

This depends on the horse. If a presser does not have the explosive acceleration of a closer, the closer will have the advantage when the field is bunched up.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by ghostyapper

the closer will have the advantage when the field is bunched up.

Except a slow pace doesn't always mean the field will be bunched. I've seen plenty of races lately where they go 6f in 1:16, but the closer is still in his customary position 10-12 lengths in back of the leader.

[joanied]

rather a poor field, IMO...and it's gotta be either Big Drama or MTB in the winner's circle...I would love to see MTB win this.
MTB
Big Drama
Sunday Sunrise
or...
Big Drama
MTB
Sunday Sunrise

Can't wait

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Onion Monster

That's because most people assume a slow pace, on dirt, hurts the closers. More often than not, I've found, a slow pace can hurt the early runner if they have to deal with horses near them. To me, pressure is more important than time.

Some jocks never get this: Coa and Rajiv Maragh come to mind. They try to rate and moderate the pace on early runners. This can work on turf, where horses have to deal with tightly packed fields and traffic regularly, and on dirt when the early runner maintains a length plus advantage into the stretch. But at MNR, I would much rather have a local jock who knows that the best way to win on dirt with a speed horse is to grind the field into submission and not try to save your mount for a stretch kick.

This is a very good post. What is really the trouble for deep closers is a uncontested lead in a solid pace that does not back up, ie the horse running them off their feet, try making up 15 in that case.

The Riley Tucker race was a good example at Saratoga today, never got clear and comfortable but he should have been able to clear those, and finished way up the track.

I love front runners like Azeri, Rachael Alexandra, and Holy Bull, they just ran fast and kept going.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by ryesteve

Except a slow pace doesn't always mean the field will be bunched. I've seen plenty of races lately where they go 6f in 1:16, but the closer is still in his customary position 10-12 lengths in back of the leader.

yes some jocks just don't have clock in their head at all. i don't see that being a problem with smith though. i really like drama, but i'm wondering if he's gonna be overbet judging by posts. theres a good chance he'll stop after a mile though. this will be his true test as to if he can get a route or not. he does have classy speed.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Big Drama has to win this. He's getting 11 pounds and clearly has the tactical edge. I dont see how you could make any case for MTB considering the circumstances.

EVERYBODY likes Big Drama to win this. The reasons to prefer him over the higher profile horse are so painfully obvious that, by post time, it may well be Big Drama who is overbet. He is the ultimate wise guy pick.