EXACTA PAYOUTS

[punteray]

Is there a formula(s) to compute the probable payout of an exacta based on the horses odds?

Ray Scalise

[markgoldie]

Try this thread. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...acta+probables

[46zilzal]

Since the exotics are a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POOL there is often no correlations between the win odds and the exotic payouts.

Years ago at old Bowie, before the exotic payouts were shown on the TV screens, in a race where two horses shared a common name (i.e. My Pro and Our Pro) many hooked this up together as a "hunch bet" and in the win pool they were soemthing like 12/1 and 6/1 respectively. They ran one two and the exotic payout was really low, around $34.00 and there was a near riot, yet that was the real payout in the exotic pool.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Since the exotics are a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POOL there is often no correlations between the win odds and the exotic payouts.

That's a pretty extreme statement. There will ALWAYS be correlation between the win odds and the exotic payouts... the question is how much correlation, and which one is the more efficient pool.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by ryesteve

That's a pretty extreme statement. There will ALWAYS be correlation between the win odds and the exotic payouts... the question is how much correlation, and which one is the more efficient pool.

Always????

I sat two days with the head of the Canadian Parimutuel Agency ( and viewed his computer following the betting) and he showed me that is NOT the case all the time but you can believe what you want as his algorithms, reflecting all the off track betting that day, showed what I stated: they are OFTEN mutually exclusive to one another as many large bets in one pool are not reflected in the other at all.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Always????

Yes. I believe your impression of what "no correlation" means isn't accurate. You will never see pools such that the win pool and the exacta pool are unrelated. Even if mass hysteria broke out and caused the public to bet a race completely irrationally, there are so many other people monitoring pools in search of what they believe are inefficiencies, there would be a massive correction in the last minute of betting, thus eliminating the random relationship between the two pools.

[Tom]

What was the coefficient of correlation for that pool you were shown?

[Greyfox]

Over 1,000 races there will be a positive correlation between odds and exactas.

Having said that, I once saw a friend win an exacta.
The winner paid $ 75.00 and change.
The second place horse paid $ 15.00 or so.
The $ 1 exacta payout was a mere $ 78.00.
We thought that maybe the computer guys had missed a decimal.
Yes they are independent pools.
Yes there are anomalies like the one I showed above.
But Yes - the correlation will be positive.

[punteray]

THANKS LOADS!!!!

That did the trick

Ray

[Pace Cap'n]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Always????

I sat two days with the head of the Canadian Parimutuel Agency ( and viewed his computer following the betting) and he showed me that is NOT the case all the time but you can believe what you want as his algorithms, reflecting all the off track betting that day, showed what I stated: they are OFTEN mutually exclusive to one another as many large bets in one pool are not reflected in the other at all.

Sample size??

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Pace Cap'n

Sample size??

The regulator explained that the two pools are OFTEN, his words, Often not correlated particularly when it comes in off site.

In this jurisdiction, that occurred more with harnes wagering than T-bred

This man has worked the numbers for years and I don't think he would make it up

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

The regulator explained that the two pools are OFTEN, his words, Often not correlated particularly when it comes in off site.

In this jurisdiction, that occurred more with harnes wagering than T-bred

This man has worked the numbers for years and I don't think he would make it up

Cof C?

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

This man has worked the numbers for years and I don't think he would make it up

I don't think he's making it up either... I think he's mischaracterizing the data, and you're misunderstanding what he's saying.

Phrases like "particularly when it comes in off-site" doesn't even make sense in the context of what we're talking about. We're talking about >the pool<, not the 80 bucks some random hub might be contributing to it.

[PaceAdvantage]

46 sometimes has trouble with obvious concepts. Like the time in that thread about Genetic Algorithms, when he went into a rant about genomes and breeding traits and all sorts of stuff related to actual horse breeding and DNA.

That's why I often wonder aloud if he isn't some grand A.I. experiment clearly stuck in the beta test stage....

[Bruddah]

that's why I often wonder aloud if he isn't some grand A.I. experiment clearly stuck in the beta test stage....[/QUOTE]

And I thought he was Mr Data of Star Trek fame, with infected machine oil coursing through his veins. Urr uh tubing!